Marek Vranka
@mvranka.bsky.social
psychologist & researcher, interested in soc and moral psy, statistics & critical thinking
This is exactly how it should work; the same with preregistrations: of course, some will still switch DVs or preregister a totally vague analysis plan. The point is, it's all public and can be checked, which wasn't possible before. Clearly a step in the right direction, even if no instant cure-all.
I think this is an overly pessimistic take from the @bmj.com.
Sharing data does not inherently increase trust, rather it enables verification which allows for trust calibration.
This example is a win. Serious issues were rapidly detected that would not have been without mandatory data sharing.
Sharing data does not inherently increase trust, rather it enables verification which allows for trust calibration.
This example is a win. Serious issues were rapidly detected that would not have been without mandatory data sharing.
November 14, 2025 at 11:33 PM
This is exactly how it should work; the same with preregistrations: of course, some will still switch DVs or preregister a totally vague analysis plan. The point is, it's all public and can be checked, which wasn't possible before. Clearly a step in the right direction, even if no instant cure-all.
ok, but when scientists faked description of an actual, real event with many witnesses able to dispute their account, how common and widespread was / is fraud in socSci experimental studies where the possibilities to make-up stuff are almost infinite? at least, that, is how I think about it...
I think many people don't realise that "When Prophecy Fails" is not an experimental study, but a work of history. Its like finding out that a popular Netflix documentary is fake. Bad but does not change science. Social psychology is not based on this book in any way.
There’s growing evidence that something was going seriously wrong in the classic early work on cognitive dissonance
Latest revelation: The story in When Prophecy Fails seems to have been fabricated in the most egregious way
But this is not the only one…
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Latest revelation: The story in When Prophecy Fails seems to have been fabricated in the most egregious way
But this is not the only one…
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
November 13, 2025 at 3:44 PM
ok, but when scientists faked description of an actual, real event with many witnesses able to dispute their account, how common and widespread was / is fraud in socSci experimental studies where the possibilities to make-up stuff are almost infinite? at least, that, is how I think about it...
Reposted by Marek Vranka
Does public opinion shape elite preferences for nuclear weapon use? 🚀 Our new article in @ejisbisa.bsky.social provides the first experimental evidence that political elites are at least partially influenced by public sentiment when considering high-level decisions on nuclear weapon use.
November 12, 2025 at 9:13 AM
Does public opinion shape elite preferences for nuclear weapon use? 🚀 Our new article in @ejisbisa.bsky.social provides the first experimental evidence that political elites are at least partially influenced by public sentiment when considering high-level decisions on nuclear weapon use.
Reposted by Marek Vranka
Does public opinion affect policymaker preferences about nuclear weapon use?
New article from: @herzogsm.bsky.social, @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @laurensukin.bsky.social & @mvranka.bsky.social.
Read in @ejisbisa.bsky.social, @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org:
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
New article from: @herzogsm.bsky.social, @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @laurensukin.bsky.social & @mvranka.bsky.social.
Read in @ejisbisa.bsky.social, @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org:
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
November 12, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Does public opinion affect policymaker preferences about nuclear weapon use?
New article from: @herzogsm.bsky.social, @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @laurensukin.bsky.social & @mvranka.bsky.social.
Read in @ejisbisa.bsky.social, @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org:
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
New article from: @herzogsm.bsky.social, @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @laurensukin.bsky.social & @mvranka.bsky.social.
Read in @ejisbisa.bsky.social, @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org:
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
you can also cite it if you study something else than nuclear weapons and want to show that public opinion matters even in high stakes policy decisions!
4/4
If you do experimental or observational research on the public and nuclear weapons, this is a key reference for explaining why public opinion matters for foreign policy and nuclear choices.
Check it out! www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
If you do experimental or observational research on the public and nuclear weapons, this is a key reference for explaining why public opinion matters for foreign policy and nuclear choices.
