Matthew Cebul
@matthewcebul.bsky.social
Political scientist studying civil resistance, democratic erosion, and US foreign policy in MENA. Lead Research Fellow at HKS Nonviolent Action Lab; formerly USIP. Manservant to Korra the cat.
Lives for Alcaraz highlights, epic fantasy, and "draw a card."
Lives for Alcaraz highlights, epic fantasy, and "draw a card."
Pinned
Young people from Peru to Madagascar to Nepal — furious with political elites reaping the spoils of privilege and corruption — are rising up to demand change, write Erica Chenoweth and @matthewcebul.bsky.social. Read "Why Gen-Z Is Rising" in our new January issue!
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...
Kicking off 2026 writing with @chenoweth.bsky.social on global Gen-Z protests.
Young people do *not* like corruption, and Gen-Z protests are destabilizing corrupt governments everywhere. Yet for several reasons, we should temper expectations for durable democratic reforms to emerge in their wake.
Young people do *not* like corruption, and Gen-Z protests are destabilizing corrupt governments everywhere. Yet for several reasons, we should temper expectations for durable democratic reforms to emerge in their wake.
This is the ultimate futility of Trumpism: in their desperation to exclude immigrants from some herrenvolk American society, MAGA ethnonationalists are in fact compelling everyday Americans to reaffirm and strengthen their communal bonds to immigrants.
My theory of the moment: The extraordinary courage of ordinary people in places like Minneapolis is reawakening us to our social and economic ties to immigrants. It's making "love thy neighbor" cool again. That's the ultimate antidote to MAGA hate.
Thoughts on this:
newrepublic.com/article/2059...
Thoughts on this:
newrepublic.com/article/2059...
February 16, 2026 at 4:52 PM
This is the ultimate futility of Trumpism: in their desperation to exclude immigrants from some herrenvolk American society, MAGA ethnonationalists are in fact compelling everyday Americans to reaffirm and strengthen their communal bonds to immigrants.
Reposted by Matthew Cebul
Reposted by Matthew Cebul
My team at the Crowd Counting Consortium (@djpressman.bsky.social, Soha Hammam, & Chris Shay) has shared a big data update, covering all recorded US protests through Jan 2026. Some key takeaways 🧵:
February 12, 2026 at 6:19 PM
My team at the Crowd Counting Consortium (@djpressman.bsky.social, Soha Hammam, & Chris Shay) has shared a big data update, covering all recorded US protests through Jan 2026. Some key takeaways 🧵:
Reposted by Matthew Cebul
DOGE cut US humanitarian aid spending from $14 billion (2024) to only $3.7 billion (2025). Global aid is now 40% below 2022 levels
"The net effect has been a historic implosion of global humanitarian response."
www.refugeesinternational.org/reports-brie...
"The net effect has been a historic implosion of global humanitarian response."
www.refugeesinternational.org/reports-brie...
A Generational Collapse: Tracking the Toll of Trump’s Humanitarian Aid Cuts - Refugees International
The consequences of these cuts have been deadly and devastating and are now coming into focus. Will humanitarian funding ever rebound?
www.refugeesinternational.org
February 6, 2026 at 4:49 PM
DOGE cut US humanitarian aid spending from $14 billion (2024) to only $3.7 billion (2025). Global aid is now 40% below 2022 levels
"The net effect has been a historic implosion of global humanitarian response."
www.refugeesinternational.org/reports-brie...
"The net effect has been a historic implosion of global humanitarian response."
www.refugeesinternational.org/reports-brie...
Writing off every Trump voter as an irredeemable bigot is *exactly what the GOP wants you to do.*
We all have our prejudices. But most people want to be decent, and plenty of GOP voters struggle to reconcile Trump with that (usually by burying their heads in the sand).
Those people are winnable!
We all have our prejudices. But most people want to be decent, and plenty of GOP voters struggle to reconcile Trump with that (usually by burying their heads in the sand).
Those people are winnable!
