Reposted by: Alessandro Rebucci
@jesseschreger.bsky.social and I are organizing the
International Economics and Geopolitics meeting at NBER Summer Institute
See call for submission below
submit at:
www.nber.org/confsubmit/b... by 11:59 pm (EST) on March 20, 2025.
International Economics and Geopolitics meeting at NBER Summer Institute
See call for submission below
submit at:
www.nber.org/confsubmit/b... by 11:59 pm (EST) on March 20, 2025.
Reposted by: Alessandro Rebucci
Post- #China shock relative consumption loss of the European middle classes and the associated perceived risk of societal decline can explain the large success of #right-wing political radicalism in the last three decades.
@bmarzi.bsky.social
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
@bmarzi.bsky.social
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Reposted by: Alessandro Rebucci
Increasing technology adoption in banking to the level in the top half of the distribution can accelerate long-term growth from 2 percent to 2.17 percent, from Sheila Jiang, @arebucci.bsky.social, and Gang Zhang https://www.nber.org/papers/w33551
Reposted by: Alessandro Rebucci, Matteo Maggiori
Join us at the 2025 Johns Hopkins Geoeconomics Conference Keynote Presentation and Panel Discussion
🗓️ Friday, May 2 | 2:00–7:00 PM
📍 Hopkins Bloomberg Center, Washington, DC
🔗 Register here: lnkd.in/eEzhX_PQ.
The conference Website is here: lnkd.in/eGbz-s_j
#Geoeconomics #JohnsHopkins
🗓️ Friday, May 2 | 2:00–7:00 PM
📍 Hopkins Bloomberg Center, Washington, DC
🔗 Register here: lnkd.in/eEzhX_PQ.
The conference Website is here: lnkd.in/eGbz-s_j
#Geoeconomics #JohnsHopkins
LinkedIn
This link will take you to a page that’s not on LinkedIn
lnkd.in
Reposted by: Alessandro Rebucci
A little Easter thread on the many surprises the eleven trading sessions since Trump's Liquidation Day announcement have held for capital market participants – why has the dollar weakened in the face of rising tariffs and a rise in US yields relative to its trading partners? [1/11]
The #BBB will add $3-4 trillion to the US debt supply. #TheGeniusAct and #SLR reform have their merits, but will boost demand for government debt, while investors are retrenching and dealer inventories are at all-time highs. This smacks of #financialrepression
anderseninstitute.org/regulation-b...
anderseninstitute.org/regulation-b...
When Financial Regulation becomes Financial Repression – Andersen Institute
anderseninstitute.org
I am thrilled to have joined the substack.com/profile/31…as an Andersen Institute Scholar! 🚀
I am grateful to Fabio Natalucci for the opportunity to collaborate with his outstanding team, and I am excited to contribute to this critical dialogue.#Technologyg#AIAI#Fragmentationo#Deglobalizationon
I am grateful to Fabio Natalucci for the opportunity to collaborate with his outstanding team, and I am excited to contribute to this critical dialogue.#Technologyg#AIAI#Fragmentationo#Deglobalizationon
https://substack.com/profile/31…as
A nice discussion of the current and capital account channels of transmission on the exchange rate of tariffs
Mar-a-Lago Accord does not seem to be going according to plan: www.reuters.com/markets/asia...
Japan says its $1 trillion in US Treasuries is among tools for trade talks
Japan's huge $1 trillion-plus in U.S. Treasury holdings are among the tools available for Tokyo to use in trade negotiations with the United States, Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Friday.
www.reuters.com
Financial repression is coming: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Miran had suggested foreign official holders should be forced to demand more USTs ... Bessent is settling for forcing US banks and stablecoin holders to help lower borrowing costs.
Miran had suggested foreign official holders should be forced to demand more USTs ... Bessent is settling for forcing US banks and stablecoin holders to help lower borrowing costs.
America Needs to Be Strong. Why Weaken Its Banks?
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has picked the worst possible moment to consider loosening a crucial financial system safeguard.
www.bloomberg.com
Way too many people still think this is an exciting time:
Reposted by: Alessandro Rebucci
Martin Wolf is good on Odd Lots in part because this is exactly how he chats to you in the office kitchen if you ask him a tricky question like "hello Martin, how are you?"
open.spotify.com/episode/6dUH...
open.spotify.com/episode/6dUH...
Martin Wolf on Trump's Shakeup of the Global Order
Odd Lots · Episode
open.spotify.com
Will feature also at our conference in a few days. Terrific paper!
mediahost.sais-jhu.edu/saismedia/me...
mediahost.sais-jhu.edu/saismedia/me...
Will feature also at our conference in a few days. Terrific paper!
mediahost.sais-jhu.edu/saismedia/me...
mediahost.sais-jhu.edu/saismedia/me...
Reposted by: Alessandro Rebucci
If tariffs are going to improve US debt sustainability then why is US default risk going up?
