Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
@aleferna.bsky.social
Social scientist - Research political behaviour, public opinion, (mis)perceptions and philosophy of social sciences.
Pinned
Ever struggle to explain why your research is relevant? Sometimes the data just does it for you! 👇
Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅
Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
‼️ Important new paper on the consequences of low turnout for representation by @mascakir.bsky.social, see Semih's 🧵 for a summary of his findings 👇
Do policy preferences of voters and non-voters differ in European democracies?
My new article in @ejprjournal.bsky.social finds: Yes, sometimes, but this is not the norm.
Let's break it down. 🧵 1/10
My new article in @ejprjournal.bsky.social finds: Yes, sometimes, but this is not the norm.
Let's break it down. 🧵 1/10
November 19, 2025 at 1:49 PM
‼️ Important new paper on the consequences of low turnout for representation by @mascakir.bsky.social, see Semih's 🧵 for a summary of his findings 👇
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
AI presents a fundamental threat to our ability to use polls to assess public opinion. Bad actors who are able to infiltrate panels can flip close election polls for less than the cost of a Starbucks coffee. Models will also infer and confirm hypotheses in experiments. Current quality checks fail
November 18, 2025 at 9:23 PM
AI presents a fundamental threat to our ability to use polls to assess public opinion. Bad actors who are able to infiltrate panels can flip close election polls for less than the cost of a Starbucks coffee. Models will also infer and confirm hypotheses in experiments. Current quality checks fail
Solid work on (absent) attitudinal age gaps in the UK 👇
🚨 New paper with Maria Grasso on generational shifts in political values. Despite talk of rising age polarisation, we show that gaps in attitudes are stable or even narrowing. Economic attitudes move in cycles, while social values have become more liberal – mainly due to generational replacement.
Political Socialisation in the UK: Describing Generational Changes of Values - International Journal of Politics, Culture, and Society
A growing bulk of research examines intergenerational shifts in attitudes and the extent to which they are attributable to new cohorts of voters being socialised under different socioeconomic and cult...
link.springer.com
November 13, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Solid work on (absent) attitudinal age gaps in the UK 👇
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇
November 11, 2025 at 9:00 AM
🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
🗳️ Dutch voters will elect a new parliament for the third time in just five years on October 29. Here's everything you need to know about the upcoming elections. 🇳🇱 My colleague Esmee and I wrote a short primer for @theconversation.com.
doi.org/10.64628/AB....
doi.org/10.64628/AB....
The Netherlands is trying to draw a line under a year of chaos with fresh elections – will it work?
Prime Minister Dick Schoof called fresh elections following the first collapse of his government, which would go on to fall a second time within a few months.
doi.org
October 21, 2025 at 8:09 PM
🗳️ Dutch voters will elect a new parliament for the third time in just five years on October 29. Here's everything you need to know about the upcoming elections. 🇳🇱 My colleague Esmee and I wrote a short primer for @theconversation.com.
doi.org/10.64628/AB....
doi.org/10.64628/AB....
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
Great to speak to @greenmirandahere.bsky.social for today's FT Inside Politics about the latest finding from our politics of (im)patience project, w/ @karlpike.bsky.social and @philipjcowley.bsky.social.
www.ft.com/content/e984...
www.ft.com/content/e984...
Labour sheds support from impatient Britons
Research shows party losing voters who want results now, with women more likely to prioritise short-term gains
www.ft.com
October 20, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Great to speak to @greenmirandahere.bsky.social for today's FT Inside Politics about the latest finding from our politics of (im)patience project, w/ @karlpike.bsky.social and @philipjcowley.bsky.social.
www.ft.com/content/e984...
www.ft.com/content/e984...
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
Really important study by @sannabergvall.bsky.social et al.!
Focusing on Sweden, this study finds that PhD students begin their programs with similar psychiatric medication use as other master’s graduates, but usage rises sharply to about 40 percent higher by the fifth year before declining after graduation.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com
October 20, 2025 at 8:09 AM
Really important study by @sannabergvall.bsky.social et al.!
