Frank Harrell
@f2harrell.bsky.social
Professor of Biostatistics
Vanderbilt University School of Medicine
Expert Biostatistics Advisor
FDA Center for Drug Evaluation and Research
https://hbiostat.org https://fharrell.com
Vanderbilt University School of Medicine
Expert Biostatistics Advisor
FDA Center for Drug Evaluation and Research
https://hbiostat.org https://fharrell.com
Beautifully worded by Miettinen. I’ve seen many clinical studies where a real futility analysis would have stopped the study before the first patient was enrolled.
this is one of my favourite observations about sample size calculations. (afaik first articulated by Miettinen in 1985)
November 25, 2025 at 3:02 PM
Beautifully worded by Miettinen. I’ve seen many clinical studies where a real futility analysis would have stopped the study before the first patient was enrolled.
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Meta halted internal research that purportedly showed (young) people who stopped using Facebook became less depressed and anxious, according to an unredacted legal filing released on Friday. www.cnbc.com/2025/11/23/m...
Meta halted internal research suggesting social media harm, court filing alleges
Meta is alleged to have halted internal research suggesting social media harm, according to court documents.
www.cnbc.com
November 24, 2025 at 12:31 AM
Meta halted internal research that purportedly showed (young) people who stopped using Facebook became less depressed and anxious, according to an unredacted legal filing released on Friday. www.cnbc.com/2025/11/23/m...
Reposted by Frank Harrell
“If you’re quiet now, you would’ve been quiet in 1940.”
November 20, 2025 at 4:44 AM
“If you’re quiet now, you would’ve been quiet in 1940.”
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Weekend reads: Our cofounder credited in fake citation; ‘Substantial’ undisclosed COIs in psychiatry research; an AI threat to online surveys
Weekend reads: Our cofounder credited in fake citation; ‘Substantial’ undisclosed COIs in psychiatry research; an AI threat to online surveys
Computing society pulls works for ‘citation falsification’ months after sleuth is convicted of defamation Research integrity conference hit with AI-generated abstracts AI unreliable in identifying …
retractionwatch.com
November 22, 2025 at 7:44 PM
Weekend reads: Our cofounder credited in fake citation; ‘Substantial’ undisclosed COIs in psychiatry research; an AI threat to online surveys
Reposted by Frank Harrell
#TodayinHistory #dataviz #OTD 📊
📅Nov 20, 1869 Charles Joseph Minard published his iconic flow map graphic of Napoleon's March on Moscow.
Some called it best graphic ever produced, but EJ Marey put it best:
"Defies the pen of the historian in its brutal eloquence"
No known portrait of CJ, only .sig
📅Nov 20, 1869 Charles Joseph Minard published his iconic flow map graphic of Napoleon's March on Moscow.
Some called it best graphic ever produced, but EJ Marey put it best:
"Defies the pen of the historian in its brutal eloquence"
No known portrait of CJ, only .sig
November 21, 2025 at 1:18 AM
#TodayinHistory #dataviz #OTD 📊
📅Nov 20, 1869 Charles Joseph Minard published his iconic flow map graphic of Napoleon's March on Moscow.
Some called it best graphic ever produced, but EJ Marey put it best:
"Defies the pen of the historian in its brutal eloquence"
No known portrait of CJ, only .sig
📅Nov 20, 1869 Charles Joseph Minard published his iconic flow map graphic of Napoleon's March on Moscow.
Some called it best graphic ever produced, but EJ Marey put it best:
"Defies the pen of the historian in its brutal eloquence"
No known portrait of CJ, only .sig
Reposted by Frank Harrell
No matter how some undermine and pervert and obscure the truth, it *remains*. The tragedy to mourn isn't *just* the loss of our anchor to reality, it's the entirely preventable suffering that will now be *promoted* because of it.
www.nytimes.com/.../vaccine-....
www.nytimes.com/.../vaccine-....
www.nytimes.com
November 21, 2025 at 7:29 AM
No matter how some undermine and pervert and obscure the truth, it *remains*. The tragedy to mourn isn't *just* the loss of our anchor to reality, it's the entirely preventable suffering that will now be *promoted* because of it.
www.nytimes.com/.../vaccine-....
www.nytimes.com/.../vaccine-....
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Can’t believe the whole country has to suffer through the return of Dickensian childhood diseases because the worst, most ignorant attention-demanders decided other people’s expertise makes them feel bad
November 20, 2025 at 4:19 AM
Can’t believe the whole country has to suffer through the return of Dickensian childhood diseases because the worst, most ignorant attention-demanders decided other people’s expertise makes them feel bad
Reposted by Frank Harrell
I thought this was going to turn into a story needing its own True Crime Netflix series, but no.
This is quite something.
metro.co.uk/2025/11/18/w...
This is quite something.
metro.co.uk/2025/11/18/w...
