Marek Vranka
@mvranka.bsky.social
psychologist & researcher, interested in soc and moral psy, statistics & critical thinking
so excited to join #PSE8! can’t wait to meet friends IRL and get some inspiration on what to do with my academic life in the age of AI 😅 the line-up is 🔥 perspectivesonscientificerror2026.wordpress.com and they even got @fbartos.bsky.social as a keynote! 😊
Everything is ready for the Perspectives on Scientific Error conference that starts tomorrow in Leiden! I look forward to hanging out with the mix of metascientists, philosophers of science, and statisticians! So many old friends will be there (and hopefully some new ones)! #PSE8
February 10, 2026 at 5:38 PM
so excited to join #PSE8! can’t wait to meet friends IRL and get some inspiration on what to do with my academic life in the age of AI 😅 the line-up is 🔥 perspectivesonscientificerror2026.wordpress.com and they even got @fbartos.bsky.social as a keynote! 😊
Reposted by Marek Vranka
Y’all didn’t realize they were using “Democracy dies in darkness” as a mission statement, not a salutary motto
February 4, 2026 at 4:14 PM
Y’all didn’t realize they were using “Democracy dies in darkness” as a mission statement, not a salutary motto
Reposted by Marek Vranka
This headline number has generated a lot of attention, but does not account for the classifier's accuracy. @jamiecummins.bsky.social and I wrote a short commentary showing that, assuming a paper mill base rate of 10%, 30% of the flagged papers are false positives. At a base rate of 5%, 50% are FPs.
Knowledge pollution! 👇
"...more than 250,000 cancer research papers that may have been produced by so-called 'paper mills.''
"Flagged papers have increased dramatically over two decades, rising from around 1% in the early 2000s and peaking at over 16% in 2022."
medicalxpress.com/news/2026-01...
"...more than 250,000 cancer research papers that may have been produced by so-called 'paper mills.''
"Flagged papers have increased dramatically over two decades, rising from around 1% in the early 2000s and peaking at over 16% in 2022."
medicalxpress.com/news/2026-01...
Scientific 'spam filter' flags over 250,000 potentially fake cancer studies
A new machine learning tool has identified more than 250,000 cancer research papers that may have been produced by so-called "paper mills." Developed by QUT researcher Professor Adrian Barnett, from t...
medicalxpress.com
February 3, 2026 at 1:45 PM
This headline number has generated a lot of attention, but does not account for the classifier's accuracy. @jamiecummins.bsky.social and I wrote a short commentary showing that, assuming a paper mill base rate of 10%, 30% of the flagged papers are false positives. At a base rate of 5%, 50% are FPs.
this is a super clear illustration of the importance & benefits of preregistration and my favourite plot on the topic! I had no idea it is by @scientificdiscovery.dev – it's a small world (in data), I guess! 😅
@scientificdiscovery.dev Hi, I am creating a new version of my free online MOOC, and would like to use this picture, of which you have the copyright. Is it ok if I put it in a slide?
February 2, 2026 at 1:17 PM
this is a super clear illustration of the importance & benefits of preregistration and my favourite plot on the topic! I had no idea it is by @scientificdiscovery.dev – it's a small world (in data), I guess! 😅
Reposted by Marek Vranka
"...Russia is willing to absorb higher attrition rates on cruise missiles if the payoff is significant: disabling manoeuvring generation far from the front, disrupting power routing from nuclear plants, and forcing Ukraine into nationwide load-shedding." rochan-consulting.com/russian-stri...
Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy CI - Trends and Outlook - Rochan Consulting
In November 2025, I delivered a presentation to a client on Russian strikes against Ukrainian...
rochan-consulting.com
January 27, 2026 at 9:11 AM
"...Russia is willing to absorb higher attrition rates on cruise missiles if the payoff is significant: disabling manoeuvring generation far from the front, disrupting power routing from nuclear plants, and forcing Ukraine into nationwide load-shedding." rochan-consulting.com/russian-stri...
Reposted by Marek Vranka
We are hiring a Professor!
The Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University, the world’s leading research environments in the field, is now recruiting a Professor. We welcome applications from internationally recognized scholars. uu.varbi.com/en/what:job/...
The Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University, the world’s leading research environments in the field, is now recruiting a Professor. We welcome applications from internationally recognized scholars. uu.varbi.com/en/what:job/...
