Simon Marlow
@simon12.bsky.social
Labour market, health and work, econometrics, operational research, maths/physics, history and tennis. Leeds based.
Reposted by Simon Marlow
Immigration salience has less to do with aggregate Immigration numbers than
- visibility of boats & asylum > visas
- general vibes about integration
- elite cues from media & political discourse in shaping public perceptions
This is more true when immigration is falling then when it is rising
- visibility of boats & asylum > visas
- general vibes about integration
- elite cues from media & political discourse in shaping public perceptions
This is more true when immigration is falling then when it is rising
December 21, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Immigration salience has less to do with aggregate Immigration numbers than
- visibility of boats & asylum > visas
- general vibes about integration
- elite cues from media & political discourse in shaping public perceptions
This is more true when immigration is falling then when it is rising
- visibility of boats & asylum > visas
- general vibes about integration
- elite cues from media & political discourse in shaping public perceptions
This is more true when immigration is falling then when it is rising
Reposted by Simon Marlow
The North / South gap in growth spending, in areas like transport, has declined in the most recent data.
Read more detail on this and recent bus usage statistics below.
👇
Read more detail on this and recent bus usage statistics below.
👇
In other news, new statistics show that the gap between what government spends on economic growth in the North and South has also been closing.
In 2024-25, the per person spending gap was at the lowest level in the last five years.
3/4
In 2024-25, the per person spending gap was at the lowest level in the last five years.
3/4
December 14, 2025 at 12:36 PM
The North / South gap in growth spending, in areas like transport, has declined in the most recent data.
Read more detail on this and recent bus usage statistics below.
👇
Read more detail on this and recent bus usage statistics below.
👇
Reposted by Simon Marlow
Includes me exposing the myth that Cambridge somehow earned its way into its leadership position in UK life sciences. It didn't. Leeds was in the lead, and then the Medical Research Council in London picked Cambridge and London as winners because it was their mates.
December 12, 2025 at 1:53 AM
Includes me exposing the myth that Cambridge somehow earned its way into its leadership position in UK life sciences. It didn't. Leeds was in the lead, and then the Medical Research Council in London picked Cambridge and London as winners because it was their mates.
Reposted by Simon Marlow
According to a new court filing, the Trump administration has a six-page list of banned words that Head Start locations are forbidden from using when describing their programs.
Among the censored words: "disability," "race," "women," "trauma," "Gulf of Mexico." Short thread with the full list. 🧵
Among the censored words: "disability," "race," "women," "trauma," "Gulf of Mexico." Short thread with the full list. 🧵
December 10, 2025 at 11:51 PM
According to a new court filing, the Trump administration has a six-page list of banned words that Head Start locations are forbidden from using when describing their programs.
Among the censored words: "disability," "race," "women," "trauma," "Gulf of Mexico." Short thread with the full list. 🧵
Among the censored words: "disability," "race," "women," "trauma," "Gulf of Mexico." Short thread with the full list. 🧵
Reposted by Simon Marlow
The EPA has removed references about humans causing climate change from its website. No US government website can be trusted for science information.
December 10, 2025 at 4:06 PM
Reposted by Simon Marlow
Just imagining how much better it would be if ALL news stories about vaccine-preventable illnesses were illustrated with pictures of people with the disease, not pictures of needle injections. If you must show something that people will find scary & unpleasant, make it the disease, not the cure.
I'm so tired of measles.
I'm also tired of people using needle shots on stories like this.
Show what measles looks like.
I'm also tired of people using needle shots on stories like this.
Show what measles looks like.
Gallatin Co. reports 2nd measles case, warns of exposure sites nbcmontana.com/news/local/g...
December 2, 2025 at 4:40 AM
Just imagining how much better it would be if ALL news stories about vaccine-preventable illnesses were illustrated with pictures of people with the disease, not pictures of needle injections. If you must show something that people will find scary & unpleasant, make it the disease, not the cure.
Reposted by Simon Marlow
Lies, damned lies and the Telegraph. They posted CSJ figures using an outrageously false comparison of 2 cases. It claimed a benefits family were better off by £18k than a working household when the real figure was £16k worse off. The details benefitsinthefuture.com #benefits #budget
Benefits in the Future – Welfare reform commentary and analysis
Welfare reform commentary and analysis
benefitsinthefuture.com
December 1, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Lies, damned lies and the Telegraph. They posted CSJ figures using an outrageously false comparison of 2 cases. It claimed a benefits family were better off by £18k than a working household when the real figure was £16k worse off. The details benefitsinthefuture.com #benefits #budget
Reposted by Simon Marlow
This week's post: Expertise, Government, the Media and Covid mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/expe...
