Something a bit hopeful to remember, there was a LARGE proportion of Trump's voters who did not fill out any downballot votes. They showed up for him and only him, not the party generally. Nobody else in the GOP has that kind of cultish following, and they've lost the moderate conservatives.
February 2, 2026 at 4:02 PM
Something a bit hopeful to remember, there was a LARGE proportion of Trump's voters who did not fill out any downballot votes. They showed up for him and only him, not the party generally. Nobody else in the GOP has that kind of cultish following, and they've lost the moderate conservatives.
The Downballot big board is a good brief look.
February 2, 2026 at 5:28 AM
The Downballot big board is a good brief look.
we are *so* going to marginal-gains-in-local-elections our way in to another coup aren’t we…
February 2, 2026 at 12:17 AM
we are *so* going to marginal-gains-in-local-elections our way in to another coup aren’t we…
I‘m amazed that you can dismiss the breadth of their analysis so easily. The downballot analysis showing the swing States, Texas and Ohio (Just the ones Trump needed to win) with Harris getting significantly less votes than downballot candidates in almost every district in each, is beyond belief.
February 1, 2026 at 10:36 PM
I‘m amazed that you can dismiss the breadth of their analysis so easily. The downballot analysis showing the swing States, Texas and Ohio (Just the ones Trump needed to win) with Harris getting significantly less votes than downballot candidates in almost every district in each, is beyond belief.
Amazing how this analysis just assumes the numbers for Kamala Harris were correct and so the unhacked local election gets a 32 point swing!
How about looking at what happened to Harris’ vote in 2024, @G. Elliott Morris. Doesn’t the 2024 downballot analysis from ETA raise any questions????
How about looking at what happened to Harris’ vote in 2024, @G. Elliott Morris. Doesn’t the 2024 downballot analysis from ETA raise any questions????
February 1, 2026 at 9:30 PM
Amazing how this analysis just assumes the numbers for Kamala Harris were correct and so the unhacked local election gets a 32 point swing!
How about looking at what happened to Harris’ vote in 2024, @G. Elliott Morris. Doesn’t the 2024 downballot analysis from ETA raise any questions????
How about looking at what happened to Harris’ vote in 2024, @G. Elliott Morris. Doesn’t the 2024 downballot analysis from ETA raise any questions????
With the additional problem that every other Dem candidate running will be repeatedly asked if they support him, which could have devastating downballot consequences.
February 1, 2026 at 9:06 PM
With the additional problem that every other Dem candidate running will be repeatedly asked if they support him, which could have devastating downballot consequences.
tbf this sounds like a pretty good way to catch aggregate opinion of candidate among completely low-info voters, the type of people who voted trump in 2024 while leaving downballot blank?
February 1, 2026 at 8:33 PM
tbf this sounds like a pretty good way to catch aggregate opinion of candidate among completely low-info voters, the type of people who voted trump in 2024 while leaving downballot blank?
Republican midterm malaise has gotten progressively worse over the past decade. 2024 was the best year for them since 2016 and even then it was a marginal win with virtually no
downballot coattails
downballot coattails
February 1, 2026 at 7:47 PM
Republican midterm malaise has gotten progressively worse over the past decade. 2024 was the best year for them since 2016 and even then it was a marginal win with virtually no
downballot coattails
downballot coattails
Writing #PostcardstoVoters is good for my soul & for democracy. Help increase name recognition for downballot candidates! Cards for Kadarius Knapper for school board 🚌 in AR & Julio Salinas for state rep, Rio Grande Valley, TX. More: @markers4democracy.bsky.social.
📷️ & cards by #StephaniesVision
📷️ & cards by #StephaniesVision
February 1, 2026 at 7:30 PM
Writing #PostcardstoVoters is good for my soul & for democracy. Help increase name recognition for downballot candidates! Cards for Kadarius Knapper for school board 🚌 in AR & Julio Salinas for state rep, Rio Grande Valley, TX. More: @markers4democracy.bsky.social.
