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Davide Vampa @davidevampa.bsky.social · 21h

Publication 3, recently in @wepsocial.bsky.social

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

From nations to regions: electoral volatility in European multi-level politics

European politics has experienced increasing turbulence, with much focus on the volatility of national elections. However, it remains unclear whether such instability extends to the sub-national le...

www.tandfonline.com

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WEP Journal @wepsocial.bsky.social · 23h

💥Out now: The introduction to the Special Issue "Cleavage Politics in Western Democracies"

"Updating cleavage theory for the twenty-first century" by @dpzollinger.bsky.social & @davidattewell6.bsky.social

doi.org/10.1080/0140...

Abstract of the article "Updating cleavage theory for the twenty-first century" by Delia Zollinger and David Attewell. Published online first in West European Politics.

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WEP Journal @wepsocial.bsky.social · 23h

Structural unemployment drives support for income redistribution in Europe, while cyclical unemployment shows no general effect.

👉 Discover how welfare state size moderates the effect of cyclical unemployment in the latest study by Ivan Petrúšek & Kristyna Basna

doi.org/10.1080/0140...

Abstract of the article "Structural and cyclical unemployment and redistribution support in Europe: the moderating role of welfare state size" by Ivan Petrúšek and Kristyna Basna. Published online first in West European Politics.

Figure 3, displaying point estimates and confidence intervals for the effects of contextual variables.

Figure 4, displaying marginal effects of cyclical unemploymemt at different levels of average public social expenditure.

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Nessa Ní Chasaide @nessanichasaide.bsky.social · 1d

New Special Issue on 'Cleavage Politics' @wepsocial.bsky.social. Lots of interesting articles, with helpful summary thread below by @davidattewell6.bsky.social

David Attewell @davidattewell6.bsky.social · 1d

@dpzollinger.bsky.social and I are thrilled "Cleavage Politics in Western Democracies" is out as an SI at @wepsocial.bsky.social!

Its papers explore the foundations of the cleavage pitting new left against radical right parties, and how it compares to the classic cleavages of Lipset & Rokkan:

🧵⬇️

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Delia Zollinger @dpzollinger.bsky.social · 1d

New SI "Cleavage Politics in Western
Democracies" @wepsocial.bsky.social!

If you're interested in transforming social & political divides in advanced democracies, this is for you.

The intro by @davidattewell6.bsky.social & me maps contributions around 3 challenges for contemp. cleavage research.

David Attewell @davidattewell6.bsky.social · 1d

@dpzollinger.bsky.social and I are thrilled "Cleavage Politics in Western Democracies" is out as an SI at @wepsocial.bsky.social!

Its papers explore the foundations of the cleavage pitting new left against radical right parties, and how it compares to the classic cleavages of Lipset & Rokkan:

🧵⬇️

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David Attewell @davidattewell6.bsky.social · 1d

10/ @annakurella.bsky.social & @milenarapp.bsky.social find party positions follow a 2D structure, but public opinion is far less structured. Voter attitudes on nationalism fit into the longstanding moral conflict dimension, but those on gender and environmentalism do not.

bsky.app/profile/weps...

WEP Journal @wepsocial.bsky.social · Feb 26

@annakurella.bsky.social & @milenarapp.bsky.social show that public opinion on new cultural policy issues is not strongly aligned with preferences on traditional economic & moral policies.

doi.org/10.1080/0140...

Part of forthc. SI "Cleavage Politics in Western Democracies"

Abstract of the article "Unfolding GAL-TAN: the multi-dimensional nature of public opinion in Western Europe" by Anna-Sophie Kurella and Milena Rapp. Published online first in West European Politics.

Figure 1, displaying the average structuring strength of latent conflicts across regions (north, central west, south).

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David Attewell @davidattewell6.bsky.social · 1d

9/ @siljahausermann.bsky.social and co-authors analyze vote preferences within the broader Right electorate, showing the blurring of the divide between preferences for center-right and far-right parties- and the far right’s marked rise among the youngest cohort.

bsky.app/profile/silj...

