Joe Phillips
@polpsychjoe.bsky.social
Lecturer in Politics, Cardiff University. Political Psychology. Polarization. Political Communication.
Pinned
Joe Phillips
@polpsychjoe.bsky.social
· Nov 17
Hello new followers! For those I don't know yet, let me introduce myself:
- I'm an American working at Cardiff University
- My work focuses on animosity between political groups, misinformation, and support for democratic norms.
- I tend to be much more of a doomer than my empirical results warrant
- I'm an American working at Cardiff University
- My work focuses on animosity between political groups, misinformation, and support for democratic norms.
- I tend to be much more of a doomer than my empirical results warrant
Reposted by Joe Phillips
Its really strange. And a very weird reading of public opinion too. There are multiple reasons to win elections. Being clear about what you stand for, expressing values, delivery, unity in parliament, not just 'following poll X' !!
It's part of the electionification of everything, which is why we as a country are failing to have a proper conversation about our actual problems. It's bad for the left *and* the right.
It's such a bizarre framing. Labour MPs think taking 450k kids out of poverty is putting the country first! That's why they wanted it to happen! It's not because they personally benefit.
November 28, 2025 at 9:41 AM
Its really strange. And a very weird reading of public opinion too. There are multiple reasons to win elections. Being clear about what you stand for, expressing values, delivery, unity in parliament, not just 'following poll X' !!
Reposted by Joe Phillips
Welcome Shabana Mahmood to your next four years of headlines!!!
Foreign doctors trained by the NHS face deportation under visa rules
Foreign doctors trained by the NHS face deportation under visa rules
www.thetimes.com
November 28, 2025 at 9:32 AM
Welcome Shabana Mahmood to your next four years of headlines!!!
Reposted by Joe Phillips
Ask yourself why there wasn’t this level of wall to wall coverage for this shooting wgme.com/news/local/i...
ICE agent who shot woman in Chicago drove Border Patrol vehicle back to Maine
An unnamed ICE agent, who shot and injured a woman in Chicago, is now back in Maine after driving the Border Patrol vehicle he was in 1,100 miles.
wgme.com
November 28, 2025 at 5:49 AM
Ask yourself why there wasn’t this level of wall to wall coverage for this shooting wgme.com/news/local/i...
Reposted by Joe Phillips
UK politics followers, these graphs are in a paper by @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and co (inc. me).
There's so much useful info in them.
The long-term context for the politics of our time, how the 'Brexit elections' differed, though note the Y axes may need to be bigger for the next election!!
There's so much useful info in them.
The long-term context for the politics of our time, how the 'Brexit elections' differed, though note the Y axes may need to be bigger for the next election!!
November 28, 2025 at 9:29 AM
UK politics followers, these graphs are in a paper by @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and co (inc. me).
There's so much useful info in them.
The long-term context for the politics of our time, how the 'Brexit elections' differed, though note the Y axes may need to be bigger for the next election!!
There's so much useful info in them.
The long-term context for the politics of our time, how the 'Brexit elections' differed, though note the Y axes may need to be bigger for the next election!!
Reposted by Joe Phillips
My latest article is now up on ASR. In it, we argue that the U.S. LGBTQ movement is in the midst of a widespread, conflictual process of generational turnover—with important implications for the future of the movement.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
November 27, 2025 at 11:15 PM
My latest article is now up on ASR. In it, we argue that the U.S. LGBTQ movement is in the midst of a widespread, conflictual process of generational turnover—with important implications for the future of the movement.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Five concerts you’ve seen
Dream Theater
Alice in Chains
The Mars Volta
Tool
Social Distortion
Dream Theater
Alice in Chains
The Mars Volta
Tool
Social Distortion
Five concerts you’ve seen
Midnight Oil
Steely Dan
New Order
Red Hot Chili Peppers
Elaine Stritch
Midnight Oil
Steely Dan
New Order
Red Hot Chili Peppers
Elaine Stritch
Five concerts you’ve seen
Bob Mould
The Replacements
The Gear Daddies
Vial
Arcwelder
Bob Mould
The Replacements
The Gear Daddies
Vial
Arcwelder
November 28, 2025 at 1:38 AM
Five concerts you’ve seen
Dream Theater
Alice in Chains
The Mars Volta
Tool
Social Distortion
Dream Theater
Alice in Chains
The Mars Volta
Tool
Social Distortion
Reposted by Joe Phillips
"We followed everything we were supposed to do"
Legitimate green card applicants with US spouses are being
arrested by armed, masked men at scheduled immigration interviews, taken away from their children, sent to prison
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/u...