Creating defections is the whole game. You may think what's behind MAGA is obvious. But I'm telling you lots of these people would never see themselves as gutter racists. And almost none would ever want to be called a Nazi.
3x Trump voter: “He takes bribes blatantly, now he’s being a racist blatantly.”
February 6, 2026 at 4:38 PM
Writing off every Trump voter as an irredeemable bigot is *exactly what the GOP wants you to do.*
We all have our prejudices. But most people want to be decent, and plenty of GOP voters struggle to reconcile Trump with that (usually by burying their heads in the sand).
Those people are winnable!
We all have our prejudices. But most people want to be decent, and plenty of GOP voters struggle to reconcile Trump with that (usually by burying their heads in the sand).
Those people are winnable!
Ok this might be the funniest thing he’s ever said
Trump: "Mike Johnson is a very religious person. He does not hide it. He'll say to me sometimes at lunch, 'Sir, may we pray.' I'll say, 'Excuse me? We're having lunch.'"
February 5, 2026 at 3:28 PM
Ok this might be the funniest thing he’s ever said
MAGA voters may like the abstract idea of punishing disfavored groups, but it is far harder to keep a clean conscience when the concentration camps are in their own backyards.
Miller is forcing Americans to stare into the abyss, and the crushing majority of Americans want no part of it.
Miller is forcing Americans to stare into the abyss, and the crushing majority of Americans want no part of it.
Remarkable: Trump's planned migrant prison camps are hitting deep resistance in red areas. In Virginia's partly rural Hanover (+26 Trump) opposition is intense. GOP leaders in other states are opposed.
Voters are rejecting mass deportations big time. 1/
(new piece)
newrepublic.com/article/2060...
Voters are rejecting mass deportations big time. 1/
(new piece)
newrepublic.com/article/2060...
Trump’s New “Prison Camp” Threat Unleashes Fury Even in MAGA Country
The next phase of ICE’s big ramp-up: a nationwide network of vast detention facilities. But guess what? Even parts of Red America are saying no.
newrepublic.com
February 4, 2026 at 3:24 PM
MAGA voters may like the abstract idea of punishing disfavored groups, but it is far harder to keep a clean conscience when the concentration camps are in their own backyards.
Miller is forcing Americans to stare into the abyss, and the crushing majority of Americans want no part of it.
Miller is forcing Americans to stare into the abyss, and the crushing majority of Americans want no part of it.
As Bartels tells us, democracy erodes from the top
one thing the trump era has made clear, i think, is that the american people themselves are far more committed to the values of our founding documents than our elites
February 4, 2026 at 12:46 PM
As Bartels tells us, democracy erodes from the top
This conversation by @adambonica.bsky.social and @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social is making the rounds today for good reason. Their emphasis on genuine, costly anti-corruption reforms as the key to rebuilding popular support for the Democrats is dead on.
www.bostonreview.net/forum/how-no...
www.bostonreview.net/forum/how-no...
February 3, 2026 at 5:50 PM
This conversation by @adambonica.bsky.social and @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social is making the rounds today for good reason. Their emphasis on genuine, costly anti-corruption reforms as the key to rebuilding popular support for the Democrats is dead on.
www.bostonreview.net/forum/how-no...
www.bostonreview.net/forum/how-no...
Alcaraz is incredible. He's years ahead of Fed and Djokovic, and giving himself a real shot at GOAT status.
But to tie Djoko's slam record, he still needs to win 2 slams a year for the next EIGHT years. He's making it look easy for now, but chasing down the Big Three is a truly herculean labor.
But to tie Djoko's slam record, he still needs to win 2 slams a year for the next EIGHT years. He's making it look easy for now, but chasing down the Big Three is a truly herculean labor.
February 2, 2026 at 4:28 PM
Alcaraz is incredible. He's years ahead of Fed and Djokovic, and giving himself a real shot at GOAT status.
