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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 1h

In that case, Putin will likely have to say goodbye to the Tartus Naval Base and the Khmeimim Air Base.

Both are pretty irreplaceable, at least unless the Russians manage to significantly prop up their presence in Tobruk, Libya.

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 2h

Most likely Mers El-Kébir, from where the Algerian Navy operates its own six Kilo-class submarines.

bsky.app/profile/rfno...

Russia Maritime Watch @rfnosblog.bsky.social · Sep 4

Based on anticipated submarine activity in the Ionian Sea, it is plausible that the merchant vessel *Lauga* may have rendezvoused with the Russian sub currently assessed to be operating in the area. Next stop for Novorossiysk could likely be #Algeria.

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 4h

This is one of the most easily-readable macroeconomic assessments of the Russian economy that I have read for a while. Thundering applause!

Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 6h

I wrote a thing! Please read. And then please clap 👏

open.substack.com/pub/thepeopl...

Russia’s Economic Tailspin

Putin is out of money and time.

open.substack.com

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 1d

On Telegram, the 'Typical Voronezh' channel claims that the Buturlinovsky and Borisoglebsk Districts are facing an "immediate UAV strike".

There are no oil refineries in that area, but the drones could be aimed at the Borisoglebsk Air Base or, perhaps, the 500kV Balashovskaya electrical substation.

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 1d

If true, I doubt that they are aimed at the Crimean Bridge itself. Probably rather electrical infrastructure and surviving fuel depots.

But who knows? All those memes need to lead to a proper conclusion.

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 1d

Number three is the HDMS Peder Skram, a now-retired frigate of the Royal Danish Navy.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HDMS_Pe...

HDMS Peder Skram (F352) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 1d

I tend to agree - often short and factual.

Curiously, last time only ZAP reported the passage despite the unusual array of NATO assets in the area (including an E-3 Sentry and an A400M from the German Air Force as well as the NRP Setúbal). I had expected more coverage.

zap.aeiou.pt/submarino-ru...

"É grave": submarino russo em risco de explosão. Estará perto de Portugal

Novorossiysk visto a passar por Gibraltar há apenas quatro dias. A tripulação não consegue resolver os “graves problemas técnicos”.

zap.aeiou.pt

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 1d

Portuguese news often report how the military has tracked the 'Novorossiysk' somewhere in the local EEZ. There was a lot of activity during its last passage.

Still, the closest thing to a confirmation of any fuel accident so far is the fact that the BSF HQ has denied it.

bsky.app/profile/paxl...

Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 15d

An unidentified aircraft from Beja Air Base is currently circling over the exact area where the Russian ships 'RN Neptune' and 'Lauga' are located, possibly escorting the accident-affected (?) Kilo-class submarine 'Novorossiysk'.

Probably a P-3 Orion from 601st Squadron of the Portuguese Air Force.

Unidentified aircraft 'Herky76' flying off the coast of Sines, Portugal. Likely keeping an eye on Russian naval movements in the area.

Russian vessel 'Lauga', in the company of 'RN Neptune' and possibly the Kilo-class submarine 'Novorossiysk'. The latter is rumoured to have recently suffered an accident in the Mediterranean and may be limping homewards.

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 2d

There are several options. Some of the more inconvenient substations to lose would probably be the ones at Krasnoperekopsk and Dzhankoy in northern Crimea as well as the one just east of the Ohotnikova Solar Station near Saky Air Base.

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 2d

The Ukrainian strikes against the 330kV substation at Simferopol and the 220kV 'Kafa' substation near Feodosia may prove devastating for the electricity grid on Crimea.

Without these two electrical nodal points, much of the peninsula will be confined to cold and darkness.

bsky.app/profile/did:...

Map of the electricity grid on Crimea. Purple and red lines are the main connections.

Source: https://openinframap.org/

Map of the electricity grid near Simferopol on Crimea. Purple and red lines are the main connections.

Source: https://openinframap.org/

Map of the electricity grid next to the Tavricheskaya Power Plant near Simferopol on Crimea. The electrical substation just to the southwest of it was reportedly hit by a Ukrainian attack on 13 October 2025. Purple and red lines are the main ones.

Source: https://openinframap.org/

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 2d

Ouch! The Kafa substation is a bit of a bottleneck for electricity supply in Crimea. This will hurt.

Feodosia is also traditionally one of the most Russian-populated cities in Crimea. How long before waves of emigration start in earnest?

