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Reposted by Elisabeth Bayer

Matthew Terrill @matthewterrill.bsky.social · 3h

I was already a hard AI-skeptic but this cements my long suspicion that there is no feasible path to anything close to return on invested capital for these data centers. Tech would need 15 to 25 times current AI revenues within the next 2-3 years just to break even. Not financially viable.

"I clearly hit a nerve in the industry, when judging by the number of individuals who reached out to chat," he wrote in an followup blog post. "In total, l've spoken with over two-dozen rather senior people in the datacenter universe, and there was an interesting and overriding theme to our conversations: no one understands how the financial math is supposed to work. They are as baffled as I am, and they do this for a living."
Kupperman's original skepticism was built on a guess that the components in an average Al data center would take ten years to depreciate, requiring costly replacements. That was bad enough: "I don't see how there can ever be any return on investment given the current math," he wrote at the time.
But ten years, he now understands, is way too generous.
" had previously assumed a 10-year depreciation curve, which I now recognize as quite unrealistic based upon the speed with which Al datacenter technology is advancing," Kupperman wrote. "Based on my conversations over the past month, the physical data centers last for three to ten years, at most."
In his previous analysis, Kupperman assumed it would take the tech industry $160 billion of revenue to break even on data center spending in 2025 alone. And that's assuming an incredibly generous 25 percent gross margin - not to mention the fact that the industry's actual Al revenue is closer to $20 billion annually, as the investment manager noted in his previous blog.

"In reality, the industry probably needs a revenue range that is closer to the $320 billion to $480 billion range, just to break even on the capex to be spent this year," Kupperman posited in his updated essay. "No wonder my new contacts in the industry shoulder a heavy burden - heavier than I could ever imagine. They know the truth."
Kupperman called that gulf between tech industry spending and actual revenue in 2025 "astonishing."
However, it doesn't even begin to scratch the surface. For example, how does it all shake out when we account for 2026, when hundreds of new data centers are expected to pop up?
"Adding the two years together, and using the math from my prior post, you'd need approximately $1 trillion in revenue to hit break even, and many trillions more to earn an acceptable return on this spend," he writes.
"If the economics don't work, doing it at massive scale doesn't make the economics work any better
- it just takes an industry crisis and makes it into a national economic crisis," he concludes.
Overall, the pessimists broadly agree: it's no longer a matter of if Al is massively overhyped, but when the whole thing comes crashing down.
More on Al hype: Data Shows That Al Use Is Now Declining at Large Companies

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Reposted by Elisabeth Bayer

Brooke Harrington @ebharrington.bsky.social · 10h

What Thiel is saying about tax havens = what Altman is saying about copyright:

"I can't be rich unless you let me steal from you."

This is how Broligarchs differ from oligarchs of yore: the latter tried to hide their thievery; the Broligarchs trumpet their entitlement to steal as a natural right.

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Reposted by Elisabeth Bayer

jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 5h

an incontestable fact of the second trump administration is it is actively trying to sicken and kill as many americans as it can

Lena Sun @lenasun.bsky.social · 8h

NEW: @CDCgov hit hard by massive firings that several staff describe to me as a “bloodbath.”
Among those RIFd:
—leadership of the center for immunization and respiratory diseases;
—leadership of global health center
—leadership of the measles outbreak response; 1/4

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Dan McCrum @mccrum.bsky.social · 6h

This isn’t funny. Judges only speak to the press when they’re in extreme distress

Leah Litman @leahlitman.bsky.social · 10h

More judges speak to the press (the NYT) about what a disaster the Supreme Court (specifically the shadow docket) has been - “incredibly demoralizing & troubling”; a “judicial crisis”; a “slap in the face to district courts.” www.nytimes.com/2025/10/11/u...