But to tie Djoko's slam record, he still needs to win 2 slams a year for the next EIGHT years. He's making it look easy for now, but chasing down the Big Three is a truly herculean labor.
But to tie Djoko's slam record, he still needs to win 2 slams a year for the next EIGHT years. He's making it look easy for now, but chasing down the Big Three is a truly herculean labor.
Reposted by Matthew Cebul
DOCTOR: I told him he needed to get out to a show, that was how he would cure his depression.
CHOTINER: So you learned this technique in school?
DR: No, not— listen it was good advice. Pagliacci was in town.
C: Right. Is it standard to give advice before learning a patient’s name?
DR: Now look
CHOTINER: So you learned this technique in school?
DR: No, not— listen it was good advice. Pagliacci was in town.
C: Right. Is it standard to give advice before learning a patient’s name?
DR: Now look
February 2, 2026 at 3:58 AM
DOCTOR: I told him he needed to get out to a show, that was how he would cure his depression.
CHOTINER: So you learned this technique in school?
DR: No, not— listen it was good advice. Pagliacci was in town.
C: Right. Is it standard to give advice before learning a patient’s name?
DR: Now look
CHOTINER: So you learned this technique in school?
DR: No, not— listen it was good advice. Pagliacci was in town.
C: Right. Is it standard to give advice before learning a patient’s name?
DR: Now look
The GOP is now stuck between the rock of Trump's "never admit wrongdoing" personalist cult, and the hard place of cratering popular support.
Dems need to quash any impulse to compromise on DHS funding and instead ruthlessly twist the Abolish ICE knife.
Dems need to quash any impulse to compromise on DHS funding and instead ruthlessly twist the Abolish ICE knife.
A narrow majority of Republicans (56%) now say they support all or most of Donald Trump's plans and policies, down from two-thirds (67%) in February 2025. It's one of several measures of a loosening GOP support for Trump in a new @pewresearch.org survey: www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
February 1, 2026 at 6:02 PM
The GOP is now stuck between the rock of Trump's "never admit wrongdoing" personalist cult, and the hard place of cratering popular support.
Dems need to quash any impulse to compromise on DHS funding and instead ruthlessly twist the Abolish ICE knife.
Dems need to quash any impulse to compromise on DHS funding and instead ruthlessly twist the Abolish ICE knife.
American policing is rife with abuse and needs reform.
Also, it is a mistake to paint local police and a lawless ICE with the same brush -- driving a wedge between the two is an urgent priority for the US democracy movement.
There is room in the democracy coalition for all of us.
Also, it is a mistake to paint local police and a lawless ICE with the same brush -- driving a wedge between the two is an urgent priority for the US democracy movement.
There is room in the democracy coalition for all of us.
"MPR News has learned that the police chief in the small southern Minnesota city of St. Peter intervened Thursday afternoon to prevent federal immigration agents from arresting a local resident" who had been observing federal agents. www.mprnews.org/story/2026/0...
St. Peter police chief intervenes, prevents federal agents from arresting resident
The police chief of St. Peter intervened to prevent federal agents from taking a local resident who was observing ICE enforcement actions into custody. It is believed to the first time local police in...
www.mprnews.org
January 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM
American policing is rife with abuse and needs reform.
Also, it is a mistake to paint local police and a lawless ICE with the same brush -- driving a wedge between the two is an urgent priority for the US democracy movement.
There is room in the democracy coalition for all of us.
Also, it is a mistake to paint local police and a lawless ICE with the same brush -- driving a wedge between the two is an urgent priority for the US democracy movement.
There is room in the democracy coalition for all of us.
