Samuel Bentolila
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samben8.bsky.social
Samuel Bentolila
@samben8.bsky.social
Economics 59%
Political science 15%
🚨 New working paper!

How well do people predict the results of studies?

@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇

Reposted by Samuel Bentolila

China’s export machine is a wake-up call for other nations. But it requires targeted and separate responses for national security, innovation, and jobs—objectives that are too often conflated. My latest. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/c...
How to Respond to Chinese Imports
Dani Rodrik explains what governments should be doing to address the risks to national security, innovation, and jobs.
www.project-syndicate.org

In this new working paper @yaninadomenella.bsky.social and I study how intensive support can help people with intellectual and developmental disabilities find jobs. Spoiler: it not only does but also significantly raises their well-being
New Working Paper! 📢
Read it here: cemfi.es/ftp/wp/2528....

Reposted by Samuel Bentolila

New Working Paper! 📢
Read it here: cemfi.es/ftp/wp/2529....

Reposted by Samuel Bentolila

New Working Paper! 📢
Read it here: cemfi.es/ftp/wp/2528....

Reposted by Samuel Bentolila

There are huge differences in death rates from road injuries, even across high-income countries
How much does out-of-school learning influence foreign-language acquisition? Our new analysis shows that historical national decisions to subtitle imported TV content systematically result in a large positive effect on English-language skills.

open.substack.com/pu...

Reposted by Samuel Bentolila

Depressing new evidence on work conditions for Amazon delivery drivers (and interesting comparisons with UPS), by Danny Schneider and David Weil theconversation.com/the-unraveli...
The unraveling of workplace protections for delivery drivers: A tale of 2 workplace models
A first-of-its-kind study finds Amazon’s delivery drivers earn less and face more instability than their unionized counterparts.
theconversation.com

Reposted by Samuel Bentolila

Democracies tend to have lower levels of corruption

Reposted by Samuel Bentolila

The EU is running a tight race to the bottom with the US for fiscal insolvency. Here is a great summary of the situation, and how much fiscal adjustment is required by country:
pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...
pubs.aeaweb.org

Reposted by Samuel Bentolila

🚨Fascinating research alert 🚨

"This paper explores how the proportion of teenagers skipping school has changed following the COVID-19 pandemic across the developed world.

We find that this problem is mainly confined to industrialised English-speaking nations, especially affecting teenage girls."

Reposted by Samuel Bentolila

CEMFI @cemfi.es · 20d
How does after-school childcare affect children's human capital investment?

JMC Sevin Kaytan finds that after-school childcare increases university graduation rates by reshaping children's beliefs and preferences through peer interactions in care centers

sevinkaytan.com

Reposted by Samuel Bentolila

📢𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗲 𝗼𝗳 #𝗝𝗣𝗘𝗩𝗔𝗟 𝗶𝘀 𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲!

📚It brings together research on:

• Institutionalization and digitalization of evaluation
• Employment and social protection policies
• Care and gender equality
• AI applied to evaluation

👉 polipapers.upv.es/index.php/jp...

Reposted by Samuel Bentolila

CEMFI @cemfi.es · 21d
🎓 Thinking about grad studies in #Economics or #Finance?
Applications to CEMFI’s Master and Doctoral programs open soon!

📅 Applications open Nov 11, 2025
💰 Funding deadline Jan 31, 2026
🕓 Final deadline May 31, 2026

👉 Learn more: www.cemfi.es/programs/mas...
📧 [email protected]

Reposted by Samuel Bentolila

CEMFI @cemfi.es · 21d
What limits agricultural mechanization in Africa?

JMC Sophie Nottmeyer finds that digital monitoring reduces moral hazard between owners and operators in tractor rental markets in Kenya, improving spatial allocation and raising agricultural productivity.

sophienottmeyer.github.io
Just out in the New York Times:

My op-ed on the limits of data-privacy and the need for democratic control in the age of AI.

www.nytimes.com/2025/11/02/o...

@nytimes.com @nytopinion.nytimes.com
Opinion | A.I. Is Deciding Who You Are
In the age of A.I., personal data is anything but personal.
www.nytimes.com
Dropping a beta version of this page while everyone is up and processing baseball!

This tool lets you search the full text of papers from the American Economic Review, American Economic Journal series, and over 30,000 NBER working papers.

paulgp.com/econlit-pipe...
Economics Literature Search
Full-text search across 15,000+ papers from top economics journals and NBER working papers. Track how empirical methods have evolved over time.
paulgp.com
How do durables affect consumption smoothing? Asymmetric information lowers their value as a smoothing tool. We measure lemons penalty for cars using Danish data and show income shocks sustain used car market @richardblundell.bsky.social @ran-gu.bsky.social buff.ly/3j30eyQ
Can schools change faith? Benjamin Arold, @woessmann.bsky.social & Larissa Zierow find that ending mandatory #ReligiousEducation reduces adult #religiosity by 7%. Students earn more, work longer hours, but pray less and skip church.
doi.org/10.3368/jhr....

Reposted by Samuel Bentolila

CEMFI @cemfi.es · 27d
New Working Paper! 📢
Read it here: www.cemfi.es/ftp/wp/2507....
David Martinez-Miera & Carlos Sunyer examine how an increase in political polarisation impacts a region's capacity to attract human capital. They leverage Spain's centralised system of medical resident placements and the 2017 Catalonia referendum as a case study.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

Reposted by Samuel Bentolila

CEMFI @cemfi.es · 28d
Rafael Repullo has been awarded an honorary doctorate by the University of Málaga
www.cemfi.es/all_news_blo...
Hi! Since others are talking about my book, thought I'd share a little about it. The book is a love letter to women everywhere wondering why their time just isn't adding up. It turns out, it's not you! We are getting massively squeezed by structural changes! 🧵
www.amazon.com/Having-All-T...
Elon Musk's involvement in politics really hurt Tesla sales.

"Without the Musk partisan effect, Tesla sales between October 2022 and April 2025 would have been 67-83% higher, equivalent to 1-1.26 million more vehicles."
In response to anti-DEI legislation in the states, universities have started to hire more white male faculty.

This increase starts before bills are signed into law.

Universities appear to be anticipating anti-DEI legislation and preemptively hiring more white men.
Documento Ocasional: “¿Qué políticas son efectivas para reducir la exclusión social? Evaluación de cinco proyectos piloto de inclusión social a través de ensayos aleatorizados" www.bde.es/wbe/es/publi... #bdePublicaciones#bdePublicaciones
¿Qué políticas son efectivas para reducir la exclusión social? Evaluación de cinco proyectos piloto de inclusión social a través de ensayos aleatorizados
¿Qué políticas son efectivas para reducir la exclusión social? Evaluación de cinco proyectos piloto de inclusión social a través de ensayos aleatorizados
www.bde.es