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Reposted by Salam Alsaadi

Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · Jun 23

Happy to see this out in the world!

In a nutshell: people are more willing to support violence when they don't see readily available nonviolent alternatives.

Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · Jun 20

New study by @matthewcebul.bsky.social & J. Pinckney asks “How do nonviolent alternatives affect international support for violent rebel groups?”

Surveys across 30+ countries find “alternative resistance options consistently reduce support for armed rebellion…” journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Nonviolent alternatives reduce external support for rebel groups: Evidence from two cross-national survey experiments - Matthew Cebul, Jonathan Pinckney, 2025

How do nonviolent alternatives affect international support for violent rebel groups? Armed rebellions are often sustained by outside sympathy and support, whic...

journals.sagepub.com

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Salam Alsaadi @alsaadi.bsky.social · Jun 22

Seems like "mowing the lawn" is their long-term strategy and they clearly believe it’s sustainable--at least under the current world order

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Salam Alsaadi @alsaadi.bsky.social · Jun 4

Thank you!!

Salam Alsaadi @alsaadi.bsky.social · Jun 3

I deeply appreciate the invaluable feedback from so many mentors and colleagues. I’m also very thankful to the
@apsrjournal.bsky.social reviewers and editors whose feedback greatly improved this paper.

Salam Alsaadi @alsaadi.bsky.social · Jun 3

Contributions:
1) First systematic theory of minority regimes.

2) Challenges assumptions in ethnic stacking lit—shows when identity drives loyalty, and when it doesn't.

3) Bridges conflict & authoritarianism research by explaining when ethnic regimes are stable vs. vulnerable.

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Salam Alsaadi @alsaadi.bsky.social · Jun 3

This is a mixed-methods paper using:

– Original dataset on minority autocracies (1900–2015).

– Case study of Bahrain, drawing on interview data collected during my fieldwork in Bahrain, Lebanon, and London (UK).

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Salam Alsaadi @alsaadi.bsky.social · Jun 3

This fear generates 3 key dynamics:

1⃣ The demobilization of the minority group, which engages in policing and sanctioning dissenting coethnics.

2⃣ Countermobilization of coethnics– loyal civilians and militias participate in repression.

3⃣ Elite cohesion/ no defections.

1

Salam Alsaadi @alsaadi.bsky.social · Jun 3

I find that minority regimes excluding a single majority group (e.g, Syria, Bahrain, Apartheid S. Africa) are exceptionally durable. (3 times less likely to breakdown).

Why?
Fear of majoritarian rule creates a high threat perception among ruling minorities and a largely "unconditional loyalty".

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Salam Alsaadi @alsaadi.bsky.social · Jun 3

I distinguish between two types of minority autocracies:

1⃣ Those that exclude a majority ethnic group.

2⃣ Those that exclude other minorities in highly fractionalized societies where no group is a majority.

1

Salam Alsaadi @alsaadi.bsky.social · Jun 3

In ethnically divided societies, autocrats rely on ethnic identity to stay in power—but coethnics don’t always fall in line. I explain variation in loyalty and regime durability by showing how relative group size and ethnic configuration shape threat perceptions and loyalty among ruling minorities.

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Salam Alsaadi @alsaadi.bsky.social · Jun 3

Very happy to see my paper, "Unconditional Loyalty: The Survival of Minority Autocracies", finally out in the American Political Science Review @apsrjournal.bsky.social

Quick thread below🧵

Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · Jun 2

#OpenAccess from @apsrjournal.bsky.social -

Unconditional Loyalty: The Survival of Minority Autocracies - cup.org/4dGBC0K

"a multi-method approach, using a novel dataset of minority regimes and a case study of Bahrain based on original interviews"

- @alsaadi.bsky.social

#FirstView

Banner featuring the hashtag '#OpenAccess' in white text on a green background above the name 'American Political Science Review' in white text on a blue background.

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Salam Alsaadi @alsaadi.bsky.social · Jun 3

I deeply appreciate the invaluable feedback from so many mentors and colleagues. I’m also very thankful to the
@apsrjournal.bsky.social reviewers and editors whose feedback greatly improved this paper.

