Matthew Barnfield
@mbarnfield.bsky.social
British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow at Queen Mary University of London.
matthewbarnfield.co.uk
matthewbarnfield.co.uk
Pinned
I have a new article out at @polstudies.bsky.social. In "Electoral Hope", I make the case that supposedly irrational "wishful thinking" is actually a crucial part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies.
OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...
OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...
Love that there is now a bonus stage to accessing a journal article – before logging in via my institution using 2FA, finding my way back to the article from the homepage after doing so, and requesting to view the pdf twice – of verifying that I am in fact a human being capable of clicking a mouse.
February 9, 2026 at 10:30 AM
Love that there is now a bonus stage to accessing a journal article – before logging in via my institution using 2FA, finding my way back to the article from the homepage after doing so, and requesting to view the pdf twice – of verifying that I am in fact a human being capable of clicking a mouse.
My thoughts on what is (and isn't) at risk for Reform in becoming "Tory Party 2.0", given recent polling, the dynamics of bloc politics, and the party's popularity with 2024 non-voters: theconversation.com/reform-has-b...
Reform has been warned that defecting Tories will damage its brand – and the first evidence is in
Conservative voters have become more positive about Reform since the defections – but some Reform voters have been turned off.
theconversation.com
February 6, 2026 at 2:49 PM
My thoughts on what is (and isn't) at risk for Reform in becoming "Tory Party 2.0", given recent polling, the dynamics of bloc politics, and the party's popularity with 2024 non-voters: theconversation.com/reform-has-b...
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Is it rational to expect to win elections? @mbarnfield.bsky.social argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/04Lq36y
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
buff.ly
February 4, 2026 at 12:01 PM
Is it rational to expect to win elections? @mbarnfield.bsky.social argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/04Lq36y
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Thoughts in the FT on why I don't like the idea of an automatic by election if an MP changes party - but understand why some people do, along with a possible compromise...
How to deal with defecting MPs - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @FT
How to deal with defecting MPs - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @FT
How to deal with defecting MPs
Voters should be able to force parliamentarians who change parties to face the electorate
giftarticle.ft.com
February 1, 2026 at 8:33 AM
Thoughts in the FT on why I don't like the idea of an automatic by election if an MP changes party - but understand why some people do, along with a possible compromise...
How to deal with defecting MPs - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @FT
How to deal with defecting MPs - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @FT
Very pleased to see this out! Karl's conception of centrism as a structure for political action is really compelling
I have a new article just published in Political Studies: What is Centrism? Open access here: doi.org/10.1177/0032...
What Is Centrism? - Karl Pike, 2026
Centrism, an ambiguous political term, requires greater analytical scrutiny. After summarising conceptualisations of centrism – and of a centre in politics – th...
doi.org
January 26, 2026 at 10:08 AM
Very pleased to see this out! Karl's conception of centrism as a structure for political action is really compelling
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Good to see Labour politicians talking about blocs!
labourlist.org/2026/01/avoi...
If you want to know more, you can read our article introducing the idea in Britain here: academic.oup.com/pa/article/7...
Also Green and Miori's excellent work here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
labourlist.org/2026/01/avoi...
If you want to know more, you can read our article introducing the idea in Britain here: academic.oup.com/pa/article/7...
Also Green and Miori's excellent work here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
'Avoiding the iceberg' - LabourList
Labour’s polling crisis isn’t about Reform voters but losing progressives. To avoid electoral collapse, the party must clarify its values and unite its bloc.
labourlist.org
January 14, 2026 at 7:53 PM
Good to see Labour politicians talking about blocs!
labourlist.org/2026/01/avoi...
If you want to know more, you can read our article introducing the idea in Britain here: academic.oup.com/pa/article/7...
Also Green and Miori's excellent work here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
labourlist.org/2026/01/avoi...
If you want to know more, you can read our article introducing the idea in Britain here: academic.oup.com/pa/article/7...
Also Green and Miori's excellent work here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Absolutely! I have been super reliant on Marta's excellent work
January 14, 2026 at 6:35 PM
Absolutely! I have been super reliant on Marta's excellent work
Blocs really are all the rage now huh.
I would add that the work of @martamiori.bsky.social, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and other ECRs has also gone a long way to making that happen!
