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Alan Manning
@alanmanning4.bsky.social
1.3K followers 2 following 21 posts

Labour market economist at CEP and LSE. Personal views only

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Alan Manning is a British economist and professor of economics at the London School of Economics.

Source: Wikipedia
Economics 68%
Political science 14%
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Alan Manning @alanmanning4.bsky.social · Sep 10
Lots of articles in recent weeks - including the FT - abt the public conflating immigration as a whole with asylum-seekers. But then we have headlines like this...
www.ft.com/content/b9da...
Asylum seekers to be housed in barracks as Keir Starmer seeks to tackle immigration
UK government confirms it is looking at interpretation of ECHR after prime minister carries out cabinet reshuffle
www.ft.com
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Alan Manning @alanmanning4.bsky.social · Sep 5
Isn’t it arguable that it was the liberalisations of the Tories under Boris (later partially reversed) that contributed to their destruction.

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

Alan Manning @alanmanning4.bsky.social · Aug 13
Yet another article about worker shortages that fails to tell us about offered pay and conditions. Please journalist - just ask. Or, failing that, look at online job ads. Its not hard. www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Dairy farmers say worker shortage is threatening UK food security
The Arla cooperative says five in six farmers receive very few or zero applications for job vacancies
www.theguardian.com
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Reposted by Alan Manning, Frank Laczko

cep-lse.bsky.social
Centre for Economic Performance @cep-lse.bsky.social · May 14
In a new blog @alanmanning4.bsky.social explains why change was needed to the "seriously flawed" social care visa route and how the government now needs to deliver on its promise to make care work a more attractive job.

blogs.lse.ac.uk/poli...
Why the social care visa had to go - British Politics and Policy at LSE
Labour's immigration White Paper has proposed closing the social care visa route for workers from overseas. This was a needed change to a flawed system.
blogs.lse.ac.uk
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Alan Manning @alanmanning4.bsky.social · May 14
Why the social care visa had to go. TLDR; in long-run it’s an expensive and ineffective way to hire care workers.

blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
blogs.lse.ac.uk
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Alan Manning @alanmanning4.bsky.social · May 13
Great to finally see data like this being published. Though more data means more opportunities for cherry-picking so look out for that. www.gov.uk/government/p...
Sponsored Work and Family visa earnings, employment and Income Tax
www.gov.uk
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Alan Manning @alanmanning4.bsky.social · Feb 26
‪Great to hear from @sarahoconnorft.ft.com ft.ft.com
abt what happened to the UK truck driver shortage. Short-run: higher pay helped a lot. Medium-run: still structural issues making it hard to offer competitive pay and conditions.
www.ft.com/content/f320...
Whatever happened to the great truck driver shortage?
The underlying problems behind the crisis have not yet been resolved
www.ft.com
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Reposted by Alan Manning, Andreas Kotsadam, Martin Halla , and 2 more

fjaellegaard.bsky.social
Mathias Fjællegaard Jensen @fjaellegaard.bsky.social · Feb 21
1/ 🚨 New paper! 🚨
How do the economic trajectories of children of immigrants vary across 15 high-income countries? We study intergenerational mobility of immigrants, using individual-level linked parent-child data across Europe, North America, and beyond. 🧵👇 #EconSky
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Alan Manning @alanmanning4.bsky.social · Feb 18
Latest paper on comparing intergenerational mobility of the kids of migrants with kids of locals in 15 countries. It has a very long author list so I feel like a real scientist at last. www.iza.org/publications...
docs.iza.org
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Alan Manning @alanmanning4.bsky.social · Jan 3
Good to see this happening. Important to have right not rushed decision. And that the labour market in social care is part of remit as current model doesn’t work. Lab mkt wasn’t really in Dilnot report as not part of their commission www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
Cross-party talks on adult social care reform in England to start next month
Wes Streeting hit back at claims that Casey commission would take too long to act, saying ‘it’s reporting next year’
www.theguardian.com
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Reposted by Marina Della Giusta

Alan Manning @alanmanning4.bsky.social · Dec 12
New discussion paper with @tessahall.bsky.social on immigration and productivity.

TLDR;

Evidence consistent with view nothing especially good (or bad) about migrants; they are only human

cep.lse.ac.uk/_NEW/PUBLICA...
Only human? Immigration and firm productivity in Britain
This paper estimates the impact of migration on productivity by estimating production functions for British firms. We find that much of the apparent higher productivity of migrants is the result of sorting across areas, industries, and firms. If we include firm fixed effects, the estimated productivity advantage of migrants over locals is not significantly different from zero. One possible interpretation of our results is that migrants and locals with similar skills are equally productive; there is nothing distinctive about migrants. However, since productivity estimates are imprecise after controlling for firm fixed effects, we also can't reject the hypothesis that migrants and locals differ in their productivity.
cep.lse.ac.uk
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Alan Manning @alanmanning4.bsky.social · Dec 10
Good col from @sarahoconnorft.bsky.social. I think a lot of motivated reasoning on immig. Too many commentators start from view immig is good (or bad), then use any argument that comes to mind to make preferred case without bothering much about intellectual inconsistency
www.ft.com/content/2bb6...
Economists need to get their story straight on immigration
Focusing on the impact on the wages or employment levels of native workers is too narrow
www.ft.com
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Alan Manning @alanmanning4.bsky.social · Oct 25
I think this might be the first sighting of the word monopsony in the Guardian. Though it’s in inverted commas so some way still to acceptance. amp.theguardian.com/sport/2024/o...
Explained: why the UFC is set to pay $260m to fighters after a decade-long lawsuit | UFC | The Guardian
A judge has granted preliminary approval for a settlement between the MMA promotion and fighters who claim they were underpaid. Here’s what happened
amp.theguardian.com
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Reposted by Alan Manning

cep-lse.bsky.social
Centre for Economic Performance @cep-lse.bsky.social · Oct 18
“There is legitimate concern that zero-hours contracts are used to shift risk from employers onto lower-paid workers” @alanmanning4.bsky.social

in CentrePiece magazine:

cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/d...

