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justjoro.bsky.social
Joe Rowles
@justjoro.bsky.social
600 followers 240 following 900 posts
Writer, professor, bookseller. Work in/on MMQB, SI, Football Outsiders, Denver Post, Mile High Report. I dig tape, schemes, and numbers. I love tight ends. I root for underdog tales. https://linktr.ee/UnderdogTales
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justjoro.bsky.social
Joe Rowles @justjoro.bsky.social · 3h
Everyone's talking about Super Bowl contenders.

While things are still messy with 2/3rds of the NFL schedule to go, there's a ton of faux hope being sold to fans.

My look at who truly deserves a seat at the Table, and who’s on the Waiting List 👇

🔗 joerowles.substack.com?r=6dlr7t&utm...
justjoro.bsky.social
Joe Rowles @justjoro.bsky.social · 2h
The Broncos have 93 sacks since the start of the 2024 season, 28 more than any other team.
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justjoro.bsky.social
Joe Rowles @justjoro.bsky.social · 3h
Everyone's talking about Super Bowl contenders.

While things are still messy with 2/3rds of the NFL schedule to go, there's a ton of faux hope being sold to fans.

My look at who truly deserves a seat at the Table, and who’s on the Waiting List 👇

🔗 joerowles.substack.com?r=6dlr7t&utm...
Reposted by Joe Rowles
dustyevely.bsky.social
Dusty Evely 🎃 @dustyevely.bsky.social · 6h
I broke down a couple big plays from the Packers out of 12 personnel from this past weekend: the twirling checkdown to Jacobs & a diving catch from Kraft in the middle of the field. youtu.be/NDfqV2OFZDU
Packers Film Room: Two Big Plays out of 12 Personnel, 2025 Week 6
Today we're looking at two big gains from the Packers against the Bengals. Both came out of 12 personnel from the same concept, even if the execution was different.
youtu.be
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Reposted by Joe Rowles
ndjomo.bsky.social
Joe Mahoney @ndjomo.bsky.social · 2d
The Broncos are now the worst team in the league in terms of average KOR allowed.
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Reposted by Joe Rowles
denizselman33.bsky.social
Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 1d
Saquon Barkley is being contacted behind the LOS on 35.8% of his carries, 2nd most in NFL and also most in his career.

Saquon Barkley % of carries w/negative YBC
2021 (NYG) : 30.2%
2022 (NYG) : 22.4%
2023 (NYG) : 30.0%
2024 (PHI) : 24.3%
2025 (PHI) : 35.8% ⬅️
(NFL avg : 26%.)
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Reposted by Joe Rowles
natetice.bsky.social
Nate Tice @natetice.bsky.social · 23h
3 Seahawks play action passes all going for big gains against the Jags.

Can see how they use their TEs to create different protection looks off of the fake. Routes-wise it's the classics: Deep cover-Over combo, Sail vs. Quarters, and essentially a pop pass (w/ a great throw).
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Reposted by Joe Rowles
qbklass.bsky.social
Derrik Klassen @qbklass.bsky.social · 22h
Colts do a lot of little things well to get their guys open, i.e. Warren stuttering his release outside and having the inside TE run a corner route to hold/cut off the CB
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justjoro.bsky.social
Joe Rowles @justjoro.bsky.social · 8h
Who are the real Super Bowl contenders?

And who is just wasting our time?

I dive in 👇

open.substack.com/pub/joerowle...
The Table: Who’s Really Sitting Among the NFL’s Super Bowl 60 Contenders?
And Which Ones Are Just Lying to their Fans?
open.substack.com
justjoro.bsky.social
Joe Rowles @justjoro.bsky.social · 10h
Who are the real Super Bowl contenders?

And who is just wasting our time?

I dive in 👇

open.substack.com/pub/joerowle...
The Table: Who’s Really Sitting Among the NFL’s Super Bowl 60 Contenders?
And Which Ones Are Just Lying to their Fans?
open.substack.com
justjoro.bsky.social
Joe Rowles @justjoro.bsky.social · 14h
Justin Herbert has faced pressure on 43.21% of his dropbacks this season (105 pressures on 243 total dropbacks through Week 6 of the 2025 NFL regular season).

That's insane.
justjoro.bsky.social
Joe Rowles @justjoro.bsky.social · 19h
So far this season the Broncos defense has allowed opposing passers to complete 57.67% of their passes. The lowest mark in the league.
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justjoro.bsky.social
Joe Rowles @justjoro.bsky.social · 19h
The Broncos defense is generating a sack on 13.16% of their snaps.