Professor of Peace and Conflict Research
Uppsala University announces a vacancy for a permanent position as Professor of Peace and Conflict Research At the Department of Peace and Conflict Research The Department is one of the
uu.varbi.com
January 26, 2026 at 3:00 PM
We are hiring a Professor!
The Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University, the world’s leading research environments in the field, is now recruiting a Professor. We welcome applications from internationally recognized scholars. uu.varbi.com/en/what:job/...
The Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University, the world’s leading research environments in the field, is now recruiting a Professor. We welcome applications from internationally recognized scholars. uu.varbi.com/en/what:job/...
Reposted by Marek Vranka
Everyone wants to blame the content: misinformation, bots, polarisation. That mistakes catalysts and symptoms for the underlying causes. The crisis isn’t bad information, it's that the very information infrastructure we relied on to create a shared understand of the world had changed completely.
January 23, 2026 at 9:11 AM
Everyone wants to blame the content: misinformation, bots, polarisation. That mistakes catalysts and symptoms for the underlying causes. The crisis isn’t bad information, it's that the very information infrastructure we relied on to create a shared understand of the world had changed completely.
Reposted by Marek Vranka
Our director @smetanamichal.bsky.social won the #NeuronPrize for Promising Scientists in the Social Sciences field. 👏 The jury praised his innovative approach to combining IR, security studies & political psychology with advanced experimental methods. Our warmest congratulations, Michal!
January 19, 2026 at 9:49 AM
Our director @smetanamichal.bsky.social won the #NeuronPrize for Promising Scientists in the Social Sciences field. 👏 The jury praised his innovative approach to combining IR, security studies & political psychology with advanced experimental methods. Our warmest congratulations, Michal!
this also explains these results: link.springer.com/article/10.3... - I believe bots would be more consistent than humans who do not understand the survey questions very well / simply do not care enough ,)
January 9, 2026 at 8:51 AM
this also explains these results: link.springer.com/article/10.3... - I believe bots would be more consistent than humans who do not understand the survey questions very well / simply do not care enough ,)
Reposted by Marek Vranka
"The Bots Ruining Social Science Are Not Bots at All" ... the name of the platform should have given us a hint.
January 9, 2026 at 7:40 AM
"The Bots Ruining Social Science Are Not Bots at All" ... the name of the platform should have given us a hint.
I am no expert, but this kinda looks like one 🙃
January 7, 2026 at 7:48 AM
I am no expert, but this kinda looks like one 🙃
this is great – I've been playing with the idea for Czech RN for a couple of years, never knew where to start (except for registering the czrn.cz domain 😅) – this helps a lot! since I was finally forced to leave my student's years behind, I might get to this in 2026!
New paper!
We describe how grassroots networks can help implement and harmonize open research efforts via our experience establishing the Norwegian Reproducibility Network [email protected].
doi.org/10.7557/11.8...
We describe how grassroots networks can help implement and harmonize open research efforts via our experience establishing the Norwegian Reproducibility Network [email protected].
doi.org/10.7557/11.8...
December 18, 2025 at 11:24 AM
this is great – I've been playing with the idea for Czech RN for a couple of years, never knew where to start (except for registering the czrn.cz domain 😅) – this helps a lot! since I was finally forced to leave my student's years behind, I might get to this in 2026!
just for the record – before reading the thread – based solely on “replications in the field of regulatory fit,” I’d bet on “no.” My prior for anything involving regulatory focus/fit is actually a bit lower than my prior for money priming 🙃
Does “feeling right”—that is, experiencing regulatory fit—lead us to act more in line with our moral preferences?
With @schildchristoph.bsky.social and @stepf.bsky.social, we conducted a series of the first large-scale, independent close replications in the field of regulatory fit.
With @schildchristoph.bsky.social and @stepf.bsky.social, we conducted a series of the first large-scale, independent close replications in the field of regulatory fit.