Why did the media hold Johnson to account for allowing lockdown parties in No.10, but did not hold him to account for allowing tens of thousands of preventable deaths from Covid?
Why did the media hold Johnson to account for allowing lockdown parties in No.10, but did not hold him to account for allowing tens of thousands of preventable deaths from Covid?
Expertise, Government, the Media and Covid
It is now generally (although not universally) accepted that those of us who campaigned vigorously against the government’s auster...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
November 27, 2025 at 9:16 AM
This week's post: Expertise, Government, the Media and Covid mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/expe...
Why did the media hold Johnson to account for allowing lockdown parties in No.10, but did not hold him to account for allowing tens of thousands of preventable deaths from Covid?
Why did the media hold Johnson to account for allowing lockdown parties in No.10, but did not hold him to account for allowing tens of thousands of preventable deaths from Covid?
Reposted by Simon Marlow
I think it's time to post this again (since the thresholds have been frozen).
www.geogebra.org/m/p97htgc3
[please note this for INCOME TAX only]
www.geogebra.org/m/p97htgc3
[please note this for INCOME TAX only]
It's almost a new tax year. Here's my visualisation of how income tax works (or did in 2023-24).
Explainer vid: youtu.be/zXJCyffu8Og
Interactive version: www.geogebra.org/m/p97htgc3
Explainer vid: youtu.be/zXJCyffu8Og
Interactive version: www.geogebra.org/m/p97htgc3
November 26, 2025 at 4:18 PM
I think it's time to post this again (since the thresholds have been frozen).
www.geogebra.org/m/p97htgc3
[please note this for INCOME TAX only]
www.geogebra.org/m/p97htgc3
[please note this for INCOME TAX only]
Reposted by Simon Marlow
This guy with his insights was president of Harvard when I was on the junior faculty
It was not a pleasant time to be a female economist at Harvard
It was not a pleasant time to be a female economist at Harvard
Insights from Larry Summers
"I observed that half the IQ In world was possessed by women without mentioning they are more than 51 percent of population..."
"I observed that half the IQ In world was possessed by women without mentioning they are more than 51 percent of population..."
November 12, 2025 at 9:18 PM
This guy with his insights was president of Harvard when I was on the junior faculty
It was not a pleasant time to be a female economist at Harvard
It was not a pleasant time to be a female economist at Harvard
Reposted by Simon Marlow
"Partition is a very complicated story. Many people have tried to tell it before, but this is far and away the best book I’ve read on Partition."
fivebooks.com/best-books/w...
fivebooks.com/best-books/w...
India, Ancient and Modern
The award-winning writer selects five books on India and says that the Mahabharata, eight times the length of the Bible, is one of the great works of literature of mankind - and every bit as good as…
fivebooks.com
November 8, 2025 at 2:00 AM
"Partition is a very complicated story. Many people have tried to tell it before, but this is far and away the best book I’ve read on Partition."
fivebooks.com/best-books/w...
fivebooks.com/best-books/w...
Reposted by Simon Marlow
Every month for the last 77 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated Americans' unemployment rate
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
Here's the planned BLS data release schedule for Nov 2025.
On Tues, it couldn't release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data.
This morning, it couldn't release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data.
Tomorrow, it can't release Oct 2025 #JobsReport
www.bls.gov/schedule/202...
On Tues, it couldn't release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data.
This morning, it couldn't release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data.
Tomorrow, it can't release Oct 2025 #JobsReport
www.bls.gov/schedule/202...
November 6, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Every month for the last 77 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated Americans' unemployment rate
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
Reposted by Simon Marlow
It took just 8 minutes for thieves to steal the Napoleonic-era crown jewels from the Louvre. There weren't enough cameras and the ones there were there were facing the wrong way.
Could a 50-year-old maths problem have foiled the heist?
🧵
www.bbc.com/news/art...
1/9
Could a 50-year-old maths problem have foiled the heist?
🧵
www.bbc.com/news/art...
1/9
Where are the Louvre jewels now and can France get them back?
