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Christian Breunig @breunig.bsky.social · 8d

The @zeit.de has 3 pages on one of our PolPop articles, led by @jacklucas.bsky.social, where politicians reflect on our finding that they perceive voters differently than voters perceive themselves. Would love to see this more often, where the subjects get a chance to reflect on the findings.

Meinung über Wähler: Verachten Politiker uns? Womöglich gar: zu Recht?

Egoistisch, schlecht informiert, unsozial: So sehen Politiker laut einer Studie ihre Wähler.

www.zeit.de

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Lior Sheffer @liorsheffer.bsky.social · Nov 4

Now in APSR: What do politicians think about their voters? Fielding face-to-face surveys to 982 sitting politicians in 11 countries, and accompanying surveys of 12,000 citizens, we find that politicians have remarkably consistent - and cynical - theories of voters: /1
doi.org/10.1017/S000...

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Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Jun 11

"Place Types." Excited that this paper with @sborwein.bsky.social is now available. We develop a new typology of place types in Canada at a fairly fine-grained level of geography, and then show how these place types relate to Canadian politics. doi.org/10.1017/S000...

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Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · Jun 11

#OpenAccess from @cjps-rcsp.bsky.social -

Place Types - cup.org/44cNqVq

"...we propose a new typology of geographic places for use in advancing Canadian politics research on the political effects of place..."

- @sborwein.bsky.social & @jacklucas.bsky.social

#FirstView

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Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Jun 9

Happy to report that this article is now available: doi.org/10.1017/S000.... See Tyler's thread below for more detail on the associated R package and interactive online app.

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Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · May 9

Really proud of my amazing students for their great work on this. Also very grateful to the 75 students in the course; not all of them chose to participate in the extracurricular writing-up-the-results phase, but all of them were critical to the data collection - and willing to try something new!

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Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · May 9

Excited to share a new working paper, co-authored with students in my undergraduate course on city politics. As part of the course, we did a field experiment to explore if (a) 311 calls increase issue responsiveness and (b) if this varies by neighbourhood.
lucasjacklucas.github.io/calgary311.pdf

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Zack Taylor @bigcitypolitics.bsky.social · Apr 29

Hot off the heels of yesterday's Canadian federal election Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social and I have updated our estimate of the size of the urban-rural divide in party support. The punchline: it hasn't gone away!

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Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Apr 29

Answer: No.

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Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Apr 28

Tonight’s most important question: will the anecdote that opens our article on the urban-rural divide survive another election cycle?

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Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Apr 17

Canadian Municipal Barometer online research talk next week. Should be fun! If you'd like to attend, send me an email and I'll share the link.

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Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Apr 9

We do this analysis with more than 40,000 distinct municipal policy attitude responses from the 2025 Canadian Municipal Barometer public opinion survey. If you'd like to explore these responses, you can do so using this app: cmb-bmc-municipal-policy-attitudes.share.connect.posit.cloud

Canadians' Municipal Policy Attitudes

cmb-bmc-municipal-policy-attitudes.share.connect.posit.cloud

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Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Apr 9

Using 40 municipal policy issues, we show that (a) municipal policy attitudes are strongly related to left-right ideology across lots of different "bread and butter" municipal issues but also that (b) ideological disagreement is dampened when an issue is framed as geographically proximate.

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Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Apr 9

Plenty of recent work has found that left-right ideology predicts municipal voting and policy attitudes. But urban political economy / interest groups / NIMBY / etc. literature suggests that local policy debates often aren't particularly ideological. This paper attempts to integrate these findings.

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Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Apr 9

"Geographic Proximity Dampens Ideological Disagreement on Municipal Policy Issues." New working paper with Martin Horak, Shanaya Vanhooren, and Dave Armstrong. Comments and feedback welcome! A brief description of what we're up to…
osf.io/preprints/os...

