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Bryan Knowles

@brykno.bsky.social

3K followers 88 following 1.9K posts

Contributing Writer, FTN/DVOA https://ko-fi.com/bryanknowles https://ftnfantasy.com/contributor/bryanknowles

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Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 14h

Jaxson Dart was exciting last night, but Emeka Egbuka remains your frontrunner for offensive rookie of the year.

Let's take a look at the whole class and see how they're doing.

ftnfantasy.com/nfl/emeka-eg...

Emeka Egbuka Is Your Offensive Rookie of the Year Leader

Can anyone beat Emeka Egbuka for Offensive Player of the Year? Bryan Knowles looks at the candidates.

Reposted by Bryan Knowles

Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 16h

New @brykno.bsky.social goes into the candidates for Offensive Rookie of the Year with the help of FTN StatsHub.

ftnfantasy.com/nfl/emeka-eg...

Emeka Egbuka is Your Offensive Rookie of the Year Leader

Can anyone beat Emeka Egbuka for Offensive Player of the Year? Bryan Knowles looks at the candidates.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 1d

Because it was asked in the DVOA Discord chat, a list of teams that have lost to the Giants on Thursdays:

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 1d

The Eagles loss means the 49ers and the Buccaneers control their own fates for the #1 seed in the NFC now.

The two worst 4-1 teams (by DVOA) are the two best 4-1 teams, naturally.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 1d

Step one of my "crazy, longshot Giants playoff scenario" was upsetting the Eagles tonight...

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 2d

The New York Giants actually have lower odds than the Jets in FTN's playoff sims at just 1.1% -- the difference between the two conferences and a much harder schedule will do that. Hey, Jaxson Dart is kinda fun, though!

Let's go ahead and get THEM into the postseason too, why not.

A hypothetical scenario showing the New York Giants getting into the playoffs at 9-8.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 1d

Between the end of the Phillies game and Hurts not knowing what down it was, all Sports Knowledge left the heads of Philadelphia athletes for about five minutes there.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 1d

Both teams need to burn the tape of that final drive.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 1d

What in the blue hell was that, Brian Daboll? Saved the Eagles five yards AND time.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 1d

The quarterback sneak existed before the tush push, Al and Kirk.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 1d

Al Michaels with the bold take that a good Giants quarterback would be popular in New York.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 1d

OK, four tush pushes in a row IS getting a bit excessive.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 1d

Well, THAT was a nifty touchdown.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 1d

Well, if you spot the Giants 10 points, I like their odds much better.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 1d

If I've learned anything from covering the NFL, it's that no one likes complaining about the Philadelphia Eagles more than Philadelphia Eagle fans.

With that being said I expect a lot of grousing about Patullo in an Eagles win over the Giants tonight over in the DVOA Discord.

discord.gg/Rw47FKesa2

Join the DVOA Diaspora Discord Server!

A home away from home for fans of DVOA, Walkthrough, Scrambling, and the rest of the ex-Football Outsiders content. | 1016 members

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 1d

Harlon Hill working with a young George Blanda, which feels like a contradiction in terms.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 1d

Most receiving yards, Weeks 1-5, for a rookie. Not bad company for Emeka Egbuka.

Reposted by Bryan Knowles

Bill Barnwell @billbarnwell.com · 1d

Found a fun Jets stat for the podcast:

Across their final 17 games with Robert Saleh, the Jets had the league's best defense by points per drive and EPA per play.

In their subsequent 17 games without Saleh, the Jets have had the league's worst defense by the same metrics.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 2d

Nope, I don't get Cleveland's plan.

Ian Rapoport @rapsheet.bsky.social · 2d

Sources: The Jaguars and Browns are making a trade.

It's CB Tyson Campbell to Cleveland for Greg Newsome II, who lands in Jax, per me and @tompelissero.bsky.social

Another day, another Cleveland trade.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 2d

So, uh, who takes the UNC job now?

Reposted by Bryan Knowles

Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 2d

We still have the Chiefs making the playoffs in 58% of our simulations if they lose to the Lions Sunday night, dropping to 2-4.

They win the division 29% of the time after a loss to the Lions.

ftnfantasy.com/dvoa-playoff...

NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LX

NFL playoff picture odds to win Super Bowl LIX based on DVOA and 25,000 weekly simulations.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 2d

Well, maybe a couple extra upsets over the Cowboys or Packers would help, too. But still, a playoff berth is a playoff berth.

The full scenario:
v2.playoffpredictors.com/football/nfl...

Playoff Predictors

Playoff Predictors is a suite of playoff machines that allows you to pick every game of the season (up to the championship), and will correctly rank teams according to the league's rules. Supports the...

v2.playoffpredictors.com

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 2d

I suspect in this scenario the rest of the conference would take care of itself. The advantage of playing a hard schedule is that NYG can do their own work against teams like PHI/DAL. In this particular scenario, the Giants get in via the common games tiebreaker over Philly; that Chargers win helps!

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 2d

The Giants' future schedule has an average DVOA of 5.9% compared to -11.1% for the Jets, so it's harder to find even theoretical wins for them. In this particular scenario, I have them split with the Eagles, and lose to DEN/DET/NE, trying to pick off more bottom feeders.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 2d

At least I can imagine the world in which the Giants suddenly start playing better -- putting in a first-round quarterback can have an immediate impact. Unlike the Jets, they can't get in at 4-13 (5-12 minimum), and they've got to get to 10-7 to have better than a 50/50 chance. The NFC is rough.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 2d

The New York Giants actually have lower odds than the Jets in FTN's playoff sims at just 1.1% -- the difference between the two conferences and a much harder schedule will do that. Hey, Jaxson Dart is kinda fun, though!

Let's go ahead and get THEM into the postseason too, why not.

A hypothetical scenario showing the New York Giants getting into the playoffs at 9-8.