Legitimate green card applicants with US spouses are being
arrested by armed, masked men at scheduled immigration interviews, taken away from their children, sent to prison
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/u...
Green Card Interviews End in Handcuffs for Spouses of U.S. Citizens
www.nytimes.com
November 27, 2025 at 11:55 AM
"We followed everything we were supposed to do"
Legitimate green card applicants with US spouses are being
arrested by armed, masked men at scheduled immigration interviews, taken away from their children, sent to prison
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/u...
Legitimate green card applicants with US spouses are being
arrested by armed, masked men at scheduled immigration interviews, taken away from their children, sent to prison
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/u...
Reposted by Joe Phillips
I say this mostly because Reform and certain journalists friendly to them seem determined to start a “white flight” narrative since net migration has dropped so dramatically.
It’s not true. It’s not even close to true.
It’s not true. It’s not even close to true.
November 27, 2025 at 4:49 PM
I say this mostly because Reform and certain journalists friendly to them seem determined to start a “white flight” narrative since net migration has dropped so dramatically.
It’s not true. It’s not even close to true.
It’s not true. It’s not even close to true.
Reposted by Joe Phillips
The number of British citizens emigrating hasn’t increased, btw. Outward migration is up, but the increase is mostly non-EU migrants leaving the UK.
The methodology counting emigration of British citizens changed in 2021, which increased the number, and it’s been pretty much flat ever since…
The methodology counting emigration of British citizens changed in 2021, which increased the number, and it’s been pretty much flat ever since…
November 27, 2025 at 4:48 PM
The number of British citizens emigrating hasn’t increased, btw. Outward migration is up, but the increase is mostly non-EU migrants leaving the UK.
The methodology counting emigration of British citizens changed in 2021, which increased the number, and it’s been pretty much flat ever since…
The methodology counting emigration of British citizens changed in 2021, which increased the number, and it’s been pretty much flat ever since…
Reposted by Joe Phillips
Thankful for justice movements working to make America belatedly live up to its promises for hundreds of years.
November 27, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Thankful for justice movements working to make America belatedly live up to its promises for hundreds of years.
Reposted by Joe Phillips
Here's one office Dems could flip on Tuesday.
(No, it's not in TN!)
The Republican mayor of Roswell, a Georgia city of 90K, finished just one percentage point ahead of his Dem challenger on November 4. The runoff is in a few days.
One of my Dec elections to watch: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the...
(No, it's not in TN!)
The Republican mayor of Roswell, a Georgia city of 90K, finished just one percentage point ahead of his Dem challenger on November 4. The runoff is in a few days.
One of my Dec elections to watch: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the...
November 27, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Here's one office Dems could flip on Tuesday.
(No, it's not in TN!)
The Republican mayor of Roswell, a Georgia city of 90K, finished just one percentage point ahead of his Dem challenger on November 4. The runoff is in a few days.
One of my Dec elections to watch: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the...
(No, it's not in TN!)
The Republican mayor of Roswell, a Georgia city of 90K, finished just one percentage point ahead of his Dem challenger on November 4. The runoff is in a few days.
One of my Dec elections to watch: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the...
Reposted by Joe Phillips
The government figuring this out slowly over the coming two years is going to be quite something to behold.
I think the government meant to cut net migration but have accidentally overshot the target by a lot. They haven’t realised this yet.
November 27, 2025 at 4:14 PM
The government figuring this out slowly over the coming two years is going to be quite something to behold.
Reposted by Joe Phillips
I'm not sure how much it is appreciated that there will be significant emigration coming. Those here on graduate visas coming to an end, the toughening up of skilled worker rules re. salaries/sponsorable roles and the 'earned settlement' changes to come. Lots of people are going to leave.
