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Reposted by Thiago Scarelli

Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 12d

Or, "no one wanted to look at this thing because it's a hot, hot mess, and finally I did, and guess what? It's a hot, hot mess."

Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 12d

"Significant contribution to the field" often translates to "first person to care about this very specific thing"

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Reposted by Thiago Scarelli

Maximilian Kasy @maxkasy.bsky.social · 13d

Reading rec:
"Challenges in Statistics: A Dozen Challenges in Causality and Causal Inference"
arxiv.org/abs/2508.17099

Great overview of both the state of the art and open question in causal inference!

Challenges in Statistics: A Dozen Challenges in Causality and Causal Inference

Causality and causal inference have emerged as core research areas at the interface of modern statistics and domains including biomedical sciences, social sciences, computer science, and beyond. The…

arxiv.org

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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · 21d

I recommended a rejection of a paper because a key reference, mentioned 7 times as a closely related work with a similar methodology, simply does not exist. It was supposedly written by some plausible authors, with a plausible title, in a plausible journal, but it does not exist. Weird feeling...

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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 26d

My opinion about the historic verdict coming out of Brazil, with @stevelevitsky.bsky.social, is in the @nytimes.com today.

www.nytimes.com/2025/09/12/o...

Opinion | Brazil Just Succeeded Where the U.S. Failed

www.nytimes.com

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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · Aug 19

1. The philosophy of science sometimes gets an unearned reputation as a purely academic exercise that offers little by way of concrete tools for advancing research.

This is wrong.

And today, as we grapple with how AI is changing the nature of scientific activity, it's desperately wrong.

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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · Aug 4

Our research was featured on @voxdev.bsky.social!

@olihanney.bsky.social, @emaansiddique.bsky.social and the stellar editorial board do a fantastic job in offering curated, accessible materials to the development research community.

As a devoted reader, I am very happy to have contributed to it :)

VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · Aug 1

🆕 Understanding self-employment in Brazil: Can people afford to search for jobs?

Today on VoxDev, @tscarelli.bsky.social and David Margolis show that material scarcity and financial constraints appear to be the main drivers of self-employment in Brazil: voxdev.org/topic/labour...

Understanding self-employment in Brazil: Can people afford to search for jobs?

Material scarcity and financial constraints appear to be the main drivers of self-employment for approximately two-thirds of urban own-account workers in Brazil.

voxdev.org

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Department of Economics, University of Oxford @oxfordecondept.bsky.social · Jul 29

📢Applications are open for two Nuffield Postdoctoral Research Fellowships in Economics, starting Sept 2026. A unique chance to pursue independent research at Oxford in a supportive, well-resourced environment.

Deadline: 30 Sept 2025
Find out more: bit.ly/4mcMxSR

#AcademicJobs #OxfordEconomics

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Oliver Hanney @olihanney.bsky.social · Jul 17

Teaching or studying economics? This blog is for you...

@emaansiddique.bsky.social and I have updated @voxdev.bsky.social's series of blogs showcasing how economists use different econometric techniques to answer interesting and important policy questions.

Read here: voxdev.org/topic/exampl...

Examples from development economics for your introduction to econometrics course

Economists employ a wide range of econometric methods when conducting research. Here are some examples of how these techniques are used to generate interesting and useful policy insights in developmen...

voxdev.org

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Paris School of Economics @pse.bsky.social · Jun 6

The new PSE Alumni platform is online!
Connect with 3,500+ graduates of Paris School of Economics, explore job offers, attend exclusive events, and stay up to date with alumni insights.
Join the network 👇 www.pse-alumni.org/en/

PSE Alumni

PSE Alumni, the online community of members of Paris School of Economics

www.pse-alumni.org

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VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · Jun 3

Looking to work at the intersection of research and policy in development?

Friends of VoxDev are hiring for 4 important roles in the evidence-to-policy ecosystem.

