Effectively Wild Stats
@ewstats.com
Keeping you up to date on stats about @ewpod.bsky.social, the podcast about stats. Managed by @chrishanel.com
(posts here don't represent ben, meg, fangraphs, or decoy the dog)
(posts here don't represent ben, meg, fangraphs, or decoy the dog)
The timing of this post is amazing
Maybe we can speak the Sabrina Carpenter/Yoshinobu Yamamoto fever dream coupling into existence.
Honestly he’s sassy enough for her and he has a job!
Honestly he’s sassy enough for her and he has a job!
No one:
Chase Utley:
Chase Utley:
November 24, 2025 at 9:36 PM
The timing of this post is amazing
ewstats.com has been updated the PPG results, and if you go to your personal ballot, you can now see directly how your predictions compared with the final averages!
EW Stats
ewstats.com
November 24, 2025 at 6:57 PM
ewstats.com has been updated the PPG results, and if you go to your personal ballot, you can now see directly how your predictions compared with the final averages!
At the risk of sending @benlindbergh.bsky.social into a fugue state, something I realized about the MLFAD:
1. Jeff's 2019 ballot finished with 44 more PA/TBF.
2. The 2019 MLFAD was the only edition with 11 rounds.
3. Jeff's 11th pick earned 69 points.
Do with this info as you wish.
1. Jeff's 2019 ballot finished with 44 more PA/TBF.
2. The 2019 MLFAD was the only edition with 11 rounds.
3. Jeff's 11th pick earned 69 points.
Do with this info as you wish.
November 24, 2025 at 5:53 PM
At the risk of sending @benlindbergh.bsky.social into a fugue state, something I realized about the MLFAD:
1. Jeff's 2019 ballot finished with 44 more PA/TBF.
2. The 2019 MLFAD was the only edition with 11 rounds.
3. Jeff's 11th pick earned 69 points.
Do with this info as you wish.
1. Jeff's 2019 ballot finished with 44 more PA/TBF.
2. The 2019 MLFAD was the only edition with 11 rounds.
3. Jeff's 11th pick earned 69 points.
Do with this info as you wish.
As promised during the results episode, here are the expected number of predictions to come true, based on if listener voting was accurate (along with the actual count):
2023: 15.19 (11)
2024: 15.1 (10)
2025: 13.63 (8)
2023: 15.19 (11)
2024: 15.1 (10)
2025: 13.63 (8)
November 23, 2025 at 4:42 PM
As promised during the results episode, here are the expected number of predictions to come true, based on if listener voting was accurate (along with the actual count):
2023: 15.19 (11)
2024: 15.1 (10)
2025: 13.63 (8)
2023: 15.19 (11)
2024: 15.1 (10)
2025: 13.63 (8)
It's been brought up a few times and it might have *some* effect, though last year Clemens called it a "skill issue" \s
We might make a change, but as I mentioned on the show, the fact that we get a satisfying range of percentages in relation to each other is the more important part.
We might make a change, but as I mentioned on the show, the fact that we get a satisfying range of percentages in relation to each other is the more important part.
Thanks for your work on this. Just finished listening to the episode. IIRC the listener selections started at 50% by default. I’m wondering if defaulting them to 0% instead would help push the % down since we know overall us listeners rank too high? If I’m wrong on the 50% default please ignore.
November 23, 2025 at 4:11 PM
It's been brought up a few times and it might have *some* effect, though last year Clemens called it a "skill issue" \s
We might make a change, but as I mentioned on the show, the fact that we get a satisfying range of percentages in relation to each other is the more important part.
We might make a change, but as I mentioned on the show, the fact that we get a satisfying range of percentages in relation to each other is the more important part.
Reposted by Effectively Wild Stats
Don’t thank Ben, he’ll respond with 4 monologues explaining why he deserves to be thanked
November 22, 2025 at 6:22 AM
Don’t thank Ben, he’ll respond with 4 monologues explaining why he deserves to be thanked
Reflecting on today's pod: I want to (again) thank @benlindbergh.bsky.social and @megrowler.fangraphs.com for letting me (and the EWStats team) play in their sandbox. I love this podcast and its community, and being trusted to steer the ship every so often is a privilege that will never get old.
