Matthijs Johannes Brinksma
@thijsbrinksma.bsky.social
Currently enrolled in the MA Global Conflict at Leiden University. Monitoring contemporary threats to world security with a focus on Jihadist groups.
Reposted by Matthijs Johannes Brinksma
A History of Outsourced Violence: The Rise of the RSF, LNA, and Wagner Group
My @smallarmssurvey.bsky.social Situation Update on historic mercenary economies in Sudan, Chad, Libya, and CAR, and how they've been connected for decades
www.smallarmssurvey.org/resource/out...
My @smallarmssurvey.bsky.social Situation Update on historic mercenary economies in Sudan, Chad, Libya, and CAR, and how they've been connected for decades
www.smallarmssurvey.org/resource/out...
A History of Outsourced Violence: The Rise of the Rapid Support Forces, Libyan National Army, and Wagner Group
In the war against the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have relied on external backing and regional partnerships that extend well beyond Sudan’s borders. While these relati...
www.smallarmssurvey.org
December 21, 2025 at 2:51 AM
A History of Outsourced Violence: The Rise of the RSF, LNA, and Wagner Group
My @smallarmssurvey.bsky.social Situation Update on historic mercenary economies in Sudan, Chad, Libya, and CAR, and how they've been connected for decades
www.smallarmssurvey.org/resource/out...
My @smallarmssurvey.bsky.social Situation Update on historic mercenary economies in Sudan, Chad, Libya, and CAR, and how they've been connected for decades
www.smallarmssurvey.org/resource/out...
Reposted by Matthijs Johannes Brinksma
Just say corruption instead of rent seeking! The invention of fancy terms for basic concepts is out of control in the social sciences.
December 17, 2025 at 4:07 PM
Just say corruption instead of rent seeking! The invention of fancy terms for basic concepts is out of control in the social sciences.
Reposted by Matthijs Johannes Brinksma
Russia has nukes, France, UK, and the U.S. have nukes. It won't happen again because of mutually assured destruction (MAD).
However, if India-Pakistan and India-China give a clue, the possibility of MAD won't prevent recurrent small wars and military crises either. 2/3
However, if India-Pakistan and India-China give a clue, the possibility of MAD won't prevent recurrent small wars and military crises either. 2/3
December 16, 2025 at 7:11 PM
Russia has nukes, France, UK, and the U.S. have nukes. It won't happen again because of mutually assured destruction (MAD).
However, if India-Pakistan and India-China give a clue, the possibility of MAD won't prevent recurrent small wars and military crises either. 2/3
However, if India-Pakistan and India-China give a clue, the possibility of MAD won't prevent recurrent small wars and military crises either. 2/3
Back on this site, as I no matter what I try, I keep encountering far-right slop in my X-feed.
November 21, 2025 at 10:36 PM
Back on this site, as I no matter what I try, I keep encountering far-right slop in my X-feed.
Reposted by Matthijs Johannes Brinksma
Likely Hezbollah sources threatened to incite protests in Lebanon against US Special Envoy Barrack’s visit if sr. Lebanese officials don't meet w/ Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani’s visit on Aug. 13.
Iran Update: isw.pub/IranUpdate08...
Other Key Takeaways ↓ (1/3)
Iran Update: isw.pub/IranUpdate08...
Other Key Takeaways ↓ (1/3)
August 13, 2025 at 1:26 AM
Likely Hezbollah sources threatened to incite protests in Lebanon against US Special Envoy Barrack’s visit if sr. Lebanese officials don't meet w/ Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani’s visit on Aug. 13.
Iran Update: isw.pub/IranUpdate08...
Other Key Takeaways ↓ (1/3)
Iran Update: isw.pub/IranUpdate08...
Other Key Takeaways ↓ (1/3)
Reposted by Matthijs Johannes Brinksma
2/ Iranian officials have strongly criticized the US proposal to oversee a transit corridor in the South Caucasus due to Iranian fears that its adversaries and competitors seek to use the corridor to undermine Iranian security and economic interests.
August 13, 2025 at 1:26 AM
2/ Iranian officials have strongly criticized the US proposal to oversee a transit corridor in the South Caucasus due to Iranian fears that its adversaries and competitors seek to use the corridor to undermine Iranian security and economic interests.
Reposted by Matthijs Johannes Brinksma
3/ Turkey pressured Syria to withdraw from the US- and French-brokered integration negotiations in Paris and encouraged Syria to strengthen ties with Russia to counterbalance US and partner influence in Syria, which undermines US policy objectives in Syria.
Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate08...
Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate08...
