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Hannes Ullrich

@hannesullrich.com

5.6K followers 1.3K following 300 posts

Economist at DIW Berlin, University of Copenhagen, and Berlin School of Economics Research on Digitilization, Health Care, and Industrial Organization https://www.hannesullrich.com

www.hannesullrich.com

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Hannes Ullrich @hannesullrich.com · Nov 22

Now published in the December issue of Quantitative Marketing and Economics: link.springer.com/article/10.1...

#QME has a very efficient, no BS editorial policy. Can highly recommend!

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Lars Fischer @fischblog.bsky.social · 1h

This is not surprising. We already know direct carbon compensation doesn't work. And carbon credit trading schemes are just a more elaborate version of the same thing.

Ein Simpson-Mem.
Don't make me tap the sign: carbon compensation is a scam.

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Kristof Decoster @kristofdecoster.bsky.social · 2h

Lancet Planetary Health Editorial www.thelancet.com/journals/lan... "The routes of scientific influence are usually through information either directly to policy makers or to sway politicians via public opinion. Both routes appear to be narrower than they have been in recent times."

Evidence with a quiet voice

Important aspects of this moment in history are typified by two developments during the last week of September. On the one hand an annual report from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ...

www.thelancet.com

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Hannes Ullrich @hannesullrich.com · 1h

Should've included a screenshot of the abstract...here it goes:

Screenshot of discussion paper title page with following content:

Are M&As spurring or stifling innovation? Evidence from antidiabetic drug development

Jan Malek, Jo Seldeslachts, Reinhilde Veugelers

July 11, 2025

Abstract
This paper provides empirical evidence on which M&A deals spur innovation, and which stifle it. To do so, we consider not only the product market position of the acquiring firm, but also the position of both target and acquirer in the technology space. Focusing on the antidiabetic drugs market, our dataset tracks the lifecycle and patenting of all individual antidiabetic projects in development between 1997 and 2017. We show that most terminations of acquired projects occur while the projects are still far from product market entry. Nevertheless, a number of these early-stage acquisitions have a positive impact on innovation. These cases arise when incumbents acquire projects close to their own projects in product markets, but only if these projects are also close in technology markets. Those deals are associated with increased subsequent patenting, which is consistent with the exploitation of technological synergies. Our results point to the crucial role of combining both product market and technology market positions in assessing the innovation eﬀects of pharmaceutical M&As.

Reposted by Hannes Ullrich

Daniel Ershov @ershovd.bsky.social · 11h

❗❗❗🚨🚨🚨 Next @cepr.org IO Virtual Gathering is taking place on NOVEMBER 7 at 2pm CET. 1st hr is dedicated to JM presentations by IO candidates graduating from Eur / UK schools. If interested, please submit a draft of your JMP & CV at: t.co/aUTPTWSten by OCTOBER 26! 🚨🚨🚨 ❗❗❗ #econjobmarket

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Carlo "Realism, Gedankenfetzen und Rants" Masala @carlomasala1.bsky.social · 2h

Italien, Österreich, die Niederlande, Frankreich und andere Staaten zeigen wohin das führt. Aber hey, die Hoffnung stirbt zuletzt.

Tagesschau Bot @tagesschau.bsky.social · 2h

Einzelne Unionspolitiker fordern Abkehr von Brandmauer#AfD#Brandmauer#Union

Einzelne Unionspolitiker fordern Abkehr von Brandmauer

Entzauberung gelinge nicht durch Boykott, sagen einzelne Unionspolitiker und fordern einen anderen Umgang mit der AfD.

www.tagesschau.de

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Hannes Ullrich @hannesullrich.com · 14h

Very nice cross-country-industry data collection! There can be more nuanced results regarding effects on innovation when carefully combining actual product market and technology data: www.diw.de/documents/pu...

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Hannes Ullrich @hannesullrich.com · 20h

Das hier. Und städtische Initiativen auf lokale Effekte fokussieren, z.B. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

fabolange.bsky.social @fabolange.bsky.social · 20h

Imo, wäre es besser, wenn Klimaaktivisten und Parteien für das Handelssystem und seine Ausweitung kämpfen würden, statt für Einzelaktionen wie in HH.

Reposted by Hannes Ullrich

Paolo Falco @paolofalco.bsky.social · 21h

🚨 2-Year Postdocs in Dev Econ at Uni Copenhagen 🚨

Come work on some exciting experimental projects😀!

Dedicated time for your own research.

Reach out to hear more!

** PLEASE REPOST **🙏

Application deadline 🗓️: Nov 11

👉http://bit.ly/4q2Uehf

#EconSky

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Cristina Caffarra @cristinacaffarra.bsky.social · 1d

Rich discussion of AI #acquihires (when are they a problem, what shld antitrust do?) turned into broader debate on “do we have a competition problem w Al & what is it?”