Check them out below 🧵1/5

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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · Jun 2

12\ I would like to extend my gratitude to all my colleagues who provided feedback on earlier versions of this work. Finally, to the anonymous referees whose valuable insights helped shape this final version -- if you are reading this, thank you!

Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · Jun 2

11\ Why this matters

This result challenges some narratives about entrepreneurship in developing countries by presenting evidence that a large majority of own-account workers appear to be people making constrained choices in a context of frictional labour markets and immediate financial pressures.

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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · Jun 2

10\ Intuitively, for workers facing urgent consumption needs without access to credit, immediate (though lower) income becomes the only viable option.

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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · Jun 2

9\ That is how we conclude that 1/3 of the Brazilian own-account workers appear to be taking their first-best economic choice. By contrast, twice as many seem to be favouring the immediate gains from own-account work at the expense of much larger gains in terms of future wages.

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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · Jun 2

8\ This comparison tells us how intense the constraints faced by own-account workers are, as it provides the lowest level of financial urgency (or discount rate) that explains the choices observed in the data. We then compare it with the discount rates available in the credit market.

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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · Jun 2

7\ Intuitively, we assume people compare the flow of earnings from their own-account work with a (potentially higher) flow of earnings from a wage employment that would start sometime later in the future.

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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · Jun 2

6\ Also, finding a job takes time! So, we need an estimation of how long it takes for people to find a wage position. The time dimension is fundamental here since taking wages at face value would exaggerate the relative gains of wage employment.

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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · Jun 2

5\ First, people are different in many dimensions, so we need to adjust for that when we estimate the potential (counterfactual) wages of own-account workers.

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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · Jun 2

4\ How do we answer this question?

In simple terms, we present a comparison between the economic returns of own-account work versus wage work, taking into consideration a few complications in the process.

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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · Jun 2

3\ In practice, it is hard to distinguish whether most own-account workers are motivated by the opportunities or constrained by the circumstances. This paper proposes one way of doing that.

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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · Jun 2

2\ What is the paper about?

Own-account work represents a large chunk of the labour market in developing countries, and Brazil is no exception. While some people stress the risks associated with these occupations, others highlight their positive aspects.

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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · Jun 2

About 2/3 of all own-account workers in Brazil appear to have taken this occupation as a result of a financial constraint, as opposed to their first-best economic choice.

This is the key finding of a paper I co-authored with David Margolis, now in EDCC: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

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Daniele Girardi @dgirardi.bsky.social · May 2

Yeah, I don't think you can ask reviewers to go through the code/replicate results, unless you pay them appropriately. I think a better equilibrium than the status quo would be: people write fewer papers & receive fewer papers to review, are paid to do so, and spend more time on it, including code.

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Gabriel Ulyssea @gulyssea.bsky.social · Apr 24

Very happy to see this out! This is a major revision relative to the previous issue. We have included important topics such as minimum wages, migration, and market power. Plus, it now also covers housing informality! Check it out!

VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · Apr 24

What have we learned about the informal sector?

Issue 2 of our #VoxDevLit on Informality by @GUlyssea, Matteo Bobba, @lgadenne.bsky.social & Mariaflavia Harari is out now! ➡️ voxdev.org/voxdevlit/in...

Today's podcast covers the update ➡️ voxdev.org/topic/labour...

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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · Apr 22

Important insight from Stefan Dercon (@gamblingondev.bsky.social): "design interventions that maximise the policy makers’ objective function given their constraints". Economics meets Political Science.

VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · Apr 22

🆕 Best buys meet political realities: The political economy of education research

Stefan Dercon (@gamblingondev.bsky.social @blavatnikschool.bsky.social @oxfordcsae.bsky.social) explores why policymakers choose education reforms that aren’t supported by evidence: voxdev.org/topic/educat...

Best buys meet political realities: The political economy of education research

Why do policymakers choose education reforms that aren’t supported by evidence? And how can researchers work with them to implement interventions with better outcomes? These are thorny questions often...

voxdev.org

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