Hugh Pemberton
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hugh-pemberton.bsky.social
Hugh Pemberton
@hugh-pemberton.bsky.social
1.3K followers 540 following 420 posts

Recent British history is my thing (political, governmental, economic); armchair strategic studies my secret vice. Emeritus Prof at Bristol. Sometime historian of the UK civil service, more recently of Thatcherism. But often on my allotment these days .. more

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Hugh R. Pemberton, FRHistS, is an academic historian specialising in the late twentieth-century British politics and British social and economic policy. As of 2018, he is Professor of Contemporary British History at the University of Bristol. .. more

Political science 54%
Economics 32%
Posts Replies Media Videos

hugh-pemberton.bsky.social
Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 1d
Eighty years of peace between the great powers means almost nobody now has experienced a major war between them. Memory is fading, and therein lies the most direct threat to the endurance of peace
reader.foreignaffairs.com/2025/11/24/t...
The End of the Longest Peace?
One of History’s Greatest Achievements Is Under Threat
reader.foreignaffairs.com

hugh-pemberton.bsky.social
Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 1d
"In practice, if you are doing fare freezes, what you are doing is cutting back the amount you spend on the railways". And we know where that leads...
@stephenkb.bsky.social at ep.ft.com/permalink/em...

hugh-pemberton.bsky.social
Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 2d
Part of the prevalent "everything must change but nothing must change" mentality

hugh-pemberton.bsky.social
Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 2d
Refreshing bluntness from @chrisdillow.bsky.social on why we need both higher taxes on the better off (not the rich) and for quite a lot of people to lose their jobs
open.substack.com/pub/chrisdil...
The fiscal challenge
Reeves' problem isn't raising money: it's much more difficult than that.
open.substack.com

hugh-pemberton.bsky.social
Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 6d
Think tanks do not and cannot plan, and never have done because they don't have the resources. Placing much less faith in think tanks would be a good first step towards getting out of our current hole

Reposted by Will Jennings, Tim Bale, Hugh Pemberton , and 3 more

henrymance.ft.com
Henry Mance @henrymance.ft.com · 6d
I am moving to Dubai because England is so dangerous. www.ft.com/content/9bf6...

hugh-pemberton.bsky.social
Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 6d
Hello, is that Russian Supreme Military Command? SACEUR here. Now, about your invasion of E. Europe. Could you possibly put it off for a month and a half so we can get our troops and armour over from the North Sea ports?

on.ft.com/4oP5Jbc via @FT
The surreal 45-day trek at the heart of Nato’s defence
Europe wrestles with crumbling bridges, narrow tunnels and red tape as it plans how to move an army eastward
on.ft.com

hugh-pemberton.bsky.social
Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 10d
👇
stephenkb.bsky.social Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 10d
I feel like the weird thing is the 'the inheritance is terrible! You are just impatient! Or a Corbynite! Or want Nigel Farage!' crowd have not absorbed *how* terrible the inheritance is, and therefore do not understand why the rest of us are going 'wow you *really* need to use a bigger shovel'.

hugh-pemberton.bsky.social
Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 10d
I wish I'd written this. From @chrisdillow.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/chrisdil...
On incompetence
Much of our political culture is fundamentally incompetent.
open.substack.com

Reposted by Hugh Pemberton

stephenkb.bsky.social
Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 10d
I feel like the weird thing is the 'the inheritance is terrible! You are just impatient! Or a Corbynite! Or want Nigel Farage!' crowd have not absorbed *how* terrible the inheritance is, and therefore do not understand why the rest of us are going 'wow you *really* need to use a bigger shovel'.

hugh-pemberton.bsky.social
Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 11d
Indeed!

Reposted by Martin McKee, Will Jennings, Steve Peers , and 10 more

timbale.bsky.social
Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 11d
Read 'em and weep. (www.nber.org/system/files...)
This paper examines the impact of the UK's decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) in 2016. Using almost a decade of data since the referendum, we combine simulations based on macro data with estimates derived from micro data collected through our Decision Maker Panel survey. These estimates suggest that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time. We estimate that investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%. These large negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process. Comparing these with contemporary forecasts – providing a rare macro example to complement the burgeoning microliterature of social science predictions – shows that these forecasts were accurate over a 5-year horizon, but they underestimated the impact over a decade.