Fireside w J Kanter, fab panel @florianederer.bsky.social @igorletina.bsky.social @lugaricano.bsky.social I Marinescu, H Zenger 1/

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Georg Weizsäcker @georgweizsaecker.bsky.social · 2d

What I heard a few days ago: a US faculty member said they would not quote Hannah Arendt in class any more, as a precaution.

Don’t be judgmental about him/her - but it‘s just so terrible.

Bill Kristol @billkristolbulwark.bsky.social · 2d

Pope Leo quotes Hannah Arendt:

“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist."

www.cbsnews.com/chicago/news...

Pope Leo calls for news agencies to stand as bulwark against "post-truths," lies and manipulation

Pope Leo XIV has encouraged international news agencies to stand firm as a bulwark against the "ancient art of lying" and manipulation.

www.cbsnews.com

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Hannes Ullrich @hannesullrich.com · 2d

And this one, though might not be exactly what you're looking for (because it uses ML to obtain a better measure of otherwise unobservable product characteristics): arxiv.org/abs/2503.20711

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Hannes Ullrich @hannesullrich.com · 2d

This, though not much more recent: www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Machine Learning Methods for Demand Estimation

(May 2015) - We survey and apply several techniques from the statistical and computer science literature to the problem of demand estimation. To improve out-of-sample prediction accuracy, we propose a...

www.aeaweb.org

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Prof Peter Hotez MD PhD DSc(hon) @peterhotezmdphd.bsky.social · May 30

No words

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 2d

This is an exact encapsulation of why I moved to Bluesky.

No amount of handwringing in the Atlantic about how I owe some eternal Promethean suffering to the discourse is going to make me stay on a site I hate, that stopped doing anything for me professionally years ago.

Well – no. Bluesky may or may not be, as one centre-right friend who felt unwelcome put it, “self-righteous island”. But the idea that’s why we went is nonsense. That I’ve largely stopped posting on a site that’s done more to shape my career and social circle than the rest of the internet combined is less about avoiding rival opinions (I love arguing with people who are wrong!) than with the fact the site simply became unusable. It stopped generating the things (good jokes, interesting debate, clicks) I wanted; it became extremely good at generating the things (racists, pornbots, racist pornbots) I did not.

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Hannes Ullrich @hannesullrich.com · 2d

Remarkable product crippling by #Google, forcing auto-synchronization, a mediocre and unbearable #AI product, on #YouTube with no way to disable. Way to turn a potential feature into a bug!

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Martin Halla @mhalla.bsky.social · 14d

🇦🇹 Reform des Gesundheitssystems — Die hausarztzentrierte Versorgung wäre ein wichtiges Puzzlestück.👇

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Hannes Ullrich @hannesullrich.com · 3d

Das wäre auch eine wichtige Diskussion in Deutschland. Die momentane Situation erscheint mir nicht sehr sozial und trägt auch nicht zur Qualität der Universitäten bei.

Martin Halla @mhalla.bsky.social · 3d

Ich finde es sehr vernünftig, dass die SPÖ ihre Haltung zu Studiengebühren überdenkt. Bei der Ausgestaltung sollte man aber nachbessern — & sie auf alle Fächer ausweiten. Die Nachlagerung ist ok, aber man sollte sie in bar & nicht nur durch Frondienst leisten können.

Andi Babler @andibabler.at · 3d

Wer in Österreich sein Medizinstudium absolviert hat, soll für unser öffentliches Gesundheitssystem arbeiten. Zumindest eine Zeit lang. Das ist nur gerecht - das habe ich heute am Vorarlberger Landesparteitag betont und das werde ich auf Regierungsebene einbringen. 1/2

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Ruprecht Polenz @polenz.bsky.social · 3d

1/2 „Bis zu fünfzig Millionen Euro soll Gotthardt, der aus Rheinland-Pfalz stammt, in Nius gesteckt haben…Beide Plattformen sind beim "Kulturkampf" an vorderster Front, beschäftigen sich fast täglich mit "Gender", Transsexualität oder den angeblich linken öffentlich-rechtlichen Medien….2/2

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Ilko-Sascha Kowalczuk @ilkokowalczuk.bsky.social · 5d

1/Gestern hielt in Leipzig in der Nikolaikirche Nino Haratischwili die alljährliche Revolutionsrede. Ich wünschte, irgendwer hätte den Einfluss, diese Rede so zu verbreiten, dass sich mit ihr wirklich auseinandergesetzt wird, auch in den Kreisen, in denen man bis jetzt nicht

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Berlin School of Economics @bsoeberlin.bsky.social · 4d

🎓 Thinking about doing a PhD in Business or Economics?