📷️ & cards by #StephaniesVision
📷️ & cards by #StephaniesVision
yup. huge beatdown last year in school board elections too.
people there seem to be opening up to voting blue downballot from this bloody fuckery
people there seem to be opening up to voting blue downballot from this bloody fuckery
February 1, 2026 at 4:50 PM
yup. huge beatdown last year in school board elections too.
people there seem to be opening up to voting blue downballot from this bloody fuckery
people there seem to be opening up to voting blue downballot from this bloody fuckery
Ask Speaker Johnson to explain how the downballot Georgia races republicans won in 2020 were somehow legitimate but not the top of the ticket 🤔
The gop are trying to cry rigged & have an excuse to interfere in elections. Unforgivable Johnson is pushing the big lie.
@kristenwelker.bsky.social
The gop are trying to cry rigged & have an excuse to interfere in elections. Unforgivable Johnson is pushing the big lie.
@kristenwelker.bsky.social
WELKER: What do you say to the allegation Trump is going to meddle in midterms & that's what he's doing in GA?
JOHNSON: I find it comical a senator from GA is talking about schemes. GA was example A of that
W: There are no Qs about 2020 that have not been answered
J: That's your opinion
W: Nope
JOHNSON: I find it comical a senator from GA is talking about schemes. GA was example A of that
W: There are no Qs about 2020 that have not been answered
J: That's your opinion
W: Nope
February 1, 2026 at 3:29 PM
Ask Speaker Johnson to explain how the downballot Georgia races republicans won in 2020 were somehow legitimate but not the top of the ticket 🤔
The gop are trying to cry rigged & have an excuse to interfere in elections. Unforgivable Johnson is pushing the big lie.
@kristenwelker.bsky.social
The gop are trying to cry rigged & have an excuse to interfere in elections. Unforgivable Johnson is pushing the big lie.
@kristenwelker.bsky.social
Where only Rs run for office, the rw information bubble stays 100% intact. Dems are then purely creatures of the coastal elite. Local people with more liberal views feel hopeless and abandoned. Proven benefits come from downballot Dem candidates just talking sense to their neighbors.
February 1, 2026 at 2:57 PM
Where only Rs run for office, the rw information bubble stays 100% intact. Dems are then purely creatures of the coastal elite. Local people with more liberal views feel hopeless and abandoned. Proven benefits come from downballot Dem candidates just talking sense to their neighbors.
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
Democratic candidate Taylor Rehmet has won a special election for Texas State Senate District 9 in Tarrant County — a seat Donald Trump carried by 17 points in November 2024, per The Downballot.
Democratic candidate Taylor Rehmet has won a special election for Texas State Senate District 9 in Tarrant County — a seat Donald Trump carried by 17 points in November 2024, per The Downballot.
Blue wave watch: Democrat flips Trump +17 Texas Senate seat in 32-point swing
A nerdy look at precinct-level data from the TX SD-9 special election
open.substack.com
February 1, 2026 at 7:27 AM
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
Democratic candidate Taylor Rehmet has won a special election for Texas State Senate District 9 in Tarrant County — a seat Donald Trump carried by 17 points in November 2024, per The Downballot.
Democratic candidate Taylor Rehmet has won a special election for Texas State Senate District 9 in Tarrant County — a seat Donald Trump carried by 17 points in November 2024, per The Downballot.
Breaking: Texas Democrats score landslide upset in race Trump badly wanted to win - The Downballot
#politics#democrats
#politics#democrats
Breaking: Texas Democrats score landslide upset in race Trump badly wanted to win
Taylor Rehmet just flipped a deep-red seat—and gave his party a shot in the arm
www.the-downballot.com
February 1, 2026 at 6:00 AM
Breaking: Texas Democrats score landslide upset in race Trump badly wanted to win - The Downballot
#politics#democrats
#politics#democrats
the state that continues to elect THEODORE CRUZ wants you to lose so bad a downballot state senate seat just fucking exploded by 30! THIRTY points! I want to believe, so bad, i do, but i've been hurt, that fucking needle, man, i've seen a guy bodyslam a reporter and win by 2-3 points. 30?!
30!?
30!?
February 1, 2026 at 5:47 AM
the state that continues to elect THEODORE CRUZ wants you to lose so bad a downballot state senate seat just fucking exploded by 30! THIRTY points! I want to believe, so bad, i do, but i've been hurt, that fucking needle, man, i've seen a guy bodyslam a reporter and win by 2-3 points. 30?!
30!?
30!?
