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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis)

@avishaybsg.bsky.social

9.7K followers 2.2K following 10K posts

Normative Theory of Civ-Mil especially under democratic backsliding | Liberalism Rekindled Postdoctoral Fellow @Hebrew U | Ruderman Scholar in Residence and Senior Researcher at the INSS | Napper extraordinaire | Kartofellophile

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · May 9

Things about politics I’ve come to believe strongly:

1. Less bad is better than more bad
2. Nostalgia is generally incorrect. Things weren’t better
3. Still, things can get much worse
4. Democracy is an outlier in human political history
5. Optimism is rooted in agency, not positive predictions

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Reposted by Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis)

Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social · 2h

There's every reason in the world to be wary of what's coming next, but we can still be happy for the children of Gaza and the hostages' families.

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 4h

Thanks

Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 4h

Source?

Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 4h

I didn’t post that there’s a ceasefire last night

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 4h

The neighbors who’ve been protesting outside Ron Dermer’s home for months, hanging the current number of hostages on the fence of this basketball court near his home (and mine), changed the sign last night. It now reads: “and your children shall return to their border” (Jeremiah 31:16)

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 4h

Other than in defense of forces, should have. IDF definitely withdrawing to yellow area in this @aljazeera.com map

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 5h

Ceasefire in effect. Not impossible that this is the end of the Gaza war.

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 18h

If ever there was a moment for Schmuck though...

Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 18h

מה שקראת זה מה שכתוב

Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 18h

(((hmmmm)))

Acyn @acyn.bsky.social · 18h

RFK JR: There are many other confirmations -- there are two studies that show children who are circumcised early have double the rate of autism. It’s highly likely because they are given Tylenol

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 19h

We miss you

Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 20h

Who among us doesn't have a brain worm waiting to turn us into a crank

Reposted by Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis)

The Times of Israel @timesofisrael.com · 1d

Smotrich says he will oppose hostage deal, as his party weighs quitting the government https://www.timesofisrael.com/smotrich-says-he-will-oppose-hostage-deal-as-his-party-weighs-quitting-the-government/

Smotrich says he will oppose hostage deal, as his party weighs quitting the government

Religious Zionism source says decision hasn't been made yet; Ben Gvir mum on deal after earlier threat to bolt if Hamas 'remains in existence'; opposition has promised 'safety net'

www.timesofisrael.com

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 1d

Because Palestinians , including murderers will be released and because the war will end without full Israeli control of Gaza, annexation and forced emigration

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 1d

Palpable relief and happiness in Israel (outside far right circles) over the prospect of hostage release

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 1d

Israeli sources have insisted Barghouthi, Saadat, and elSeid will not be released

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 1d

They started this on the grill for their support of Hamas. They’re ending it with a US defense pact, having cemented their role as mediator and closer of both Gaza and Iran wars

Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 1d

And the real winner is Qatar

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 1d

Waking up to a morning of hope.

Israeli cabinet to approve deal today which will mark the beginning of a ceasefire. 24hrs later IDF will partially withdraw and 48-72hrs live hostages released, maybe most of the dead too. Then talks over next stages and Trump visit here.

A time to build.

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Reposted by Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis)

David Burbach 🌹 @dburbach.bsky.social · 1d

Anyway, I would say I'm not sure how the comms and notifications usually happen, except there's really no "usually" to look at for these deployments since they are more or less without precedent. Hardly the biggest issue but since I try to understand this sort of thing, I'm curious. 5/5

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 1d

Or, it seems maybe even sooner than the weekend

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 1d

Trump now says he may travel to the Middle East over the weekend which means he has decided that he thinks a deal is likely to be concluded in the next few days

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 1d

The excellent @shaiagmon.bsky.social

Shai Agmon @shaiagmon.bsky.social · 1d

Just spoke to @euronews.com about the Trump deal to end the Gaza war. Here are the main points I made 🧵:

1. Trump should have formally brought in the Palestinian Authority as part of both the negotiations and the implementation.

>>>

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 1d

It was so incredibly moving. I was sorry they didn’t incorporate Arabic like last year but even so.

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Reposted by Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis)

Rima I Anabtawi @rimaanabtawi.bsky.social · 1d

“Israeli and foreign sources are telling me in the last hour: "Optimistic about the chances of reaching a deal, entering the critical hours"” - Diplomatic Correspondent Amichai Stein is, now, reporting

Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 1d

Media sources (and people I’m talking to) are optimistic that agreement on first stage of Gaza deal (centered on hostage release) may be imminent. By the end of the week if not tonight. It can still collapse but the tone is the most positive I’ve heard in a long time. Possibly at all.

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