'We invited a homeless man for dinner - he stayed for 45 years'
The man was only meant to stay for a day.
metro.co.uk
November 18, 2025 at 2:35 PM
I thought this was going to turn into a story needing its own True Crime Netflix series, but no.
This is quite something.
metro.co.uk/2025/11/18/w...
This is quite something.
metro.co.uk/2025/11/18/w...
A lot of crap research is being done with the microbiome. At the heart of much of the research is fundamentally unreliable data.
Perhaps this is why so much microbiome research is hard to believe.
www.gov.uk/government/n...
www.gov.uk/government/n...
MHRA-led study reveals major inconsistencies in global microbiome research
International collaboration establishes new quality standards to improve reliability of gut health studies – improving accuracy to provide better diagnosis and treatment.
www.gov.uk
November 16, 2025 at 12:46 PM
A lot of crap research is being done with the microbiome. At the heart of much of the research is fundamentally unreliable data.
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Weekend reads: Debunking ‘When Prophecy Fails’; ‘Godfather of AI’ first to reach 1 million citations; ‘Cake causes herpes?’
Weekend reads: Debunking ‘When Prophecy Fails’; ‘Godfather of AI’ first to reach 1 million citations; ‘Cake causes herpes?’
Author changes name, publishes 10 papers in journals that banned him Bug in Springer Nature metadata may be causing ‘significant, systemic’ citation inflation Math is back as Clarivate boosts integ…
retractionwatch.com
November 16, 2025 at 1:09 AM
Weekend reads: Debunking ‘When Prophecy Fails’; ‘Godfather of AI’ first to reach 1 million citations; ‘Cake causes herpes?’
Nice to see all these confidence intervals. I use Wilson as a default but should be using Bayes. Challenge: figure out why “exact” confidence intervals are not recommended.
For people trying to teach themselves more about statistics, go read about these different approaches and try to make sense of why they don't exactly agree. What are they doing differently? Use wikipedia. Look up new terms along the way.
My #rstats cheat code for today is the binom.confint function in the binom package that will spit out *12* different ways of calculating a CI for a proportion.
Also, this is why you use R for statistics...
(and of course the correct CI method is bayes 😎)
Also, this is why you use R for statistics...
(and of course the correct CI method is bayes 😎)
November 16, 2025 at 12:32 PM
Nice to see all these confidence intervals. I use Wilson as a default but should be using Bayes. Challenge: figure out why “exact” confidence intervals are not recommended.
Reposted by Frank Harrell
I wrote something about publication bias at statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/14/t...
November 14, 2025 at 9:17 PM
I wrote something about publication bias at statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/14/t...
Reposted by Frank Harrell
We did a thing. 😬
The link between the gut #microbiome and autism is not backed by science, researchers say.
Read the full opinion piece in @cp-neuron.bsky.social: spkl.io/63322AbxpA
@wiringthebrain.bsky.social, @statsepi.bsky.social, & @deevybee.bsky.social
Read the full opinion piece in @cp-neuron.bsky.social: spkl.io/63322AbxpA
@wiringthebrain.bsky.social, @statsepi.bsky.social, & @deevybee.bsky.social
November 13, 2025 at 5:59 PM
We did a thing. 😬
Reposted by Frank Harrell
What is the most profitable industry in the world, this side of the law? Not oil, not IT, not pharma.
It's *scientific publishing*.
We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...
Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇
It's *scientific publishing*.
We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...
Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇
November 12, 2025 at 10:31 AM
What is the most profitable industry in the world, this side of the law? Not oil, not IT, not pharma.
It's *scientific publishing*.
We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...
Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇
It's *scientific publishing*.
We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...
Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Reposted by Frank Harrell
I had the opportunity to review the work experience and skills of numerous people who were laid off or fired from public health jobs by Donald Trump.
I want every taxpayer to know that the US has lost an immeasurable number of the smartest, most experienced, and hardworking people on the planet.
I want every taxpayer to know that the US has lost an immeasurable number of the smartest, most experienced, and hardworking people on the planet.
November 12, 2025 at 9:43 PM
I had the opportunity to review the work experience and skills of numerous people who were laid off or fired from public health jobs by Donald Trump.
I want every taxpayer to know that the US has lost an immeasurable number of the smartest, most experienced, and hardworking people on the planet.
I want every taxpayer to know that the US has lost an immeasurable number of the smartest, most experienced, and hardworking people on the planet.