November 27, 2025 at 11:08 AM
I'm not sure how much it is appreciated that there will be significant emigration coming. Those here on graduate visas coming to an end, the toughening up of skilled worker rules re. salaries/sponsorable roles and the 'earned settlement' changes to come. Lots of people are going to leave.
Reposted by Joe Phillips
Political Science still has DDRIG grants, funded by NSF but administered directly by APSA.
They're trying to break the pipeline for future social science research.
"There are no current DDRIG grants available for any discipline in the Directorate for Social Behavioral and Economic Sciences, as it appears that the NSF has archived—which means cancelled—the DDRIG grants in every SBE field"
"There are no current DDRIG grants available for any discipline in the Directorate for Social Behavioral and Economic Sciences, as it appears that the NSF has archived—which means cancelled—the DDRIG grants in every SBE field"
November 27, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Political Science still has DDRIG grants, funded by NSF but administered directly by APSA.
Reposted by Joe Phillips
As political scandals go, a grubby backroom deal to, errrr, lift 450,000 children out of poverty is at least a novel one.
Headline on The World at One just now:
"Sir Keir Starmer has denied putting the Labour Party before the country by ending the two-child benefit cap".
Can we please go back to reporting the actual news, not someone's partisan take on it?
"Sir Keir Starmer has denied putting the Labour Party before the country by ending the two-child benefit cap".
Can we please go back to reporting the actual news, not someone's partisan take on it?
November 27, 2025 at 1:30 PM
As political scandals go, a grubby backroom deal to, errrr, lift 450,000 children out of poverty is at least a novel one.
Reposted by Joe Phillips
#OpenAcess from @ejprjournal.bsky.social -
Redistribution between people and places: Conflict or consensus among rural and working-class voters? - https://cup.org/48nRm6F
- Marta R. Eidheim
#FirstView
Redistribution between people and places: Conflict or consensus among rural and working-class voters? - https://cup.org/48nRm6F
- Marta R. Eidheim
#FirstView
November 26, 2025 at 10:20 AM
#OpenAcess from @ejprjournal.bsky.social -
Redistribution between people and places: Conflict or consensus among rural and working-class voters? - https://cup.org/48nRm6F
- Marta R. Eidheim
#FirstView
Redistribution between people and places: Conflict or consensus among rural and working-class voters? - https://cup.org/48nRm6F
- Marta R. Eidheim
#FirstView
Reposted by Joe Phillips
Quick post-budget reminder that you can offset your losses to the Treasury by claiming a discount on everyone's favourite stocking filler - the British General Election of 2024 - which will be out next week. Details on the discount code in the thread below!
Looking forward to a much briefed bumper hamper of politics? No, not the Budget, The British General Election of 2024! We had a wonderful all star launch event in London last night, with representatives of all five Britain-wide parties, and now I have a special launch gift for you...read on! 1/?
November 27, 2025 at 1:22 PM
Quick post-budget reminder that you can offset your losses to the Treasury by claiming a discount on everyone's favourite stocking filler - the British General Election of 2024 - which will be out next week. Details on the discount code in the thread below!
Reposted by Joe Phillips
All the Right Wing apologists are cheering the fall in UK immigration announced today while missing what could be a huge problem - 99% of emigrants are under the age of 35. That’s a big brain drain.
November 27, 2025 at 12:49 PM
All the Right Wing apologists are cheering the fall in UK immigration announced today while missing what could be a huge problem - 99% of emigrants are under the age of 35. That’s a big brain drain.
Reposted by Joe Phillips
NEW -
Decisive or Distracted: The Effects of US Constraint on Security Networks - https://cup.org/3LVMVIS
- @haeunchoi.bsky.social, Scott de Marchi, Max Gallop & Shahryar Minhas
#OpenAccess
Decisive or Distracted: The Effects of US Constraint on Security Networks - https://cup.org/3LVMVIS
- @haeunchoi.bsky.social, Scott de Marchi, Max Gallop & Shahryar Minhas
#OpenAccess
November 27, 2025 at 12:50 PM
NEW -
Decisive or Distracted: The Effects of US Constraint on Security Networks - https://cup.org/3LVMVIS
- @haeunchoi.bsky.social, Scott de Marchi, Max Gallop & Shahryar Minhas
#OpenAccess
Decisive or Distracted: The Effects of US Constraint on Security Networks - https://cup.org/3LVMVIS
- @haeunchoi.bsky.social, Scott de Marchi, Max Gallop & Shahryar Minhas
#OpenAccess
Reposted by Joe Phillips
Our conversation is stuck on the far-right -named “Boris wave” while net immigration has actually DROPPED BY EIGHTY PERCENT (80%) since then!!