August 13, 2025 at 1:26 AM
3/ Turkey pressured Syria to withdraw from the US- and French-brokered integration negotiations in Paris and encouraged Syria to strengthen ties with Russia to counterbalance US and partner influence in Syria, which undermines US policy objectives in Syria.
Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate08...
Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate08...
Reposted by Matthijs Johannes Brinksma
Situation among the military in Bamako right now is very serious, yet very opaque, too. Fair to say it's a make or break situation for the regime
August 11, 2025 at 1:26 PM
Situation among the military in Bamako right now is very serious, yet very opaque, too. Fair to say it's a make or break situation for the regime
Reposted by Matthijs Johannes Brinksma
"Islamic State-linked fighters displace over 46,000 people in northern Mozambique, UN says"
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...
Islamic State-linked fighters displace over 46,000 people in northern Mozambique, UN says
The United Nations says attacks by insurgents in Mozambique’s northern Cabo Delgado province displaced more than 46,000 people in the space of eight days last month
www.washingtonpost.com
August 11, 2025 at 4:32 PM
"Islamic State-linked fighters displace over 46,000 people in northern Mozambique, UN says"
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...
Reposted by Matthijs Johannes Brinksma
There is no evidence, [ISW] wrote, that Russia is willing to compromise on its longstanding aims of preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, installing a Kremlin-friendly government in Kyiv and demilitarizing Ukraine. @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/11/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/11/w...
A Sidelined Zelensky Warns That Russia Will Try to Deceive the U.S.
www.nytimes.com
August 11, 2025 at 8:00 PM
There is no evidence, [ISW] wrote, that Russia is willing to compromise on its longstanding aims of preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, installing a Kremlin-friendly government in Kyiv and demilitarizing Ukraine. @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/11/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/11/w...
Reposted by Matthijs Johannes Brinksma
"Analysis by the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) outlined how Russia is filling a vacuum left by former colonizers, France, and capitalizing on recent conflicts and autocratic regimes that mirror Moscow's." @newsweek.com newsweek.com/russia-afric...
August 8, 2025 at 1:28 PM
"Analysis by the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) outlined how Russia is filling a vacuum left by former colonizers, France, and capitalizing on recent conflicts and autocratic regimes that mirror Moscow's." @newsweek.com newsweek.com/russia-afric...
Reposted by Matthijs Johannes Brinksma
✍️My new piece looks at #Iran as a 'network-state' relying on dispersed and heterarchical power centres/authority structure that is difficult to degrade
While #Israel was able to shock and paralyze the system in the first 24hrs, the network bounced back
www.e-ir.info/2025/07/05/t...
While #Israel was able to shock and paralyze the system in the first 24hrs, the network bounced back
www.e-ir.info/2025/07/05/t...
The Limits of Israel’s Degradation Strategy Against Iran’s Network State
Iran's system is not a command-and-control state but a strategic web that is hard to map, harder to break, and built for survival.
www.e-ir.info
July 5, 2025 at 7:44 PM
✍️My new piece looks at #Iran as a 'network-state' relying on dispersed and heterarchical power centres/authority structure that is difficult to degrade
While #Israel was able to shock and paralyze the system in the first 24hrs, the network bounced back
www.e-ir.info/2025/07/05/t...
While #Israel was able to shock and paralyze the system in the first 24hrs, the network bounced back
www.e-ir.info/2025/07/05/t...
Reposted by Matthijs Johannes Brinksma
NEW | Al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate JNIM launched a series of simultaneous attacks across Mali on July 1.
The operation was a tactical defeat but could have strategic benefits for the group.🧵
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/jni...
The operation was a tactical defeat but could have strategic benefits for the group.🧵
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/jni...
July 3, 2025 at 5:59 PM
NEW | Al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate JNIM launched a series of simultaneous attacks across Mali on July 1.
The operation was a tactical defeat but could have strategic benefits for the group.🧵
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/jni...
The operation was a tactical defeat but could have strategic benefits for the group.🧵
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/jni...
Reposted by Matthijs Johannes Brinksma
NEW: Taiwan is expanding and modernizing its annual Han Kuang joint military exercise to prepare its military and population for a PLA invasion.
Read more in the July 3,2025 China-Taiwan Weekly Update: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...
Read more in the July 3,2025 China-Taiwan Weekly Update: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...
July 3, 2025 at 7:16 PM
NEW: Taiwan is expanding and modernizing its annual Han Kuang joint military exercise to prepare its military and population for a PLA invasion.
Read more in the July 3,2025 China-Taiwan Weekly Update: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...
Read more in the July 3,2025 China-Taiwan Weekly Update: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...
