Institute for the Study of War
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ISW is a policy research organization focused on U.S. national security. Email: [email protected]. For more: https://linktr.ee/understandingwar
4/ The ceasefire that Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) Commander Mazloum Abdi and Syrian President Ahmed al Shara signed on January 18 outlines broad SDF concessions on several of the issues that the SDF has attempted to demand over the past year.
January 19, 2026 at 5:28 AM
4/ The ceasefire that Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) Commander Mazloum Abdi and Syrian President Ahmed al Shara signed on January 18 outlines broad SDF concessions on several of the issues that the SDF has attempted to demand over the past year.
NEW: Elements of the Iranian regime leaked information about purported plans to moderate regime behavior domestically and internationally.
Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️
Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️
January 19, 2026 at 5:28 AM
NEW: Elements of the Iranian regime leaked information about purported plans to moderate regime behavior domestically and internationally.
Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️
Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️
READ: Syrian Government Offensive Forces Syrian Kurdish Group to Capitulate
Read the full report here: isw.pub/SyrianGovern...
The US-backed, Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) capitulated to the Syrian government in a ceasefire agreement on January 18.
Read the full report here: isw.pub/SyrianGovern...
The US-backed, Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) capitulated to the Syrian government in a ceasefire agreement on January 18.
January 19, 2026 at 4:12 AM
READ: Syrian Government Offensive Forces Syrian Kurdish Group to Capitulate
Read the full report here: isw.pub/SyrianGovern...
The US-backed, Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) capitulated to the Syrian government in a ceasefire agreement on January 18.
Read the full report here: isw.pub/SyrianGovern...
The US-backed, Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) capitulated to the Syrian government in a ceasefire agreement on January 18.
4/ Russian forces recently advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
January 18, 2026 at 11:11 PM
4/ Russian forces recently advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
NEW: Russian forces are reportedly preparing to conduct long-range strikes against substations powering Ukraine’s nuclear power plants.
Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar011826
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️
Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar011826
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️
January 18, 2026 at 11:10 PM
NEW: Russian forces are reportedly preparing to conduct long-range strikes against substations powering Ukraine’s nuclear power plants.
Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar011826
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️
Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar011826
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️
7/ The regime likely hopes to control the narrative outside of the country by only allowing regime supporters access to the international internet.
Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...
Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...
January 18, 2026 at 2:01 AM
7/ The regime likely hopes to control the narrative outside of the country by only allowing regime supporters access to the international internet.
Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...
Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...
NEW: The Iranian regime’s response to the decrease in protests indicates that the regime has no intention of solving the root causes of the protest movement, which will make the next round of protests almost a certainty.
Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...
Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...
January 18, 2026 at 2:01 AM
NEW: The Iranian regime’s response to the decrease in protests indicates that the regime has no intention of solving the root causes of the protest movement, which will make the next round of protests almost a certainty.
Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...
Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...
NEW: US and Ukrainian officials held another round of peace negotiations in Miami, Florida on January 17. 🧵(1/4)
Iran Update, January 17, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar011726
Iran Update, January 17, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar011726
January 18, 2026 at 12:12 AM
NEW: US and Ukrainian officials held another round of peace negotiations in Miami, Florida on January 17. 🧵(1/4)
Iran Update, January 17, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar011726
Iran Update, January 17, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar011726
5/ The Syrian Ministry of Defense appears to have begun its assault to capture Syrian Democratic Forces-held territory in the Deir Hafer salient in eastern Aleppo Province on Jan. 16 amid recent US de-escalation attempts. This ground operation will likely remain limited to eastern Aleppo Province.
January 17, 2026 at 2:39 AM
5/ The Syrian Ministry of Defense appears to have begun its assault to capture Syrian Democratic Forces-held territory in the Deir Hafer salient in eastern Aleppo Province on Jan. 16 amid recent US de-escalation attempts. This ground operation will likely remain limited to eastern Aleppo Province.
NEW: The regime will likely tighten security around possible upcoming protest dates. It's unclear if the regime will securitize in targeted pulses around Feb. 17 & Nowruz or sustain current securitization for 2+ months.
Iran Update, Jan. 16, 2026: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...
More Key Takeaways (1/5)
Iran Update, Jan. 16, 2026: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...
