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Matthew Cebul

@matthewcebul.bsky.social

2K followers 780 following 210 posts

Political scientist studying civil resistance, democratic erosion, and US foreign policy in MENA. Lead Research Fellow at HKS Nonviolent Action Lab; formerly USIP. Manservant to Korra the cat. Lives for Alcaraz highlights, epic fantasy, and "draw a card."

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Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · Jul 23

Today, I wrote for @wpr.bsky.social on Andor and its lessons for nonviolent resistance.

Andor is truly a masterpiece, and my writing can't do it justice. Still, I hope you find as much inspiration in the show (and this commentary) as I did!

‘Andor’ Can Teach Us a Lot About Nonviolent Resistance, Too

Andor is quickly becoming canon for experts on insurgencies and armed rebellions. But it has a lot to say about nonviolent civil resistance, too.

www.worldpoliticsreview.com

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Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 13h

*Reed, dammit

Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 13h

Pritzker calls Trump demented on the teevee, so he immediately runs to Walter Read screaming PERSON WOMAN MAN CAMERA TV at everyone in sight

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 13h

Trump: "I also did a cognitive exam. Which is always very risky because if I didn't do well, you'd be the first to be blaring it and I had a perfect score. And one of the doctors said he's almost never seen a perfect score. I had a perfect score. That made me well good ... not the easiest test."

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Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 17h

These shit heels act like invincible tyrants, but the truth is that Trump is a petty personalist ruler and thus the only regime official that matters.

Everyone else is expendable, and they all know it.

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Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 17h

Greene is doing something that Dems should want to emulate: intentionally pitting Trump against his most vile subordinates.

Example: Trump wants a budget deal? We'd love to, but we can't trust that you'll keep your word with Vought and Miller driving the bus. Fire them.

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 18h

Marjorie Taylor Greene on polls showing Republicans are getting blamed for the shutdown: "I'm not putting the blame on the president. I'm actually putting the the blame on the Speaker and Leader Thune in the Senate. This should not be happening ... we control the House & Senate & have the WH."

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Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 19h

If I have learned one thing from GOP politics over the past decade, it is that saying the same thing a million times is an effective messaging strategy -- and you have the added bonus of being right on the merits.

Reposted by Matthew Cebul

Ryan Enos @ryanenos.bsky.social · 22h

Harvard (and all universities) must take a stand against Trump's extorionary "compact". Enos and Levitsky.
www.thecrimson.com/article/2025...

Harvard Must Take a Stand Against Trump’s Compact | Opinion | The Harvard Crimson

Harvard, rather than quietly pursuing its own appeasement strategy, should lead the way to preserve academic freedom and democracy.

www.thecrimson.com

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Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 19h

You're doing great work, Ryan. Keep hammering at this.

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Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 1d

Dem Governors realized early on what many Congressional Dems *still* don't get:

We cannot beat fascism by waiting it out. We need to fight every single day between now and Jan 2029. We cling to every inch of ground, concede nothing without struggle, and force the public to see this for what it is.

Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 1d

JB Pritzker's forceful, defiant response to Trump's threat to jail him confirms the points I tried to make in the piece and thread below about the role of conflict and attention in the public battle over Trump's authoritarian takeover:

Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 2d

There's only one viable response to SCOTUS corruption: relentless reform.

The way to stop GOP elites from shredding democratic norms is to explicitly demonstrate that they lose more than they gain from the act. "You dug your grave, now you're going to lie in it" is the attitude I want to see.

Brian Beutler @brianbeutler.bsky.social · 2d

Any Project 2029-style rebuilding project that tables confrontation with the Supreme Court will doom itself. www.offmessage.net/p/the-suprem...

The Supreme Court's Dastardly Plan Makes Court Reform Obligatory

If Democrats can't avoid the trap Republican justices are setting, we'll never recover from the Trump fiasco.

www.offmessage.net

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Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 2d

Somebody's getting desperate

FinTwitter @fintwitter.bsky.social · 2d

US House Speaker Johnson: Some legal analysts don't believe in shutdown backpay.

Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 2d

"Economy" and "corruption" are screaming red warning lights. Corruption especially should be a crippling vulnerability for Republicans, but Democrats are squandering it by refusing to come out swinging.

Voters want to hear that Dems will punish corrupt elites. Instead, Dems project helplessness.

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias.bsky.social · 2d

It's great that Trump's approval on stuff like immigration and crime is now underwater, but I also see a lot of over-optimism about this stuff that doesn't take the comparative polling into account.

Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 4d

A+ data visualization. Obviously confounded by education, but still, it's hard to deny that Democrats' refusal to seriously confront crony capitalism has eroded their coalition.

Time for Dems to tell wealthy donors to shut up and pay their goddamned taxes.

Thomas J Wood @thomasjwood.bsky.social · 7d

The last time I posted the income relationship to presidential vote among White respondents to the @electionstudies.bsky.social ANES, people asked for additional estimates among all voters.

Updated estimates here:

Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 5d

One reason why left economic populism is a good answer for Dems is that it divides the average moderate/conservative voter, to whom we really do need to appeal (no matter how mad you are about it), from corrupt and contemptible GOP elites, who deserve nothing but scorn.

Will Stancil @whstancil.bsky.social · 5d

What I can’t get over is just how interpersonally unpleasant this is. Think about good leaders in history, no matter who you think that is - would any of them go to a minority critic and tell them to “express a little gratitude” with a sneer? Of course not, because it makes your skin crawl

Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 6d

ICE: *drags an entire apartment building out for arrest without anything remotely resembling a warrant*

Senate Dems: "Yeah, boy, I dunno, the 4th amendment isn't a hot polling issue right now"

🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️

Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 6d

I asked Chris Murphy if he privately talks to Dem colleagues about why they don't sound the alarm loudly. His answers were depressing. Dems tell him they don't want to be "alarmist" or that "democracy" didn't work in 2024, so they want to stick to health care. 5/

newrepublic.com/article/2013...

Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 6d

Elected Dems want to win in 2026 and then decide how to resist Trumpism from there. But Murphy is right. Dems can't wait until 2027. They need to fight now.

Also: Dems hiding behind the idea that voters don't care about Trump's corrupt tyranny are the most pathetic losers alive.

Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 6d

Everyone should listen to Chris Murphy's extraordinary warning about Trump on our pod. First, he says the logic must be that the more lawless he gets, the stiffer the resistance.

"If I give in and consent to these kinds of tactics then it just normalizes it all." 1/

newrepublic.com/article/2013...

Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 7d

In a nutshell: "the filibuster is killing American democracy."

Why on Earth would Americans believe in government when Dems have meekly permitted an extremist GOP to obstruct everything they promise to achieve while in office?

Nuke the filibuster, pass popular laws, brag about it.

The New York Times @nytimes.com · 7d

Americans have less faith in the ability of the country’s political system to solve problems than they had five years ago, with a large majority now believing that the U.S. is incapable of overcoming its deep divisions, according to a poll by The New York Times and Siena University. nyti.ms/476StrS

A line graph titled "Most Americans Think the Country's Divisions Cannot Be Overcome, Poll Says." It shows 64% of respondents saying that America's political system is too politically divided to solve the nation's problems, and 33% saying the system can still address the nation's problems.

Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 7d

This is exactly how Democrats should frame it. "If the GOP wants to pass this monstrous spending bill they can go right ahead, but we absolutely refuse to be a part of it until Trump and the GOP agree to some basic human decency."

Ted Lieu @tedlieu.bsky.social · 7d

Day 2 of the Republican shutdown. Your regular reminders:

1. GOP controls government. They control what bills get voted on and the vote thresholds for each bill. Senate GOP can pass their bad funding bill today if they felt like it.