November 22, 2025 at 3:04 AM
Reflecting on today's pod: I want to (again) thank @benlindbergh.bsky.social and @megrowler.fangraphs.com for letting me (and the EWStats team) play in their sandbox. I love this podcast and its community, and being trusted to steer the ship every so often is a privilege that will never get old.
Reposted by Effectively Wild Stats
listening to @chrishanel.com shout how the rockies are not the last "not normal" team when the angels exist already delivering returns
November 21, 2025 at 8:36 PM
listening to @chrishanel.com shout how the rockies are not the last "not normal" team when the angels exist already delivering returns
The new rule for next year:
1. Each player picks 1 prediction from each opponent (3 picks each, 12 total) to take the 'opposite' action, earning points if those predictions are false (and losing points if true)
2. Multiple players taking the same pick split the pot
1. Each player picks 1 prediction from each opponent (3 picks each, 12 total) to take the 'opposite' action, earning points if those predictions are false (and losing points if true)
2. Multiple players taking the same pick split the pot
November 21, 2025 at 6:05 PM
The new rule for next year:
1. Each player picks 1 prediction from each opponent (3 picks each, 12 total) to take the 'opposite' action, earning points if those predictions are false (and losing points if true)
2. Multiple players taking the same pick split the pot
1. Each player picks 1 prediction from each opponent (3 picks each, 12 total) to take the 'opposite' action, earning points if those predictions are false (and losing points if true)
2. Multiple players taking the same pick split the pot
Reposted by Effectively Wild Stats
The EWStats team puts a level of care and expertise into tracking our drafts and other absurdities that we candidly do not deserve. Our nerd shit is made better by their efforts!
November 21, 2025 at 2:55 PM
The EWStats team puts a level of care and expertise into tracking our drafts and other absurdities that we candidly do not deserve. Our nerd shit is made better by their efforts!
Effectively Wild Episode 2403: How Our Preseason Predictions Panned Out
blogs.fangraphs.com
November 21, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Remember at the start of the season when I had listeners submit their own BOLD predictions to be graded? Some of you ended up looking really smart! Let's give credit where credit is due...
November 21, 2025 at 4:48 AM
Remember at the start of the season when I had listeners submit their own BOLD predictions to be graded? Some of you ended up looking really smart! Let's give credit where credit is due...
PPG results show is in the can and I have very little voice left
Coincidence? You decide
Coincidence? You decide
November 20, 2025 at 11:52 PM
PPG results show is in the can and I have very little voice left
Coincidence? You decide
Coincidence? You decide
With the news about Grisham and Torres both taking the QO, @benlindbergh.bsky.social collects one correct prediction and one push, getting on the board with 53.975 points.
November 18, 2025 at 9:11 PM
With the news about Grisham and Torres both taking the QO, @benlindbergh.bsky.social collects one correct prediction and one push, getting on the board with 53.975 points.
I think we might have our first points in the Contract Over/Under Draft
November 18, 2025 at 8:59 PM
I think we might have our first points in the Contract Over/Under Draft
Feeling personally attacked that this news only comes out *now*
The family of the late San Diego Padres owner Peter Seidler is exploring the possibility of selling the franchise.
San Diego Padres could be up for sale as Seidler family considers options
The family of the late San Diego Padres owner Peter Seidler is exploring the possibility of selling the franchise.
bit.ly
November 14, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Feeling personally attacked that this news only comes out *now*
Congratulations to Benjamin Hammler for winning the listener portion of the 2025 Preseason Predictions Game!
Your final leaderboard:
Your final leaderboard:
November 14, 2025 at 1:21 AM
Congratulations to Benjamin Hammler for winning the listener portion of the 2025 Preseason Predictions Game!