More Key Takeaways (1/5)
January 17, 2026 at 2:38 AM
NEW: The regime will likely tighten security around possible upcoming protest dates. It's unclear if the regime will securitize in targeted pulses around Feb. 17 & Nowruz or sustain current securitization for 2+ months.
Iran Update, Jan. 16, 2026: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...
More Key Takeaways (1/5)
Iran Update, Jan. 16, 2026: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...
More Key Takeaways (1/5)
5/ Russian forces recently advanced near Slovyansk, Pokrovsk, and Hulyaipole.
Read the full update: isw.pub/UkrWar011626
Read the full update: isw.pub/UkrWar011626
January 17, 2026 at 1:32 AM
5/ Russian forces recently advanced near Slovyansk, Pokrovsk, and Hulyaipole.
Read the full update: isw.pub/UkrWar011626
Read the full update: isw.pub/UkrWar011626
2/ The RU military command has displayed a pattern of publicly presenting false info about the battlefield as part of a cognitive warfare effort to influence US decisions.
⬇️ RU oil & gas revenues & RU’s liquid reserves depletion will likely complicate Kremlin efforts to fund a protracted war.
⬇️ RU oil & gas revenues & RU’s liquid reserves depletion will likely complicate Kremlin efforts to fund a protracted war.
January 17, 2026 at 1:32 AM
2/ The RU military command has displayed a pattern of publicly presenting false info about the battlefield as part of a cognitive warfare effort to influence US decisions.
⬇️ RU oil & gas revenues & RU’s liquid reserves depletion will likely complicate Kremlin efforts to fund a protracted war.
⬇️ RU oil & gas revenues & RU’s liquid reserves depletion will likely complicate Kremlin efforts to fund a protracted war.
NEW: Russian milbloggers continue to loudly reject the alternate battlefield reality that Russian President Vladimir Putin and senior Russian military commanders are trying to create.
Read the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 16. 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar011626
More Key Takeaways (1/5)
Read the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 16. 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar011626
More Key Takeaways (1/5)
January 17, 2026 at 1:32 AM
NEW: Russian milbloggers continue to loudly reject the alternate battlefield reality that Russian President Vladimir Putin and senior Russian military commanders are trying to create.
Read the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 16. 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar011626
More Key Takeaways (1/5)
Read the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 16. 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar011626
More Key Takeaways (1/5)
NEW: Taiwan’s opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), voted to block the Special Budget for Asymmetric War for the sixth time on January 9.
Read the full January 16 China & Taiwan Update: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...
Other Key Takeaways:
Read the full January 16 China & Taiwan Update: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...
Other Key Takeaways:
January 16, 2026 at 9:37 PM
NEW: Taiwan’s opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), voted to block the Special Budget for Asymmetric War for the sixth time on January 9.
Read the full January 16 China & Taiwan Update: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...
Other Key Takeaways:
Read the full January 16 China & Taiwan Update: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...
Other Key Takeaways:
NEW: The Iranian regime’s extreme securitization of society and brutal crackdown on protests have likely suppressed the protest movement for now.
Read the full January 15, 2026 Iran Update: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...
Other Key Takeaways:
Read the full January 15, 2026 Iran Update: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...
Other Key Takeaways:
January 16, 2026 at 2:44 AM
NEW: The Iranian regime’s extreme securitization of society and brutal crackdown on protests have likely suppressed the protest movement for now.
Read the full January 15, 2026 Iran Update: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...
Other Key Takeaways:
Read the full January 15, 2026 Iran Update: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...
Other Key Takeaways:
6/ Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Slovyansk, and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk.
January 16, 2026 at 1:24 AM
6/ Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Slovyansk, and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk.
4/ The Russian military command remains committed to its false claims that Russian forces have seized Kupyansk, despite ample visual evidence and Ukrainian and Russian reporting to the contrary.
January 16, 2026 at 1:24 AM
4/ The Russian military command remains committed to its false claims that Russian forces have seized Kupyansk, despite ample visual evidence and Ukrainian and Russian reporting to the contrary.
NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to demonstrate that he will not be satisfied with a peace settlement that only pertains to Ukraine and does not radically restructure NATO.