2. Dems are fighting to lower costs and save healthcare.

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Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 7d

Democrats need to recognize that Trump is a weak and unpopular president with a reputation for reckless thuggery. He obviously owns this.

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur.bsky.social · 7d

New Washington Post poll on who voters blame for the government shutdown:

Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 8d

My genuine belief is that behavior like this will backfire precisely because it will force even the most spineless Democrats to admit that US democratic institutions simply cannot survive without major institutional reform.

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · 8d

This is a good argument for abolishing the Department of Homeland Security and replacing it with a number of smaller, independent agencies; or another umbrella organization without such a fascistic name.

Tom Jawetz @tomjawetz.bsky.social · 8d

How can we defend our culture against the white supremacists that have infiltrated our government?

Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 8d

This is outstanding.

The correct number of "core principles" that Democrats should be sacrificing to gain electoral votes is zero.

Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 9d

At least Jeb Bush did, ultimately, receive applause in the end #PleaseClap

Nick (derogatory) ✨ @slothropsmap.bsky.social · 9d

At 0:12 you can see Hegseth confront the reality that no one in the room respects him. Hits him like a meteor.

The Tennessee Holler @thetnholler.bsky.social · 9d

And after 40 minutes of cringe-Thunderous applause from the generals!

Just kidding. Total silence. 👀 🦗 🦗

Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 9d

I doubt that this juvenile condescension will lead some of the most patriotic Americans alive to abandon public service.

I rather think they'll simply ignore this pathetic display and go back to representing this country as best they can.

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 9d

Hegseth: "If the words I'm speaking today are making your heart sink, they you should do the honorable thing and resign."

Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 10d

The Democratic Party desperately needs to make amends with its grassroots base, and I'm not saying that throwing money at the problem will make it all better -- but it's a hell of a lot more persuasive than Jeffries screaming "ITS A DISTRACTION" while the republic implodes around him

Julie Tsirkin @newsjul.bsky.social · 10d

scoop: Sen Chris Murphy is donating 100k from his political fund to Indivisible — the latest in a series of donations he says total ~1m to progressive organizing groups taking on the Trump admin

Murphy said fellow Dems should take notes to “meet the moment”

www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...

Sen. Chris Murphy sends funds to anti-Trump organizing groups

The Connecticut Democrat has distributed nearly $1 million this year to groups organizing against the Trump administration.

www.nbcnews.com

Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 10d

The Dem party is well-served by relentless social movement pressure for anti-corruption reform.

The way to regain popular trust *and* to hurt the GOP is to credibly impose a zero tolerance anti-corruption policy. Dems like Jeffries can either get on board, or be mercilessly thrown under the bus.

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 10d

Poll after poll shows corruption is THE issue voters care about. And Jeffries goes out of his way to praise Adams, whose public corruption charges were dropped after Trump’s DOJ unceremoniously shut the case down?

Democrats have the winning hand right in front of them. Wild that they won’t play it.

statement titled “Leader Jeffries Statement on Mayor Eric L. Adams.” It says Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries thanked Adams for decades of service as an NYPD officer, state senator, Brooklyn Borough President, and New York City’s 110th mayor. The statement highlights achievements under Adams, including reduced violent crime, more affordable housing, and recovery from COVID-19. Jeffries acknowledges ongoing challenges like the high cost of living but says meaningful progress was made. He thanks Adams for his service and says that in the coming days his focus will shift to Republican healthcare and government funding issues, and that he will comment on the remaining mayoral candidates before early voting begins.

Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 13d

Looks like it was a push-up contest after all bsky.app/profile/grah...

Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 14d

Fascist loyalty oaths or a push-up contest, it's a coin toss really

The New York Times @nytimes.com · 14d

Breaking News: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is summoning U.S. generals worldwide for a meeting without saying why, causing anxiety in the military’s top ranks. The large number of generals in attendance, including those working active conflict zones, is without recent precedent, officials said.