Am now convinced that the red color scheme is intended to depict how your steak would be cooked if you just left it to roast on a sidewalk outside
ENDLESS HELL IN AUSTRALIA
36C AT NIGHT 49C IN THE DAY
Crazy MINIMUM 35.9C Arkaroola
4th hottest night in Southern Hemisphere history
Another 49C+ day in New South Wales
RECORDS
all time
49.1 Fawlers Gap
49.0 Smithville
48.9 White Cliffs
Monthly
48.4 Ivanhoe
46.0 Forbes
36C AT NIGHT 49C IN THE DAY
Crazy MINIMUM 35.9C Arkaroola
4th hottest night in Southern Hemisphere history
Another 49C+ day in New South Wales
RECORDS
all time
49.1 Fawlers Gap
49.0 Smithville
48.9 White Cliffs
Monthly
48.4 Ivanhoe
46.0 Forbes
January 31, 2026 at 3:12 PM
Am now convinced that the red color scheme is intended to depict how your steak would be cooked if you just left it to roast on a sidewalk outside
Warnock‘s natural speaking register — his straightforward appeal to moral conviction — is where Democratic leadership has needed to be since the Trump admin began.
“To hell with politics: I simply will not be a party to evil“ is good politics!
“To hell with politics: I simply will not be a party to evil“ is good politics!
Warnock: "You can't ask me to be an accomplice to the killing of Alex Pretti and Renee Good. It's to make a butchery of my conscience."
January 28, 2026 at 6:04 PM
Warnock‘s natural speaking register — his straightforward appeal to moral conviction — is where Democratic leadership has needed to be since the Trump admin began.
“To hell with politics: I simply will not be a party to evil“ is good politics!
“To hell with politics: I simply will not be a party to evil“ is good politics!
Civil resistance literature emphasizes the importance of security force "defections" to movement success.
I doubt that we'll see ICE members resigning in outrage. But I will not be at all surprised to see ICE struggling with both recruitment and retention this year.
I doubt that we'll see ICE members resigning in outrage. But I will not be at all surprised to see ICE struggling with both recruitment and retention this year.
Morale plummeting among ICE agents over long hours, quotas and public hatred: reports
Morale plummeting among ICE agents over long hours, quotas and public hatred: reports
Morale plummeting among ICE agents over long hours, quotas and public hatred: reports
www.independent.co.uk
January 26, 2026 at 6:51 PM
Civil resistance literature emphasizes the importance of security force "defections" to movement success.
I doubt that we'll see ICE members resigning in outrage. But I will not be at all surprised to see ICE struggling with both recruitment and retention this year.
I doubt that we'll see ICE members resigning in outrage. But I will not be at all surprised to see ICE struggling with both recruitment and retention this year.
As a democracy movement scholar, the Minneapolis ICE resistance is one of the most inspiring things I've witnessed in US politics.
These people are the very best of us, and the vision of American community that they embody is far more powerful and enduring than anything the nativists could offer.
These people are the very best of us, and the vision of American community that they embody is far more powerful and enduring than anything the nativists could offer.
‘Enough Is Enough’: Hundreds of Minnesota Businesses Take Stand Against ICE
www.nytimes.com
January 23, 2026 at 2:49 PM
As a democracy movement scholar, the Minneapolis ICE resistance is one of the most inspiring things I've witnessed in US politics.
These people are the very best of us, and the vision of American community that they embody is far more powerful and enduring than anything the nativists could offer.
These people are the very best of us, and the vision of American community that they embody is far more powerful and enduring than anything the nativists could offer.
Reposted by Matthew Cebul
Iranian official says verified deaths in Iran protests reaches at least 5,000 reut.rs/3ZiPI21
Iranian official says verified deaths in Iran protests reaches at least 5,000
An Iranian official in the region said on Sunday the authorities had verified at least 5,000 people had been killed in protests in Iran, including about 500 security personnel, blaming "terrorists and armed rioters" for killing "innocent Iranians".
reut.rs
January 18, 2026 at 9:30 AM
Iranian official says verified deaths in Iran protests reaches at least 5,000 reut.rs/3ZiPI21
These body count estimates are all highly uncertain, given the internet + media blackout, but even half this would be staggering. It's been two weeks!
January 13, 2026 at 8:51 PM
These body count estimates are all highly uncertain, given the internet + media blackout, but even half this would be staggering. It's been two weeks!