I would add that the work of @martamiori.bsky.social, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and other ECRs has also gone a long way to making that happen!
Gratifying to see that some Labour MPs are now engaging with the bloc politics argument that @profjanegreen.bsky.social @psurridge.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @joxley.jmoxley.co.uk @robfordmancs.bsky.social @timbale.bsky.social and I have all been making.
labourlist.org/2026/01/avoi...
labourlist.org/2026/01/avoi...
'Avoiding the iceberg' - LabourList
Labour’s polling crisis isn’t about Reform voters but losing progressives. To avoid electoral collapse, the party must clarify its values and unite its bloc.
labourlist.org
January 14, 2026 at 6:18 PM
Blocs really are all the rage now huh.
I would add that the work of @martamiori.bsky.social, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and other ECRs has also gone a long way to making that happen!
I would add that the work of @martamiori.bsky.social, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and other ECRs has also gone a long way to making that happen!
We have just published a paper showing that, while informing (German) people about public opinion on climate change increases their perceptions of public support for policy action, it doesn't really increase how much they support it themselves.
doi.org/10.1016/j.je...
TL;DR: see Joe's thread.
doi.org/10.1016/j.je...
TL;DR: see Joe's thread.
How does information on public opinion on environmental issues shape citizens' opinions? Out and open access with @mbarnfield.bsky.social, @florianstoeckel.bsky.social, @benlyons.bsky.social, @vittoriomerola.bsky.social, and @jasonreifler.bsky.social + others! www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Information on public opinion has lasting effects on second-order climate beliefs, but minimal and ephemeral effects on first-order beliefs
Across western democracies, pro-climate beliefs are widespread. Yet, vocal minorities contest scientific consensus about global warming. Perhaps as a …
www.sciencedirect.com
January 12, 2026 at 1:35 PM
We have just published a paper showing that, while informing (German) people about public opinion on climate change increases their perceptions of public support for policy action, it doesn't really increase how much they support it themselves.
doi.org/10.1016/j.je...
TL;DR: see Joe's thread.
doi.org/10.1016/j.je...
TL;DR: see Joe's thread.
Have to wonder how many of the “literary men” whose loss is lamented in this piece would have been labelled “performative males” in 2025.
Here's to not mocking men for reading in 2026.
www.ft.com/content/da33...
Here's to not mocking men for reading in 2026.
www.ft.com/content/da33...
Why men should really be reading more fiction
Novels require a kind of attention that the modern world is steadily eroding
www.ft.com
January 11, 2026 at 3:22 PM
Have to wonder how many of the “literary men” whose loss is lamented in this piece would have been labelled “performative males” in 2025.
Here's to not mocking men for reading in 2026.
www.ft.com/content/da33...
Here's to not mocking men for reading in 2026.
www.ft.com/content/da33...
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
This article deserves all the praise it's getting, despite its egregious reference to the fish disco as proof of something or other.
Particularly worth looking up @pollymackenzie.bsky.social stack on the misuse of "levers" as a metaphor...
www.economist.com/britain/2026...
Particularly worth looking up @pollymackenzie.bsky.social stack on the misuse of "levers" as a metaphor...
www.economist.com/britain/2026...
State capacity is the issue of the age
The Labour Party and its rivals agree on much about what is wrong with government
www.economist.com
January 9, 2026 at 12:02 PM
This article deserves all the praise it's getting, despite its egregious reference to the fish disco as proof of something or other.
Particularly worth looking up @pollymackenzie.bsky.social stack on the misuse of "levers" as a metaphor...
www.economist.com/britain/2026...
Particularly worth looking up @pollymackenzie.bsky.social stack on the misuse of "levers" as a metaphor...
www.economist.com/britain/2026...
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
🚨 NEW BLOG
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Consolidation, Not Conversion: Understanding Wales’s Ongoing Realignment
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
December 17, 2025 at 9:10 AM
🚨 NEW BLOG
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
"Labour’s... “red lines”—on reducing migration, on not raising taxes, and on not joining the EU's customs union... are still holding up. But the other “red line”... on graphs showing how many people intend to vote for Labour? Not so much."
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/718...
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/718...
