Kenya's recent Eurobonds were sold at an issue price less than 100 (so Kenya received less they now owe).

This means the actual interest rates Kenya is paying are 8.2% and 9.4% on the 8- and 13-year bonds. (Rather than the headline 7.875% and 8.8%).

🚨 BREAKING: The former leader of Reform UK in Wales, Nathan Gill, has pleaded guilty to #bribery, admitting he received corrupt payments as a Brexit Party MEP in exchange for making statements in the European Parliament to promote Russia’s interests in #Ukraine.

This is so depressing - Suriname restructured its debt in December 2023. The deal involved minimal debt relief from bondholders. Suriname is already struggling with the high external debt payments (averaging 23% of government revenue 2025-2030) www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Trump's Argentine bail out could set up biggest sovereign story of the decade. If Argentina defaults despite the bail out, Trump will want seniority, but IMF cant give it. You can imagine how this descends into a colossal row between IMF and its biggest shareholder www.ft.com/content/4127...

Elizabeth Warren has some questions for Scott Bessent on the US bailout in the works for Argentina. www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/do...

The US is now prepared to underwrite dollar giveaways for the rich in Argentina, this time without any intermediaries. In a sense, that is fairer than using its influence in IMF governance to approve yet another unsustainable programme.

That gap.

32% see immigration as one of the most important issues facing Britain — more than any other issue.

Just 4% see it as something that's important in their own life — one of the lowest shares, and a fraction of the numbers for inflation or the NHS.

Sarah Champion MP, Chair of the International Development Committee, says she is "deeply disappointed" at the lack of progress on global debt reform. In a letter to the UK government she says it is in a uniquely powerful position to drive change
committees.parliament.uk/publications...

what part of "We will take the fight to Farage" has convinced them they should never in any way fight Farage

One interesting aspect of this - the US government thinks making New York sovereign debt law more creditor friendly will mean New York law is used less. Because debtors will not want to use it.

www.ft.com/content/abb7...

A Baptist minister has been arrested in Oxford for holding a placard reading ‘I oppose genocide. I support Palestine Action’. Rev Grote of New Road Baptist Church said ‘I am doing this because of my faith. I’m doing this because I’m a follower of Jesus Christ, who broke the rules and created peace.’

Important point made in the background work that debt service to China looks like it has been increasing since last year, but mainly due to end of DSSI era & related suspensions. Whereas for the non-default countries, debt service to private creditors uninterrupted.

Debt Justice also finds that for the 32 countries with the highest debt payments:

In 21 (66%) over 30% of external debt payments are to private lenders.

In six (19%) over 30% of external debt payments are to Chinese lenders.

Full research is at:

debtjustice.org.uk/press-releas...

Debt payments by lower-income countries are three times higher to private lenders than to China.

For 88 countries, 39% of external debt payments are to private lenders, 34% multilateral lenders, 13% Chinese lenders, 14% other governments

www.reuters.com/business/fin...

There's an irreality about the tax debate in the UK

*No, we're not taxed that much (relative to other comparable countries)
*Public spending is far from high, let alone out of control
*Yes, we're all going to have to pay more tax

My new column for @theipaper.com
inews.co.uk/opinion/lowe...

Chad: High Risk (was denied debt relief by Glencore)

Ethiopia: In debt distress (bondholders have refused debt relief)

Ghana: High Risk

Malawi: In debt distress (No progress on debt relief in three years)

Zambia: High Risk

Restructurings during IMF programmes are meant to reduce debt risk to moderate. Of those taking place since Covid, none have yet done so:

While Ghana has reached debt restructuring deals with bondholders and government creditors, there are still no deals over $2.7 billion owed to other private creditors.

It is now 18 months since the deal with government creditors and a year since the deal with bondholders

The IMF assumes Ghana's real GDP will grow 5% a year, every year. And this will be done while having a primary budget surplus of 1.5% of GDP a year - around 10% of government revenue.

This means for every 10 cedis the government collects in taxes, only 9 will be spent in Ghana

Ghana has restructured much of its external debt but the latest IMF assessment says there is still a high risk of 'debt distress'

The IMF says Ghana will reach moderate risk by 2028. But external debt payments are right on the threshold - any shock will keep Ghana at high risk:

Sri Lanka's real public spending per person (not including interest payments) is only expected to reach 2015 levels in 2029.

And that assumes continued GDP growth and no major economic shocks.

In 2025 public spending is expected to be 9% less than a decade ago.

The debt is only being paid through Sri Lanka having a primary surplus of 2.3% of GDP - which is 15% of government revenue.

That means for every 7 rupees the government collects in tax, it only spends 6.

The IMF says Sri Lanka is still at high risk of being unable to pay its debt / need to restructure again

[The original restructuring was based on there being a 50:50 chance of another restructuring being needed]

Sri Lanka's external debt payments will remain extremely high for at least the next decade, averaging 22% of government revenue between 2024 and 2035.

That keeps Sri Lanka in the highest 20 countries for government external debt service, even AFTER 'debt relief'