4/ Read the full report:

3/ North Korea launched at least two “supersonic” ballistic missiles on January 4. The timing of the launch may signal Pyongyang’s intention to continue its military development amid US actions in Venezuela and PRC-South Korean dialogue.

2/ North Korea alleged that South Korean drones violated its airspace on January 10, which Pyongyang may use to further anti-South Korea narratives. South Korea denied North Korea’s accusations, which is consistent with the Lee Jae Myung administration’s de-escalatory posture.

4/ The Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) reached a ceasefire on January 10 after government forces captured Kurdish-controlled neighborhoods in Aleppo City.

3/ The Masoud Pezeshkian administration has expressed willingness to resume nuclear negotiations with the United States in an effort to de-escalate tensions with the United States amid Iranian concerns about potential US strikes on Iran.

2/ Iranian Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS)-affiliated media threatened on January 12 to deploy more IRGC Ground Forces units and specialized forces to suppress protests.

3/ Dozens of shadow fleet tankers off the coast of Venezuela have reportedly switched to using Russian flags in recent months.

Ukraine’s Western partners continue to provide weapons and military equipment to Ukraine.

Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces advanced on January 12.

2/ The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) stated that the Russian Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) launched on the night of January 8 to 9 struck a Ukrainian defense industrial enterprise in Lviv City, which is consistent with the available visual evidence.

8/ Iran Update, January 11, 2026:

7/ CTP-ISW recorded a lower rate of protest activity across Iran on January 11 compared to recent days. The lower rate of protests that CTP-ISW recorded is likely due to the regime’s nationwide internet shutdown and crackdown on the use of Starlink satellites.

6/ The actual death count for Iranian security personnel is likely higher than the number that IRGC-affiliated media reported, given that CTP-ISW has observed reports of security personnel casualties in areas, such as Tehran Province, that IRGC-affiliated media did not include in its death count.

5/ More Iranian security officers have died during the current protests than in any other protest wave in Iran. IRGC-affiliated media reported that at least 114 regime security personnel from the Law Enforcement Command, Basij, and IRGC have been killed since the start of the protests.

4/ The regime may be labeling Iranian protesters as “terrorists” and connecting the ongoing protests to the United States and Israel as a tactic to motivate hesitant security officers to forcefully crack down on the protests.

3/ Ghalibaf’s threat is likely a response to recent Western media reports that US President Donald Trump is considering various options to intervene in the ongoing protests.

2/ Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned the United States against “miscalculations” on January 11 and threatened that Iran could target US military bases in the region or Israel if the United States attacks Iran.

3/ Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 11, 2026:

2/ Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure overnight on January 10 to 11.

Russian forces recently advanced in the Borova, Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka, and Hulyaipole directions and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.