Experts warn that whilst the criminals may yet be caught, the gemstones they stole may never be recovered.
www.bbc.com
November 1, 2025 at 8:02 AM
It took just 8 minutes for thieves to steal the Napoleonic-era crown jewels from the Louvre. There weren't enough cameras and the ones there were there were facing the wrong way.
Could a 50-year-old maths problem have foiled the heist?
🧵
www.bbc.com/news/art...
1/9
Could a 50-year-old maths problem have foiled the heist?
🧵
www.bbc.com/news/art...
1/9
Reposted by Simon Marlow
NEW from me:
Political hostility, high visa fees and (in the case of the UK) stagnant incomes are making the UK and US less attractive destinations for top international talent.
That steep decline in the appeal of moving to the US after 2016 is 👀
Political hostility, high visa fees and (in the case of the UK) stagnant incomes are making the UK and US less attractive destinations for top international talent.
That steep decline in the appeal of moving to the US after 2016 is 👀
October 31, 2025 at 2:32 PM
NEW from me:
Political hostility, high visa fees and (in the case of the UK) stagnant incomes are making the UK and US less attractive destinations for top international talent.
That steep decline in the appeal of moving to the US after 2016 is 👀
Political hostility, high visa fees and (in the case of the UK) stagnant incomes are making the UK and US less attractive destinations for top international talent.
That steep decline in the appeal of moving to the US after 2016 is 👀
Reposted by Simon Marlow
I took part in this ONS podcast on crime stats – *and it has a transcript!* sites.libsyn.com/397223/crime...
Statistically Speaking: Crime data: Numbers, narratives and nuance
In “Crime: Numbers, Narratives and Nuance” our host Miles Fletcher speaks with Nick Stripe, Joint Head of Crime Statistics at the ONS and John Rentoul, leading commentator on crime, policing, and the ...
sites.libsyn.com
October 21, 2025 at 7:43 AM
I took part in this ONS podcast on crime stats – *and it has a transcript!* sites.libsyn.com/397223/crime...
Reposted by Simon Marlow
Useful reminder from Peter Kellner on the problems we refuse to acknowledge are getting better, and the politics of hopelessness that this breeds
open.substack.com/pub/kellnerp...
open.substack.com/pub/kellnerp...
September 23, 2025 at 6:29 AM
Useful reminder from Peter Kellner on the problems we refuse to acknowledge are getting better, and the politics of hopelessness that this breeds
open.substack.com/pub/kellnerp...
open.substack.com/pub/kellnerp...
Reposted by Simon Marlow
🔥 Domestic wood burning is becoming a serious public health issue
Residential wood burning now contributes 11% of the UK’s PM2.5 emissions - tiny particles that can harm lungs, brain & heart
See how your area is affected with this interactive map from UCL:
storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/9231...
Residential wood burning now contributes 11% of the UK’s PM2.5 emissions - tiny particles that can harm lungs, brain & heart
See how your area is affected with this interactive map from UCL:
storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/9231...
Where are the wood burners in England and Wales?
Mapping the distribution of wood fuel heat sources using Energy Performance Certificates
storymaps.arcgis.com
October 14, 2025 at 11:50 AM
🔥 Domestic wood burning is becoming a serious public health issue
Residential wood burning now contributes 11% of the UK’s PM2.5 emissions - tiny particles that can harm lungs, brain & heart
See how your area is affected with this interactive map from UCL:
storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/9231...
Residential wood burning now contributes 11% of the UK’s PM2.5 emissions - tiny particles that can harm lungs, brain & heart
See how your area is affected with this interactive map from UCL:
storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/9231...
Reposted by Simon Marlow
Today (date), the Slender-billed Curlew was declared extinct. The first bird extinction on mainland Europe in 500 years — on our watch. Extinction is final. No going back. Think about that.
October 10, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Today (date), the Slender-billed Curlew was declared extinct. The first bird extinction on mainland Europe in 500 years — on our watch. Extinction is final. No going back. Think about that.
