Philipp Heimberger
@heimbergecon.bsky.social
2.4K followers 88 following 510 posts

Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw); macroeconomics, economic policy, public finance, political economy, meta-science.

Economics 86%
Political science 11%
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wiiw.ac.at
wiiw @wiiw.ac.at · 22h
Große Story in @diepressecom.bsky.social über unsere neue Studie von @heimbergecon.bsky.social & Cara Dabrowski: 🇦🇹 & die 🇪🇺 brauchen mehr öffentliche Investitionen, um ihre geopolitischen Ziele zu erreichen und die lahmende Wirtschaft zu revitalisieren. Das geht auch, ohne das Budget zu belasten.

Reposted by Philipp Heimberger

wiiw.ac.at
The 🇪🇺 needs public investment to achieve its geopolitical goals & revive its economy. Our new study by @heimbergecon.bsky.social & Cara Dabrowski finds that well-targeted public investment brings strong economic returns and can be financed through borrowing without destabilising budgets. 1/9

heimbergecon.bsky.social
With the US now seemingly unwilling to buy European export goods as it did in the past, and with China’s import growth slowing, Europe must refocus on domestic growth drivers. Public investment may play a crucial role in this.

Link to paper: wiiw.ac.at/achieving-ge...
heimbergecon.bsky.social
In a new paper, we provide fresh evidence on the macroeconomic effects of public investment in 27 EU member states. We find that public investment has favorable effects on output and unemployment; doesn't crowd out private investment; and doesn't jeopardise debt sustainability.

heimbergecon.bsky.social
I fear that the decline of reading will have disastrous societal consequences.

heimbergecon.bsky.social
Welcome to the age of AI. "Deloitte will partially refund payment for an Australian government report that contained multiple errors after admitting it was partly produced by artificial intelligence."

heimbergecon.bsky.social
China has replaced the EU as Russia’s main trading partner.

heimbergecon.bsky.social
This is an interesting set of papers on "The Economics of Transformative AI" providing insights into recent mainstream economics thinking on AI and its repercussions.

heimbergecon.bsky.social
The number of countries with wealth taxes has fallen sharply since 1990. Revenues from these taxes tend to raise comparatively small amounts.

heimbergecon.bsky.social
This paper shows that children are significantly less likely to enter the academic track if they come from a low socio-economic status family. A low-intensity mentoring program can improve long-run education outcomes of disadvantaged children and reduce inequality of opportunity.

heimbergecon.bsky.social
EU Commission has approved🇩🇪 fiscal plan for the next years, making it consistent with 🇪🇺 fiscal rules. The plan departs from baseline potential growth assumptions, which sets a precedent for others. Additional military spending will be exempted under the national escape clause.

heimbergecon.bsky.social
Students tend to greatly overestimate the job prospects of their preferred occupations. When given accurate information about labor market outcomes, they shift toward fields of study with stronger employment opportunities and higher wages.

heimbergecon.bsky.social
France is not Greece. In 🇫🇷, debt of corporates and households has been falling while government debt rises. In contrast, the🇬🇷private sector strongly expanded its debt during the 2000s, while government debt was also increasing in the run-up to the crisis.

chart @danielkral.bsky.social
heimbergecon.bsky.social
France is not Greece. In the run-up to the Greek debt crisis, interest payments absorbed more than 10% of 🇬🇷 tax revenue and peaked at nearly 20% in the early 2010s. In 🇫🇷, by contrast, the share is currently below 5%.

heimbergecon.bsky.social
France is not Greece. 🇫🇷 is running a broadly balanced current account. Greece ran large current account deficits (imports > exports) in the run-up to the Greek crisis, then suffered a sudden stop of capital inflows during the financial crisis. Btw 🇬🇷is back to large CA deficits.

Reposted by Alistair Munro

heimbergecon.bsky.social
This paper shows that empirical economics research often lacks credibility because of low statistical power and publication bias. About 80% of reported effects are overstated, typically by a factor of two, and sometimes by four or more.
heimbergecon.bsky.social
Chancellor Merz says 🇩🇪 has been living beyond its means. That doesn’t add up. For 20 years 🇩🇪has run huge current account surpluses - exporting far more than it imports. In other words, it produces much more than it consumes. If anything, Germany has been living below its means.

Reposted by Philipp Heimberger

wiiw.ac.at
wiiw @wiiw.ac.at · Sep 10
„Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Griechenland ist sehr erfreulich. Ich halte es aber für überzeichnet, von einem Wirtschaftswunder zu sprechen", so @heimbergecon.bsky.social im @kurier.at.web.brid.gy. Inflationsbereinigt liegt d. Wirtschaftsleistung in 🇬🇷 noch immer um 11% unter dem Wert von 2007.

heimbergecon.bsky.social
Statistically insignificant results are at least as interesting as significant ones (but often end up in the file drawer because deemed less publishable). Results are interesting if they change what we believe. No reason that only non-zero findings should change our beliefs.

heimbergecon.bsky.social
The lowest average annual salaries in the EU are recorded in Bulgaria, Hungary and Greece.