Reposted by Matthijs Johannes Brinksma
"#Netanyahu is seen as having 'won' the war against Iran, his popularity is on the rise again across Israel, there is growing pressure from the military leadership to find an off-ramp in Gaza," @andreaskrieg.bsky.social said.
www.france24.com/en/live-news...
www.france24.com/en/live-news...
What do we know about the latest push for a Gaza truce?
US President Donald Trump this week urged the Palestinian militant group Hamas to seize the opportunity for a 60-day truce in Gaza, saying Israel had agreed to the proposal.
www.france24.com
July 3, 2025 at 8:10 PM
"#Netanyahu is seen as having 'won' the war against Iran, his popularity is on the rise again across Israel, there is growing pressure from the military leadership to find an off-ramp in Gaza," @andreaskrieg.bsky.social said.
www.france24.com/en/live-news...
www.france24.com/en/live-news...
Reposted by Matthijs Johannes Brinksma
“Hamas fighters are operating autonomously under orders to hold out as long as possible but the Islamist group is struggling to maintain its grip as Israel openly backs tribes opposing it”
Nidal al-Mughrabi, Jonathan Saul, and Alexander Cornwall - @reuters.com
www.reuters.com/world/middle...
Nidal al-Mughrabi, Jonathan Saul, and Alexander Cornwall - @reuters.com
www.reuters.com/world/middle...
Battling to survive, Hamas faces defiant clans and doubts over Iran
Short of commanders, deprived of much of its tunnel network and unsure of support from its ally Iran, Hamas is battling to survive in Gaza in the face of rebellious local clans and relentless Israeli military pressure.
www.reuters.com
June 28, 2025 at 5:58 PM
“Hamas fighters are operating autonomously under orders to hold out as long as possible but the Islamist group is struggling to maintain its grip as Israel openly backs tribes opposing it”
Nidal al-Mughrabi, Jonathan Saul, and Alexander Cornwall - @reuters.com
www.reuters.com/world/middle...
Nidal al-Mughrabi, Jonathan Saul, and Alexander Cornwall - @reuters.com
www.reuters.com/world/middle...
Reposted by Matthijs Johannes Brinksma
@dovlevin.bsky.social makes a very good argument (or series of arguments) for why Iran may now, in its weakened state, be deterred from—or incapable of—going for the bomb, even if it in fact retains the necessary enriched uranium, centrifuges, facilities, etc.
dovhlevin.substack.com/p/yes-the-at...
dovhlevin.substack.com/p/yes-the-at...
Yes the attack delayed the nukes
The twelve days war did set back significantly Iran’s nuclear programs- but not mainly due to its impacts on its nuclear sites
dovhlevin.substack.com
June 28, 2025 at 8:59 PM
@dovlevin.bsky.social makes a very good argument (or series of arguments) for why Iran may now, in its weakened state, be deterred from—or incapable of—going for the bomb, even if it in fact retains the necessary enriched uranium, centrifuges, facilities, etc.
dovhlevin.substack.com/p/yes-the-at...
dovhlevin.substack.com/p/yes-the-at...
Reposted by Matthijs Johannes Brinksma
Good @emile-hokayem.bsky.social piece on why U.S. and Israeli post-war triumphalism isn’t shared by Iran’s Gulf Arab rivals, who fear that they’re heading into an unstable, dangerous, and long-lasting crisis.
@financialtimes.com: on.ft.com/4nny487
@financialtimes.com: on.ft.com/4nny487
June 28, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Good @emile-hokayem.bsky.social piece on why U.S. and Israeli post-war triumphalism isn’t shared by Iran’s Gulf Arab rivals, who fear that they’re heading into an unstable, dangerous, and long-lasting crisis.
@financialtimes.com: on.ft.com/4nny487
@financialtimes.com: on.ft.com/4nny487
Reposted by Matthijs Johannes Brinksma
New post takes a detailed look at the role of drones in the Russo-Ukraine War, at the front lines as well as to the rear. It notes their limitations as well as value, and the importance of their integration with other systems. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/a...?
Are Drones the Future of War?
Lessons from Ukraine
open.substack.com
June 29, 2025 at 8:38 AM
New post takes a detailed look at the role of drones in the Russo-Ukraine War, at the front lines as well as to the rear. It notes their limitations as well as value, and the importance of their integration with other systems. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/a...?
Reposted by Matthijs Johannes Brinksma
Al-Shabaab alliance with Yemen's Houthis continues to grow www.hiiraan.com/news4/2025/J...
