Ilari Ilmakunnas
@ilmakunnasilari.bsky.social
Senior researcher @ Finnish Centre for Pensions. PhD. Poverty, Social Policy, Policy Evaluation, Life Course, Retirement. Member of Evaluation Working Group of Finnish social security reform. Orienteering. https://sites.google.com/view/ilariilmakunnas
Pinned
Kuvailevan tutkimuksen tekeminen ei poista tarvetta pohtia muuttujien välisiä suhteita (kirjoitussarjan 2. osa)
Usein sosiaalitieteellisissä tutkimuksissa kuvataan, kuinka tutkimus on kuvaileva ja pyrkii vain havainnollistamaan muuttujien välisiä yhteyksiä syy-seuraussuhteiden sijasta. Vaikka tämä pitääkin u…
ilmakunnas.wordpress.com
Jatkoin kirjoitussarjaani blogin puolella. Tällä kertaa raapaisen pintaa koskien sitä, mitä ongelmia syntyy, kun ei ole pohdittu tarkasti, mitä muuttujia on lisätty regressiomalliin. ilmakunnas.wordpress.com/2025/05/23/k...
Reposted by Ilari Ilmakunnas
The stuff you find when you actually read the RCTs in a systematic review...
This paper is one of the foundational studies on vitamin D to prevent respiratory infections in kids. Cited 1,400 times as per Google Scholar.
This paper is one of the foundational studies on vitamin D to prevent respiratory infections in kids. Cited 1,400 times as per Google Scholar.
November 26, 2025 at 9:15 PM
The stuff you find when you actually read the RCTs in a systematic review...
This paper is one of the foundational studies on vitamin D to prevent respiratory infections in kids. Cited 1,400 times as per Google Scholar.
This paper is one of the foundational studies on vitamin D to prevent respiratory infections in kids. Cited 1,400 times as per Google Scholar.
Reposted by Ilari Ilmakunnas
And it has indeed come to pass.
Trump in a room with a very charismatic person results in like half a day of Trump agreeing with everything that person said, so this has the potential to be very, very funny.
Trump says he’s meeting with “communist” Mamdani at the White House on Friday
November 21, 2025 at 9:15 PM
And it has indeed come to pass.
Reposted by Ilari Ilmakunnas
So there you have it, twin study estimates were greatly inflated, and molecular data sets the record straight. I walk through possible counter-arguments, but ultimately the uncomfortable truth is that genes contribute to traits much less than we always thought.
November 21, 2025 at 10:34 PM
So there you have it, twin study estimates were greatly inflated, and molecular data sets the record straight. I walk through possible counter-arguments, but ultimately the uncomfortable truth is that genes contribute to traits much less than we always thought.
Reposted by Ilari Ilmakunnas
I wrote a little bit about the "missing heritability" question and several recent studies that have brought it to a close. A short 🧵
The missing heritability question is now (mostly) answered
Not with a bang but with a whimper
theinfinitesimal.substack.com
November 21, 2025 at 10:34 PM
I wrote a little bit about the "missing heritability" question and several recent studies that have brought it to a close. A short 🧵
Reposted by Ilari Ilmakunnas
“What do you think is the ideal number of children for a family to have?” Two different statistical measurement challenges arise from this one question on the General Social Survey.
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/21/w...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/21/w...
“What do you think is the ideal number of children for a family to have?” Two different statistical measurement challenges arise from this one question on the General Social Survey. | Statistical Mo...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
November 21, 2025 at 3:54 PM
“What do you think is the ideal number of children for a family to have?” Two different statistical measurement challenges arise from this one question on the General Social Survey.
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/21/w...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/21/w...
Reposted by Ilari Ilmakunnas
Really excited to get this rolling! I’ve recently started as Media Editor for the Social Policy Association’s journals, and rebooting the Social Policy Blog is one of the highlights. Lots more coming soon — watch this space! Follow it both here and subscribe on socialpolicyblog.co.uk.
We’re now live on Bluesky! And we're back online and preparing for a full re-launch next week!
We’re the companion blog to the SPA's journals — Journal of Social Policy, Social Policy & Society, and Journal of International & Comparative Social Policy.
Follow us here and at socialpolicyblog.co.uk
We’re the companion blog to the SPA's journals — Journal of Social Policy, Social Policy & Society, and Journal of International & Comparative Social Policy.