Reposted by Simon Marlow
I know statistics are poorly understood and are misused. But facts matter
Between the 1991, 2001, 2011 and 2021 Census *every* ethnic group in the UK has become *less* geographically segregated and *all* groups, majority and minorities, are more likely to interact with people not like them
Between the 1991, 2001, 2011 and 2021 Census *every* ethnic group in the UK has become *less* geographically segregated and *all* groups, majority and minorities, are more likely to interact with people not like them
October 7, 2025 at 6:24 PM
I know statistics are poorly understood and are misused. But facts matter
Between the 1991, 2001, 2011 and 2021 Census *every* ethnic group in the UK has become *less* geographically segregated and *all* groups, majority and minorities, are more likely to interact with people not like them
Between the 1991, 2001, 2011 and 2021 Census *every* ethnic group in the UK has become *less* geographically segregated and *all* groups, majority and minorities, are more likely to interact with people not like them
Reposted by Simon Marlow
🚨 New working paper alert 🚨
Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴♂️🚴♂️🚴♂️
In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...
Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴♂️🚴♂️🚴♂️
In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...
September 16, 2025 at 10:25 AM
🚨 New working paper alert 🚨
Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴♂️🚴♂️🚴♂️
In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...
Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴♂️🚴♂️🚴♂️
In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...
Reposted by Simon Marlow
The Best Things I Have Found on the Unreasonable Effectiveness of Neural Networks
It may simply be that I am in a very unusual position with respect to what I know & what I don't, but I found these three videos from Welch Labs to be incredibly enlightening…
braddelong.substack.com/p/the-best-t...
It may simply be that I am in a very unusual position with respect to what I know & what I don't, but I found these three videos from Welch Labs to be incredibly enlightening…
braddelong.substack.com/p/the-best-t...
The Best Things I Have Found on the Unreasonable Effectiveness of Neural Networks
It may simply be that I am in a very unusual position with respect to what I know & what I don't, but I found these three videos from Welch Labs to be incredibly enlightening with respect to the unrea
braddelong.substack.com
September 16, 2025 at 2:04 AM
The Best Things I Have Found on the Unreasonable Effectiveness of Neural Networks
It may simply be that I am in a very unusual position with respect to what I know & what I don't, but I found these three videos from Welch Labs to be incredibly enlightening…
braddelong.substack.com/p/the-best-t...
It may simply be that I am in a very unusual position with respect to what I know & what I don't, but I found these three videos from Welch Labs to be incredibly enlightening…
braddelong.substack.com/p/the-best-t...
Reposted by Simon Marlow
Some personal news:
I've been fired from the Washington Post in the aftermath of the Charlie Kirk shooting.
Thread incoming.
substack.com/@karenattiah...
I've been fired from the Washington Post in the aftermath of the Charlie Kirk shooting.
Thread incoming.
substack.com/@karenattiah...
The Washington Post Fired Me — But My Voice Will Not Be Silenced.
I spoke out against hatred and violence in America — and it cost me my job.
substack.com
September 15, 2025 at 11:07 AM
Some personal news:
I've been fired from the Washington Post in the aftermath of the Charlie Kirk shooting.
Thread incoming.
substack.com/@karenattiah...
I've been fired from the Washington Post in the aftermath of the Charlie Kirk shooting.
Thread incoming.
substack.com/@karenattiah...
Reposted by Simon Marlow
I’m a broken record on this, but — there are so many examples of famous people radicalised by midlife career/personal knockbacks. Ant Middleton was on yday’s march. He got done for tax offences and lost his TV work. Now he’s mates with Tommy Robinson.
September 14, 2025 at 10:05 AM
I’m a broken record on this, but — there are so many examples of famous people radicalised by midlife career/personal knockbacks. Ant Middleton was on yday’s march. He got done for tax offences and lost his TV work. Now he’s mates with Tommy Robinson.
Reposted by Simon Marlow
Nice bit of research we supported through a @britishacademy.bsky.social innovation fellowship. By linking census data with health & education administrative data the research shows absences from school significantly contribute to children experiencing mental ill health
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
September 11, 2025 at 7:54 PM
Nice bit of research we supported through a @britishacademy.bsky.social innovation fellowship. By linking census data with health & education administrative data the research shows absences from school significantly contribute to children experiencing mental ill health
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
Reposted by Simon Marlow
Greater Manchester has been the fastest growing part of the country in the past decade – measured either by total growth or by productivity growth. I’ve had a look into the data to try to work out what is growing and why.
Below are some of the things I have found.
🧵 1/7
Below are some of the things I have found.
🧵 1/7
September 4, 2025 at 7:25 AM
Greater Manchester has been the fastest growing part of the country in the past decade – measured either by total growth or by productivity growth. I’ve had a look into the data to try to work out what is growing and why.
Below are some of the things I have found.
🧵 1/7
Below are some of the things I have found.
🧵 1/7