Labour’s Mr Micawber politics
The government hopes that ‘something will turn up’ to produce growth, but curbing immigration will only harm the economy
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk
December 16, 2025 at 11:17 AM
"Labour’s... “red lines”—on reducing migration, on not raising taxes, and on not joining the EU's customs union... are still holding up. But the other “red line”... on graphs showing how many people intend to vote for Labour? Not so much."
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/718...
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/718...
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
10 nuggets from the new "British General Election of 2024" book, courtesy of @timbale.bsky.social
theconversation.com/the-ten-most...
theconversation.com/the-ten-most...
The ten most surprising facts from the 2024 election revealed
Voters cared a lot less about tax than you might think.
theconversation.com
December 15, 2025 at 1:14 PM
10 nuggets from the new "British General Election of 2024" book, courtesy of @timbale.bsky.social
theconversation.com/the-ten-most...
theconversation.com/the-ten-most...
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Are Reform at their ceiling?
@martamiori.bsky.social and I explored @britishelectionstudy.com data and found a high % of May 2025 Con voters could switch.
We think it depends on intensity of preference and right-bloc party viability.
Link here:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...
@martamiori.bsky.social and I explored @britishelectionstudy.com data and found a high % of May 2025 Con voters could switch.
We think it depends on intensity of preference and right-bloc party viability.
Link here:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...
Considering Reform’s Potential ‘Ceiling’ - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk
December 12, 2025 at 10:38 AM
Are Reform at their ceiling?
@martamiori.bsky.social and I explored @britishelectionstudy.com data and found a high % of May 2025 Con voters could switch.
We think it depends on intensity of preference and right-bloc party viability.
Link here:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...
@martamiori.bsky.social and I explored @britishelectionstudy.com data and found a high % of May 2025 Con voters could switch.
We think it depends on intensity of preference and right-bloc party viability.
Link here:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
In this short piece (also in PSA Insights this issue), @martamiori.bsky.social and I explain the bloc structure in what’s happening in GB electoral politics and why this matters. Nice and simple summary here:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/brit...
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/brit...
Britain’s Quiet Electoral Earthquake - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk
December 10, 2025 at 2:52 PM
In this short piece (also in PSA Insights this issue), @martamiori.bsky.social and I explain the bloc structure in what’s happening in GB electoral politics and why this matters. Nice and simple summary here:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/brit...
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/brit...
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Pushing policy to new and never-before-seen boundaries of craziness. London is a great city! Not as good as Manchester, sure, but you can't have it all. That some Americans have convinced themselves that it is a dangerous hellscape is bizarre.
The US president also singles out London, saying it is now a ‘different place’ and refers to the mayor Sadiq Khan as ‘disgusting’ ⬇️
Trump: Europe is decaying group of nations led by weak people
The US president also singles out London, saying it is now a ‘different place’ and refers to the mayor Sadiq Khan as ‘disgusting’
www.thetimes.com
December 9, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Pushing policy to new and never-before-seen boundaries of craziness. London is a great city! Not as good as Manchester, sure, but you can't have it all. That some Americans have convinced themselves that it is a dangerous hellscape is bizarre.
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Is it rational to expect to win elections? @mbarnfield.bsky.social argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/VudD2ir
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
December 3, 2025 at 10:01 PM
Is it rational to expect to win elections? @mbarnfield.bsky.social argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/VudD2ir
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Personal news! 📣
I'm very happy to share that today I've joined @dec-gr.bsky.social as a postdoc to work on the @tact-forsed.bsky.social project, studying conspiracy beliefs and democratic backsliding across Europe.
Grateful to @galais.bsky.social and @mguinjoan.bsky.social for the opportunity!
I'm very happy to share that today I've joined @dec-gr.bsky.social as a postdoc to work on the @tact-forsed.bsky.social project, studying conspiracy beliefs and democratic backsliding across Europe.
Grateful to @galais.bsky.social and @mguinjoan.bsky.social for the opportunity!
December 1, 2025 at 10:18 AM
Personal news! 📣
I'm very happy to share that today I've joined @dec-gr.bsky.social as a postdoc to work on the @tact-forsed.bsky.social project, studying conspiracy beliefs and democratic backsliding across Europe.
Grateful to @galais.bsky.social and @mguinjoan.bsky.social for the opportunity!
