Tim Leunig
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timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig
@timleunig.bsky.social
5.3K followers 140 following 400 posts

Policy thoughts: http://timleunig.substack.com Chief Economist Nesta, Director Econ PublicFirst, Vis Prof LSE Sch Public Policy, Vis Fellow Inst for Govt

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Timothy Charles Leunig is an economist at the London School of Economics's Department of Economic History. After a long career as a special advisor, he became a director at the economic consultants Public First. .. more

Economics 62%
Political science 13%
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timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig @timleunig.bsky.social · 14h
Even by his own high standards, this piece but @stephenkb.bsky.social is very, very good.
stephenkb.bsky.social Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 14h
Ultimately the minimum wage is a brilliant tool, but it can’t compensate for “we haven’t built any housing”, “we have cut cash transfers to the bone” and “all the third spaces have been cut to pay for social care”.
The minimum wage is not a cure all — we’re asking too much of business
Politicians spend too much time uttering cheap rhetoric about cheap labour
www.ft.com

Reposted by Paul Davies, Stephen Evans, Tim Leunig

stephenkb.bsky.social
Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 14h
Ultimately the minimum wage is a brilliant tool, but it can’t compensate for “we haven’t built any housing”, “we have cut cash transfers to the bone” and “all the third spaces have been cut to pay for social care”.
The minimum wage is not a cure all — we’re asking too much of business
Politicians spend too much time uttering cheap rhetoric about cheap labour
www.ft.com

timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig @timleunig.bsky.social · 1d
It's Budget Week - so this week I have set out in my substack the one big thing I am looking for - timleunig.substack.com/p/what-shoul... (£/free trial)
What should the Chancellor do this week?
If I had only one wish, this is what it would be...
timleunig.substack.com

timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig @timleunig.bsky.social · 1d
Good FT summary by MalcolmMoore on @johnfingleton.bsky.social review of why nuclear is so expensive to build, and never gets built. Same is true for housing. Solution: Do fewer surveys, spend more on the environment and build more! www.ft.com/content/467b...
UK is costliest country to build new nuclear power, government review warns
Task force calls for super regulator to seize control of sprawling bureaucracy
www.ft.com

timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig @timleunig.bsky.social · 4d
Particularly fine article by @tomwhipple.bsky.social - www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
We’ll need good data next time or lockdown arguments multiply
At the start of the pandemic two professors, Martin Landray and Peter Horby, did something that should have been banal but was also rare: they tested drugs
www.thetimes.com

Reposted by Neil Lee

timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig @timleunig.bsky.social · 6d
The relative tax treatment of the employed and the self employed is simply not fair. Action should be taken.
resolutionfoundation.org Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 6d
Taxes on the typical salary are now 55% higher than on self-employment income.

The effective tax rate for a self-employed worker equivalent to the median employee in 2025-26 was the second lowest in 50 years, behind only 2024-25 ⤵️ buff.ly/4ppe7Q8
Chart showing total Income Tax and National Insurance as a share of labour cost: UK excluding Scotland

timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig @timleunig.bsky.social · 6d
Cuting VAT on fuel is a bad policy for so many reasons. If @teamlabouruk.bsky.social / Rachel Reeves chooses this option we will know that this is not a serious government.
resolutionfoundation.org Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 6d
How can the Government help families with high energy bills?

Jonny Marshall explains why cutting VAT from bills would *not* be the best approach.

Catch up on the full discussion to find out how the Government can cut costs for three-in-four households ⤵️ buff.ly/aA5q2H3

Reposted by Tim Leunig

resolutionfoundation.org
Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 6d
How can the Government help families with high energy bills?

Jonny Marshall explains why cutting VAT from bills would *not* be the best approach.

Catch up on the full discussion to find out how the Government can cut costs for three-in-four households ⤵️ buff.ly/aA5q2H3

Reposted by Tim Leunig

resolutionfoundation.org
Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 6d
Taxes on the typical salary are now 55% higher than on self-employment income.