Follow us here and at socialpolicyblog.co.uk
Social Policy Blog
Companion Blog to the Journal of Social Policy, Social Policy & Society, and the Journal of International & Comparative Social Policy
socialpolicyblog.co.uk
November 21, 2025 at 4:51 PM
Really excited to get this rolling! I’ve recently started as Media Editor for the Social Policy Association’s journals, and rebooting the Social Policy Blog is one of the highlights. Lots more coming soon — watch this space! Follow it both here and subscribe on socialpolicyblog.co.uk.
Reposted by Ilari Ilmakunnas
I made this error once in a reply to a critique.
I thought that mismeasurement of the exposure would attenuate impacts. It does in some cases, but not always (and perhaps less often than I thought).
I thought that mismeasurement of the exposure would attenuate impacts. It does in some cases, but not always (and perhaps less often than I thought).
This paper makes the claim that their DAG may be incorrect, but errors can only downwardly bias their estimate of interest. That's just flat wrong.
November 19, 2025 at 8:59 PM
I made this error once in a reply to a critique.
I thought that mismeasurement of the exposure would attenuate impacts. It does in some cases, but not always (and perhaps less often than I thought).
I thought that mismeasurement of the exposure would attenuate impacts. It does in some cases, but not always (and perhaps less often than I thought).
Reposted by Ilari Ilmakunnas
Olen kommentoinut hyvinvointialueiden rahoitusmallia pitkään. Tänään Lääkärilehdessä julkaistu katsauksemme kokoaa tutkimusnäytön mallin kannustinvaikutuksista ja vaihtoehdoista sen kehittämiseen, erityisesti verotusoikeuden ja kannustinpalkkioiden avulla. laakarilehti.fi/kirjautumine... (€)
November 7, 2025 at 10:44 AM
Olen kommentoinut hyvinvointialueiden rahoitusmallia pitkään. Tänään Lääkärilehdessä julkaistu katsauksemme kokoaa tutkimusnäytön mallin kannustinvaikutuksista ja vaihtoehdoista sen kehittämiseen, erityisesti verotusoikeuden ja kannustinpalkkioiden avulla. laakarilehti.fi/kirjautumine... (€)
Reposted by Ilari Ilmakunnas
We are looking presentations for 2026 ETK Pension Research Forum (online event). Please consider submitting a presentation proposal related to pensions, retirement, careers and population ageing. We provide top commentators and wide range of audience. For more information: www.etk.fi/en/topical-i...
ETK Pension Research Forum on 16 March 2026 – Open call for presentations - Finnish Centre for Pensions
The ETK Pension Research Forum provides a joint forum for topical pension research. For this second online ETK Pension Research Forum on 16 March 2026 we invite presentations of research on pensions…
www.etk.fi
November 10, 2025 at 2:42 PM
We are looking presentations for 2026 ETK Pension Research Forum (online event). Please consider submitting a presentation proposal related to pensions, retirement, careers and population ageing. We provide top commentators and wide range of audience. For more information: www.etk.fi/en/topical-i...
Reposted by Ilari Ilmakunnas
I've been struggling to articulate this point, but this does it well. If we care about omitted variable bias (or collider bias, or model fit, or theory...) then it makes no sense to run a regression on every possible set of variables.
Billions of regressions ≠ robustness.
My new PNAS Letter shows how unjustified models can drown out justified ones — and why thoughtful model selection matters👇
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
My new PNAS Letter shows how unjustified models can drown out justified ones — and why thoughtful model selection matters👇
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
November 11, 2025 at 7:12 PM
I've been struggling to articulate this point, but this does it well. If we care about omitted variable bias (or collider bias, or model fit, or theory...) then it makes no sense to run a regression on every possible set of variables.
We are looking presentations for 2026 ETK Pension Research Forum (online event). Please consider submitting a presentation proposal related to pensions, retirement, careers and population ageing. We provide top commentators and wide range of audience. For more information: www.etk.fi/en/topical-i...
ETK Pension Research Forum on 16 March 2026 – Open call for presentations - Finnish Centre for Pensions
The ETK Pension Research Forum provides a joint forum for topical pension research. For this second online ETK Pension Research Forum on 16 March 2026 we invite presentations of research on pensions…
www.etk.fi
November 10, 2025 at 2:42 PM
We are looking presentations for 2026 ETK Pension Research Forum (online event). Please consider submitting a presentation proposal related to pensions, retirement, careers and population ageing. We provide top commentators and wide range of audience. For more information: www.etk.fi/en/topical-i...