Silja Häusermann @siljahausermann.bsky.social · Jul 7

❗The segmentation of the right field is eroding, especially among young voters❗

New article out by @simonbornschier.bsky.social @dpzollinger.bsky.social
@mrsteenbergen.bsky.social and myself
@ipz.bsky.social ‬ @wepsocial.bsky.social

tinyurl.com/ycxfx2aj

A short 🧵

1/7

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David Attewell @davidattewell6.bsky.social · 1d

8/ Education anchors contemporary cleavage politics, but what *kind* of education? @nspmartin.bsky.social @ralphscott.bsky.social ‬ and @rolandkappe.bsky.social show the specific subjects British adolescents take in secondary school shape their voting behavior as adults.

bsky.app/profile/ralp...

Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · Jul 14

📣 NEW PAPER ALERT! 🚨

"School subject choices in adolescence affect political party support"

Just published in @wepsocial.bsky.social with @nspmartin.bsky.social and @rolandkappe.bsky.social.

doi.org/10.1080/0140...

🧵👇

Article abstract, which says:

The educational cleavage is restructuring electoral competition in many democracies, yet there has been insufficient attention on how variation in educational content affects this. In order to address this, this article combines English administrative school records with a unique representative panel of adolescents to estimate the within-individual effect of studying different subjects at school on political party preference. This analysis finds that studying arts and humanities subjects leads to greater support for socially liberal parties, whilst studying business and economics increases support for economically right-wing parties. Students who study technical subjects become more likely to support socially conservative and economically right-wing parties. These relationships between particular subjects and party support also persist into adulthood. As such, this article provides new evidence on the importance of subjects taken in secondary school for political socialisation, during the impressionable years of adolescence.

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David Attewell @davidattewell6.bsky.social · 1d

7/ @arminschaefer.bsky.social and @nilssteiner.bsky.social show how gender & generation condition the educational divide in green & radical right voting. Education divides widen among recent cohorts, and – for green voting- especially among younger women.

bsky.app/profile/nils...

Nils Steiner @nilssteiner.bsky.social · Mar 9

Very happy to see this out as part of a great special issue on cleavage politics: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10..... Building on studies on how (1) education, (2) generation and (3) gender structure voting on the GAL/TAN cleavage, we study how they interact.

Here’s a thread summarizing the paper👇

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David Attewell @davidattewell6.bsky.social · 1d

6/ @mierkezat.bsky.social, @eborbath.bsky.social, and @swenhutter.bsky.social argue that civil society still shapes contemporary cleavage formation, but with a more varied, volatile, and external pressure-based orientation to parties than the membership orgs of old.

bsky.app/profile/mier...

Alex Mierke-Zatwarnicki @mierkezat.bsky.social · Aug 28

I’m very excited to share that my paper “Cleavage theory meets civil society: A framework and research agenda” with @eborbath.bsky.social & Swen Hutter has now been published online in ‪@wepsocial.bsky.social‬ (w/ open access funding thanks to @wzb.bsky.social‬!)

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

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David Attewell @davidattewell6.bsky.social · 1d

5/ @vincenzoemanuele.bsky.social & Bruno Marino test Lipset & Rokkan’s famous freezing hypothesis w fresh data, finding some conditions for freezing L&R hypothesize are *not* associated with cleavage structuring and other societal/institutional factors were overlooked.

bsky.app/profile/vinc...

Vincenzo Emanuele @vincenzoemanuele.bsky.social · 19d

🎯New publication out in @wepsocial.bsky.social
'Lipset and Rokkan meet data': a 🧵on our study (with Bruno Marino) on the electoral structuring of traditional cleavages (1870–1967) across 17 Western European countries 👇

Read the full article (open access):
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

www.tandfonline.com

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David Attewell @davidattewell6.bsky.social · 1d

4/How strong is the educational divide in historical context?

@liesbethooghe.bsky.social l & Gary Marks find new left and radical right parties are as strongly structured by education as socialist parties in Norway, Germany, and the UK were by class in the 1950s and 60s.

bsky.app/profile/lies...

Liesbet Hooghe @liesbethooghe.bsky.social · Feb 7

We find that (1) education structures voting for GAL and TAN parties in Western Europe; (2) social structuration is as high as for classic social democratic parties in the 1950s; (3) education structures also Republicans and Democrats. Open access, and on our homepages.