Your final leaderboard:
Your final leaderboard:
With the conclusion of the MVP awards announcement, the 2025 Preseason Predictions Game is now CONCLUDED!
All remaining outstanding predictions are hereby FALSE.
Watch this space for the final listener scores, and tune in to the results episode next week!
All remaining outstanding predictions are hereby FALSE.
Watch this space for the final listener scores, and tune in to the results episode next week!
November 14, 2025 at 12:54 AM
With the conclusion of the MVP awards announcement, the 2025 Preseason Predictions Game is now CONCLUDED!
All remaining outstanding predictions are hereby FALSE.
Watch this space for the final listener scores, and tune in to the results episode next week!
All remaining outstanding predictions are hereby FALSE.
Watch this space for the final listener scores, and tune in to the results episode next week!
Ben and Meg have made their picks in the Contract Over/Under Draft!
Biggest burning question: Is Ben going to get burned by a Kyle Tucker mega-deferral contract? (And if not, would it really be a Contract Over/Under Draft?)
Biggest burning question: Is Ben going to get burned by a Kyle Tucker mega-deferral contract? (And if not, would it really be a Contract Over/Under Draft?)
November 13, 2025 at 7:54 PM
Ben and Meg have made their picks in the Contract Over/Under Draft!
Biggest burning question: Is Ben going to get burned by a Kyle Tucker mega-deferral contract? (And if not, would it really be a Contract Over/Under Draft?)
Biggest burning question: Is Ben going to get burned by a Kyle Tucker mega-deferral contract? (And if not, would it really be a Contract Over/Under Draft?)
Your updated listener leaderboard with 3 predictions and ~7 hours remaining:
November 13, 2025 at 5:29 PM
Your updated listener leaderboard with 3 predictions and ~7 hours remaining:
Will hopefully post one last listener leaderboard update later today before the big finish tonight with the announcement of the MVP awards.
In the meantime, If you see something*, say something*
(*sabrina carpenter rumors)
In the meantime, If you see something*, say something*
(*sabrina carpenter rumors)
November 13, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Will hopefully post one last listener leaderboard update later today before the big finish tonight with the announcement of the MVP awards.
In the meantime, If you see something*, say something*
(*sabrina carpenter rumors)
In the meantime, If you see something*, say something*
(*sabrina carpenter rumors)
A delayed but important update: The <94% sac fly success rate prediction is confirmed FALSE.
According to Baseball Savant: 97.5%
According to data provided by @euqubud.baseballprospectus.com: 96.4%
Why are they different? Tune into the results pod next week to find out!
According to Baseball Savant: 97.5%
According to data provided by @euqubud.baseballprospectus.com: 96.4%
Why are they different? Tune into the results pod next week to find out!
November 13, 2025 at 5:02 PM
A delayed but important update: The <94% sac fly success rate prediction is confirmed FALSE.
According to Baseball Savant: 97.5%
According to data provided by @euqubud.baseballprospectus.com: 96.4%
Why are they different? Tune into the results pod next week to find out!
According to Baseball Savant: 97.5%
According to data provided by @euqubud.baseballprospectus.com: 96.4%
Why are they different? Tune into the results pod next week to find out!
For those keeping track, @baumann.bsky.social has about ~20 hours to steal a mascot's costume + motorized conveyance and use them in a violent ploy to convince a baseball player to immediately go on a date with Sabrina Carpenter or the 2nd collision won't be as friendly
November 13, 2025 at 1:41 AM
For those keeping track, @baumann.bsky.social has about ~20 hours to steal a mascot's costume + motorized conveyance and use them in a violent ploy to convince a baseball player to immediately go on a date with Sabrina Carpenter or the 2nd collision won't be as friendly
With the Cy Young Award going to Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes, @baumann.bsky.social's prediction requiring a sub-5.0 fWAR winner is declared FALSE.
November 13, 2025 at 1:00 AM
With the Cy Young Award going to Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes, @baumann.bsky.social's prediction requiring a sub-5.0 fWAR winner is declared FALSE.