I'm very happy to share that today I've joined @dec-gr.bsky.social as a postdoc to work on the @tact-forsed.bsky.social project, studying conspiracy beliefs and democratic backsliding across Europe.
Grateful to @galais.bsky.social and @mguinjoan.bsky.social for the opportunity!
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Join and help to lead the Constitution Unit!
@uclspp.bsky.social is looking for a Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics who will also join our senior team and contribute to our research and impact activities.
Applicants must have, or be near to finishing, a PhD.
Apply 👇
@uclspp.bsky.social is looking for a Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics who will also join our senior team and contribute to our research and impact activities.
Applicants must have, or be near to finishing, a PhD.
Apply 👇
Job opportunity: Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics
The UCL Department of Political Science and Constitution Unit are seeking to appoint a Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics. The successful candidate will join the senior team at the Unit.
www.ucl.ac.uk
November 28, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Join and help to lead the Constitution Unit!
@uclspp.bsky.social is looking for a Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics who will also join our senior team and contribute to our research and impact activities.
Applicants must have, or be near to finishing, a PhD.
Apply 👇
@uclspp.bsky.social is looking for a Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics who will also join our senior team and contribute to our research and impact activities.
Applicants must have, or be near to finishing, a PhD.
Apply 👇
A short piece for Renewal on how the government's failure to present a consistent political argument is, despite its "long-termist" rhetoric, about not being orientated towards a political vision for the future.
"If the government is to have any hope of getting itself back into the driver’s seat of our political moment, of getting its future back, it must start arguing in terms of a bold and coherent vision for the future."
@mbarnfield.bsky.social on the budget and the government's empty long-termism
@mbarnfield.bsky.social on the budget and the government's empty long-termism
This Labour government lacks a future
You might be forgiven for thinking that the Labour government is focused on the future. Since before his government’s first Budget, the Prime Minister has repeatedly asked the British public to stomac...
renewal.org.uk
November 28, 2025 at 3:48 PM
A short piece for Renewal on how the government's failure to present a consistent political argument is, despite its "long-termist" rhetoric, about not being orientated towards a political vision for the future.
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Tune in to episode 103 of me *waving wildly at charts about charts* At least I aspire to never be accused of being boring!
Next week, in the final instalment of our autumn online seminar series, @williamlallen.bsky.social will present important work on the effects of data visualisation of refugee inflows.
Register to attend here: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/c939c6...
Register to attend here: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/c939c6...
*PSA EVENT* 🚨NEXT WEEK🚨 #Political #Psychology Research Seminar Series: ‘Visualisation Choices about Refugees Have Delimited Impacts Along Partisan Lines’ with William Allen @unisouthampton.bsky.social
📆 4 Dec 12 - 13.00, online
➡️ buff.ly/UVnPScZ
@psapolpsychology.bsky.social
📆 4 Dec 12 - 13.00, online
➡️ buff.ly/UVnPScZ
@psapolpsychology.bsky.social
November 27, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Tune in to episode 103 of me *waving wildly at charts about charts* At least I aspire to never be accused of being boring!
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
NEW! How should Labour respond to the two key issues to voters of the economy and immigration and what are the electoral stakes this week of the budget?
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
November 24, 2025 at 11:02 AM
NEW! How should Labour respond to the two key issues to voters of the economy and immigration and what are the electoral stakes this week of the budget?
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
NEW ARTICLE: @palesl.bsky.social, Vesa Koskimaa and I have an letter out in JOP, "Politicians talk less about the future as they age" doi.org/10.1086/739406 (1/10)
Legislators talk less about the future as they age | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
doi.org
November 21, 2025 at 12:53 PM
NEW ARTICLE: @palesl.bsky.social, Vesa Koskimaa and I have an letter out in JOP, "Politicians talk less about the future as they age" doi.org/10.1086/739406 (1/10)
So good by @duncanrobinson.bsky.social on British politics' (young) "male gaze":
www.economist.com/britain/2025...
www.economist.com/britain/2025...
The panic over a male crisis in Britain is overblown
But some manly problems are undeniable
www.economist.com
November 21, 2025 at 1:10 PM
So good by @duncanrobinson.bsky.social on British politics' (young) "male gaze":
www.economist.com/britain/2025...
www.economist.com/britain/2025...