The effective tax rate for a self-employed worker equivalent to the median employee in 2025-26 was the second lowest in 50 years, behind only 2024-25 ⤵️ buff.ly/4ppe7Q8
Chart showing total Income Tax and National Insurance as a share of labour cost: UK excluding Scotland

Reposted by Tim Leunig

edwardluce.bsky.social
Edward Luce @edwardluce.bsky.social · 7d
New free link on.ft.com/4r7ILgO

timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig @timleunig.bsky.social · 8d
Has any government ever taken notice of a knight threatening to return their knighthood?
jkaconductor.bsky.social John Andrews @jkaconductor.bsky.social · 8d
Peter Maxwell-Davies once remarked that the great thing about having a Knighthood was that if the government did something vile, you could publicly threaten to give it back.

Reposted by Tim Leunig

hetanshah.bsky.social
Hetan Shah @hetanshah.bsky.social · 8d
On any average day in the last 35 years, about 115,000 people left extreme poverty behind. But based on current trends, progress against extreme poverty will come to a halt.

Important slow news story on @ourworldindata.org

ourworldindata.org/end-progress...
Chart: Total population living in extreme poverty by world region, 1990 to 2040 - projected to be flat Extreme poverty is defined as living below the International Poverty Line of $3 per day. This data is adjusted for inflation and differences in living costs between countries. Projections from 2026 to 2030 are based on growth forecasts from the World Bank and the IMF. From 2031 onward, projections are based on the growth rates observed in the period 2015-2024.

Reposted by Tim Leunig

jkaconductor.bsky.social
John Andrews @jkaconductor.bsky.social · 8d
Peter Maxwell-Davies once remarked that the great thing about having a Knighthood was that if the government did something vile, you could publicly threaten to give it back.

Reposted by Ben H. Ansell, Steve Peers, Alison Phipps , and 5 more

sundersays.bsky.social
Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 8d
The Home Secretary says "we have become the destination of choice in Europe, clearly visible to every people smuggler and would-be illegal migrant across the world"

That is a factually untrue claim: the Home Office shows that the UK is fifth, getting 1/10 claims, while Germany gets 1/5 claims

timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig @timleunig.bsky.social · 8d
Over the last couple of years I have produced policy ideas on a wide range of topics. This week I propose two near costless ideas that would improve air safety. @boeingdefence.bsky.social @airbus.com timleunig.substack.com/p/how-to-mak... (Free to read)
How to make flying (even) safer
Technology can be our friend
timleunig.substack.com

timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig @timleunig.bsky.social · 11d
Hence my preference for a qualitative fiscal assessment...
samfr.bsky.social Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 11d
This has always been been argument against our fiscal framework. You need some kind of debt rule but this kind of last minute flailing around is toxic for policy development.
duncanweldon.bsky.social Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 11d
I know it’s always like this. But one striking thing from the budget kite flying and kite pulling back in, is how major policy decisions are constantly being buffeted around by iterative forecast changes.
All feels a bit of a silly way to be making major economic policy & political decisions.

timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig @timleunig.bsky.social · 11d
Indicative that councils are not very good at being capitalist entrepreneurs?
jamesomalley.co.uk James O'Malley @jamesomalley.co.uk · 11d
This feels indicative of… something.

Opened a year or two ago in a struggling town, council paid for a capital investment to renew the historic market…. Now the operator can’t afford to do business and is closing down.

www.kentonline.co.uk/gravesend/ne...
Market to close after operator steps down
A market is to close after the operators pulled out due to running costs hitting “record levels”.
www.kentonline.co.uk

Reposted by Tim Leunig

jamesomalley.co.uk
James O'Malley @jamesomalley.co.uk · 11d
This feels indicative of… something.

Opened a year or two ago in a struggling town, council paid for a capital investment to renew the historic market…. Now the operator can’t afford to do business and is closing down.

www.kentonline.co.uk/gravesend/ne...
Market to close after operator steps down
A market is to close after the operators pulled out due to running costs hitting “record levels”.
www.kentonline.co.uk

Reposted by Tim Leunig

schoolsweek.bsky.social
Schools Week @schoolsweek.bsky.social · 11d
The government hopes to launch an 'evidence-based' maths programme to improve numeracy outcomes for children in as many as 5,000 early years settings

schoolsweek.co.uk/5-4m-scheme-...
£5.4m maths programme to boost early years numeracy outcomes
The government hopes to launch an 'evidence-based maths programme in 'at least 5,000 settings' to improve numeracy outcomes for children in early years
schoolsweek.co.uk

Reposted by Albert Weale, Ben Barr, Tim Leunig

chrisgiles.ft.com
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 11d
Want some good news about the UK economy for once...levels of GDP (and forecasts) keep getting revised up...