⬇️work visas DOWN
⬇️student numbers DOWN
⬆️emigration UP
🙄& asylum numbers totally steady cos cruelty won’t stop those with no choice!
⬇️work visas DOWN
⬇️student numbers DOWN
⬆️emigration UP
🙄& asylum numbers totally steady cos cruelty won’t stop those with no choice!
November 27, 2025 at 12:50 PM
Our conversation is stuck on the far-right -named “Boris wave” while net immigration has actually DROPPED BY EIGHTY PERCENT (80%) since then!!
⬇️work visas DOWN
⬇️student numbers DOWN
⬆️emigration UP
🙄& asylum numbers totally steady cos cruelty won’t stop those with no choice!
⬇️work visas DOWN
⬇️student numbers DOWN
⬆️emigration UP
🙄& asylum numbers totally steady cos cruelty won’t stop those with no choice!
Reposted by Joe Phillips
What did I tell you?
November 27, 2025 at 12:50 PM
What did I tell you?
Reposted by Joe Phillips
Good illustration on the 'migration doom loop'. This is applies to the whole of Europe (including the Netherlands)
Key point: When going through the doom loop, everything always gets worse: The economy does not improve, there is not less support for populists, and irregular migration does not stop
Key point: When going through the doom loop, everything always gets worse: The economy does not improve, there is not less support for populists, and irregular migration does not stop
Today's migration stats illustrate the migration doom loop in action...
(from my presentation at the IMF last week)
(from my presentation at the IMF last week)
November 27, 2025 at 11:39 AM
Good illustration on the 'migration doom loop'. This is applies to the whole of Europe (including the Netherlands)
Key point: When going through the doom loop, everything always gets worse: The economy does not improve, there is not less support for populists, and irregular migration does not stop
Key point: When going through the doom loop, everything always gets worse: The economy does not improve, there is not less support for populists, and irregular migration does not stop
Reposted by Joe Phillips
To make their quota, ICE is now arresting spouses of US citizens who are in the country legally and who have passed all background checks, have no criminal records and are just waiting for their green card to be issued. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/u...
Green Card Interviews End in Handcuffs for Spouses of U.S. Citizens
www.nytimes.com
November 27, 2025 at 3:30 AM
To make their quota, ICE is now arresting spouses of US citizens who are in the country legally and who have passed all background checks, have no criminal records and are just waiting for their green card to be issued. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/u...
Reposted by Joe Phillips
🚨 NEW: 'FROZEN 2': 🧊 Here's the Wales Fiscal Analysis team's first breakdown on what the 2025 Autumn Budget means for Wales
🚨NEWYDD: Beth mae Cyllideb y Hydref 2025 yn ei olygu i Gymru? Dyma ddadansoddiad cyntaf o'r newidiadau sydd ar y ffordd
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
🚨NEWYDD: Beth mae Cyllideb y Hydref 2025 yn ei olygu i Gymru? Dyma ddadansoddiad cyntaf o'r newidiadau sydd ar y ffordd
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Frozen 2: Tax Freezes, the 2-Child Limit (and what the 2025 Autumn Budget means for Wales)
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
November 27, 2025 at 12:23 PM
🚨 NEW: 'FROZEN 2': 🧊 Here's the Wales Fiscal Analysis team's first breakdown on what the 2025 Autumn Budget means for Wales
🚨NEWYDD: Beth mae Cyllideb y Hydref 2025 yn ei olygu i Gymru? Dyma ddadansoddiad cyntaf o'r newidiadau sydd ar y ffordd
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
🚨NEWYDD: Beth mae Cyllideb y Hydref 2025 yn ei olygu i Gymru? Dyma ddadansoddiad cyntaf o'r newidiadau sydd ar y ffordd
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...