Kicking off 2026 writing with @chenoweth.bsky.social on global Gen-Z protests.
Young people do *not* like corruption, and Gen-Z protests are destabilizing corrupt governments everywhere. Yet for several reasons, we should temper expectations for durable democratic reforms to emerge in their wake.
Young people do *not* like corruption, and Gen-Z protests are destabilizing corrupt governments everywhere. Yet for several reasons, we should temper expectations for durable democratic reforms to emerge in their wake.
Young people from Peru to Madagascar to Nepal — furious with political elites reaping the spoils of privilege and corruption — are rising up to demand change, write Erica Chenoweth and @matthewcebul.bsky.social. Read "Why Gen-Z Is Rising" in our new January issue!
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...
January 2, 2026 at 4:19 PM
Kicking off 2026 writing with @chenoweth.bsky.social on global Gen-Z protests.
Young people do *not* like corruption, and Gen-Z protests are destabilizing corrupt governments everywhere. Yet for several reasons, we should temper expectations for durable democratic reforms to emerge in their wake.
Young people do *not* like corruption, and Gen-Z protests are destabilizing corrupt governments everywhere. Yet for several reasons, we should temper expectations for durable democratic reforms to emerge in their wake.
Diabolical jigsaw puzzle holiday challenge complete! Suck it, family, get stuffed for another year
December 29, 2025 at 5:22 PM
Diabolical jigsaw puzzle holiday challenge complete! Suck it, family, get stuffed for another year
Wow
First Combat Use of Underwater Kamikaze Drones: Russian Kilo class Submarine Disabled in Novorossiysk
The Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) has carried out a special operation in the port of Novorossiysk, marking the first-ever combat use of underwater kamikaze drones.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) has carried out a special operation in the port of Novorossiysk, marking the first-ever combat use of underwater kamikaze drones.
December 15, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Wow
Reposted by Matthew Cebul
PhD opportunity at the University of Oxford. The Morelli scholarship funds a doctoral student to work with me on on democratic backsliding, strategies of democratic defense and regeneration, or the rise of illiberalism. Deadline Jan 9. More information at users.ox.ac.uk/~ssfc0073/
December 9, 2025 at 6:29 PM
PhD opportunity at the University of Oxford. The Morelli scholarship funds a doctoral student to work with me on on democratic backsliding, strategies of democratic defense and regeneration, or the rise of illiberalism. Deadline Jan 9. More information at users.ox.ac.uk/~ssfc0073/
Great piece. Two comments:
1) Low Gen-Z participation in US protests is a stark departure from the global trend. Gen-Z is mobilizing for anti-corruption protests all over the place. Why not here?
IMO, Brendan's right about Dem weakness. Gerontocratic Dems just aren't authentic on anti-corruption.
1) Low Gen-Z participation in US protests is a stark departure from the global trend. Gen-Z is mobilizing for anti-corruption protests all over the place. Why not here?
IMO, Brendan's right about Dem weakness. Gerontocratic Dems just aren't authentic on anti-corruption.
My @nytimes.com op-ed: The Boomers Are Protesting Trump. Where Is Gen Z? www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/o... (gift link)
The key point: "The absence of young people from conventional protests is both a problem and a warning."
The key point: "The absence of young people from conventional protests is both a problem and a warning."
Opinion | The Boomers Are Protesting Trump. Where Is Gen Z?
www.nytimes.com
November 25, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Great piece. Two comments:
1) Low Gen-Z participation in US protests is a stark departure from the global trend. Gen-Z is mobilizing for anti-corruption protests all over the place. Why not here?
IMO, Brendan's right about Dem weakness. Gerontocratic Dems just aren't authentic on anti-corruption.
1) Low Gen-Z participation in US protests is a stark departure from the global trend. Gen-Z is mobilizing for anti-corruption protests all over the place. Why not here?
IMO, Brendan's right about Dem weakness. Gerontocratic Dems just aren't authentic on anti-corruption.