Texas Democrats score landslide upset in race Trump badly wanted to win (David Nir/The Downballot)
Main Link | memeorandum Permalink
Main Link | memeorandum Permalink
February 1, 2026 at 5:30 AM
Texas Democrats score landslide upset in race Trump badly wanted to win (David Nir/The Downballot)
Main Link | memeorandum Permalink
Main Link | memeorandum Permalink
Those from whom much is asked (dealing with Texas Republicans), to them much will be given (Blexas statewide victories and a downballot three mile island dummymander).
bsky.app/profile/pseu...
bsky.app/profile/pseu...
The funniest part of this is that the Texas maps were driving the party straight into a Three Mile Island Dummymander.
February 1, 2026 at 5:27 AM
Those from whom much is asked (dealing with Texas Republicans), to them much will be given (Blexas statewide victories and a downballot three mile island dummymander).
bsky.app/profile/pseu...
bsky.app/profile/pseu...
SPOILER ALERT:
[How he did it?]
"Rehmet... emphasized reducing the cost of living and strengthening public schools—issues that have helped Democrats notch unlikely victories across the country over the last year."
But do subscribe to The-DownBallot:
www.the-downballot.com/p/breaking-t...
[How he did it?]
"Rehmet... emphasized reducing the cost of living and strengthening public schools—issues that have helped Democrats notch unlikely victories across the country over the last year."
But do subscribe to The-DownBallot:
www.the-downballot.com/p/breaking-t...
Breaking: Texas Democrats score landslide upset in race Trump badly wanted to win
Taylor Rehmet just flipped a deep-red seat—and gave his party a shot in the arm
www.the-downballot.com
February 1, 2026 at 5:17 AM
SPOILER ALERT:
[How he did it?]
"Rehmet... emphasized reducing the cost of living and strengthening public schools—issues that have helped Democrats notch unlikely victories across the country over the last year."
But do subscribe to The-DownBallot:
www.the-downballot.com/p/breaking-t...
[How he did it?]
"Rehmet... emphasized reducing the cost of living and strengthening public schools—issues that have helped Democrats notch unlikely victories across the country over the last year."
But do subscribe to The-DownBallot:
www.the-downballot.com/p/breaking-t...
If you love special elections coverage like this—from a small but mighty team devoted to staying on top of the results even past midnight on a Saturday—please subscribe to The Downballot!
And if you were thinking about upgrading your subscription, today's a great day to do it!
And if you were thinking about upgrading your subscription, today's a great day to do it!
Subscribe to The Downballot
Covering every election, from kickoff to call. Click to read The Downballot, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
www.the-downballot.com
February 1, 2026 at 5:16 AM
If you love special elections coverage like this—from a small but mighty team devoted to staying on top of the results even past midnight on a Saturday—please subscribe to The Downballot!
And if you were thinking about upgrading your subscription, today's a great day to do it!
And if you were thinking about upgrading your subscription, today's a great day to do it!
The shocking part is that this district especially has never had a significant movement to the left. It's like tectonic plates that are building pressure and then it slips all at once. If this happening even in pretty R-friendly downballot suburbs...
February 1, 2026 at 5:13 AM
The shocking part is that this district especially has never had a significant movement to the left. It's like tectonic plates that are building pressure and then it slips all at once. If this happening even in pretty R-friendly downballot suburbs...
Republicans rightly got freaked out after Rehmet almost won in November. They didn't get freaked out enough. Then again, probably no degree of panic-induced spending could have saved them.
February 1, 2026 at 5:12 AM
Republicans rightly got freaked out after Rehmet almost won in November. They didn't get freaked out enough. Then again, probably no degree of panic-induced spending could have saved them.
Also especially in downballot races sometimes voters get suspicious if they get carpetbombed with direct mail and TV ads from one candidate.
February 1, 2026 at 4:44 AM
Also especially in downballot races sometimes voters get suspicious if they get carpetbombed with direct mail and TV ads from one candidate.
The R candidate has apparently conceded, so that's a flip folks. Probably a 30-point swing vs 2024 per The Downballot, could be 35 vs the 2022 election in the seat docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
The Downballot's special elections Big Board for the 2025-26 cycle
docs.google.com
February 1, 2026 at 4:41 AM
The R candidate has apparently conceded, so that's a flip folks. Probably a 30-point swing vs 2024 per The Downballot, could be 35 vs the 2022 election in the seat docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
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