December 5, 2025 at 3:54 PM
just for the record – before reading the thread – based solely on “replications in the field of regulatory fit,” I’d bet on “no.” My prior for anything involving regulatory focus/fit is actually a bit lower than my prior for money priming 🙃
I agree that it is a bit of a mess and I am sure the intent behind the idea is good, but "repeatability" immediately reminds me of this xkcd xkcd.com/927/
December 3, 2025 at 8:50 PM
I agree that it is a bit of a mess and I am sure the intent behind the idea is good, but "repeatability" immediately reminds me of this xkcd xkcd.com/927/
this looks amazing! just yesterday we talked about doi.org/10.1016/j.jr... and www.nature.com/articles/s44... in a methods class, so I am sending this to my students to check out right away!
🚨 SynthNet is out 🚨
Researchers propose new constructs and measures faster than anyone can track. We (@anniria.bsky.social @ruben.the100.ci) built a search engine to check what already exists and help identify redundancies; indexing 74,000 scales from ~31,500 instruments in APA PsycTests. 🧵1/3
Researchers propose new constructs and measures faster than anyone can track. We (@anniria.bsky.social @ruben.the100.ci) built a search engine to check what already exists and help identify redundancies; indexing 74,000 scales from ~31,500 instruments in APA PsycTests. 🧵1/3
November 28, 2025 at 9:31 AM
this looks amazing! just yesterday we talked about doi.org/10.1016/j.jr... and www.nature.com/articles/s44... in a methods class, so I am sending this to my students to check out right away!
This is exactly how it should work; the same with preregistrations: of course, some will still switch DVs or preregister a totally vague analysis plan. The point is, it's all public and can be checked, which wasn't possible before. Clearly a step in the right direction, even if no instant cure-all.
I think this is an overly pessimistic take from the @bmj.com.
Sharing data does not inherently increase trust, rather it enables verification which allows for trust calibration.
This example is a win. Serious issues were rapidly detected that would not have been without mandatory data sharing.
Sharing data does not inherently increase trust, rather it enables verification which allows for trust calibration.
This example is a win. Serious issues were rapidly detected that would not have been without mandatory data sharing.
November 14, 2025 at 11:33 PM
This is exactly how it should work; the same with preregistrations: of course, some will still switch DVs or preregister a totally vague analysis plan. The point is, it's all public and can be checked, which wasn't possible before. Clearly a step in the right direction, even if no instant cure-all.
ok, but when scientists faked description of an actual, real event with many witnesses able to dispute their account, how common and widespread was / is fraud in socSci experimental studies where the possibilities to make-up stuff are almost infinite? at least, that, is how I think about it...
I think many people don't realise that "When Prophecy Fails" is not an experimental study, but a work of history. Its like finding out that a popular Netflix documentary is fake. Bad but does not change science. Social psychology is not based on this book in any way.
There’s growing evidence that something was going seriously wrong in the classic early work on cognitive dissonance
Latest revelation: The story in When Prophecy Fails seems to have been fabricated in the most egregious way
But this is not the only one…
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Latest revelation: The story in When Prophecy Fails seems to have been fabricated in the most egregious way
But this is not the only one…
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
November 13, 2025 at 3:44 PM
ok, but when scientists faked description of an actual, real event with many witnesses able to dispute their account, how common and widespread was / is fraud in socSci experimental studies where the possibilities to make-up stuff are almost infinite? at least, that, is how I think about it...
Reposted by Marek Vranka
Does public opinion shape elite preferences for nuclear weapon use? 🚀 Our new article in @ejisbisa.bsky.social provides the first experimental evidence that political elites are at least partially influenced by public sentiment when considering high-level decisions on nuclear weapon use.
November 12, 2025 at 9:13 AM
Does public opinion shape elite preferences for nuclear weapon use? 🚀 Our new article in @ejisbisa.bsky.social provides the first experimental evidence that political elites are at least partially influenced by public sentiment when considering high-level decisions on nuclear weapon use.
Reposted by Marek Vranka
Does public opinion affect policymaker preferences about nuclear weapon use?
New article from: @herzogsm.bsky.social, @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @laurensukin.bsky.social & @mvranka.bsky.social.
Read in @ejisbisa.bsky.social, @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org:
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
New article from: @herzogsm.bsky.social, @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @laurensukin.bsky.social & @mvranka.bsky.social.
Read in @ejisbisa.bsky.social, @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org:
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
November 12, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Does public opinion affect policymaker preferences about nuclear weapon use?
New article from: @herzogsm.bsky.social, @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @laurensukin.bsky.social & @mvranka.bsky.social.
