Jack Lucas
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jacklucas.bsky.social
Jack Lucas
@jacklucas.bsky.social
730 followers 480 following 62 posts

Professor of Political Science, University of Calgary https://lucasjacklucas.github.io/ | Co-Director, Canadian Municipal Barometer http://www.cmb-bmc.ca

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Political science 74%
Sociology 10%
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Reposted by Will Jennings, Ruth Dassonneville, Jon Green , and 7 more

liorsheffer.bsky.social
Lior Sheffer @liorsheffer.bsky.social · 5d
New and open access, in @psrm.bsky.social: What happens when we make politicians draw distributions? Nic Dias, @jacklucas.bsky.social and I explore whether the large errors politicians make about public opinion are artificially inflated by how researchers ask them to estimate it /1
cup.org/4kltoyE

Reposted by Jack Lucas

cambup-polsci.cambridge.org
Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 6d
#OpenAccess from @psrm.bsky.social -

Beyond the mean: how thinking about the distribution of public opinions reduces politicians’ perceptual errors - https://cup.org/4kltoyE

- Nicholas Dias, @jacklucas.bsky.social & @liorsheffer.bsky.social

#FirstView
Logo of Political Science Research and Methods featuring the initials "PSRM" in a stylized grey font on a black background.

Reposted by Jack Lucas

bigcitypolitics.bsky.social
Zack Taylor @bigcitypolitics.bsky.social · Dec 19
It's officially out! City Politics in Canada, co-edited with @jacklucas.bsky.social and Martin Horak @westernupolisci.bsky.social is in print and available for course adoption. Thank you to all chapter authors for their contributions. bsky.app/profile/did:...
bigcitypolitics.bsky.social Zack Taylor @bigcitypolitics.bsky.social · Oct 15
Coming in December from @uoftpress.bsky.social: City Politics in Canada: 40 Years of Continuity and Change, co-edited with Martin Horak (@westernupolisci.bsky.social) and @jacklucas.bsky.social! utppublishing.com/doi/book/10....

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lturgeon.bsky.social
Luc Turgeon @lturgeon.bsky.social · Dec 18
Santa came early this year and I just received my copy of City Politics in Canada, edited by Martin Horak, @jacklucas.bsky.social and @bigcitypolitics.bsky.social. I wrote the chapter on Ottawa (dedicated to the late Caroline Andrew).
Photo of the book City Politics in Canada. Picture of the chapter by Luc Turgeon on Ottawa in the book.

jacklucas.bsky.social
Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Nov 17
Final CMB Online Research Workshop of 2025, coming up on Thursday! Allison Verrilli (UT Austin) will be presenting research on gentrification and political participation, with Matt Nelsen (Miami) as discussant. Will be great; email me for the link!

jacklucas.bsky.social
Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Nov 14
Will ask!

jacklucas.bsky.social
Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Nov 14
Happening TODAY! The latest CMB Online Research Workshop event, featuring the great Tyler Simko. Email me if you'd like to attend and I'll share the link!

jacklucas.bsky.social
Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Oct 23
The CMB Online Speakers Series is back! Jérémy Gilbert on Multilevel Climate Governance, Friday October 31st from 11:00am to 12:00pm (MT)/1:00pm to 2:00pm (ET). Email me or @nicolemcmahon.bsky.social for the link if you'd like to join!

jacklucas.bsky.social
Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Oct 23
Congratulations to our winner, Alex Middleton (@alexyyc.bsky.social)! Twelve correct calls, plus a remarkably low 11.5% overall error in the tiebreaker. Well done!

Reposted by Jack Lucas

annaliseak.bsky.social
Annalise Klingbeil @annaliseak.bsky.social · Oct 22
Alberta Voted: Now What?
I'll be moderating this Nonprofits Vote event with panelists Matt Solberg, @markusoff.bsky.social, Rachel Swendseid & @jacklucas.bsky.social discussing the election that was.
Join us at 10 a.m. on Oct. 23. No cost and online, register here: www.eventbrite.ca/e/political-...
Political Gossip with Friends
Alberta’s 2025 municipal elections are looking different this year. Join Nonprofits Vote on October 23rd for nonprofit focused debrief!
www.eventbrite.ca

jacklucas.bsky.social
Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Oct 21
No, but we have a post-election survey going into the field today in Calgary (and six other AB muns), and it includes a good issue question. More soon!

jacklucas.bsky.social
Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Oct 21
Remarkably, because of the low turnout and the number of competitive mayoral candidates, it looks like Jeromy Farkas will win the 2025 mayoral election with 25,000 *fewer* votes than he received in 2021.

jacklucas.bsky.social
Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Oct 21
OK, that's it for now. Much more to come. Big thanks to the Canadian Municipal Barometer and the UofC Faculty of Arts for supporting this research. Thanks also to our partnership coordinator / survey programmer extraordinaire Reed Merrill, and to any Calgarians out there who completed our survey!

jacklucas.bsky.social
Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Oct 21
...and here are the feeling scores from the same survey respondents for the provincial parties. The averages are similar to the municipal parties, but notice the polarization in the distributions. Far fewer choose the middle option (5), and more (around one fifth) choose (0) for "strongly dislike."