WEP Journal @wepsocial.bsky.social · Feb 6

@liesbethooghe.bsky.social & Gary Marks measure the extent to which political parties on the contemporary socio-cultural divide are cleavaged.

doi.org/10.1080/0140...

Part of the forthcoming Special Issue "Cleavage Politics in Western Democracies".

#polisky #academicsky

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David Attewell @davidattewell6.bsky.social · 1d

3/ @garritzmannj.bsky.social analyzes the past, present & future of educational conflict, arguing the uniqueness of today’s divide is the breadth of the groups it sets in conflict, its links to group identities, and its spillover into almost all political conflicts.

bsky.app/profile/garr...

Julian Garritzmann @garritzmannj.bsky.social · Jun 23

I have a new paper out in @wepsocial.bsky.social: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
The paper situates discussions about the Educational Cleavage in a longer temporal context (back to the Medieval time) to show that there have ALWAYS been conflicts between educational groups. (1/3)

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David Attewell @davidattewell6.bsky.social · 1d

2/@dpzollinger.bsky.social and I set out 3 puzzles: How does a new cleavage work without strong intermediary orgs? How to reconcile cleavage theory w fragmented party systems? How are structural divides (e.g. ed) mobilized indirectly in political conflict today?

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Updating cleavage theory for the twenty-first century

Contemporary cleavage research has linked ‘socio-cultural’ conflicts mobilised by new left and far right parties to structural divides in post-industrial knowledge societies. Contributions in this ...

www.tandfonline.com

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David Attewell @davidattewell6.bsky.social · 1d

@dpzollinger.bsky.social and I are thrilled "Cleavage Politics in Western Democracies" is out as an SI at @wepsocial.bsky.social!

Its papers explore the foundations of the cleavage pitting new left against radical right parties, and how it compares to the classic cleavages of Lipset & Rokkan:

🧵⬇️

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WEP Journal @wepsocial.bsky.social · 1d

Online first:

"Women’s descriptive representation in multi-level political systems: (almost) no pyramids found"

The new research note by @adamgendzwill.bsky.social & Stanislaw Mazur

doi.org/10.1080/0140...

Abstract of the research note "Women's descriptive representation in multi-level political systems: (almost) no pyramids found" by Adam Gendzwill and Stanislaw Mazur. Published online first in West European Politics.

Figure 1, displaying different patterns of the descriptive representation of women at national, regional, and local levels.

Figure 2, displaying (a) levels of women's descriptive representation in two-tier countries (left panel), and (b) inter-level gaps in women's representation in three-tier countries (right panel).

Tables 1 (upper panel) and 2 (lower panel), presenting the assignment of countries with three or two levels of political representation to specific patterns of women's descriptive representation.

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WEP Journal @wepsocial.bsky.social · 2d

What matters more to politicians: the quantity or quality of public opinion signals?

Find out in the new article by @bart-maes.bsky.social Stefaan Walgrave Emmi Verleyen Frédéric Varone @annerasmussen.bsky.social & @professormpersson.bsky.social

doi.org/10.1080/0140...

Abstract of the article "What matters more to politicians: the quantity or quality of public opinion signals?" by Bart Maes, Stefaan Walgrave, Emmi Verleyen, Frédéric Varone, Anne Rasmussen and Mikael Persson. Published online first in West European Politics.

Figure 1, displaying average (reversed) importance of each public opinion criterion aggregated across countries.

Figure 3, displaying the frequency distribution of the quantity vs. quality public opinion criteria scale.

Figure 4, displaying predicted values of politicians' ranking of the criteria.

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WEP Journal @wepsocial.bsky.social · 2d

Part of the Symposium: European Parliament Elections 2024, guest edited by @simonhix.bsky.social

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WEP Journal @wepsocial.bsky.social · 2d

What explains the rising turnout in recent EP elections?

@filipkostelka.bsky.social & @evakrejcova.bsky.social find that it's the strength of Eurosceptic parties at the national level. The more seats they hold in national parliament, the more mobilizing the EP election is

doi.org/10.1080/0140...