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
Following the success of our spring seminar series earlier this year, we @psapolpsychology.bsky.social are running an autumn/winter series, with four online presentations by great scholars.
Please do register and come along to hear about some really fascinating research!
Please do register and come along to hear about some really fascinating research!
This time in two weeks, we will launch our autumn/winter seminar series. We have an exciting line-up of four online talks covering a range of topics in political psychology.
All presentations are on Thursdays at 12:00 UK.
Sign up to attend here!: www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g...
All presentations are on Thursdays at 12:00 UK.
Sign up to attend here!: www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g...
Political Psychology | The Political Studies Association (PSA)
Political Psychology is a multi-disciplinary group established to provide a forum for collaboration, discussion and support for political psychology scholars and practitioners as well as to facilitate...
www.psa.ac.uk
October 2, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Following the success of our spring seminar series earlier this year, we @psapolpsychology.bsky.social are running an autumn/winter series, with four online presentations by great scholars.
Please do register and come along to hear about some really fascinating research!
Please do register and come along to hear about some really fascinating research!
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
Happy to publish today in the @ejprjournal.bsky.social
Pop culture (think Netflix's Sex Education) make us think that emerging cohorts are happy to socially incorporate partners with sexually modern backgrounds and experiences 🏳️🌈
But is this really the case?
doi.org/10.1017/S147...
Pop culture (think Netflix's Sex Education) make us think that emerging cohorts are happy to socially incorporate partners with sexually modern backgrounds and experiences 🏳️🌈
But is this really the case?
doi.org/10.1017/S147...
Allies on the streets but illiberal in the sheets? Gender and the public vs. private inclusion of sexual minorities | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
Allies on the streets but illiberal in the sheets? Gender and the public vs. private inclusion of sexual minorities
doi.org
October 1, 2025 at 9:05 AM
Happy to publish today in the @ejprjournal.bsky.social
Pop culture (think Netflix's Sex Education) make us think that emerging cohorts are happy to socially incorporate partners with sexually modern backgrounds and experiences 🏳️🌈
But is this really the case?
doi.org/10.1017/S147...
Pop culture (think Netflix's Sex Education) make us think that emerging cohorts are happy to socially incorporate partners with sexually modern backgrounds and experiences 🏳️🌈
But is this really the case?
doi.org/10.1017/S147...
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
🤔 Do surveys exaggerate democratic support due to social desirability bias (SDB)?
➡️ Using survey-mode variation & list experiments in 24 countries, @pcmagalhaes.bsky.social & @aarslew.bsky.social find no evidence that SDB inflates democratic attitudes www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
➡️ Using survey-mode variation & list experiments in 24 countries, @pcmagalhaes.bsky.social & @aarslew.bsky.social find no evidence that SDB inflates democratic attitudes www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
September 19, 2025 at 6:58 AM
🤔 Do surveys exaggerate democratic support due to social desirability bias (SDB)?
➡️ Using survey-mode variation & list experiments in 24 countries, @pcmagalhaes.bsky.social & @aarslew.bsky.social find no evidence that SDB inflates democratic attitudes www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
➡️ Using survey-mode variation & list experiments in 24 countries, @pcmagalhaes.bsky.social & @aarslew.bsky.social find no evidence that SDB inflates democratic attitudes www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵
September 16, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵
This is extremely good!
💥Online first:
"The sound of party competition: how applause reflects unity, disagreement, and the electoral cycle in parliaments"
by @ankuepfer.bsky.social @jocmuel.bsky.social & @pluggedchris.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
"The sound of party competition: how applause reflects unity, disagreement, and the electoral cycle in parliaments"
by @ankuepfer.bsky.social @jocmuel.bsky.social & @pluggedchris.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
September 15, 2025 at 9:57 AM
This is extremely good!
This polling discrepancy is a huge concern when you consider how polls influence political behaviour. Last year, @mbarnfield.bsky.social and I published a paper about the dangers of this exact situation - a 'mixed-poll environment' with conflicting estimates academic.oup.com/ijpor/articl...