Read in @ejisbisa.bsky.social, @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org:
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
New article from: @herzogsm.bsky.social, @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @laurensukin.bsky.social & @mvranka.bsky.social.
Read in @ejisbisa.bsky.social, @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org:
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
you can also cite it if you study something else than nuclear weapons and want to show that public opinion matters even in high stakes policy decisions!
4/4
If you do experimental or observational research on the public and nuclear weapons, this is a key reference for explaining why public opinion matters for foreign policy and nuclear choices.
Check it out! www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
If you do experimental or observational research on the public and nuclear weapons, this is a key reference for explaining why public opinion matters for foreign policy and nuclear choices.
Check it out! www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Atomic responsiveness: How public opinion shapes elite beliefs and preferences on nuclear weapon use | European Journal of International Security | Cambridge Core
Atomic responsiveness: How public opinion shapes elite beliefs and preferences on nuclear weapon use
www.cambridge.org
November 13, 2025 at 9:18 AM
you can also cite it if you study something else than nuclear weapons and want to show that public opinion matters even in high stakes policy decisions!
doing experiments with British MPs is one of my favorite parts of working at @prcp.cuni.cz ,)
1/4
Policymakers often do listen to publics when formulating preferences on nuclear weapon use. Our #OpenAccess article provides first-of-kind evidence about when publics enable, constrain, or are less influential. @ejisbisa.bsky.social @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org
Link: doi.org/10.1017/eis....
Policymakers often do listen to publics when formulating preferences on nuclear weapon use. Our #OpenAccess article provides first-of-kind evidence about when publics enable, constrain, or are less influential. @ejisbisa.bsky.social @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org
Link: doi.org/10.1017/eis....
November 13, 2025 at 9:14 AM
doing experiments with British MPs is one of my favorite parts of working at @prcp.cuni.cz ,)
the Online Gathering of MPRG is happening right now (and continues tomorrow)!
The Moral Psychology Research Group will host an Online Gathering this fall November -- all are welcome! Speakers include Joshua Greene, Meltem Yucel, and Paul Bloom as inaugural recipient of the The Stephen P. Stich Award for Career Achievement in Moral Psychology
sites.google.com/view/mprg/on...
sites.google.com/view/mprg/on...
MPRG - Online Events
An Online Gathering for Moral Psychology -- Fall 2025*
Friday, November 7th: 4:00pm to 7:00pm (EST)
Saturday, November 8th: 11:00am to 3:15pm (EST)
sites.google.com
November 7, 2025 at 9:09 PM
the Online Gathering of MPRG is happening right now (and continues tomorrow)!
Reposted by Marek Vranka
📚 Core principles of responsible generative AI usage in research link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Core principles of responsible generative AI usage in research - AI and Ethics
In a rapidly evolving Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) landscape, researchers, policymakers, and publishers have to continuously redefine responsible research practices. To ensure guidance o...
link.springer.com
October 16, 2025 at 7:28 AM
📚 Core principles of responsible generative AI usage in research link.springer.com/article/10.1...
yeah, but also "... —or if you need to do it to pay the bills." 🙃
“Doing research is a choice, and unless you’re involved in some urgent project—curing a disease or winning a war or righting some injustice or raising living standards or whatever—or some interesting project—baseball statistics or the theory of random walks or whatever—you shouldn’t do it.”
More on the decline and fall of Steven Levitt
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/09/24/m...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/09/24/m...
September 27, 2025 at 6:44 AM
yeah, but also "... —or if you need to do it to pay the bills." 🙃
Reposted by Marek Vranka
This is the largest cross-linguistic study on SP to date that used computationally selected stimuli and a continuous lexical decision task. The results reveal consistent & robust priming effects across both Latin & non-Latin languages, pointing to a generalizable cognitive mechanism of SP.
a woman wearing a plaid shirt and a hat says we speak the same language
ALT: a woman wearing a plaid shirt and a hat says we speak the same language
media.tenor.com
September 25, 2025 at 6:25 PM
This is the largest cross-linguistic study on SP to date that used computationally selected stimuli and a continuous lexical decision task. The results reveal consistent & robust priming effects across both Latin & non-Latin languages, pointing to a generalizable cognitive mechanism of SP.