Check it out! www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Atomic responsiveness: How public opinion shapes elite beliefs and preferences on nuclear weapon use | European Journal of International Security | Cambridge Core
Atomic responsiveness: How public opinion shapes elite beliefs and preferences on nuclear weapon use
www.cambridge.org
November 13, 2025 at 9:18 AM
you can also cite it if you study something else than nuclear weapons and want to show that public opinion matters even in high stakes policy decisions!
doing experiments with British MPs is one of my favorite parts of working at @prcp.cuni.cz ,)
1/4
Policymakers often do listen to publics when formulating preferences on nuclear weapon use. Our #OpenAccess article provides first-of-kind evidence about when publics enable, constrain, or are less influential. @ejisbisa.bsky.social @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org
Link: doi.org/10.1017/eis....
Policymakers often do listen to publics when formulating preferences on nuclear weapon use. Our #OpenAccess article provides first-of-kind evidence about when publics enable, constrain, or are less influential. @ejisbisa.bsky.social @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org
Link: doi.org/10.1017/eis....
November 13, 2025 at 9:14 AM
doing experiments with British MPs is one of my favorite parts of working at @prcp.cuni.cz ,)
the Online Gathering of MPRG is happening right now (and continues tomorrow)!
The Moral Psychology Research Group will host an Online Gathering this fall November -- all are welcome! Speakers include Joshua Greene, Meltem Yucel, and Paul Bloom as inaugural recipient of the The Stephen P. Stich Award for Career Achievement in Moral Psychology
sites.google.com/view/mprg/on...
sites.google.com/view/mprg/on...
MPRG - Online Events
An Online Gathering for Moral Psychology -- Fall 2025*
Friday, November 7th: 4:00pm to 7:00pm (EST)
Saturday, November 8th: 11:00am to 3:15pm (EST)
sites.google.com
November 7, 2025 at 9:09 PM
the Online Gathering of MPRG is happening right now (and continues tomorrow)!
Reposted by Marek Vranka
📚 Core principles of responsible generative AI usage in research link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Core principles of responsible generative AI usage in research - AI and Ethics
In a rapidly evolving Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) landscape, researchers, policymakers, and publishers have to continuously redefine responsible research practices. To ensure guidance o...
link.springer.com
October 16, 2025 at 7:28 AM
📚 Core principles of responsible generative AI usage in research link.springer.com/article/10.1...
yeah, but also "... —or if you need to do it to pay the bills." 🙃
“Doing research is a choice, and unless you’re involved in some urgent project—curing a disease or winning a war or righting some injustice or raising living standards or whatever—or some interesting project—baseball statistics or the theory of random walks or whatever—you shouldn’t do it.”
More on the decline and fall of Steven Levitt
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/09/24/m...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/09/24/m...
September 27, 2025 at 6:44 AM
yeah, but also "... —or if you need to do it to pay the bills." 🙃
Reposted by Marek Vranka
This is the largest cross-linguistic study on SP to date that used computationally selected stimuli and a continuous lexical decision task. The results reveal consistent & robust priming effects across both Latin & non-Latin languages, pointing to a generalizable cognitive mechanism of SP.
a woman wearing a plaid shirt and a hat says we speak the same language
ALT: a woman wearing a plaid shirt and a hat says we speak the same language
media.tenor.com
September 25, 2025 at 6:25 PM
This is the largest cross-linguistic study on SP to date that used computationally selected stimuli and a continuous lexical decision task. The results reveal consistent & robust priming effects across both Latin & non-Latin languages, pointing to a generalizable cognitive mechanism of SP.
Reposted by Marek Vranka
“On the poor statistical properties of the P-curve meta-analytic procedure”
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/09/25/o...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/09/25/o...
“On the poor statistical properties of the P-curve meta-analytic procedure” | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
September 25, 2025 at 3:51 PM
“On the poor statistical properties of the P-curve meta-analytic procedure”
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/09/25/o...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/09/25/o...
we can even play bingo with this thread bsky.app/profile/ianh... by @ianhussey.mmmdata.io !
Depolarization is not "a scalable solution for reducing societal-level conflict.... achieving lasting depolarization will likely require....moving beyond individual-level treatments to address the elite behaviors and structural incentives that fuel partisan conflict" www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
September 24, 2025 at 6:03 PM
we can even play bingo with this thread bsky.app/profile/ianh... by @ianhussey.mmmdata.io !