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 2d

"Summer blend diesel starts to form wax crystals around -15°C (5°F), which clogs fuel filters".

There is a very real chance that many Russian car owners will soon find their fuel tanks filled with an ice-cold substance vaguely resembling blackcurrant jam.

malcontentment.com/russian-oil-...

Russian Oil Refineries Beyond the Breaking Point as Shortages Spread

A major accident at the Yaroslavl Oil Refinery adds to Russian gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel woes.

malcontentment.com

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 2d

It will get worse, significantly worse. Russian oil refineries are currently switching from production of summer diesel to winter diesel - and it is not going very well.

www.oreanda-news.com/en/tek/stock...

Stock prices for diesel fuel in Russia soared

The cost of diesel fuel on the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange soared to a maximum in two years

www.oreanda-news.com

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 3d

Let us give due credit here: The geolocation in question was made by @blinzka on Twitter (also here on Bluesky as @blinzka.bsky.social).

Screenshot of geolocation of Ukrainian strike against the Smolensk Aviation Plant, October 2025, by @Blinzka on Twitter - https://x.com/blinzka/status/1977128280336793837

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 3d

Ukrainian drones appear to have hit the Smolensk Aviation Plant. It manufactures Kh-59 missiles, which have been used in several attacks against Ukraine.

bsky.app/profile/baba...

Baba Yaga Fèlla @babayagafella.bsky.social · 3d

Local residents report explosions in Smolensk, a UAV threat has been declared in the region, smoke is rising over the city.

GEOINT specialist Blinzka, having geolocated the filming location, concluded that the smoke most likely rises from the area of the airfield and the

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 3d

The roads near Rylsk have some interesting dining options. With smashing reviews.

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 3d

Not so fast - CyberBoroshno claims that the AVT-5 unit at the nearby Bashneft-Novoil refinery was hit.

It cannot yet confirm earlier reports about a strike at the Bashneft-UNPZ, also in Ufa.

It is all a bit confusing now, but we should know more soon.

bsky.app/profile/citi...

Citizen Snippy △ @citizensnippy.bsky.social · 4d

Just noticed CyberBoroshno believes it was Novoil.

t.me/kiber_borosh...

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 4d

Haha! Perhaps something impeded their uploads?

english.nv.ua/russian-war/...

Internet outages in Russia surge as Ukrainian drones target infrastructure

Mass Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s critical infrastructure have caused major internet disruptions, leaving parts of the country without stable connections for months, the Financial Times reporte...

english.nv.ua

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 4d

Yeah, that cluster of oil refineries near Ufa can be super confusing.

CyberBoroshno's claim is interesting, but other news articles and social media posts I have seen so far only mention the UNPZ.

Did they really get two this time? Hopefully so!

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 4d

Did he not make a mistake this time? It was reportedly the Bashneft-UNPZ that was hit, not the Bashneft-Novoil facility.

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 4d

I know the Internet is obsessed with Flamingos, but those AN-196 Liutyi drones really deserve some love too. They have been the bane of Russian oil refineries so far.

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 4d

The UNPZ is in the fourth row, second from the left. The other one is a nearby oil refinery, also in Ufa - they are easy to confuse.

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 4d

The Bashneft-UNPZ refinery was also hit last month, but the destruction today of its AVT-6 unit - if confirmed - is bad news for Russians looking for petrol or diesel.

bsky.app/profile/paxl...

Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 10d

Time for an updated bingo card! Again, all credit goes to the original author of the work, @KHoholenko on Twitter.

In the quoted post, you may find my original recommendations on useful resources when monitoring Ukraine's progress in destroying Russian oil refineries. 1/4

bsky.app/profile/paxl...

'Bingo card' with Russian oil refineries, updated 4 October 2025. Source: https://x.com/KHoholenko/status/1974313946304905510/photo/1

(NB: After this illustration was published on Twitter, another attack took place against the Kstovo Refinery on 5 October 2025.)

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 4d

The Russian military uses fuel?

Horse pulling a wagon made of the remnants of a DDR-made Trabant car.

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 4d

You remember this one?

bsky.app/profile/arrd...

Arr David @arrdavid.bsky.social · 13d

Sting, a Ukrainian interceptor drone especially built for an all-female air defence team led by a female commander.
"How would you like it to look?"
"Ohhh, like a flying pink dildo of death and destruction".

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