hugh-pemberton.bsky.social
Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 11d
Absolutely. Been going on for a while, of course, but it isn't helpful and seems to have reached new levels of stupidity. Apart from anything else it introduces absolute chaos into a process that has always been fraught

hugh-pemberton.bsky.social
Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 11d
Despite a clear warning from the Public Accounts Committee of a “clear risk” in allowing Capita to take over administration of the Civil Service Pension Scheme given the firm's record the Cabinet Office are ... going ahead regardless.
Cabinet Office confirms Civil Service Pension Scheme handover
Capita gets “final” go-ahead to take over scheme administration following delayed decision
www.civilserviceworld.com

hugh-pemberton.bsky.social
Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 11d
Please God can we go back to the days of Budget purdah. Two months of quiet from Treasury ministers, spads, and officials whilst they put the budget together might help to wind down this incessant speculation.
stephenkb.bsky.social Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 11d
The United Kingdom really does have an unnecessarily complex tax system and adding c£20bn of fun little revenue raisers will not help. Today's newsletter:
Budget U-turn hammers UK competitiveness
Risky to raise revenue via tweaks and novel taxes, especially through rushed changes
www.ft.com

Reposted by Hugh Pemberton

stephenkb.bsky.social
Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 11d
The United Kingdom really does have an unnecessarily complex tax system and adding c£20bn of fun little revenue raisers will not help. Today's newsletter:
Budget U-turn hammers UK competitiveness
Risky to raise revenue via tweaks and novel taxes, especially through rushed changes
www.ft.com

Reposted by Hugh Pemberton

chrisdillow.bsky.social
Chris Dillow @chrisdillow.bsky.social · 11d
Yes I know all economists love a policy trilemma. But what we have now is a simple dilemma: you can pay attention to political reporters; or you can have intelligent economic policy. Choose one.

hugh-pemberton.bsky.social
Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 12d
And they're an absolute menace on pavements

hugh-pemberton.bsky.social
Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 12d
Depressing @jburnmurdoch.ft.com and @sarahoconnorft.ft.com newsletter today - general use of AI in crafting job applications now makes it impossible to identify the best candidates. So a probable return to "it's not what you know, it's who you know" recruitment? Top work everyone!

Reposted by Hugh Pemberton

economist.com
The Economist @economist.com · 12d
They’re smug, snug and often faster than drivers
Parents on e-bikes are transforming the school run
They’re smug, snug and often faster than drivers
econ.st

hugh-pemberton.bsky.social
Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 12d
"sometimes it pays to watch the flow of container ships and auto transport ships—and not to just trust the Chinese data"
www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-...
China’s Massive Surplus is Everywhere (Yet The IMF Still Has Trouble Seeing It Clearly)
China’s reported current account surplus understates China’s contribution to global trade imbalances. The massive gap between China’s export and import volume growth over the last six years tells a m…
www.cfr.org

hugh-pemberton.bsky.social
Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 13d
Striking that a little-reported UK story makes the Washington Post's lead editorial this morning - the breakdown of UK-US intelligence sharing (a fundamental pillar of the "special relationship") due to UK issues with US extra-judicial killings in the Caribbean
A sea-chamge in the special relationship

hugh-pemberton.bsky.social
Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 15d
"We’re about 200 yards away here from the first Peabody estate which is the birth of social housing in this country and yet around the corner we’re having to start again"
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
Crisis charity to become a landlord in attempt to rectify ‘catastrophic’ housing in UK
Exclusive: Homelessness charity planning to buy properties as it can no longer rely on access to social housing
www.theguardian.com

hugh-pemberton.bsky.social
Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 15d
Best take so far on the BBC farrago from @stephenkb.bsky.social. BBC News is fundamentally important to Britons but would be easier to defend if its quality was better. That's not about "bias". It's about money, poor management, editorial misjudgements, and a persistent failure to learn from errors
Good morning. My thanks to Chris, Jen, David, Simon and Georgina for their excellent newsletters while I was away for my anniversary (the big 10, which I think is “tin”).
ep.ft.com

hugh-pemberton.bsky.social
Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 20d
"The problem for the government is that, having identified the [Brexit] problem, it does not have proposals to make a significant change to the UK’s economic relationship with the EU."
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/rach...
Rachel Reeves cannot start to blame Brexit now for her economic fix | Institute for Government
Why is the government talking about Brexit and the economy again?
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk

hugh-pemberton.bsky.social
Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · 26d
As the average age of Conservative voters rises inexorably towards death and the party spurns the centre ground in favour of a journey to far-right irrelevance, Conservatives would do well to read this concise and insightful speech by John Major (h/t @stephenkb.bsky.social)
Sir John Major’s Remarks at Conservative Party Lunch – 28 October 2025 – The Rt. Hon. Sir John Major KG CH
johnmajorarchive.org.uk

hugh-pemberton.bsky.social
Hugh Pemberton @hugh-pemberton.bsky.social · Oct 26
Oof. Chris Giles on Laffer et al: "a curious mixture of ... voodoo policies more extreme than those discredited by the 1980s Reagan administration and multiple examples of the bankruptcy of ideas that led the Conservative government to be defeated in the 2024 general election" on.ft.com/3J8FRHN