September 11, 2025 at 12:28 PM
This polling discrepancy is a huge concern when you consider how polls influence political behaviour. Last year, @mbarnfield.bsky.social and I published a paper about the dangers of this exact situation - a 'mixed-poll environment' with conflicting estimates academic.oup.com/ijpor/articl...
Ever struggle to explain why your research is relevant? Sometimes the data just does it for you! 👇
Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅
Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅
September 11, 2025 at 11:40 AM
Ever struggle to explain why your research is relevant? Sometimes the data just does it for you! 👇
Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅
Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅
What a great way to wrap up #EPOP2025!
Full circle moment ⭕:
@psaepop.bsky.social was the first ever conference I presented at, and now I'm thrilled to wrap up my PhD conference cycle at #EPOP2025 in Exeter. Enthusiatic to present joint work with @aleferna.bsky.social and to be part of this promising panel. Curious to hear your thoughts!
@psaepop.bsky.social was the first ever conference I presented at, and now I'm thrilled to wrap up my PhD conference cycle at #EPOP2025 in Exeter. Enthusiatic to present joint work with @aleferna.bsky.social and to be part of this promising panel. Curious to hear your thoughts!
September 6, 2025 at 9:11 AM
What a great way to wrap up #EPOP2025!
Back in Exeter for the first time since my first PhD visiting stay! I'm thrilled to be presenting joint research on election polling with @klaramueller.bsky.social at the @psaepop.bsky.social Conference tomorrow. So looking forward to this panel full of great scholars
September 4, 2025 at 11:51 AM
Back in Exeter for the first time since my first PhD visiting stay! I'm thrilled to be presenting joint research on election polling with @klaramueller.bsky.social at the @psaepop.bsky.social Conference tomorrow. So looking forward to this panel full of great scholars
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
This is a prime case study of how moving your issue agenda as a center right party (Cons) to the right extremes will eventually cost yourself everything.
The Cons are projected at 24!!! seats right now.
Reform at 395!
The Cons are projected at 24!!! seats right now.
Reform at 395!
➡️ Reform lead by 15%, their largest ever lead in an opinion poll.
Would give them a majority of ~140 seats.
Would give them a majority of ~140 seats.
August 21, 2025 at 12:36 PM
This is a prime case study of how moving your issue agenda as a center right party (Cons) to the right extremes will eventually cost yourself everything.
The Cons are projected at 24!!! seats right now.
Reform at 395!
The Cons are projected at 24!!! seats right now.
Reform at 395!
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
I have a new article out at @polstudies.bsky.social. In "Electoral Hope", I make the case that supposedly irrational "wishful thinking" is actually a crucial part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies.
OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...
OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...
August 6, 2025 at 1:08 PM
I have a new article out at @polstudies.bsky.social. In "Electoral Hope", I make the case that supposedly irrational "wishful thinking" is actually a crucial part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies.
OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...
OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
📝Why has a Bukele-style far-right party emerged in Spain—even though VOX already exists?
In our new paper, @javierpadilla.bsky.social, @canalejoalvaro.bsky.social and I explain the unexpected rise of SALF ("Let the Party Be Over") in the 2024 EP elections:
journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....
1/3
In our new paper, @javierpadilla.bsky.social, @canalejoalvaro.bsky.social and I explain the unexpected rise of SALF ("Let the Party Be Over") in the 2024 EP elections:
journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....
1/3
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
journals.sagepub.com
August 4, 2025 at 11:01 AM
📝Why has a Bukele-style far-right party emerged in Spain—even though VOX already exists?
In our new paper, @javierpadilla.bsky.social, @canalejoalvaro.bsky.social and I explain the unexpected rise of SALF ("Let the Party Be Over") in the 2024 EP elections:
journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....
1/3
In our new paper, @javierpadilla.bsky.social, @canalejoalvaro.bsky.social and I explain the unexpected rise of SALF ("Let the Party Be Over") in the 2024 EP elections:
journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....