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darth™️ @darthbluesky.bsky.social · 16h

maybe some of these guys just *like* extra innings

it is just an observation if i loved doing something i would also not want it to end

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Reposted by Elisabeth Bayer

Aaron Fritschner @fritschner.bsky.social · 1d

A few minutes ago in the House:

- Speaker Mike Johnson officially cancels votes next week, extending the House recess through a fourth week

- House Republicans block Democrats from passing a bill to pay the troops during the shutdown, ensuring they will miss paychecks next week

House Press Gallery: During today's pro forma session, the Clerk read a message from the Speaker designating Tuesday, October 14 through Sunday, October 19 as a district work period.

Punchbowl's Briana Reilly: House gaveled in and out of its pro forma just now w/o recognizing Rep Elfreth, who was seeking to UC a mil pay bill from Rep Sykes.

Elfreth told reporters after that House Dems stand “ready and willing to take” up standalone legislation to pay troops.

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Micah @rincewind.run · 1d

this is a recipe for a four year government shutdown

you simply cannot make deals with people who are telling you up front they are going to break those deals and claw back everything you won in them

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 1d

Q: Rescission are something Dems have said is a reason for a lack of trust. What rescissions are you discussing?

JOHNSON: We have more than $37t in debt. We're doing everything we can to get us back to sound fiscal responsibility. What does that include? A rescission package is part of our process

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ceej @ceej.online · 1d

damn. hoping it at least signifies something

William Shakespeare @shakespeare.lol · 1d

It is a tale
Told by an idiot

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Elisabeth Bayer @ejbayer.bsky.social · 1d

the giant frog religionnews.com/2024/01/09/w...

Why I am obsessed with an ancient story about giant frogs

(RNS) — Yes, they are a metaphor for the challenges of our time.

religionnews.com

Elisabeth Bayer @ejbayer.bsky.social · 1d

Tzfardeah. Arov.

The Oregonian @oregonian.com · 1d

Things are happening at Portland's ICE facility tonight.

Read more of our protest coverage here: www.oregonlive.com/crime/2025/1...

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Reposted by Elisabeth Bayer

Emmy™️ @babkastreisand.bsky.social · 1d

We’ll always have our Phanatic mocking Tommy Lasorda tho 😔 Go Phils

Emmy™️ @babkastreisand.bsky.social · 25d

Good evening. Go Phils.

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Reposted by Elisabeth Bayer

Adam Serwer @adamserwer.bsky.social · 1d

www.wweek.com/culture/2025...

Can you put into words what that purpose is? You and the frog have really become icons of this protest.

There’s been a nice overall whimsy that has shown up. The frog is amazing. We had a bunch of other inflatable people here last night, too. I saw people playing Twister the other day.

What they rely on is fear. So by coming out in an absurdist manner, it speaks to them, to some extent, that we’re actually not that afraid.

It also dismantles their narrative a little bit. When they try to describe this situation as “war-torn,” it becomes much harder to take them seriously when they have to post a video saying [U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security] Kristi Noem is up on the balcony staring over the Antifa Army and it’s, like, eight journalists and five protesters and one of them is in a chicken suit.

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Elisabeth Bayer @ejbayer.bsky.social · 1d

I like a Halloween costume that comes with seating.

Getty @gettymuseum.bsky.social · 1d

Cat sculpture that reads:
Turquoise cat costume
Gold throne
Unnerving smile

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Reposted by Elisabeth Bayer

"spooky sukkot" daniel s. @self.agency · 2d

JVP and IfNotNow, two Jewish groups principally committed to nonviolence, are both on the government’s list of left-wing violent extremist groups

Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 2d

Admin cracking down on Soros, Indivisible, ActBlue, & Jewish peace groups is incredible projection in light of federal contractor El*n M*sk spending more on politics in 2024 than anybody in human history and all the big money corruption of 2025

www.reuters.com/legal/govern...

www.reuters.com

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Reposted by Elisabeth Bayer

darth™️ @darthbluesky.bsky.social · 2d

"we are going to murder americans without due process"
~pam bondi, US attorney general

Prem Thakker ツ @premthakker.bsky.social · 3d

My gosh. After the US bombed multiple boats in the middle of the ocean, murdering people on grounds that they were allegedly "carrying drugs," the US Attorney General says "Just like we did with cartels, we're going to take the same approach, President Trump, with Antifa."