Join for free the DocNet PhD Info Fair at ESMT Berlin!

📅 Monday, November 17, 2025
🕓 Check-in: 15:30 | Panel Discussion: 16:00–17:00 | PhD Fair: 17:00–18:30

Register for free 👉 go.esmt.berlin/DocNetPhDInf...

#econphd #careeropportunity

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DigitalEcon.org @digitalecon.org · 7d

The next #VIDEseminar talk will be coming up tomorrow! 👇

DigitalEcon.org @digitalecon.org · 12d

🚨 Coming up at #VIDEseminar: Pinar Yildirim (Wharton School) @profyildirim.bsky.social

“Artificial Intelligence in Team Dynamics: Who Gets Replaced and Why?”

🔜 Wed, October 8, 11am New York, 5pm Berlin. Open to anyone!

Further information: www.digitalecon.org/seminar

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Hetan Shah @hetanshah.bsky.social · 8d

Nice chart from @ourworldindata.org showing the contrast between what Americans die of (heart disease and cancer) v what the US media reports on (homicide and terrorism). This naturally leads to it being trickier to build a fact based world view
ourworldindata.org/does-the-new...

What Americans die from
and the causes of death the US media reports on
Causes of death in the US in 2023
Heart disease (29%)
Cancer (26%)
Accidents (9.5%)
Stroke (6.9%)
Lower respiratory diseases
(6.2%)
Alzheimer's disease (4.8%)
Diabetes (4.0%)
Kidney failure (2.4%)
Liver disease (2.2%)
Homicide (<1%)
Terrorism (<0.001%)|
COVID-19 (2.1%)
Influenza/Pneu
monia (19%6)

Media coverage of these causes of death in 2023 in...
The New York Times
The Washington Post
Fox News
Heart disease (2.8%)
Heart disease (2.9%)
Cancer (4.1%)
Cancer (4.7%)
Accidents (5.9%)
Cancer (3.8%)
Accidents (6.1%)
Accidents (9.7%)
Suicide (4.1%)
Suicide (3.3%)
COVID-19 (6.0%)
COVID-19 (7.9%)
Suicide (3.8%)
COVID-19 (5.3%)
Drug overdose (7.5%)
Drug overdose (9.8%)
Drug overdose (9.5%)
Cancer (26%)
Accidents (9.5%)
Stroke (6.9%)
Lower respiratory diseases
(6.2%)
Alzheimer's disease (4.8%)
Diabetes (4.0%)
Kidney failure (24%)
Suicide (2.1%0)
COVID-19 (2.1%0
Homicide (42%)
Homicide (52%)
Homicide (46%)
Terrorism (18%)
Terrorism (12%)
Terrorism (11%)
Homicide (<1%)
Terrorism (<0.001%)
Note: Based on the share of causes of death in the US and the share of mentions for each of the causes in the New York Times, the Washington Post and Fox News. All values are normalized to 100%, so the shares are relative to all deaths caused by the 12 most common causes + drug overdoses, homicides and terrorism. These causes account for more than 75% of deaths in the US.
A "media mention" is a published article in one of the outlets which mentions the cause (e,g. "influenza) or related keywords (e.g. "fu") least twice.
Data sources: Media mentions from Media Cloud (2025): deaths data from the US CDC (2025) and Global Terrorism Index.|
CC BY

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Joanna Bryson @j2bryson.bsky.social · 8d

Sense of sentience

I've revised my blogpost for people who have discovered AI "people"; hopefully it's better (more clear) this time joanna-bryson.blogspot.com/2025/09/sens... #AIEthics #AGI #genAI

Sense of sentience

artificial and natural intelligence, including politics, policy, ethics and security

joanna-bryson.blogspot.com

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Paul Hünermund @p-hunermund.com · 11d

And, therefore, there can also not be hierarchy of methods, because it depends on the specific case whether the assumptions are fulfilled.

Chelsea Parlett @chelseaparlett.bsky.social · 11d

It’s not the method that makes you causal it’s the assumptions

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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 10d

If this goes through, Berlin, the Hague, Scandinavians and other frugals will take a hard line: insist that budget will be capped at 1% of GDP.

And they’ll be right: no need to be constructive if EU budget spending modernisation is dead.

EP will have done itself and the Union a disservice.

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 10d

Mamma Mia.

To placate the farm lobby, the EPP is considering an amendment that would scupper the entire EU budget reform.

If agri gets an exemption from the EU budget overhaul, social and other spending categories follow and modernisation goes out the window.

A EPP disaster in the making.

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