Eric Carpenter
@weatherornot.bsky.social
Meteorologist for NWS Jackson, MS, hometown Savannah, GA - love weather, sports, music, road trips, and americanos
Such baroclinity and extratropical ascent are uncommon feats in these parts in August. Hopefully some needed rainfall is on the way. Love it or hate it, the NAM is always a good goto for frontogenesis output, ha.
August 27, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Such baroclinity and extratropical ascent are uncommon feats in these parts in August. Hopefully some needed rainfall is on the way. Love it or hate it, the NAM is always a good goto for frontogenesis output, ha.
Reposted by Eric Carpenter
Still amazed that the tragic, heartbreaking story of July’s Texas floods vanished from the national conversation so quickly
Especially when it’s such a warning sign about our readiness for future disasters www.thebulwark.com/p/fema-feder...
Especially when it’s such a warning sign about our readiness for future disasters www.thebulwark.com/p/fema-feder...
It’s Hurricane Season. Do You Know Where Your FEMA Director Is?
Dark days at the disaster agency under Trump, with senior leaders gone, staffing down, and money not going out the door as expected.
www.thebulwark.com
August 20, 2025 at 10:13 PM
Still amazed that the tragic, heartbreaking story of July’s Texas floods vanished from the national conversation so quickly
Especially when it’s such a warning sign about our readiness for future disasters www.thebulwark.com/p/fema-feder...
Especially when it’s such a warning sign about our readiness for future disasters www.thebulwark.com/p/fema-feder...
Reposted by Eric Carpenter
Intensifying 34mb in a single 4 hour reconnaissance flight is, uh, well that qualifies as Rapid Deepening. A 64mb drop in 24 hours (prior to the 18z update about to come out) is impressive. #Erin
August 16, 2025 at 5:43 PM
Intensifying 34mb in a single 4 hour reconnaissance flight is, uh, well that qualifies as Rapid Deepening. A 64mb drop in 24 hours (prior to the 18z update about to come out) is impressive. #Erin
Impressive heavy rain event in central MS early this morning over ob deficient area...2.32" in my gauge (x) fits MRMS gradient perfectly
June 9, 2025 at 6:55 PM
Impressive heavy rain event in central MS early this morning over ob deficient area...2.32" in my gauge (x) fits MRMS gradient perfectly
I'm sitting here mulling over model depictions of horrifying weather scenarios in the next few days while a story plays on TV in the background about how our GPS system is highly vulnerable and can easily be taken out...yeah it is now time for a bike ride 😀
March 12, 2025 at 7:41 PM
I'm sitting here mulling over model depictions of horrifying weather scenarios in the next few days while a story plays on TV in the background about how our GPS system is highly vulnerable and can easily be taken out...yeah it is now time for a bike ride 😀
A reminder I get often - steep lapse rates and strong deep layer shear will kick your tail. Show me a prog for a crap BL and low CAPE, but with steep mid level lapse rates and long hodographs, and I'll show you a surprise waiting to happen. We've had a few sig wind events recently in this category.
March 9, 2025 at 9:02 PM
A reminder I get often - steep lapse rates and strong deep layer shear will kick your tail. Show me a prog for a crap BL and low CAPE, but with steep mid level lapse rates and long hodographs, and I'll show you a surprise waiting to happen. We've had a few sig wind events recently in this category.
I do everything to avoid posting about matters like these on SM, but something that concerns me enough to post is the future. If this reaches anyone who was like me, once dreaming of a position in the NWS, I pray you will not let what's going on now entirely discourage you. It will get better.
February 24, 2025 at 12:35 AM
I do everything to avoid posting about matters like these on SM, but something that concerns me enough to post is the future. If this reaches anyone who was like me, once dreaming of a position in the NWS, I pray you will not let what's going on now entirely discourage you. It will get better.
It's pretty wild at how effective a little moist isentropic ascent can be in gulf winter weather events...already getting very light pcpn in central LA well ahead of better frontogenesis.
January 20, 2025 at 11:36 PM
It's pretty wild at how effective a little moist isentropic ascent can be in gulf winter weather events...already getting very light pcpn in central LA well ahead of better frontogenesis.
Reposted by Eric Carpenter
Want to see how the crashes in Omaha are doing due to the ice storm? We already have crash compilations.
December 14, 2024 at 4:39 AM
Want to see how the crashes in Omaha are doing due to the ice storm? We already have crash compilations.
