Philipp Heimberger

@heimbergecon.bsky.social

2.5K followers 94 following 600 posts

Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw); macroeconomics, economic policy, public finance, political economy, meta-science.

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Economics 86%

Political science 11%

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Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 14h

Source: aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Free-access version: kielinstitut.de/fileadmin/Da...

The Price of War

(Forthcoming Article) - We assemble a new data set spanning 150 years and 60 countries to study the economic toll of war. A war of average intensity is associated with an output drop of close to 10 pe...

aeaweb.org

Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 14h

This new AER paper finds large negative economic effects of wars: "A war of average intensity is associated with an output drop of close to 10% in the war-site economy, while consumer prices rise by approximately 20%." Negative spillovers through trade and common borders.

Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 1d

Source: economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/dow...

economy-finance.ec.europa.eu

Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 1d

According to the European Commission, France and Austria will have among the most restrictive fiscal stances in 2026 (largest contraction in Romania). In countries like Italy and Poland, EU funds (RRF) will still offset national consolidation efforts, but only until 2027.

Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 4d

Source: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Lower taxes at all costs? Evidence from a survey experiment in four European countries

It is commonly argued that citizens favour lower taxes, thereby exerting pressure for tax reductions that undermine the ability of governments to raise revenues. We argue that the ostensibly strong...

www.tandfonline.com

Reposted by Rebecca Sear

Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 4d

This paper shows: support for lower taxes declines significantly when this comes into conflict with other fiscal policy objectives, e.g. social spending. Regressive reforms receive less support than progressive reforms. Left-leaning, high-income voters resist tax reductions more.

Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 4d

Paper in "Economic Journal": academic.oup.com/ej/advance-a...

Free-access version: econstor.eu/bitstream/10...

P-hacking and Significance Stars

Abstract. In mid-2016, all journals of the American Economic Association stopped including significance stars in their regression tables. This policy aimed

academic.oup.com

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 4d

This paper examines a journal policy removing significance stars from regression tables and finds no significant effect on p-hacking, the preference for statistically significant results. It seems cosmetic changes don't eliminate the underlying incentive to chase significance.

Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 5d

Source: journals.plos.org/plosone/arti...

The political economy of academic publishing: On the commodification of a public good

This paper provides an institutional and empirical analysis of the highly concentrated market of academic publishing, characterized by over proportionally high profit margins for publishing companies....

journals.plos.org

Reposted by Michelle Everson

Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 5d

Academic publishing is a lucrative business for a very small number of private academic publishers. For 🇦🇹, this paper estimates: public spending benefits publishing companies with a large amount - 25% of the annual basic funding universities receive from the Ministry of education

Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 6d

Source: economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/dow...

economy-finance.ec.europa.eu

Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 6d

National fiscal policy in EU member countries has turned contractionary. Defence spending is rising, with larger cuts elsewhere. Nationally funded investment will fall in 2025–27, and EU recovery funds will cease to cushion the decline after 2027.

Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 6d

Source: economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/dow...

economy-finance.ec.europa.eu

Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 6d

Journal link: aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Free-access version: www.minneapolisfed.org/research/ins...

Changing Business Cycles: The Role of Women's Employment

(October 2025) - Women's labor force participation in the United States rose rapidly until the mid-1990s when it flattened out. I examine the impact of this change in trend on aggregate business cycle...

aeaweb.org

Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 7d

Source: arxiv.org/pdf/2511.04820

Reposted by Robbert Sanderman, Mikael Ehn, Seema Jayachandran , and 12 more Robbert Sanderman, Mikael Ehn, Seema Jayachandran, Alexander Wuttke, Marno Verbeek, Cathy N. Davidson, Jennifer Clark, Ingo Rohlfing, Paolo Crosetto, Bessma Momani, David J. Berri, Dolly Jørgensen, Larry W. Hunter, Kathleen Kennedy, Giulio Mattioli

Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 7d

"academic publishing is dominated by profit-oriented, multinational companies for whom scientific knowledge is a commodity to be sold back to the academic community who created it... The dominant four collectively generated... $12 billion in profits between 2019 and 2024."

Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 8d

Source: crei.cat/wp-content/u...

crei.cat

Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 8d

This paper shows it's important to account for fiscal policy’s impact on productivity: long periods of large primary surpluses can depress investment and growth, making public debt stabilisation harder. Pro-growth fiscal reforms may boost productivity, make debt easier to sustain

Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 11d

Source: www.ft.com/content/239e...

Can anything halt the decline of German industry?

Europe’s manufacturing champion is in free fall. Economists are suggesting radical steps to save what is left

www.ft.com

Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 11d

Germany used to run large trade surpluses in capital goods with China (exports > imports). Since the start of 2025, Germany has been running a trade deficit with China.

Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 12d

Link to the paper: empn.eu/publication/...

Making Fiscal Space Policy-responsive – European Macro Policy Network

empn.eu

Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 12d

Our simulations based on five national medium-term fiscal-structural plans (Austria, Finland, France, Germany and Italy) show that growth-enhancing measures increase potential output and thus expand fiscal space, while growth-reducing measures do the opposite.

Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 12d

In this paper, we propose to make potential output estimates in EU fiscal rules policy-responsive in assessing fiscal space via debt sustainability analysis. Allow public investment, R&D expenditure, and labour-supply reforms to affect potential output and fiscal space!

Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 12d

Source: jesse-silbert.github.io/website/silb...

jesse-silbert.github.io

Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 12d

Large language models like ChatGPT make writing much cheaper and easier. This disrupts markets where writing used to signal a person’s ability, e.g. job applications. Customization of applications no longer indicates real ability; employers struggle to find the best workers

Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 13d

Link to the paper in "Review of Economics and Statistics": direct.mit.edu/rest/article...

Free-access version: conference.iza.org/Gender_2022/...

In Sickness and in Health: Job Displacement and Health Spillovers in Couples

Abstract. Using administrative labor market data matched to mortality statistics and patient records, we document that negative labor market shocks produce sizable health spillovers in couples. For ev...

direct.mit.edu

Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 13d

New paper on the fatal consequences of job loss using 🇫🇮 administrative data: "For every 100,000 displaced men, there are 1,100 additional deaths. 60% accrue to the displaced worker, 40% are due to excess spousal mortality.. no such dire consequences are observed after a woman’s job loss"