Stefano DellaVigna
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sdellavi.bsky.social
Stefano DellaVigna
@sdellavi.bsky.social
690 followers 34 following 2 posts

Behavioral economists at UC Berkeley

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Economics 32%
Business 27%
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Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna

michaeleddy.bsky.social
Michael Eddy @michaeleddy.bsky.social · 1d
Dunning-Kruger effect in practice:

In 53k forecasts across 100 projects, people who are more confident are actually much less accurate.

New 📄 by @evavivalt.bsky.social & @sdellavi.bsky.social

Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna

briannosek.bsky.social
Brian Nosek @briannosek.bsky.social · 1d
Very interesting work by @evavivalt.bsky.social and @sdellavi.bsky.social. Particularly intriguing is the finding that a surprising negative relationship between confidence and accuracy is accounted for by a subset of persistently overconfident forecasters.
evavivalt.bsky.social Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 1d
🚨 New working paper!

How well do people predict the results of studies?

@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇

Reposted by Michael Barnett, Brian A. Nosek, David McKenzie , and 7 more

evavivalt.bsky.social
Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 1d
🚨 New working paper!

How well do people predict the results of studies?

@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇

Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna

Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna, Mark J. Brandt

gordpennycook.bsky.social
Gordon Pennycook @gordpennycook.bsky.social · Sep 22
Excited to announce our amazing lineup of speakers for the 2026 JDM preconference at SPSP!

Conference date: Feb 26th
Location: Chicago
Deadline to apply: Oct 23rd.

Application link: spsp.wufoo.com/forms/2026-p...

cc: @sdellavi.bsky.social, @hirshmansam.bsky.social, @vinisingh.bsky.social

Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna, Michael A. Clemens

justinwolfers.bsky.social
Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · Sep 20
Not quite sure how to put it all in words, but I just spent an extraordinary day celebrating my dissertation adviser, Larry Katz. Feeling grateful, proud, and (re-) inspired.

Larry has raised so many extraordinary economists that being in the same room as them was overwhelming.

Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna

socscipredict.bsky.social
Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP) @socscipredict.bsky.social · Sep 4
📣 Interested in making more forecasts? Want to get paid for doing so? Apply for the SSPP Forecasting Panel! Panelists receive $400 a year + a $300 bonus for high accuracy.

Apply here: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/09...

@cega-uc.bsky.social @evavivalt.bsky.social @sdellavi.bsky.social
Apply to Join our SSPP Forecasting Panel 2.0!
Would you like to stay informed about the latest developments in social science research, assess your forecasting accuracy, and receive financial compensation for your participation in the process? Ap...
socialscienceprediction.org

Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna

Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna, Michael Kevane, Climent Quintana‐Domeque , and 2 more

tedmiguel.bsky.social
Ted Miguel @tedmiguel.bsky.social · Aug 3
Nobel prize winner George Akerlof (my former colleague) on the firing of statistics officials:

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/03/o...
Opinion | What to Do When the President Acts Like a Five-Year-Old?
www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Christian Odendahl, Margaret Mitchell, Richard S.J. Tol , and 46 more

dynarski.bsky.social
Prof Dynarski @dynarski.bsky.social · Aug 2
Statement from the largest economics association about the BLS firing

As context: AEA approximately never makes such public statements

This is a big deal
August 1, 2025 AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION Committee on Economic Statistics and Committee on Government Relations Statement from the American Economic Association on the Dismissal of the BLS Commissioner Leaders of the American Economic Association express their grave concern over the dismissal of the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) earlier today. The independence of the federal statistical agencies is essential to the proper functioning of a modern economy. Accurate, timely, and impartial statistics are the foundation upon which households, businesses, and policymakers make critical decisions. Undermining the independence or credibility of these agencies threatens the integrity of the information that markets, institutions, and the public rely on every day. Measuring the vast and dynamic U.S. economy in real time is inherently challenging. It is standard practice for statistical estimates to be revised as more complete and higher-quality data become available. These revisions reflect the commitment of statistical agencies to accuracy, transparency, and methodological rigor-not failure or bias. The BLS has long had a well-deserved reputation for professional excellence and nonpartisan integrity. Safeguarding this tradition is vital for the continued health of the U.S. economy and public trust in our institutions. We call upon elected officials to respect and preserve the independence of the nation's statistical infrastructure. Lawrence Katz President, American Economic Association Katharine Abraham President-Elect, American Economic Association Karen Dynan Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Economic Statistics Kenneth Troske Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Government Relations

Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna, Muriel Niederle

alroth.bsky.social
Al Roth @alroth.bsky.social · Mar 20
👏
marketdesigner.blogspot.com/2025/03/lise...
Lise Vesterlund is celebrated at the Copenhagen Business School
marketdesigner.blogspot.com

Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna

evavivalt.bsky.social
Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · Jul 10
New short meta-survey on the SSPP: can you predict how well people predict?

Try your hand at it:
socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/0f... @socscipredict.bsky.social @sdellavi.bsky.social
Forecasting the SSPP Research Results
Increasingly, researchers gather forecasts ex ante about the results of their research studies. Ex post, this allows for a comparison with the results to gauge contributions to the literature. But wha...
socialscienceprediction.org

Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna

Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna

Reposted by David Dunning, Stefano DellaVigna, Kevin Milligan

justinwolfers.bsky.social
Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · May 24
I have both *thoughts* and *feelings* about Trump attacking Harvard. And I want to share them with you.

Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna

Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna

socscipredict.bsky.social
Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP) @socscipredict.bsky.social · May 7
🏆 Winner Announced! 🏆

Congratulations to Alexander Coutts & Séverine Toussaert — winners of the 2025 SSPP Outstanding Use of Forecasts Award ($10,000) for “Beliefs about choice reversals”!

See the winning survey here: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/f6...
Beliefs about choice reversals
In this study, you will submit a total of 21 forecasts related to how individuals make choices about future work allocations, what they believe about their future work allocations, as well as other re...
socialscienceprediction.org

Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna, Cyrus Samii

nber.org
NBER @nber.org · Apr 29
The Thresholding Multiple Outcomes method addresses spatial correlation in regressions by using information from additional outcomes to identify correlated locations, from Stefano DellaVigna, Guido Imbens, Woojin Kim, and @dritzwoller.bsky.social https://www.nber.org/papers/w33716

Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna

Reposted by Stefano DellaVigna

sdellavi.bsky.social
Stefano DellaVigna @sdellavi.bsky.social · Mar 21
Lise is a terrific economist with so many ground breaking contributions... as well as one of the most caring and genuine persons you will find. Very well deserved!