Abstract of the article "Awakening the sleeping giant: rising Euroscepticism and turnout in European Parliament elections" by Filip Kostelka and Eva Krejcova. Published online first in West European Politics.

Figure 1, displaying voter turnout in EP elections between 1979 and 2024.

Figure 2, displaying Euroscepticism in national elections between 1974 and 2024.

Figure 3, displaying predicted turnout at different levels of euroscepticism in national parliament.

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Bart Maes @bart-maes.bsky.social · 5d

Politicians don’t just care how many people hold an opinion — they care how good that opinion is. In our new (open-access) article in West European Politics, based on survey data from 900+ politicians across 11 countries, we show: quality > quantity. Read more: doi.org/10.1080/0140...

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WEP Journal @wepsocial.bsky.social · 12d

💥 Online first:

"Easier said than done: the European Parliament’s entrepreneurs in the treaty change discourse"

by @karolinaboronska.bsky.social & @krotky.bsky.social

🔗 doi.org/10.1080/0140...

Abstract of the article "Easier said than done: the European Parliament’s entrepreneurs in the treaty change discourse" by Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka and Jan Kotýnek Krotký. Published online first in West European Politics.

Table 2, displaying the distribution of entrepreneurial positions in the sample.

Figure 1, displaying the distribution of entrepreneur positions within political groups.

Figure 2, displaying the distribution of entrepreneur positions by the level of country decentralisation.

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Jan Kotýnek Krotký @krotky.bsky.social · 15d

Curious about who in the #EuropeanParliament is driving (or blocking) the EU #Treatychange (reform)? Together with @karolinaboronska.bsky.social, we’ve just published a new open-access article in #WestEuropeanPolitics. tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

https://tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…

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WEP Journal @wepsocial.bsky.social · 13d

New article by @davidevampa.bsky.social

👉 Regional elections across Western Europe are becoming more unstable, often mirroring national turbulence. But the link weakens where regionalist parties are strong, institutions are powerful, or regions are more prosperous.

🔗 doi.org/10.1080/0140...

Abstract of the article "From nations to regions: electoral volatility in European multi-level politics" by Davide Vampa. Published online first in West European Politics.

📊 Figure 1
Regional elections in Europe often mirror national instability – but only for national parties.
✅ RTV (national parties) volatility closely follows GE volatility
❌ RSV (regional parties) volatility depends on past regional dynamics, not national ones
👉 Multi-level de-institutionalisation is real, but region-specific politics follow their own path.

📊 Figure 3 – Regionalist parties and electoral volatility
Across Europe, regional elections often reflect national volatility – but the association is weaker where regionalist parties are strong.
🔹 When regionalist parties are weak → national volatility is more clearly echoed regionally
🔹 When they are strong → the link is much less evident
👉 Regionalist strength is linked to weaker connections between national and regional electoral turbulence.

📊 Figure 7 – National volatility and regional disparities
Instability in national elections is more strongly reflected in regional election outcomes in poorer regions.
In more prosperous regions, the association weakens or disappears.
(And as Figure 5 shows, strong regional institutions also reduce the connection with national turbulence.)
👉 Economic prosperity & institutional strength condition how national and regional volatility are linked.

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Vincenzo Emanuele @vincenzoemanuele.bsky.social · 19d

🎯New publication out in @wepsocial.bsky.social
'Lipset and Rokkan meet data': a 🧵on our study (with Bruno Marino) on the electoral structuring of traditional cleavages (1870–1967) across 17 Western European countries 👇

Read the full article (open access):
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

www.tandfonline.com

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Davide Vampa @davidevampa.bsky.social · 19d

6/📌 Key takeaway: Electoral volatility is increasingly a multi-level phenomenon.

National instability is often reflected in regional arenas - but regional parties, institutional autonomy & economic prosperity can act as buffers

Full article (open-access) here ⬇️
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

From nations to regions: electoral volatility in European multi-level politics

European politics has experienced increasing turbulence, with much focus on the volatility of national elections. However, it remains unclear whether such instability extends to the sub-national le...

www.tandfonline.com

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