So I didn't have to imagine as this was pretty close to do or die for my team tonight...ngl, it was hell 😄😵💫
laughing my ass off imagining a playoff game decided by alternating 2PAT attempts
November 30, 2024 at 5:37 AM
So I didn't have to imagine as this was pretty close to do or die for my team tonight...ngl, it was hell 😄😵💫
Reposted by Eric Carpenter
PSA: Meteorologists/weather folk of Bluesky, the GOAT CIPS analogs is back up and running 🥳
November 27, 2024 at 7:40 PM
PSA: Meteorologists/weather folk of Bluesky, the GOAT CIPS analogs is back up and running 🥳
I look at the ECMWF AI regularly in ops, and have been trying to get a feel for when it might have the most advantage...this is helpful and much appreciated info.
Euro AI and other AI models have been shown to be a huge step in improvement over the IFS/IFS ENS. Here's just some examples:
November 25, 2024 at 8:33 PM
I look at the ECMWF AI regularly in ops, and have been trying to get a feel for when it might have the most advantage...this is helpful and much appreciated info.
Reposted by Eric Carpenter
A historically strong Aleutian anticyclone with downstream cyclone amplifying on approach to the West Coast is a consequence of wave breaking. The v-wind anomaly (motion following longitude) is forecast to exceed 5 SD with this Aleutian High.
November 19, 2024 at 4:33 PM
A historically strong Aleutian anticyclone with downstream cyclone amplifying on approach to the West Coast is a consequence of wave breaking. The v-wind anomaly (motion following longitude) is forecast to exceed 5 SD with this Aleutian High.
Reposted by Eric Carpenter
Higher frequency waves will meet across the Indian Ocean in the coming days to help amplify the next MJO wave. The CFS analysis and forecast in 2-day increments of velocity potential is below. The blue contours (left image) are the Kelvin Wave and the red is the Equatorial Rossby Wave (right image).
November 17, 2024 at 4:37 PM
Higher frequency waves will meet across the Indian Ocean in the coming days to help amplify the next MJO wave. The CFS analysis and forecast in 2-day increments of velocity potential is below. The blue contours (left image) are the Kelvin Wave and the red is the Equatorial Rossby Wave (right image).
Reposted by Eric Carpenter
Tropical Atlantic Cyclone Heat Potential has been off the chart since the summer of 2023. We will have to expand the y-axis upper limit: 🌊 🧪https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/regsatprod/awp/tchp_anm.php
October 10, 2024 at 11:45 AM
Tropical Atlantic Cyclone Heat Potential has been off the chart since the summer of 2023. We will have to expand the y-axis upper limit: 🌊 🧪https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/regsatprod/awp/tchp_anm.php
Reposted by Eric Carpenter
Sarasota gage data:
waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-l...
waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-l...
October 10, 2024 at 12:00 AM
Sarasota gage data:
waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-l...
waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-l...
I don't think many people know just how bad inland areas were hit by Helene. I've been in touch with family and friends from Eastern GA to western NC and it is going to be a long time before it gets back to normal.
September 28, 2024 at 12:21 AM
I don't think many people know just how bad inland areas were hit by Helene. I've been in touch with family and friends from Eastern GA to western NC and it is going to be a long time before it gets back to normal.
Reposted by Eric Carpenter
The ocean heat content in the Gulf is extremely high, particularly inside the Loop Current, which future-Helene will pass over.
The area-average value is obliterating previous values for the date.
You'll find these at
bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/ohc/
&
bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/sect...
The area-average value is obliterating previous values for the date.
You'll find these at
bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/ohc/
&
bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/sect...
September 22, 2024 at 10:54 PM
The ocean heat content in the Gulf is extremely high, particularly inside the Loop Current, which future-Helene will pass over.
The area-average value is obliterating previous values for the date.
You'll find these at
bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/ohc/
&
bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/sect...
The area-average value is obliterating previous values for the date.
You'll find these at
bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/ohc/
&
bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/sect...
"Alberto" in 1994 vs 8/3/24/12z GEFS output for TD 4. Alberto was a billion dollar tropical storm that rained out over the SE. This was during my first year in the NWS, and I have strong memories of the forecast challenges when the westerlies failed to pick it up.
August 3, 2024 at 6:49 PM
"Alberto" in 1994 vs 8/3/24/12z GEFS output for TD 4. Alberto was a billion dollar tropical storm that rained out over the SE. This was during my first year in the NWS, and I have strong memories of the forecast challenges when the westerlies failed to pick it up.
Reposted by Eric Carpenter
