Stephen Herzog
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herzogsm.bsky.social
Stephen Herzog
@herzogsm.bsky.social
Professor of the Practice, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies | Associate, Harvard Project on Managing the Atom | nuclear arms control, nonproliferation, disarmament, technology
Pinned
1/7
How might AI enable the (non)proliferation of nuclear weapons? In a new #OpenAccess article in Risk Analysis (@socriskanalysis.bsky.social), Dave Allison & I explore this question. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: The Technological Arms Race for (In)visibility
A robust nonproliferation regime has contained the spread of nuclear weapons to just nine states. Yet, emerging and disruptive technologies are reshaping the landscape of nuclear risks, presenting a ...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
The Nonproliferation Review published the first of 2 special issues from the Harvard–MacArthur Beyond Nuclear Deterrence Working Group.

#OpenAccess intro by the 3 working group co-chairs & special issue editors, Hassan Elbahtimy, @professorrdg.bsky.social, & me: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Getting beyond nuclear deterrence: a research agenda
For eight decades, the practice of nuclear deterrence has been treated as common sense in many influential policy-making and scholarly circles. This remains the case although most states neither po...
www.tandfonline.com
December 2, 2025 at 7:44 PM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
Special thanks to our excellent co-chairs @herzogsm.bsky.social, @professorrdg.bsky.social, and Hassan Elbahtimy!

Check out the whole special issue here:
www.tandfonline.com/toc/rnpr20/3...
The Nonproliferation Review
Beyond Nuclear Deterrence - Special Issue 1. Volume 31, Issue 4-6 of The Nonproliferation Review
www.tandfonline.com
December 3, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
📢 Publication Alert
I'm pleased to share that our latest (open-access) article, together with @carmenwunderlich.bsky.social is now available on NPR! In this piece, we examine why and how states establish nuclear-weapon-free or nuclear-deterrence-based security orders. doi.org/10.1080/1073...
Faith and fear: a cognitive framework for why countries establish nuclear-weapon-free or nuclear-deterrence-based security orders
Why and how do states establish nuclear-weapon-free or nuclear-deterrence-based security orders? In this article we address this question by examining the dynamics that influence states’ decisions ...
doi.org
December 3, 2025 at 1:52 PM
The Nonproliferation Review published the first of 2 special issues from the Harvard–MacArthur Beyond Nuclear Deterrence Working Group.

#OpenAccess intro by the 3 working group co-chairs & special issue editors, Hassan Elbahtimy, @professorrdg.bsky.social, & me: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Getting beyond nuclear deterrence: a research agenda
For eight decades, the practice of nuclear deterrence has been treated as common sense in many influential policy-making and scholarly circles. This remains the case although most states neither po...
www.tandfonline.com
December 2, 2025 at 7:44 PM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
1/5

My article w/Dave Allison on how AI might enable nuclear weapons (non)proliferation has been added to the latest issue of Risk Analysis @socriskanalysis.bsky.social (after appearing online first).

Check it out #OpenAccess: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: The Technological Arms Race for (In)visibility
A robust nonproliferation regime has contained the spread of nuclear weapons to just nine states. Yet, emerging and disruptive technologies are reshaping the landscape of nuclear risks, presenting a ...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
December 1, 2025 at 3:00 PM
1/5

My article w/Dave Allison on how AI might enable nuclear weapons (non)proliferation has been added to the latest issue of Risk Analysis @socriskanalysis.bsky.social (after appearing online first).

Check it out #OpenAccess: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: The Technological Arms Race for (In)visibility
A robust nonproliferation regime has contained the spread of nuclear weapons to just nine states. Yet, emerging and disruptive technologies are reshaping the landscape of nuclear risks, presenting a ...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
December 1, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
Arms control; missile defense in the US, Russia & China; Iran’s nuclear program; Germany & nukes; Euro deterrence & more in this week’s STAND newsletter, a project by @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social on recent news & analyses to better #underSTAND #nuclear #space #deterrence & #threats 1/10
November 28, 2025 at 11:55 AM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
1/2

I was delighted to contribute a chapter to the new book Nuclear Negotiations: Conditions for Effective Nuclear Diplomacy. It was produced by the Alva Myrdal Centre for Nuclear Disarmament @uupeace.bsky.social.

Check out the book! link.springer.com/book/10.1007...
Nuclear Negotiations
This volume studies nuclear negotiations and diplomacy from a negotiation perspective providing key insights for effective nuclear negotiations
link.springer.com
November 21, 2025 at 7:09 PM
1/2

I was delighted to contribute a chapter to the new book Nuclear Negotiations: Conditions for Effective Nuclear Diplomacy. It was produced by the Alva Myrdal Centre for Nuclear Disarmament @uupeace.bsky.social.

