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Reposted by Matthew Barnfield

Will Allen @williamlallen.bsky.social · 6d

Another chance to see me profess my love (and the limits) of charts to change minds. Thanks @psapolpsychology.bsky.social for hosting! And check out the whole autumn series which looks excellent.

PSA Political Psychology Specialist Group @psapolpsychology.bsky.social · 6d

Finally, three weeks later on Thursday 4th December at 12:00, @williamlallen.bsky.social rounds out the series by presenting important insights into the partisan attitudinal effects of data visualisation of refugee numbers.

Register: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/c939c6...

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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 6d

Following the success of our spring seminar series earlier this year, we @psapolpsychology.bsky.social are running an autumn/winter series, with four online presentations by great scholars.

Please do register and come along to hear about some really fascinating research!

PSA Political Psychology Specialist Group @psapolpsychology.bsky.social · 6d

This time in two weeks, we will launch our autumn/winter seminar series. We have an exciting line-up of four online talks covering a range of topics in political psychology.

All presentations are on Thursdays at 12:00 UK.

Sign up to attend here!: www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g...

Political Psychology | The Political Studies Association (PSA)

Political Psychology is a multi-disciplinary group established to provide a forum for collaboration, discussion and support for political psychology scholars and practitioners as well as to facilitate...

www.psa.ac.uk

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Reposted by Matthew Barnfield

Alejandro Fernández-Roldán @aleferna.bsky.social · 27d

This polling discrepancy is a huge concern when you consider how polls influence political behaviour. Last year, @mbarnfield.bsky.social and I published a paper about the dangers of this exact situation - a 'mixed-poll environment' with conflicting estimates academic.oup.com/ijpor/articl...

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Reposted by Matthew Barnfield

Alejandro Fernández-Roldán @aleferna.bsky.social · 27d

Ever struggle to explain why your research is relevant? Sometimes the data just does it for you! 👇

Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅

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Reposted by Matthew Barnfield

Vittorio Merola @vittoriomerola.bsky.social · 27d

I'd say there are 2 unscientific ways that "irrational" as a concept is used:

Descriptive: irrational is a definitional tautology (everything has a reason to it), making it useless

Normative: irrational is deviations from a desired benchmark, making it elitist & judgmental

Please stop using it!

Political Studies @polstudies.bsky.social · 28d

Is it rational to expect to win elections? @mbarnfield.bsky.social argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/g5aHeG0

@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com

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Reposted by Matthew Barnfield

Political Studies @polstudies.bsky.social · 28d

Is it rational to expect to win elections? @mbarnfield.bsky.social argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/g5aHeG0

@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com

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Reposted by Matthew Barnfield

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · Sep 5

Radical right accommodation really does not work.

New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk

doi.org/10.31235/osf...

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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · Aug 18

Congratulations!

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Reposted by Matthew Barnfield

Peter Allen @peterallen.bsky.social · Aug 11

This article is refreshing not least because it starts from the point of thinking about voters as they actually are, not as we might wish them to be. The key idea — that voters aren’t pundits and political science shouldn’t expect them to be — is crucial.

Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · Aug 6

I have a new article out at @polstudies.bsky.social. In "Electoral Hope", I make the case that supposedly irrational "wishful thinking" is actually a crucial part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies.

OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...

Title page of article "Electoral Hope" in journal Political Studies.

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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · Aug 8

Thank you! I hope it delivers.

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Reposted by Matthew Barnfield

Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · Aug 8

Come for the interesting argument; stay for the excellent prose.

Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · Aug 6

I have a new article out at @polstudies.bsky.social. In "Electoral Hope", I make the case that supposedly irrational "wishful thinking" is actually a crucial part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies.

OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...

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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · Aug 8

Thanks Jack, that's kind!

Reposted by Matthew Barnfield

Rainbow Murray @rainbowmurray.bsky.social · Jul 25

New job opportunity! Come work with me at @qmpoliticsir.bsky.social on my major project on the political representation of men.
You: PhD in relevant area, strong quantitative methods skills, interest in representation.
The job: 18 months full-time, London or remote qmul-jobs.tal.net/vx/appcentre...

Postdoctoral Research Associate - QMUL Jobs

ID: 6685. Title: Postdoctoral Research Associate. Application Deadline:

qmul-jobs.tal.net

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Reposted by Matthew Barnfield

Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · Aug 6

I have a new article out at @polstudies.bsky.social. In "Electoral Hope", I make the case that supposedly irrational "wishful thinking" is actually a crucial part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies.

OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...

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Reposted by Matthew Barnfield

Peter Luca Versteegen @versteegenluca.bsky.social · Aug 6

This paper sounds fascinating in so many regards ⬇️⬇️

Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · Aug 6

I have a new article out at @polstudies.bsky.social. In "Electoral Hope", I make the case that supposedly irrational "wishful thinking" is actually a crucial part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies.

OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...

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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · Aug 6

Thank you!

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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · Aug 6

I am very grateful to @peterallen.bsky.social, @palestrinomirko.bsky.social, @karlpike.bsky.social, @salomeietter.bsky.social, and my brother Jamie for comments on versions of this paper. @robjohns75.bsky.social also provided constructive criticism of a very early (bad) version of the idea.

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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · Aug 6

So partisan differences in electoral expectations are not necessarily cause for concern.

What should worry us is specifically when people hope for anti-democratic outcomes that undermine the very possibility of the autonomous democratic action on which the rationality of electoral hope depends.

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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · Aug 6

On this view, the apparent bias we observe in voters' expectations is not some niche but politically problematic instance of irrationality.

It might even be evidence of electoral democracy functioning as it should: voters trying to act rationally to produce subjectively right political outcomes.

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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · Aug 6

I draw on a lively philosophical literature on hope to explain how, why, and under what circumstances this principle of electoral hope is justified.

My argument suggests that for many partisans, much of the time, it is rational to hold out hope that the outcome they support might be achieved.

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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · Aug 6

So voting operates on what I call a "principle of electoral hope": when we have reasons to believe that an election outcome is the right one, taking those reasons to be reasons to vote for the outcome entails, by default, believing it is possible the outcome will be achieved.

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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · Aug 6

By which I mean: voters are not in the business of predicting election outcomes, but of producing them.

And for acting towards producing an election outcome to be (practically) rational – to make sense as an action – it must be possible that this outcome will be achieved.

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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · Aug 6

Scholars seem to have reached something of a consensus that wishful thinking is irrational, and therefore a bad thing.

The trouble with this account, I argue, is that it only judges voters' rationality in *theoretical* terms. But for voters, elections are a *practical* matter.

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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · Aug 6

For the best part of a century, political scientists have observed that people who favour an election outcome say it has a higher chance of success than people who oppose it.

This pattern has been dubbed “wishful thinking”.

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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · Aug 6

I have a new article out at @polstudies.bsky.social. In "Electoral Hope", I make the case that supposedly irrational "wishful thinking" is actually a crucial part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies.

OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...

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