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Zack Taylor @bigcitypolitics.bsky.social · Apr 4

Very sad to hear of the passing yesterday of Warren Magnusson. He was a generous scholar, a brilliant political theorist, a captivating speaker, and deep believer in the emancipatory possibilities of the city. @uvic.ca #urbanpoltics

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Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Apr 3

There's also an online app that you can use to explore the data, available here: quantoid.shinyapps.io/cvpa_app/

Canadian Voting and Attitudes Project - Voting Analysis

quantoid.shinyapps.io

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Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Apr 3

More detail at Tyler's thread here: bsky.app/profile/tyle...

tylerromualdi.bsky.social @tylerromualdi.bsky.social · Apr 3

With the federal election approaching, I’m excited to share insights on how Canadians' vote intentions have shifted since 1945. This forthcoming CJPS paper, with @jacklucas.bsky.social, Dave Armstrong, and @eplusgg.bsky.social, features a public dataset, R package, and Shiny app—more details below!

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Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Apr 3

The remarkable case, as many others have noted, is the NDP. Just massively below historical numbers.

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Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Apr 3

Here's the same plot for the Conservatives. They're actually doing very well relative to historical vote intention.

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Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Apr 3

This new R package makes it easy to extract weighted annual estimates of vote intention for the major parties going back to the 1940s. For instance, here's annual vote intention for the Liberals, with a red line marking where they currently stand in the polls according to the 338 aggregator.

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tylerromualdi.bsky.social @tylerromualdi.bsky.social · Apr 3

With the federal election approaching, I’m excited to share insights on how Canadians' vote intentions have shifted since 1945. This forthcoming CJPS paper, with @jacklucas.bsky.social, Dave Armstrong, and @eplusgg.bsky.social, features a public dataset, R package, and Shiny app—more details below!

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Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Mar 28

We hope this will be useful for folks in the municipal sector in Canada but also for research and teaching (e.g. I'm already using it for an interactive classroom activity). We'll be adding more issues to the app as well as additional functionality, so if you have feature requests, please email us!

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Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Mar 28

New interactive app: explore Canadians' policy attitudes across many geographic and demographic characteristics on 40 distinct municipal policy statements, including housing, policing, active transportation, social policy, and much more: cmb-bmc-municipal-policy-attitudes.share.connect.posit.cloud

Canadians' Municipal Policy Attitudes

Please select one or more policy domains, and then choose a specific question from the drop-down menu below.

https://cmb-bmc-municipal-policy-attitudes.share.connect.posit.cloud/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=2025-03-28&utm_campaign=Welcome+to+the+Canadian+Municipal+Barometer+Newsletter+Bienvenue+à+la+lettre+d+information+du+Baromètre+municipal+du+Canada+

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Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Mar 25

If you'd like to read the paper, which is coauthored with @liorsheffer.bsky.social, Peter Loewen, Stefaan Walgrave, Karolin Soontjens, and many other terrific collaborators, it's available in open access here: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Politicians’ Theories of Voting Behavior | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core

Politicians’ Theories of Voting Behavior

www.cambridge.org

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Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Mar 25

Really enjoyed this conversation with @jerusalem.bsky.social about our new paper on politicians' theories of voting behaviour. Such a thrill to be a guest on one of my favourite podcasts! www.theatlantic.com/podcasts/arc...

Politicians Think Voters Are Dumb. Are They Right?

A striking new study reveals that elected officials have a far more pessimistic view of voter behavior than do citizens themselves.

www.theatlantic.com

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Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Mar 25

Swedish historical municipal council database, by Abrar Bawati et al. This is really something. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

The Swedish historical municipal council database

Local political assemblies often perform essential political and governing functions. We introduce the Swedish Municipal Council Database (SMCD), whic…

www.sciencedirect.com

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Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Mar 22

Great coauthors on this one: Sophie Borwein (@sborwein.bsky.social), Tyler Romualdi (on the market this year - hire him!), Zack Taylor, Dave Armstrong, and Katie McCoy.

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Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Mar 12

The Canadian Municipal Barometer now has a newsletter - if you're interested in occasional (three or four times per year) updates on the academic research and other work we're doing, please sign up at the link below. Thanks!
www.cmb-bmc.ca/newsletter/

Newsletter - CMB-BMC

Newsletter Stay informed and gain valuable insights by subscribing to our quarterly newsletter, where we share updates on all our latest tools and research: ...

www.cmb-bmc.ca

Jack Lucas @jacklucas.bsky.social · Mar 6

Coming up next week in the CMB Online Research series: Very interesting paper by @kaylynjschiff.bsky.social on AI in local government. Email me if you'd like to attend, and I'll share a link!

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