No other team is exceeding 9.13%.
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Reposted by Joe Rowles
proant.bsky.social
Anthony (game script enthusiast) @proant.bsky.social · 1d
In 2024 (regular season & playoffs) Josh Allen was sacked 19 times, and had a pressure to sack rate of 9.0%

This year through 6 games he’s been sacked 12 times, and has a pressure to sack rate of 16.4% (3rd highest rate of his career and the highest since 2019)
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justjoro.bsky.social
Joe Rowles @justjoro.bsky.social · 2d
The Broncos are now the 11th best team by DVOA
aaronschatz.com
Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 2d
Check out the wild #Patriots splits in DVOA

Pass offense: 3rd
Run offense: 30th

Pass defense: 29th
Run defense: 9th

Overall: 18th

All DVOA numbers now updated here, including the Saints-Giants game that was missing for technical reasons.

ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
Team Total DVOA
Check out every NFL team's total DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). DVOA helps identify the top teams in the league using advanced analytics. %
ftnfantasy.com
justjoro.bsky.social
Joe Rowles @justjoro.bsky.social · 2d
Broncos now have a 65.9% chance to make the playoffs, and a 6.5% chance to play in Super Bowl 60.

They win it all in 2.5% of simulations. 🐴
aaronschatz.com
Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 2d
DVOA Playoff Odds now updated with Week 6, Chiefs up to 10.5% to win the Super Bowl.

ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LX
NFL playoff picture odds to win Super Bowl LIX based on DVOA and 25,000 weekly simulations.
ftnfantasy.com
Reposted by Joe Rowles
acosta32jp.bsky.social
JP Acosta @acosta32jp.bsky.social · 2d
This is real big boy QB'ing by Drake Maye. Protect the ball and slide into space, creating a throw and moving the chains on 3rd and long
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justjoro.bsky.social
Joe Rowles @justjoro.bsky.social · 3d
Good teams beat bad teams badly.

Today reveals that the Broncos defense is a "good team"

Denver's offense couldn't do jack against the most predictable and hapless defense in football.

Special teams blunders galore too.

Not great.
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justjoro.bsky.social
Joe Rowles @justjoro.bsky.social · 3d
The Jets and Justin Fields finished with -10 yards passing and -.4 yards per pass today.

Fields was sacked 9 times and completed 9 passes for 45 yards.

Breece Hall averaged 2.6 yards per rush with a long of 8.

Vance Joseph take a bow.
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justjoro.bsky.social
Joe Rowles @justjoro.bsky.social · 3d
I had 4 big questions coming into the Broncos Jet lag game.

Can the Broncos pass rush dictate the game? ✅
Can Denver cap the explosives? ✅
How does the Line look without Powers? 💩
Does Bo show growth after the best quarter of his career? 🫣

Win 13-11

joerowles.substack.com/p/how-do-the...
How do the Broncos avoid Jet lag in London?
Good teams beat bad teams badly, will Denver avoid a trap on foreign soil against the winless New York Jets?
joerowles.substack.com
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justjoro.bsky.social
Joe Rowles @justjoro.bsky.social · 3d
Broncos defense secures the win with a critical sack by Jonathon Cooper and Brandon Jones!
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justjoro.bsky.social
Joe Rowles @justjoro.bsky.social · 3d
This has not been a strong Sean Payton game.

Some of these 3rd down calls are... questionable, to say the least.
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justjoro.bsky.social
Joe Rowles @justjoro.bsky.social · 3d
Nik Bonitto continues his march towards the single season sack record.

8.5 in 6 games this season.
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justjoro.bsky.social
Joe Rowles @justjoro.bsky.social · 3d
Bo Nix had the right matchup with Courtland Sutton on Sherwood.

Has to throw an accurate pass, led his WR too far.
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justjoro.bsky.social
Joe Rowles @justjoro.bsky.social · 3d
Bo Nix in an obvious passing down:

Incomplete. Broncos will need to settle for a field goal down 11-10 to the Jets.
justjoro.bsky.social
Joe Rowles @justjoro.bsky.social · 3d
It's a bit surprising the Broncos haven't used empty more often against the Jets.

Gives Bo Nix easy reads and he can play point guard against the overmatched defenders.
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