Read the full report: isw.pub/UkrWar011526
Other Key Takeaways: ⬇️
Read the full report: isw.pub/UkrWar011526
Other Key Takeaways: ⬇️
January 16, 2026 at 1:23 AM
NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to demonstrate that he will not be satisfied with a peace settlement that only pertains to Ukraine and does not radically restructure NATO.
Read the full report: isw.pub/UkrWar011526
Other Key Takeaways: ⬇️
Read the full report: isw.pub/UkrWar011526
Other Key Takeaways: ⬇️
NEW: A Russian occupation official confirmed that several Ukrainian children — some with disabilities — whom Russian authorities forcibly transferred from occupied Ukraine have been adopted by families in Crimea.
Russian Occupation Update, January 15, 2026: https://isw.pub/OccupationUpdate011526
Russian Occupation Update, January 15, 2026: https://isw.pub/OccupationUpdate011526
January 15, 2026 at 8:00 PM
NEW: A Russian occupation official confirmed that several Ukrainian children — some with disabilities — whom Russian authorities forcibly transferred from occupied Ukraine have been adopted by families in Crimea.
Russian Occupation Update, January 15, 2026: https://isw.pub/OccupationUpdate011526
Russian Occupation Update, January 15, 2026: https://isw.pub/OccupationUpdate011526
Russia’s responses to the recent US military operation in Venezuela highlight the delicate balancing act it is engaged in vis-a-vis the Trump Administration — a balancing act that has come to define Russian foreign policy decision-making over the past year.
Read more: isw.pub/RussiasNonre...
Read more: isw.pub/RussiasNonre...
January 15, 2026 at 5:30 PM
Russia’s responses to the recent US military operation in Venezuela highlight the delicate balancing act it is engaged in vis-a-vis the Trump Administration — a balancing act that has come to define Russian foreign policy decision-making over the past year.
Read more: isw.pub/RussiasNonre...
Read more: isw.pub/RussiasNonre...
6/ Turkey may be providing air support for the Syrian government in the government’s operation against the SDF in eastern Aleppo.
Read the full Iran Update for January 14, 2026: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...
Read the full Iran Update for January 14, 2026: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...
January 15, 2026 at 3:28 AM
6/ Turkey may be providing air support for the Syrian government in the government’s operation against the SDF in eastern Aleppo.
Read the full Iran Update for January 14, 2026: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...
Read the full Iran Update for January 14, 2026: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...
5/ The Syrian government is likely preparing to launch an assault on the southern flank of Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-held territory in eastern Aleppo Province in order to isolate SDF fighters that are positioned further north in Deir Hafer.
January 15, 2026 at 3:28 AM
5/ The Syrian government is likely preparing to launch an assault on the southern flank of Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-held territory in eastern Aleppo Province in order to isolate SDF fighters that are positioned further north in Deir Hafer.
NEW: The Iranian regime views the protests as a proto-revolution that it must crush completely and immediately. Some Iranians are resisting the regime, in some cases violently, which reinforces the regime’s view that the protests retain the potential to transform into a revolution. (1/6)
January 15, 2026 at 3:28 AM
NEW: The Iranian regime views the protests as a proto-revolution that it must crush completely and immediately. Some Iranians are resisting the regime, in some cases violently, which reinforces the regime’s view that the protests retain the potential to transform into a revolution. (1/6)
8/ Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances on January 14.
Read the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 14, 2026 update: isw.pub/UkrWar011426
Read the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 14, 2026 update: isw.pub/UkrWar011426
January 15, 2026 at 1:57 AM
8/ Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances on January 14.
Read the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 14, 2026 update: isw.pub/UkrWar011426
Read the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 14, 2026 update: isw.pub/UkrWar011426
7/ The Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada approved several personnel changes within the Ukrainian government on January 14.
Polish officials reported that Russia conducted cyberattacks against the Polish energy grid in late December 2025.
Polish officials reported that Russia conducted cyberattacks against the Polish energy grid in late December 2025.
January 15, 2026 at 1:57 AM
7/ The Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada approved several personnel changes within the Ukrainian government on January 14.
Polish officials reported that Russia conducted cyberattacks against the Polish energy grid in late December 2025.
Polish officials reported that Russia conducted cyberattacks against the Polish energy grid in late December 2025.