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Alan Manning @alanmanning4.bsky.social · Oct 16
Separate Scottish visa a bad idea unless v small pilot for remote areas. If scotland has demographic problem its long-term. Temporarily increasing population doesnt solve it. Migrants on a visa like this are likely to leave when they can. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
UK government not considering Scottish visa to attract migrants - BBC News
Sir Keir Starmer has been urged to transfer powers to the Scottish government to help address labour shortages.
www.bbc.co.uk
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Reposted by Alan Manning

benansell.bsky.social
Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · Oct 10
Perhaps this won't go quite as viral as an exploding cow but Rethink Immigration is on at 4pm today on Radio 4, where I'm joined by the dream team of @sundersays.bsky.social, Rob Colvile, Madeleine Sumption and @alanmanning4.bsky.social.

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m...
BBC Sounds - Rethink, Rethink... immigration
Is the UK more divided than ever over immigration, or are there areas of consensus?
www.bbc.co.uk
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Alan Manning @alanmanning4.bsky.social · Oct 9
Yes. When employers struggling to recruit they will often look to immigration to solve problem as they don’t like raising wages. Challenge for migration policy is to make sure there is some pressure to raise wages but not so much pressure they can’t cope
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Alan Manning @alanmanning4.bsky.social · Oct 4
Sometimes nominal - think of P&O on Dover-Calais ferries - but probably more common to be real. Pressure on employers to raise wages is reduced if easy access to new workers even if they don’t cut nominal.
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Alan Manning @alanmanning4.bsky.social · Oct 4
Errr I think this piece is over-simplified. A better framing is immigration can be used to reduce wages but doesn’t have to. And perhaps our immigration policy should make sure it doesn’t.
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Reposted by Alan Manning, Luke Sibieta, Sarah Hall

anandmenon.bsky.social
Anand Menon @anandmenon.bsky.social · Oct 4
I wrote quite a personal piece about racism now and racism then. Have a read…. www.tortoisemedia.com/2024/10/04/a...
Anand Menon on racism: the UK has made progress, but this year's riots show there's a long way to go - Tortoise
One of Britain's leading public intellectuals reflects on how racism – and his experience of it – has changed over the last 50 years
www.tortoisemedia.com
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Alan Manning @alanmanning4.bsky.social · Sep 30
Not sure I get the economics of HO Impact Assessment on cost to business of higher salary thresholds on work visas. Seems to be mostly transfers from profits to migrant workers (who are now residents) which gets scored as big cost. Perhaps I'm missing something; help!
www.ft.com/content/e2df...
Overseas student and worker curbs will cost UK business £40bn, say official estimates
Home Office assessments come as new Labour government presses ahead with curbs on immigration
www.ft.com

Alan Manning @alanmanning4.bsky.social · Sep 20
Robert Jenrick offers "concrete cap" on net migration. Can have caps on immigration (at least managed part) but absent controls on emigration cannot have cap, concrete or otherwise, on net migration www.ft.com/content/5d26...
Robert Jenrick accuses UK Treasury of ‘gaslighting’ over benefits of migration
Tory leadership frontrunner says GDP figures ‘juiced up’ by arrivals
www.ft.com

Alan Manning @alanmanning4.bsky.social · Sep 17
No great secrets here. Similar episodes have always ended with agreements, often a bit dodgy, with countries of departure. Offshore processing has been tried a few times, never worked even in australia where its agreement with indonesia which did trick www.theguardian.com/world/2024/s...
How has Italy sought to cut irregular migration and could UK copy the policy?
Tunisia and Libya deals appear to have reduced small-boat crossings under Giorgia Meloni’s hard-right government
www.theguardian.com

Alan Manning @alanmanning4.bsky.social · Sep 16
Understand why you might think this a terrible decision. But wish article wld mention the uncomfortable trade-offs here. 59 year old with adult dependent may have big long- term fiscal cost tho details matter. All countries wrestling with this trade-off www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024...
Valued GP ‘will be forced to leave UK’ after autistic daughter refused visa
London-based doctor Tajwer Siddiqui says Home Office rules are separating him from his wife and Alina, 19
www.theguardian.com

Alan Manning @alanmanning4.bsky.social · Sep 10
Update to earlier work with Madeleine Sumption and Tessa Hall on projecting UK net migration. Will fall this year but not as much as earlier estimates as work visas still high and more students staying on . The crystal ball picture is appropriate migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/re...
Why are the latest net migration figures not a reliable guide to future trends? - Migration Observatory
This report examines how different types of immigration contribute to net migration in the long term, and what levels of net migration the UK might expect in coming years.
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk
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Alan Manning @alanmanning4.bsky.social · Sep 8
This doesnt stand much scrutiny. Of 4 big liberalistations - HK,UKR,students, social care - only last cld be argued to be Brexit connected and numbers of migrants in social care far exceeded any loss of EU workers. Arguably more connected to austerity though. www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/poli...
Tony Blair: ‘Brexit failed – and it triggered mass immigration’
Exclusive interview: Former prime minister lambasts Boris Johnson for promising to ‘take back control’ of migration but instead ‘replacing young Europeans with older immigrants from Africa and Asia’ –...
www.independent.co.uk