Check out the book! link.springer.com/book/10.1007...
Nuclear Negotiations
This volume studies nuclear negotiations and diplomacy from a negotiation perspective providing key insights for effective nuclear negotiations
link.springer.com
November 21, 2025 at 7:09 PM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
@mvranka.bsky.social for @ejisbisa.bsky.social.
Their latest paper uses survey experiments on US & UK policy decision-makers to show that public backing for or opposition to nuclear use shapes perceptions of third party deterrent threats and affects elites’ support for nuclear use.
ssp.news/ls111125
Atomic responsiveness: How public opinion shapes elite beliefs and preferences on nuclear weapon use | European Journal of International Security | Cambridge Core
Atomic responsiveness: How public opinion shapes elite beliefs and preferences on nuclear weapon use
ssp.news
November 20, 2025 at 6:47 PM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
“For international relations and security studies scholars, the continued reluctance by nuclear-armed states to employ their arsenals – even when fighting and losing major wars – remains a significant puzzle,” write @laurensukin.bsky.social, @herzogsm.bsky.social, @smetanamichal.bsky.social, & (1/2)
November 20, 2025 at 6:47 PM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
doing experiments with British MPs is one of my favorite parts of working at @prcp.cuni.cz ,)
1/4

Policymakers often do listen to publics when formulating preferences on nuclear weapon use. Our #OpenAccess article provides first-of-kind evidence about when publics enable, constrain, or are less influential. @ejisbisa.bsky.social @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org

Link: doi.org/10.1017/eis....
November 13, 2025 at 9:14 AM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
Does public opinion shape elite preferences for nuclear weapon use? 🚀 Our new article in @ejisbisa.bsky.social provides the first experimental evidence that political elites are at least partially influenced by public sentiment when considering high-level decisions on nuclear weapon use.
November 12, 2025 at 9:13 AM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
1/4

Policymakers often do listen to publics when formulating preferences on nuclear weapon use. Our #OpenAccess article provides first-of-kind evidence about when publics enable, constrain, or are less influential. @ejisbisa.bsky.social @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org

Link: doi.org/10.1017/eis....
November 12, 2025 at 2:45 PM
1/4

Policymakers often do listen to publics when formulating preferences on nuclear weapon use. Our #OpenAccess article provides first-of-kind evidence about when publics enable, constrain, or are less influential. @ejisbisa.bsky.social @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org

Link: doi.org/10.1017/eis....
November 12, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
November 12, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
Does public opinion matter for nuclear policy? We say yes, in @ejisbisa.bsky.social.

Whether the public backs nuclear use can sway leaders’ preferences and affects external perceptions of the credibility of deterrence.

doi.org/10.1017/eis....
Atomic responsiveness: How public opinion shapes elite beliefs and preferences on nuclear weapon use | European Journal of International Security | Cambridge Core
Atomic responsiveness: How public opinion shapes elite beliefs and preferences on nuclear weapon use
doi.org
November 11, 2025 at 3:16 PM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
Congratulations to @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @laurensukin.bsky.social. @herzogsm.bsky.social, and @mvranka.bsky.social on their new article! They address address the central question: can public opinion influence decision-makers’ views on nuclear weapon use?
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
November 12, 2025 at 1:37 AM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
#OpenAccess from @ejisbisa.bsky.social -

Atomic responsiveness: How public opinion shapes elite beliefs and preferences on nuclear weapon use - https://cup.org/4nNXCtY

- Michal Smetana, @laurensukin.bsky.social, @herzogsm.bsky.social & @mvranka.bsky.social

#FirstView
November 11, 2025 at 1:20 PM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
1/2 Our new paper has just been published in
@ejisbisa.bsky.social 🥰 We designed & fielded an original elite experiment to investigate when & how public opinion on nuclear weapon use shaped elite decision-making.
November 11, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
A new & broad public opinion survey shows US reputation strengthened by actions related to Russia's war against Ukraine, as caution without abandonment & firmness without escalation reassured allies, argue @laurensukin.bsky.social, @herzogsm.bsky.social & Alexander Lanoszka @foreignpolicy.com 5/10
Reliable, Not Reckless
Why Washington’s measured support for Ukraine reassured the world.
foreignpolicy.com
October 31, 2025 at 8:12 AM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
US, Russia’s tests & subs, Euro deterrent, conventional forces, US space force & House of Dynamite in this week’s STAND newsletter, a project by @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social on recent news & analyses to better #underSTAND #nuclear #space #deterrence & #threats 1/10
October 31, 2025 at 8:07 AM