Reposted by Frank Harrell
A new release of the mgcv #RStats 📦 is out on CRAN and Simon Wood (U Edinburgh) has added some significant new features despite the small bump in version number:
🌟 scasm() for estimating GAMs with shape constrained smooths. Can be used with any family & smoothness selection is via the EFS method
🌟 scasm() for estimating GAMs with shape constrained smooths. Can be used with any family & smoothness selection is via the EFS method
November 12, 2025 at 11:28 AM
A new release of the mgcv #RStats 📦 is out on CRAN and Simon Wood (U Edinburgh) has added some significant new features despite the small bump in version number:
🌟 scasm() for estimating GAMs with shape constrained smooths. Can be used with any family & smoothness selection is via the EFS method
🌟 scasm() for estimating GAMs with shape constrained smooths. Can be used with any family & smoothness selection is via the EFS method
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Here’s a gift link (no paywall) to the article, “Catholic bishops condemn ‘indiscriminate mass deportation’ in rare statement”:
wapo.st/448fDw6
wapo.st/448fDw6
November 13, 2025 at 5:03 AM
Here’s a gift link (no paywall) to the article, “Catholic bishops condemn ‘indiscriminate mass deportation’ in rare statement”:
wapo.st/448fDw6
wapo.st/448fDw6
Some of the best data detective work I’ve seen, and embarrassing for @bmj.com
This is one of the most remarkable academic debacles I've ever seen.
A large RCT got published in BMJ. There are currently 44 Pubpeer comments, mostly about the data, including...well. Read for yourself.
pubpeer.com/publications...
A large RCT got published in BMJ. There are currently 44 Pubpeer comments, mostly about the data, including...well. Read for yourself.
pubpeer.com/publications...
PubPeer - Prevention of acute myocardial infarction induced heart fail...
There are comments on PubPeer for publication: Prevention of acute myocardial infarction induced heart failure by intracoronary infusion of mesenchymal stem cells: phase 3 randomised clinical trial (P...
pubpeer.com
November 11, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Some of the best data detective work I’ve seen, and embarrassing for @bmj.com
Reposted by Frank Harrell
In the century leading up to 1975, nearly 6000 freighters went down in the Great Lakes.
The Edmund Fitzgerald was the last.
The last. In 50 years, not a single commercial freighter has been lost in the Great Lakes.
Why?
It's NOAA. Of course it's NOAA.
The Edmund Fitzgerald was the last.
The last. In 50 years, not a single commercial freighter has been lost in the Great Lakes.
Why?
It's NOAA. Of course it's NOAA.
November 11, 2025 at 1:50 AM
In the century leading up to 1975, nearly 6000 freighters went down in the Great Lakes.
The Edmund Fitzgerald was the last.
The last. In 50 years, not a single commercial freighter has been lost in the Great Lakes.
Why?
It's NOAA. Of course it's NOAA.
The Edmund Fitzgerald was the last.
The last. In 50 years, not a single commercial freighter has been lost in the Great Lakes.
Why?
It's NOAA. Of course it's NOAA.
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Ten Simple Rules for AI-Assisted Coding in Science arxiv.org/abs/2510.22254 - our latest, led by @ericwbridgeford.bsky.social
Ten Simple Rules for AI-Assisted Coding in Science
While AI coding tools have demonstrated potential to accelerate software development, their use in scientific computing raises critical questions about code quality and scientific validity. In this pa...
arxiv.org
October 28, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Ten Simple Rules for AI-Assisted Coding in Science arxiv.org/abs/2510.22254 - our latest, led by @ericwbridgeford.bsky.social
Reposted by Frank Harrell
What intro stats textbook to use?
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/09/w...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/09/w...
What intro stats textbook to use? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
November 9, 2025 at 4:20 PM
What intro stats textbook to use?
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/09/w...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/09/w...
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Friends of Stats: The U. of Nebraska-Lincoln Department of Statistics needs your help. The university's Chancellor submitted a FINAL proposal today for budget cuts (budgetprocess.unl.edu/final-budget...) that eliminates the department. 1/ #LNK #Nebraska #Huskers @amstatnews.bsky.social
Final Budget Reduction Plan | Budget Process | Nebraska
budgetprocess.unl.edu
November 11, 2025 at 4:06 AM
Friends of Stats: The U. of Nebraska-Lincoln Department of Statistics needs your help. The university's Chancellor submitted a FINAL proposal today for budget cuts (budgetprocess.unl.edu/final-budget...) that eliminates the department. 1/ #LNK #Nebraska #Huskers @amstatnews.bsky.social
Reposted by Frank Harrell
I'm participating in an "Open Science Exploratory Roundtable" in the Max Planck Society later this week, so bumping my grumpy thoughts about open science again. I'm as curious as everyone else to see what a club of competitive narcissists who succeeded under the status quo (the MPG) can manage!
How can we reform science? I have some ideas. But I am not sure you’ll like them, because they don’t promise much. elevanth.org/blog/2025/07...
Which Kind of Science Reform
What hope is there for science reform, if we can't agree on what to reform? Right now, principles are more important than practices.
elevanth.org
November 10, 2025 at 8:38 AM
I'm participating in an "Open Science Exploratory Roundtable" in the Max Planck Society later this week, so bumping my grumpy thoughts about open science again. I'm as curious as everyone else to see what a club of competitive narcissists who succeeded under the status quo (the MPG) can manage!