Reposted by Marek Vranka
New blog post from Data Colada, responding to the recent criticisms on p-curve analysis. It is a *very* good response. As in, it addresses exactly the points I would have expected in a reply, and it explains why I will still teach p-curve analysis. datacolada.org/129
September 23, 2025 at 12:41 PM
New blog post from Data Colada, responding to the recent criticisms on p-curve analysis. It is a *very* good response. As in, it addresses exactly the points I would have expected in a reply, and it explains why I will still teach p-curve analysis. datacolada.org/129
Reposted by Marek Vranka
'Tylenol' is known in the civilised world as Paracetamol
2.4 million children born in Sweden between 1995 and 2019. Studied 186,000 children whose mothers were treated with paracetamol during pregnancy.
news.ki.se/no-link-betw...
2.4 million children born in Sweden between 1995 and 2019. Studied 186,000 children whose mothers were treated with paracetamol during pregnancy.
news.ki.se/no-link-betw...
No link between paracetamol use during pregnancy and autism or ADHD in children
In the largest epidemiologic study to date of the risk of giving birth to a child with autism, ADHD or intellectual disability following acetaminophen use during pregnancy, researchers found no associ...
news.ki.se
September 22, 2025 at 9:05 AM
'Tylenol' is known in the civilised world as Paracetamol
2.4 million children born in Sweden between 1995 and 2019. Studied 186,000 children whose mothers were treated with paracetamol during pregnancy.
news.ki.se/no-link-betw...
2.4 million children born in Sweden between 1995 and 2019. Studied 186,000 children whose mothers were treated with paracetamol during pregnancy.
news.ki.se/no-link-betw...
Reposted by Marek Vranka
this is a very sharp piece on why it makes no sense to run universities as if they are businesses. They're not businesses.
www.afr.com/work-and-car...
www.afr.com/work-and-car...
September 22, 2025 at 7:09 AM
this is a very sharp piece on why it makes no sense to run universities as if they are businesses. They're not businesses.
www.afr.com/work-and-car...
www.afr.com/work-and-car...
Villeneuve should make finishing this www.imdb.com/title/tt3188... the top priority, especially in light of developments like these: thebulletin.org/2025/09/the-... ...
September 19, 2025 at 10:47 PM
Villeneuve should make finishing this www.imdb.com/title/tt3188... the top priority, especially in light of developments like these: thebulletin.org/2025/09/the-... ...
since I first heard about LLM "silicon samples," I've been baffled by the idea. even if a group of humans were able to predict the behavior or answers of others, no one would use it instead of real data, cause there would clearly be unknown biases and situations in which the predictions would fail.
Can large language models stand in for human participants?
Many social scientists seem to think so, and are already using "silicon samples" in research.
One problem: depending on the analytic decisions made, you can basically get these samples to show any effect you want.
THREAD 🧵
Many social scientists seem to think so, and are already using "silicon samples" in research.
One problem: depending on the analytic decisions made, you can basically get these samples to show any effect you want.
THREAD 🧵
The threat of analytic flexibility in using large language models to simulate human data: A call to attention
Social scientists are now using large language models to create "silicon samples" - synthetic datasets intended to stand in for human respondents, aimed at revolutionising human subjects research. How...
arxiv.org
September 19, 2025 at 10:18 AM
since I first heard about LLM "silicon samples," I've been baffled by the idea. even if a group of humans were able to predict the behavior or answers of others, no one would use it instead of real data, cause there would clearly be unknown biases and situations in which the predictions would fail.
just found out that a study about chatGPT predictions of experimental condition effects that I was a tiny bit involved in was published - already a year ago 😅 royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.... - even the now archaic gpt-4 did as well as humans, would be interesting to see current models
September 17, 2025 at 9:56 PM
just found out that a study about chatGPT predictions of experimental condition effects that I was a tiny bit involved in was published - already a year ago 😅 royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.... - even the now archaic gpt-4 did as well as humans, would be interesting to see current models
Reposted by Marek Vranka
What does that mean?
Bad news: democratic views are even more fluid than recently shown. In times when we feel poorly, we evaluate opponents + institutions more harshly.
Good news: there are limits to this. Short-term changes in affect (eg traffic jam) won’t shift views or prompt intolerance
7/8🧵
Bad news: democratic views are even more fluid than recently shown. In times when we feel poorly, we evaluate opponents + institutions more harshly.