jacklucas.bsky.social
Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Oct 21
...here are the feeling thermometer scores for the municipal parties, with the averages at the top, and then the full distribution down below. Notice that many, many respondents choose five on this scale, which in this setting is a bit like the survey-response equivalent of the shrug emoji (🤷).

jacklucas.bsky.social
Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Oct 21
Feeling thermometer (like/dislike) scales are a common way to measure how people feel about political parties. In Calgary, average feeling thermometer scores for the municipal parties were similar to average scores for provincial parties. But the distributions are very different...

jacklucas.bsky.social
Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Oct 21
Finally, municipal political parties. Calgarians have mixed views. Overwhelming majorities prefer independent candidates (the questions in the top row). But many also recognize the benefits of municipal parties, especially in the information they provide to voters (bottom centre and bottom right).

jacklucas.bsky.social
Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Oct 21
(Important note: these policy items were co-developed with my TERRIFIC students in an undergraduate seminar on public opinion and political representation at the University of Calgary; stay tuned for their very cool and much more in-depth analysis of these policy attitudes!)

jacklucas.bsky.social
Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Oct 21
OK, OK, I hear you saying — enough about ideology! Fine. How about some data on policy? Here's support for nine policy statements among Calgarians (in blue) and among supporters of each mayoral candidate (in black). Clear polarization on some issues. Striking ambivalence across the housing items.

jacklucas.bsky.social
Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Oct 21
Here's the proportion of Calgarians who supported each mayoral candidate, by their provincial party identity. Gondek and Sharp look like mirror images of each other in terms of NDP/UCP support, whereas Farkas enjoys at least *some* support among all of the partisan identities.

jacklucas.bsky.social
Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Oct 21
While we're on the subject of ideology, here's the probability of support for each candidate, conditional on Calgarians' own ideological self-placements. There's a strong relationship between ideology and support. But notice the higher support for Farkas on the left, in contrast to Davison/Sharp.

jacklucas.bsky.social
Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Oct 21
How have these perceptions shifted? This has been an important question in this election, especially for Farkas, and we can use 2021 CMES data to compare. According to Calgarians, Farkas has shifted dramatically to the centre, Davison has moved rightward, and Gondek has moved leftward.

jacklucas.bsky.social
Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Oct 21
Here's the average left-right placement for each candidate. Remember: these are Calgarians' perceptions; they may not align with how the candidates think of themselves. On average, Calgarians put Sharp, Davison, and Farkas on the right, Thiessen left of centre, and Gondek on the far left.

jacklucas.bsky.social
Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Oct 21
Now some results related to ideology. Here's how Calgarians placed each major mayoral candidate on the left-right spectrum. The most striking result to me: more than one fifth of Calgarians now place Jyoti Gondek at the most extreme left-wing position on the scale.

jacklucas.bsky.social
Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Oct 21
We'll know soon enough (I hope!) who Calgarians voted for in the mayoral race. But what about the candidates who Calgarians would NOT vote for? Here are the patterns of "negative voting" — the people for whom Calgarians would NOT vote — organized by supporters of each major mayoral candidate.

jacklucas.bsky.social
Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Oct 21
For the past year, I've been doing an embedded "ethnographic" study of Calgary's election. As a consequence, I've mostly kept quiet about it. It'll still be months before I have qualitative results to share, but in the meantime, here are some results from our pre-election survey. #yyccc #yycvote

jacklucas.bsky.social
Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Oct 19
Nerds: it's time for our Calgary municipal election forecasting contest! The winner gets a free copy of my forthcoming co-edited book, City Politics in Canada. Please share widely! #yyccc

survey.ucalgary.ca/jfe/form/SV_...
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jacklucas.bsky.social
Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Oct 15
We have a cover layout...blurbs and all! Very excited about this book: 320 pages of pure urban politics goodness. Coming in December. Co-edited with Martin Horak and @bigcitypolitics.bsky.social. utppublishing.com/doi/book/10....

Reposted by Jack Lucas

breunig.bsky.social
Christian Breunig @breunig.bsky.social · Oct 2
The @zeit.de has 3 pages on one of our PolPop articles, led by @jacklucas.bsky.social, where politicians reflect on our finding that they perceive voters differently than voters perceive themselves. Would love to see this more often, where the subjects get a chance to reflect on the findings.
Meinung über Wähler: Verachten Politiker uns? Womöglich gar: zu Recht?
Egoistisch, schlecht informiert, unsozial: So sehen Politiker laut einer Studie ihre Wähler.
www.zeit.de

Reposted by Alain Noël, Christian Breunig, Jack Lucas , and 1 more

liorsheffer.bsky.social
Lior Sheffer @liorsheffer.bsky.social · Nov 4
Now in APSR: What do politicians think about their voters? Fielding face-to-face surveys to 982 sitting politicians in 11 countries, and accompanying surveys of 12,000 citizens, we find that politicians have remarkably consistent - and cynical - theories of voters: /1
doi.org/10.1017/S000...