This is a wild forecast discussion from NWS Chicago this morning.

mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.ph...

8 months ago I had a vision: what if we had a unified, track-based dataset of all severe events?

Still a lot of improvements I can make to the algorithm itself, but otherwise, looks like we have one now. I can't wait to see what we can do with this 👀

Out of all the stats that will be in history books from Melissa, this is the most astounding to me.

GLM data was recording a peak flash rate of 700 strikes per minute — nearly 12 per second — as it made landfall on Jamaica. That’s rewriting our understanding flash density in tropical cyclones.

Multi-panel view of the last few days of Hurricane Melissa:

↖️ GOES-19 infrared brightness temp
↗️ GOES-19 visible satellite
↙️ Hurricane hunter planes & flight paths
↘️ Recon-derived flight level wind swath
⬇️ Estimated minimum pressure from recon dropsondes

Thanks to some vigilant friends out there, I have a nearly-complete 87-hour radar loop of #Melissa 's approach to #Jamaica. The loop abruptly ends when the radar is lost (either loss of communication with it or loss of the actual structure).
bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/

Time-lapse of #Melissa becoming one of the strongest cyclones ever recorded in the Atlantic basin.

#hurricanemelissa #wx

Satellite loop of #Melissa reorganizing after exiting Jamaica

Hurricane Melissa this morning up until landfall.

Just incredible imagery of an historic storm.

#Melissa's landfall intensity of 185 mph/892 mb ties it with the Florida Key's Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 as the record minimum pressure of any TC making landfall *anywhere* the NATL basin. I feel for the residents of #Jamaica 😞

Zoomed in G19 visible meso loop courtesy of @cyclonicwx.bsky.social

12:24 PM EDT, 10/28: Infrared satellite imagery as #HurricaneMelissa skirts the Jamaican shore. The large feeder outer band, and symmetry of the core of the storm, is a classic example of a strong tropical cyclone.

Echoing colleagues: Think before you (re)post. #Melissa is about to impact a relatively poor part of Jamaica. I doubt we will know the true extent of the devastation for days or weeks.

Information vacuums fill with disinformation. Expect a lot of “breaking wind” on SM.

Map source: World Bank

Looking back at the rapid intensification of #Melissa, two things really stand out to me:
1) there were *5* consecutive six-hourly periods of RI
2) an RI period began when the storm was already at Category 4 intensity

The red entries here highlight when an RI period began (30+ kt in 24 hr).

1-minute #GOES19/#GOESEast Visible and Infrared images with plots of GLM Flash Points showed prolific lightning activity within the inner eyewall of Category 5 Hurricane #Melissa as it approaches the SW coast of Jamaica. Low-altitude mesovortices persist within the eye.

10:25 AM EDT, 10/28: #HurricaneMelissa dropsonde finds surface winds of 198 MPH in southern eyewall.

Wow. This is easily the most ridiculous dropsonde I’ve ever seen.

188 knot mean winds in the low-levels with gusts over 250 mph

Absolutely scary and historic hurricane headed into SW Jamaica this morning

10AM #Melissa Update: @53rdWRS and @NOAA_HurrHunter Hurricane Hunter aircraft find that Melissa continues to strengthen. Catastrophic winds are moving onshore southern Jamaica. THIS IS THE LAST CHANCE TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE! For more updates vis... https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1983173551319654668

892 mb and 185 mph. Very few places in the world in modern history have ever experienced what Jamaica is experiencing right now. Hurricanes of this magnitude directly hitting a major land mass are exceptionally rare.

And to think, the theoretical Maximum Potential Intensity in this area is somewhere around 875 mb (+/-), and Melissa is currently sporting observed pressures of roughly 892-893 mb…

Makes one wonder just how close to the physical limit Melissa will get. We’ll have a lot to learn from this one storm.

With a central pressure down to 896mb as of 9am EDT, #Melissa has joined the elite sub-900mb group of Atlantic hurricanes... it is now one of just seven:

Wilma 2005: 882mb
Gilbert 1988: 888mb
Labor Day 1935: 892mb
Rita 2005: 895mb
Milton 2024: 895mb
Melissa 2025: 896mb
Allen 1980: 899mb

#Melissa unfortunately is still intensifying. A 9am EDT Tropical Cyclone Update indicates that winds are up to 180 mph, with an estimated minimum pressure of 896 mb.

You can see how GLM lightning has 📈 in the past hour, encircling the eye, with eye WV temp still increasing!

8:53 AM EDT, 10/28: #HurricaneMelissa is strengthening right up to landfall over #Jamaica, which will be the latest #Category5 landfall for the #AtlanticBasin. Maximum sustained winds of 175 MPH, and 901 mb central pressure (possibly lower) are also among the top 10 intensities. Godspeed #Jamaica.

This meso loop of #Melissa from CIRA is absolutely stunning at it makes its closes in on landfall in southwestern Jamaica.

rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/...

#hurricanemelissa

You VERY rarely ever see a satellite presentation like this anywhere in the world. And you certainly don't expect to see it this close to a mountainous island.
As of 5am EDT on Tuesday, #Melissa is the 8th strongest Atlantic hurricane on record by central pressure (901 mb).

At 901 millibars minimum central barometric pressure, #Melissa is the strongest hurricane ever recorded so late in a season in the Atlantic. It is also the 8th strongest Atlantic #hurricane during any part of the season. It is now sadly moving north-northeast towards #Jamaica.