Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
@yarbatman.bsky.social
2.5K followers 310 following 360 posts
I invest in developing economies and study how sanctions are reshaping West Asia and the world. CEO of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation. Adjunct Prof at Johns Hopkins SAIS.
Posts Media Videos Starter Packs
Reposted by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
amprestigepod.bsky.social
Bonus - The Death of the Iran Deal w/
@yarbatman.bsky.social

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj is back on the show with Derek to break down how the Iran nuclear deal broke down, and where things go from here.

Link below ⤵️
Reposted by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
yarbatman.bsky.social
This is a great piece from @veenaa.bsky.social on the prospects for civil nuclear cooperation between the US and Iran. For a new US-Iran deal to be transformative, it will require the two sides to find areas for deep technical cooperation, like nuclear energy.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/22/i...
Could Iranian Nukes Be a Business Opportunity for the U.S.?
The Iranian foreign minister dangles U.S. investment in reactors as a win-win.
foreignpolicy.com
yarbatman.bsky.social
Spoke to @sgreports.bsky.social about why Iran’s leaders are pursuing nuclear talks even if they believe they can “resist” Trump’s maximum pressure.

It’s the pace of development that matters. Under sanctions, Iran is being left behind by its regional peers.
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...
On streets of Tehran, Iranians describe daily struggles and cautious hopes
Washington Post interviews with people across Tehran offered a rare window into the lives and economic frustrations of the country’s urban middle class.
www.washingtonpost.com
yarbatman.bsky.social
The Trump administration has issued GL 25, effectively lifting sanctions on Syria in a single executive action.

This is an extraordinary move. USG has historically approached sanctions relief with complicated, incremental methods.

This one big step could make a big difference.
Reposted by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
jordanovaan.bsky.social
Many thanks to @boursebazaar.bsky.social ( @yarbatman.bsky.social and Henna Moussavi) for publishing!
boursebazaar.bsky.social
As USAID pulls back from Central Asia, some regional leaders are welcoming the change.

In her latest for the Bourse and Bazaar blog, Anna Jordanova unpacks why this could be a turning point for local governance and diplomacy.

www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...

#CentralAsia #development #aid
Central Asian Leaders See Silver Lining in USAID's Demises — Bourse & Bazaar Foundation
When US President Donald Trump announced the reorganisation of American foreign aid back in January, Central Asian leaders saw both an opportunity and a challenge.
www.bourseandbazaar.org
yarbatman.bsky.social
Trump’s promise to lift sanctions gave Syrians hope for relief in a dire economy. But lifting sanctions is just the first step towards rebuilding Syria. As Nancy Ezzeddine writes, policymakers must see sanctions relief as “an entry point, not an end point.”
www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...
Sanctions Relief Won't Suffice for Syria’s Teetering Economy — Bourse & Bazaar Foundation
To rebuild Syria’s broken economy, Western policymakers must treat the moment of sanctions relief as an entry point, not an endpoint.
www.bourseandbazaar.org
yarbatman.bsky.social
Bill Luers was a fundamentally optimistic diplomat and I admired him for it.

He once told me that optimism is what kept him in his profession "for so many decades." It is also what drove his remarkable work on US-Iran relations.

He will be missed.
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/11/u...
William H. Luers, Diplomat Who Backed Czech Dissident Leader, Dies at 95
www.nytimes.com
yarbatman.bsky.social
My thoughts on how the US and Iran can make deeper economic relations a cornerstone of a new nuclear deal.

Iran presents a unique opportunity for Trump. It is a major economy with which the US could run large and persistent trade surpluses.
www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...
How Trump Can Strike Gold for America in Iran — Bourse & Bazaar Foundation
Trump loves gold. If he remains pragmatic and focused when it comes to Iran, he could strike gold in several ways.
www.bourseandbazaar.org
yarbatman.bsky.social
Iran is a uniquely large and open market for American exporters—perhaps the last major economy in the world where the US could reasonably overtake China as an industrial partner.

My reflections on how a new nuclear deal can be a *business* deal for Trump:
www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...
How Trump Can Strike Gold for America in Iran — Bourse & Bazaar Foundation
Trump loves gold. If he remains pragmatic and focused when it comes to Iran, he could strike gold in several ways.
www.bourseandbazaar.org
yarbatman.bsky.social
Iraq's Sudani met with Syria's al-Sharaa today.

The meeting marks the latest step as Iraq begins to adjust its Syria policy, cautiously extending a hand to the new leadership in Damascus.

Francesco Schiavi details the factors shaping Iraq's Syria policy.
www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...
Iraq Begins to Adjust to Syria’s Post-Assad Reality — Bourse & Bazaar Foundation
Iraqi leaders must assess if their new Syrian counterparts can be reliable partners and whether deeper political and economic cooperation can be pursued.
www.bourseandbazaar.org
yarbatman.bsky.social
On the @dropsitenews.com podcast with @mazmhussain.bsky.social about…

The president’s unchecked authority to start economic wars

The dangerous way US economic policy is now a subset of national security policy

The impact of Trump’s tariffs on de-dollarization

www.dropsitenews.com/p/trump-decl...
yarbatman.bsky.social
Spoke to @amirdaftari.bsky.social about the US-Iran talks.

I explained that Iran is looking at recent moves by the US administration, such as the critical minerals deal pushed on Ukraine, and recognizing that Trump wants a business deal, not just a nuclear deal.
www.newsweek.com/iran-leader-...
Iran leader open to US investment in win for Trump
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says that American "investors are welcome to invest in our country."
www.newsweek.com
yarbatman.bsky.social
NEW SEASON: The Sanctions Age podcast is back!

I'll be speaking with amazing guests, including Eddie Fishman, Golnar Motevalli, Kyle Chan, Erich Ferrari, and Eva Dou.

Subscribe to the newsletter to make sure you don't miss the new episodes.
www.thesanctionsage.com/p/the-sancti...
yarbatman.bsky.social
When the Iranian FM describes Iran's economy as a "trillion-dollar opportunity" for US companies, he's cribbing from a 2016 McKinsey Global Institute report.

MGI concluded Iran had "the potential to add $1 trillion to GDP and create 9 million jobs by 2035."
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Opinion | Iran’s foreign minister: The ball is in America’s court
Iran is ready for indirect negotiations with the United States. A solution to the crisis is within reach.
www.washingtonpost.com
yarbatman.bsky.social
Until recently, everyone was concerned about the unrivaled US capacity to wage economic war, but a minority of countries were targeted.

Now Trump is waging economic war on everyone.

The global response to US economic coercion is no longer limited by a collective action problem.
yarbatman.bsky.social
In Q2 2015, just 21,000 electric or hybrid cars were sold in China. This was the equivalent of 0.4% of all cars sold that quarter.

In Q4 of last year, 4.5 million of these cars were sold, the equivalent of 46% of all automobile sales.

From 0% to 50% in just 10 years...
yarbatman.bsky.social
25. Doing so allows China to focus on the real and tangible bounds of domestic industry, developing technologies and supply chains that augment its hard power.

The US has confused money with capital. The money may stay American.

The capital will be Chinese.
yarbatman.bsky.social
24. If the US wishes to limit the domain of economic competition with China to the imaginary and intangible bounds of global finance, focusing on currencies and reserves, China will abide.
yarbatman.bsky.social
23. That's not an outcome China wants!

So it makes sense for China slow roll de-dollarization, lulling the US into a false sense of security. They will tinker with anti-dollar policies, but will remain enmeshed in the global dollar system to give the impression of containment.