1/3
Just discovered that ChatGPT writes as I did during my masters (maybe even early PhD): trying to use grandiloquent words to compensate for a lack of depth in my writing(s)
August 1, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Just discovered that ChatGPT writes as I did during my masters (maybe even early PhD): trying to use grandiloquent words to compensate for a lack of depth in my writing(s)
I never re-read the book 'All souls', by Javier Marías, but my memory of it (and the reason why I think I liked it) is because it mocked/despised a mindless fascination with some characters and traditions orbiting Oxford.
August 1, 2025 at 10:03 AM
I never re-read the book 'All souls', by Javier Marías, but my memory of it (and the reason why I think I liked it) is because it mocked/despised a mindless fascination with some characters and traditions orbiting Oxford.
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
🧪How did COVID-19 affect citizens’ democratic preferences?
➡️ @cescamat.bsky.social A.Arenas A.Falcó & @jordimunoz.bsky.social find a lasting rise in technocratic preferences and a temporary bump in the willingness to sacrifice civil rights and freedoms www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
➡️ @cescamat.bsky.social A.Arenas A.Falcó & @jordimunoz.bsky.social find a lasting rise in technocratic preferences and a temporary bump in the willingness to sacrifice civil rights and freedoms www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
July 23, 2025 at 11:01 AM
🧪How did COVID-19 affect citizens’ democratic preferences?
➡️ @cescamat.bsky.social A.Arenas A.Falcó & @jordimunoz.bsky.social find a lasting rise in technocratic preferences and a temporary bump in the willingness to sacrifice civil rights and freedoms www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
➡️ @cescamat.bsky.social A.Arenas A.Falcó & @jordimunoz.bsky.social find a lasting rise in technocratic preferences and a temporary bump in the willingness to sacrifice civil rights and freedoms www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
📣 NEW PAPER ALERT! 🚨
"School subject choices in adolescence affect political party support"
Just published in @wepsocial.bsky.social with @nspmartin.bsky.social and @rolandkappe.bsky.social.
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
🧵👇
"School subject choices in adolescence affect political party support"
Just published in @wepsocial.bsky.social with @nspmartin.bsky.social and @rolandkappe.bsky.social.
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
🧵👇
July 14, 2025 at 1:13 PM
📣 NEW PAPER ALERT! 🚨
"School subject choices in adolescence affect political party support"
Just published in @wepsocial.bsky.social with @nspmartin.bsky.social and @rolandkappe.bsky.social.
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
🧵👇
"School subject choices in adolescence affect political party support"
Just published in @wepsocial.bsky.social with @nspmartin.bsky.social and @rolandkappe.bsky.social.
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
🧵👇
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
Can banning political ideologies protect democracy? 🛡️🆚🗣️
Our (w. @valentimvicente.bsky.social) paper finds: punishing individuals might backfire. We study a West German policy banning "extreme left" individuals from working for the state.
#Democracy #PoliticalScience
🧵
url: osf.io/usqdb_v2
Our (w. @valentimvicente.bsky.social) paper finds: punishing individuals might backfire. We study a West German policy banning "extreme left" individuals from working for the state.
#Democracy #PoliticalScience
🧵
url: osf.io/usqdb_v2
July 10, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Can banning political ideologies protect democracy? 🛡️🆚🗣️
Our (w. @valentimvicente.bsky.social) paper finds: punishing individuals might backfire. We study a West German policy banning "extreme left" individuals from working for the state.
#Democracy #PoliticalScience
🧵
url: osf.io/usqdb_v2
Our (w. @valentimvicente.bsky.social) paper finds: punishing individuals might backfire. We study a West German policy banning "extreme left" individuals from working for the state.
#Democracy #PoliticalScience
🧵
url: osf.io/usqdb_v2
Very cool paper! - Pretty sure most people will adopt this check right away. And even if I'm wrong, you know Reviewer 2 will ask for it anyway 😉
We hope that our new robustness checks will be widely adopted, as we believe that this can increase the validity of published UESD research considerably.
July 1, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Very cool paper! - Pretty sure most people will adopt this check right away. And even if I'm wrong, you know Reviewer 2 will ask for it anyway 😉