Reposted by Tim Leunig

chadbourn.bsky.social
Mark Chadbourn @chadbourn.bsky.social · 11d
Yesterday Ukraine blew up the Novorossiysk oil refinery, which is still burning furiously. Today Russia has been forced to suspend all exports - 2.2 million barrels a day.

That sound you now hear is the Russian economy burning.
D: Reuters News Q = Ukrainian attack halts oil exports from Russia's Novo, affecting 2% of global supply, sources say By Reuters November 14, 2025 5:20 PM GMT+1 • Updated 1 hour ago

Reposted by Tim Leunig

samfr.bsky.social
Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 11d
This has always been been argument against our fiscal framework. You need some kind of debt rule but this kind of last minute flailing around is toxic for policy development.
duncanweldon.bsky.social Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 11d
I know it’s always like this. But one striking thing from the budget kite flying and kite pulling back in, is how major policy decisions are constantly being buffeted around by iterative forecast changes.
All feels a bit of a silly way to be making major economic policy & political decisions.

Reposted by Martin McKee, Will Jennings, Steve Peers , and 10 more

timbale.bsky.social
Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 11d
Read 'em and weep. (www.nber.org/system/files...)
This paper examines the impact of the UK's decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) in 2016. Using almost a decade of data since the referendum, we combine simulations based on macro data with estimates derived from micro data collected through our Decision Maker Panel survey. These estimates suggest that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time. We estimate that investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%. These large negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process. Comparing these with contemporary forecasts – providing a rare macro example to complement the burgeoning microliterature of social science predictions – shows that these forecasts were accurate over a 5-year horizon, but they underestimated the impact over a decade.

timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig @timleunig.bsky.social · 11d
That sounds very plausible. We saw the same with computing. Long lag from invention to adoption. Second long lag from adoption to productivity effects.

Reposted by Tim Leunig

robblackie.bsky.social
Rob Blackie @robblackie.bsky.social · 11d
cc @gilesyb.bsky.social @timleunig.bsky.social

Reposted by Tim Leunig

markpackuk.bsky.social
Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 12d
Why does it take the state five years to do something volunteers have to do in a month?
Why does it take the state five years to do something volunteers have to do in a month?
Welcome
buff.ly

timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig @timleunig.bsky.social · 12d
100% this. FWIW I think a single earner on minimum wage should be able to buy a cheap terraced house in Chatham, as was the case when I was a kid, growing up there, in that sort of family. Build more f***ing houses! More power to @stephenkb.bsky.social
stephenkb.bsky.social Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 12d
Anyway: both the state and private developers need to build at far greater rates, the default aim should be 'a dual earner couple on average incomes can live in non-crowded conditions and raise a family', and the model family *for policymakers* should be three for obvious reasons.

timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig @timleunig.bsky.social · 12d
Serious economists think that the cost of Brexit is bigger than the OBR say. 6% of £3000bn is £180bn, about £500m a DAY.
archiehall.bsky.social Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 12d
Synthetic controls with a heavy weight on the US always worry me a little, but this is a careful bit of work from Nick Bloom and co with (as I see it) two big implications

1. They put the Brexit hit to GDP at 6-8%..!
2. Their measure of the damage hasn't bottomed out yet

www.nber.org/papers/w34459

Reposted by Tim Leunig

archiehall.bsky.social
Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 12d
Synthetic controls with a heavy weight on the US always worry me a little, but this is a careful bit of work from Nick Bloom and co with (as I see it) two big implications

1. They put the Brexit hit to GDP at 6-8%..!
2. Their measure of the damage hasn't bottomed out yet

www.nber.org/papers/w34459

Reposted by Tim Leunig

stephenkb.bsky.social
Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 12d
Anyway: both the state and private developers need to build at far greater rates, the default aim should be 'a dual earner couple on average incomes can live in non-crowded conditions and raise a family', and the model family *for policymakers* should be three for obvious reasons.