Al-Shabaab alliance with Yemen's Houthis continues to grow
In 2024, a United Nations monitoring team reported that the relationship between Somalia’s al-Shabaab terrorist group and Yemen’s Houthi rebels was “transactional or opportunistic, and not ideological...
www.hiiraan.com
June 26, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Al-Shabaab alliance with Yemen's Houthis continues to grow www.hiiraan.com/news4/2025/J...
Reposted by Matthijs Johannes Brinksma
Whew, consider that mf coined
June 25, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Whew, consider that mf coined
Reposted by Matthijs Johannes Brinksma
#Russia / #Ukraine 🇷🇺🇺🇦: "Ingush Armed Forces" (alligned with #Ukrainian Army) attacked a #Russian Police College in #Nazran, #Ingushetia.
The attack was carried out with an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) planted at the main entrance of the building.
The attack was carried out with an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) planted at the main entrance of the building.
June 26, 2025 at 4:46 PM
#Russia / #Ukraine 🇷🇺🇺🇦: "Ingush Armed Forces" (alligned with #Ukrainian Army) attacked a #Russian Police College in #Nazran, #Ingushetia.
The attack was carried out with an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) planted at the main entrance of the building.
The attack was carried out with an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) planted at the main entrance of the building.
Reposted by Matthijs Johannes Brinksma
Appalling decision by DHS. The Eradicate Hate program is about sharing practical resources and actionable knowledge to prevent terrorism, extremism, and hate in our communities. It was created in the wake of the mass murder at the Pittsburgh Tree of Life synagogue.
This is crazy. The Invent2Prevent program was not DEI in any way. It was ingenious & impactful. This is @DHSgov cutting off its nose to spite its face.
Noem uncovers and kills multimillion-dollar, Biden-era DEI, LGBTQ program www.foxnews.com/politics/noe...
Noem uncovers and kills multimillion-dollar, Biden-era DEI, LGBTQ program www.foxnews.com/politics/noe...
Noem uncovers and kills multimillion-dollar, Biden-era DEI, LGBTQ program
Kristi Noem and DHS uncovered and killed a multimillion-dollar program enacted by the Biden administration that pushed for diversity, equity and inclusion, and "inclusive environments in schools."
www.foxnews.com
June 26, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Appalling decision by DHS. The Eradicate Hate program is about sharing practical resources and actionable knowledge to prevent terrorism, extremism, and hate in our communities. It was created in the wake of the mass murder at the Pittsburgh Tree of Life synagogue.
Reposted by Matthijs Johannes Brinksma
Yesterday heard rumors of it happening.
Today,RFI confirms a widespread ongoing mutiny among Nigerien forces. Soldiers refuse to guard convoys on the route Islamic State is patrolling from BF to Niamey.
One commander had to be evac to Turkey for treatment.
www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/2...
Today,RFI confirms a widespread ongoing mutiny among Nigerien forces. Soldiers refuse to guard convoys on the route Islamic State is patrolling from BF to Niamey.
One commander had to be evac to Turkey for treatment.
www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/2...
Niger: deux mouvements d'humeur de soldats en 72 heures
Deux mouvements d'humeur de soldats au Niger en 72 heures. La première mardi à Filingué. La seconde mercredi à Téra. Deux compagnies situées dans l'ouest du pays qui se sont rebellées contre leur hiér...
www.rfi.fr
June 27, 2025 at 10:42 AM
Yesterday heard rumors of it happening.
Today,RFI confirms a widespread ongoing mutiny among Nigerien forces. Soldiers refuse to guard convoys on the route Islamic State is patrolling from BF to Niamey.
One commander had to be evac to Turkey for treatment.
www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/2...
Today,RFI confirms a widespread ongoing mutiny among Nigerien forces. Soldiers refuse to guard convoys on the route Islamic State is patrolling from BF to Niamey.
One commander had to be evac to Turkey for treatment.
www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/2...
Reposted by Matthijs Johannes Brinksma
"White Uncles in Africa 18+", a Russian Wagner turned Africa Corps Telegram channel.
French journalists successfully infiltrated it and showed the findings.
Racism,neo-nazism,openly displayed photos and videos of Russian crimes against the Mali population.
www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/2...
French journalists successfully infiltrated it and showed the findings.
Racism,neo-nazism,openly displayed photos and videos of Russian crimes against the Mali population.
www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/2...
June 25, 2025 at 10:10 AM
"White Uncles in Africa 18+", a Russian Wagner turned Africa Corps Telegram channel.
French journalists successfully infiltrated it and showed the findings.
Racism,neo-nazism,openly displayed photos and videos of Russian crimes against the Mali population.
www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/2...
French journalists successfully infiltrated it and showed the findings.
Racism,neo-nazism,openly displayed photos and videos of Russian crimes against the Mali population.
www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/2...