#Finsky #Econsky
#Finsky #Econsky
Reposted by: Alessandro Rebucci
The ETFs that are not struggling are those emphasizing companies with operations in Mexico, Chile, and Germany: well.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-17/once-hot-wall-street-funds-unravel-fast-with-no-savior-in-sight?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy
Once-Hot Wall Street Funds Unravel Fast With No Savior in Sight
With Jerome Powell ruling out a rescue mission this week and incurring the wrath of Donald Trump, Wall Street is desperate for a lifeline as tariff-lashed markets slide anew.
www.bloomberg.com
7/7 The #USdollar response to the Liberation Day tariff announcement was surprising and appears also driven by a portfolio reallocation away from US equity markets. This suggests that tariff negotiation plans will not only need to consider possible impacts on #safeassets but also risky assets.
6/7 This is especially the case when these inputs are specific and cannot be substituted away. For example, the share of industrial supplies, capital goods, and transport equipment in US imports from China is more than 70% (cepr.org/voxeu/column...)
5/7 Why did US equities fall more than foreign equities?
If a tariff is imposed across the board without distinguishing between final and intermediate products, tariffs can become a cost push or supply chain shock, and stock prices react to supply chain risks: academic.oup.com/qje/article-...
If a tariff is imposed across the board without distinguishing between final and intermediate products, tariffs can become a cost push or supply chain shock, and stock prices react to supply chain risks: academic.oup.com/qje/article-...
Input Specificity and the Propagation of Idiosyncratic Shocks in Production Networks *
Abstract. This article examines whether firm-level idiosyncratic shocks propagate in production networks. We identify idiosyncratic shocks with the occurre
academic.oup.com
4/7 The VIX index spiked on the announcement, WTI oil fell, driven by global demand concerns, gold rose, BUT the US Treasury 10-year yield fell on 4/3. Although US Treasury yields rose considerably during the following week, flight-to-safety did not drive the initial impact on the dollar.
3/7 Why did this happen? Foreign investors rebalanced their portfolios away from US equities after the tariff announcement: US stock indices fell more than others, and Global benchmark funds ex-US saw much smaller outflows.
2/7 We find that tariffs weakened the US dollar and hurt US equities, driven by the appreciation of G10 currencies.
This is unusual: theory and prior evidence suggest that tariffs weaken the currency of the countries being targeted. Indeed, floating EM currencies depreciated.
This is unusual: theory and prior evidence suggest that tariffs weaken the currency of the countries being targeted. Indeed, floating EM currencies depreciated.
New column on cepr.org/voxeu with Jon Hartley on the #USDollar depreciation on the Liberation Day tariff announcement. We use high-frequency data to track the response of the dollar, treasuries, and global equities.
1/7 🧵
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky #News
1/7 🧵
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky #News
Tariffs, the dollar, and equities: High-frequency evidence from the Liberation Day announcement
On 2 April 2025, the US announced tariffs on most of its trading partners, creating a major trade policy shock to the world economy. This column shows that the US dollar depreciated on impact, rather than appreciating as expected based on standard theory and prior evidence. The authors argue that this unusual transmission impact of the tariffs on the dollar was driven by foreign equity portfolio rebalancing away from US equities. US trade policy not only needs to consider possible impacts on US safe assets but also risky assets.
cepr.org
Reposting to
#EconSky #EconConf #AcademicSky
#EconSky #EconConf #AcademicSky
by Alessandro Rebucci — Reposted by: Matteo Maggiori
🎤 At 2 PM, Matteo Maggiori (Stanford) will deliver the keynote address: “Geoeconomics.”
💬 From 4–6 PM, Gillian Tett (FT) will moderate a high-level panel discussion.
🥂 A reception will follow from 6–7 PM.
This promises to be a timely and thought-provoking event—don’t miss it.
💬 From 4–6 PM, Gillian Tett (FT) will moderate a high-level panel discussion.
🥂 A reception will follow from 6–7 PM.
This promises to be a timely and thought-provoking event—don’t miss it.
Against the benchmark of the event studies in the latest IMF GFSR report, the US is trading at an emerging market:
www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Art...
www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Art...
How Rising Geopolitical Risks Weigh on Asset Prices
Heightened tensions can hurt stock markets, raise government borrowing costs, and pose risks to financial stability
www.imf.org
CEA member Yared makes an excellent point here: cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Albeit a bit too late.
Will Trade War II be seen as the birth of the next dominant currency once the Yuan becomes convertible?
Albeit a bit too late.
Will Trade War II be seen as the birth of the next dominant currency once the Yuan becomes convertible?
Excited about this new paper, long in the making, about the general equilibrium effect of fintech. We found they can be sizable, especially on lending rates and long-run growth. Mechanism? The cost of funds affects entry and exit and crowds in bigger and more productive entrepreneurs.