Good news: there are limits to this. Short-term changes in affect (eg traffic jam) won’t shift views or prompt intolerance
7/8🧵
September 17, 2025 at 3:11 PM
What does that mean?
Bad news: democratic views are even more fluid than recently shown. In times when we feel poorly, we evaluate opponents + institutions more harshly.
Good news: there are limits to this. Short-term changes in affect (eg traffic jam) won’t shift views or prompt intolerance
7/8🧵
Bad news: democratic views are even more fluid than recently shown. In times when we feel poorly, we evaluate opponents + institutions more harshly.
Good news: there are limits to this. Short-term changes in affect (eg traffic jam) won’t shift views or prompt intolerance
7/8🧵
thanks to all attendees and panelists for a great discussion, and a special shout-out to Jeff for bringing up Imre Lakatos ❤️
September 13, 2025 at 6:09 PM
thanks to all attendees and panelists for a great discussion, and a special shout-out to Jeff for bringing up Imre Lakatos ❤️
if you’re at #APSA2025 in Vancouver, check out our roundtable on the Nuclear Taboo (Sat, Sep 13, 8 AM), with a great lineup of nuclear non-use scholars discussing norm contestation, elite–public attitudes, and the alleged erosion of the nuclear taboo
Theme Panel: Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and the “Nuclear Taboo” #APSA2025
Theme Panel: Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and the “Nuclear Taboo”
In-Person Roundtable Participants: (Chair) Michal Smetana, Charles University (Presenter) Lauren Sukin, University of Oxford (Presenter) R. Charli Carpenter, University of Massachusetts, Amherst (Presenter) Stephen Herzog, Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey (Presenter) Naomi Egel, University of Georgia (Presenter) Jeffrey W. Knopf, Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey (Presenter) Marek Vranka, Charles University (Presenter) Ondrej Rosendorf, Institute of Political Science, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University…
politicalsciencenow.com
September 11, 2025 at 1:15 PM
if you’re at #APSA2025 in Vancouver, check out our roundtable on the Nuclear Taboo (Sat, Sep 13, 8 AM), with a great lineup of nuclear non-use scholars discussing norm contestation, elite–public attitudes, and the alleged erosion of the nuclear taboo
funny how banning smartphones in classrooms has become one of the few things both sides agree on 🙃 however, the research was kind of flimsy... now a new big study out of India shows some benefits; especially for struggling students – although the overall boost looks small (about d 0.08)
The first large-scale randomised control study yields a ringing endorsement
Banning smartphones in classrooms helps students
The first large-scale randomised control study yields a ringing endorsement
econ.st
September 4, 2025 at 12:05 PM
funny how banning smartphones in classrooms has become one of the few things both sides agree on 🙃 however, the research was kind of flimsy... now a new big study out of India shows some benefits; especially for struggling students – although the overall boost looks small (about d 0.08)
pinging @fsv.charlesuni.cuni.cz for some inspiration re: office furniture 😉
September 4, 2025 at 11:41 AM
pinging @fsv.charlesuni.cuni.cz for some inspiration re: office furniture 😉
Reposted by Marek Vranka
Experts of BlueSky: what are the best recent papers, studies & sources on mercenaries / private security companies, particularly how the field has evolved as business over the last few years? I'm interested in global examples, rather than just Western & Russian ones.
September 4, 2025 at 9:12 AM
Experts of BlueSky: what are the best recent papers, studies & sources on mercenaries / private security companies, particularly how the field has evolved as business over the last few years? I'm interested in global examples, rather than just Western & Russian ones.
Reposted by Marek Vranka
I've updated the marketing replication tracker through 2024. So far, 5 out of 45 (11%) of all direct replications of marketing studies (studies published in scientific marketing journals such as Journal of Consumer Research and Journal of Marketing Research). openmkt.org/research/rep...
January 1, 2025 at 11:23 PM
I've updated the marketing replication tracker through 2024. So far, 5 out of 45 (11%) of all direct replications of marketing studies (studies published in scientific marketing journals such as Journal of Consumer Research and Journal of Marketing Research). openmkt.org/research/rep...