Salam Alsaadi @alsaadi.bsky.social · Jun 3

Contributions:

1) First systematic theory of minority regimes.

2) Challenges assumptions in ethnic stacking lit—shows when identity drives loyalty, and when it doesn't.

3) Bridges conflict & authoritarianism research by explaining when ethnic regimes are stable vs. vulnerable.

1

Salam Alsaadi @alsaadi.bsky.social · Jun 3

This is a mixed-methods paper using:

– Original dataset on minority autocracies (1900–2015).

– Case study of Bahrain, drawing on interview data collected during my fieldwork in Bahrain, Lebanon, and London (UK).

1 1

Salam Alsaadi @alsaadi.bsky.social · Jun 3

This fear generates 3 key dynamics:

1⃣ The demobilization of the minority group, which engages in policing and sanctioning dissenting coethnics.

2⃣ Countermobilization of coethnics– loyal civilians and militias participate in repression.

3⃣ Elite cohesion/ no defections.

1

Salam Alsaadi @alsaadi.bsky.social · Jun 3

I find that minority regimes excluding a single majority group (e.g, Syria, Bahrain, Apartheid S. Africa) are exceptionally durable. (3 times less likely to breakdown).

Why?
Fear of majoritarian rule creates a high threat perception among ruling minorities and a largely "unconditional loyalty".

1

Salam Alsaadi @alsaadi.bsky.social · Jun 3

I distinguish between two types of minority autocracies:

1⃣ Those that exclude a majority ethnic group.

2⃣ Those that exclude other minorities in highly fractionalized societies where no group is a majority.

1

Salam Alsaadi @alsaadi.bsky.social · Jun 3

In ethnically divided societies, autocrats rely on ethnic identity to stay in power—but coethnics don’t always fall in line. I explain variation in loyalty and regime durability by showing how relative group size and ethnic configuration shape threat perceptions and loyalty among ruling minorities.

1

Reposted by Salam Alsaadi

Dan de Kadt @dandekadt.bsky.social · May 14

🚨 “Good Description” with @annagbusse.bsky.social 🚨

What sets 'good' description apart from 'mere' description?

We develop a framework for evaluating descriptive research, whether we are doing it as scholars or assessing it as readers.

Two main contributions...

🔗📄 tinyurl.com/gooddesc

good_description/good_description_ddk_agb.pdf at main · ddekadt/good_description

Homepage of "Good Description" by Daniel de Kadt & Anna Grzymala-Busse - ddekadt/good_description

tinyurl.com

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Reposted by Salam Alsaadi

Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · May 14

A few further thoughts on Trump's Syria announcement. First, beyond the obvious benefit for Syrians, it might have a broader impact: it demonstrates, for the first time I can remember, that American sanctions aren't a one-way ratchet. They can be lifted if conditions change. 🧵

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Reposted by Salam Alsaadi

Wolfram Lacher @wlacher.bsky.social · May 12

Clashes in Tripoli after weeks of build-up between rival forces. The trigger was the killing of Abdelghani "Ghnewa" al-Kikli, the city's most powerful militia leader, in circumstances that are as yet unclear - apparently during a meeting.

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Reposted by Salam Alsaadi

William D. O'Connell @williamoconnell.bsky.social · May 11

In case you ever feel like your vote doesn't matter, know there is one person in suburban Montréal who did, literally, cast the deciding vote.

Quebec riding of Terrebonne flips to Liberals after recount shows candidate won by single vote | CBC News

After a judicial recount, sources tell CBC News the Quebec riding of Terrebonne has flipped to the Liberals, who have beaten the Bloc Québécois by one vote. The result means the Liberals have 170 seat...

www.cbc.ca

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Salam Alsaadi @alsaadi.bsky.social · May 9

Thank you so much, William!

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Salam Alsaadi @alsaadi.bsky.social · May 9

Really sorry to hear this. I know that your work and your contributions to the community have meant so much to so many!

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Salam Alsaadi @alsaadi.bsky.social · May 9

Personal news- I’ll be joining the University of Georgia’s Department of International Affairs as an Assistant Professor in 2026, after a postdoc at Harvard’s Weatherhead Center this year. I’m really excited for these next steps and deeply thankful to everyone who’s supported me along the way.

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