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Elisabeth Bayer @ejbayer.bsky.social · 2d

He really hates trees

Elisabeth Bayer @ejbayer.bsky.social · 2d

That’s horrible

Charles T. Downey @ionarts.bsky.social · 2d

Surprised by yet more changes being made (chopped down) at the Kennedy Center, this time on the lower terrace

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Reposted by Elisabeth Bayer

Joel S. @joelhs.bsky.social · 2d

There is zero possibility that a federal government campaign against circumcision, even if in theory it is applied neutrally, is not going to result in more Islamophobia and antisemitism.

Justin Baragona @justinbaragona.bsky.social · 2d

Besides linking Tylenol in pregnant women to autism, RFK Jr. now says circumcision is part of the reason why kids are autistic.

"Children who are circumcised early have double the rate of autism, and it's highly likely because they're given Tylenol. None of this is positive..."

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Reposted by Elisabeth Bayer

Dan Froomkin/Press Watch/Heads Up News @froomkin.bsky.social · 2d

Illinois judge blocks ICE from using force against peaceful protesters, clergy and journalists. Also requires visible ID. An overdue victory for the First Amendment.
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

storage.courtlistener.com

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Josh Gondelman @joshgondelman.bsky.social · 2d

Whenever anyone says how much of the U.S. economy is tied to AI right now, I'm like...damn, what if a single rich person had any idea other than "try to zero out labor costs through theft."

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Elisabeth Bayer @ejbayer.bsky.social · 2d

The president has been promising a plan to overhaul the ACA for literal years, people’s premiums are going up NOW.

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 2d

Thune: "The president would like to overhaul Obamacare and give people health insurance that is higher quality and more affordable."

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Elisabeth Bayer @ejbayer.bsky.social · 2d

This is my new favorite review of Godot.

Lux "Nightmare" Alptraum @luxalptraum.com · 2d

TFW you paid $1400 to see Beckett’s most famous work without knowing anything about it

One Star Review of Waiting for Godot on Broadway
I recently attended Waiting for Godot on Broadway and spent over $1,400 for two Row C seats (103 and 104). I'm a longtime admirer of Broadway productions and even hold a season pass for Shea's Performing Arts Theatre, so I came in with genuine enthusiasm and high expectations. Unfortunately, this show was unlike anything ! have ever experienced —and not in a good way.
What I encountered was not the artistry, music, or emotional storytelling I usually associate with Broadway, but instead what felt like an endless cycle of nonsensical conversation between characters who seemed trapped in their own madness. I tried-truly tried-to find meaning, symbolism, or even a thread of emotional resonance. I stayed through the first half hoping the second would offer clarity. But by intermission, it was clear: this was a waste of both time and money.
Keanu Reeves is an actor I respect greatly, but I cannot fathom why he would agree to participate in such a disjointed, inaccessible production. His talent was lost in a performance that defied reason rather than provoked insight.
To anyone considering attending: unless you are drawn to highly abstract, nearly incomprehensible theater, I strongly caution you against this show. For the average, educated, thoughtful theatergoer, it is far more frustrating than fulfilling. In my opinion, this was the single most disappointing Broadway experience I've ever had - an unfortunate waste of money and, more importantly, of time.

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Reposted by Elisabeth Bayer

Caitlin Kelly @caitlinkelly.bsky.social · 3d

“I'm optimistic that, you know, five years from now a majority of kids are going to be in a private school choice program.” www.propublica.org/article/educ...

These Activists Want to Dismantle Public Schools. Now They Run the Education Department.

Under Trump, the Department of Education has been bringing in activists hostile to public schools. It could mean a new era of private and religious schools boosted by tax dollars — and the end of publ...

www.propublica.org

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Elisabeth Bayer @ejbayer.bsky.social · 3d

I have never had to make another tab group because I refuse to close some tabs.

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Elisabeth Bayer @ejbayer.bsky.social · 3d

If it makes you feel more normal my niece agrees with you and thinks I’m a monster 🥳

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