Reposted by Ilari Ilmakunnas
![As of mid 2025, a PubMed search for ‘Mendelian randomization’ in the title or abstract returns around 16,000 results since its first occurrence in 2003. Manual inspection of the hundred or so most recent MR papers in the literature indicates that the large majority of these papers show signs of being low quality, often reporting on relationships of variables that have little justification to be analysed [4], failing to discuss the gene-environment equivalence principle to justify the study design [1], failure to use STROBE-MR reporting guidelines [5, 6], and often with clear methodological errors [7, 8].](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:3zyo4iakhqs47bttjalqgbk7/bafkreiaiycu3ti6dc5d6bo3etj4hvel42ucx2dak3m2u4ygbfd3lmvwe6y@jpeg)
Reposted by Ilari Ilmakunnas
Tuore tutkimus osoittaa, että osittainen vanhuuseläke ei kovinkaan usein tarkoita merkittävää lisätuloa. Tätä selittävät työmarkkina-asema ja sen kehitys.
Lue lisää blogistamme: www.sustageable.fi/osittainen-v...
@ilmakunnasilari.bsky.social @elaketurvakeskus.bsky.social @strateginen.bsky.social
Lue lisää blogistamme: www.sustageable.fi/osittainen-v...
@ilmakunnasilari.bsky.social @elaketurvakeskus.bsky.social @strateginen.bsky.social
Osittainen varhennettu vanhuuseläke ei yleensä muuta merkittävästi eläkkeen ottaneen tulotasoa - SustAgeable
Osittainen varhennettu vanhuuseläke on muodostunut suosituksi. Ei ole kuitenkaan kovinkaan paljon tietoa siitä, miten eläkettä käytetään. Selvitimme ensimmäistä kertaa, miten nettotulot muuttuvat osit...
www.sustageable.fi
November 5, 2025 at 9:48 AM
Tuore tutkimus osoittaa, että osittainen vanhuuseläke ei kovinkaan usein tarkoita merkittävää lisätuloa. Tätä selittävät työmarkkina-asema ja sen kehitys.
Lue lisää blogistamme: www.sustageable.fi/osittainen-v...
@ilmakunnasilari.bsky.social @elaketurvakeskus.bsky.social @strateginen.bsky.social
Lue lisää blogistamme: www.sustageable.fi/osittainen-v...
@ilmakunnasilari.bsky.social @elaketurvakeskus.bsky.social @strateginen.bsky.social
Selvitimme, miten ove näkyy tulotasossa, kun huomioidaan kaikki muut tulonlähteet ja maksetut verot. Tarkastelimme vuonna 2021 osittaisen varhennetun vanhuuseläkkeen ottaneiden tulokehitystä ja -rakennetta ennen ja jälkeen eläkkeen. www.julkari.fi/handle/10024...
Miten nettotulot muuttuvat osittaiselle varhennetulle vanhuuseläkkeelle siirtymisen seurauksena?
www.julkari.fi
November 5, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Selvitimme, miten ove näkyy tulotasossa, kun huomioidaan kaikki muut tulonlähteet ja maksetut verot. Tarkastelimme vuonna 2021 osittaisen varhennetun vanhuuseläkkeen ottaneiden tulokehitystä ja -rakennetta ennen ja jälkeen eläkkeen. www.julkari.fi/handle/10024...
Reposted by Ilari Ilmakunnas
Next week, Nov 10, we organize a small conference on social mobility at the EUI. We collaborate with Georgetown University. The meeting is in person, but if you want to receive the recording, you can register here. global.georgetown.edu/events/works...
Workshop on Intergenerational Persistence and Inequality
How do inequalities persist—or change—across generations? Why do some families and communities experience enduring advantages while others face structural barriers to mobility? This event will bring t...
global.georgetown.edu
November 4, 2025 at 8:41 AM
Next week, Nov 10, we organize a small conference on social mobility at the EUI. We collaborate with Georgetown University. The meeting is in person, but if you want to receive the recording, you can register here. global.georgetown.edu/events/works...
Reposted by Ilari Ilmakunnas
Steffen Wamsler and I have a new paper in @ejprjournal.bsky.social !
We show that citizens who perceive their in-group to be disadvantaged express lower support for democracy and higher openness towards authoritarian alternatives!
tinyurl.com/y78hj253 @espol-lab.bsky.social @lifbi.bsky.social
We show that citizens who perceive their in-group to be disadvantaged express lower support for democracy and higher openness towards authoritarian alternatives!
tinyurl.com/y78hj253 @espol-lab.bsky.social @lifbi.bsky.social
Democracy and disadvantage: How subjective group relative deprivation undermines democratic support | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
Democracy and disadvantage: How subjective group relative deprivation undermines democratic support
tinyurl.com
October 9, 2025 at 5:51 PM
Steffen Wamsler and I have a new paper in @ejprjournal.bsky.social !
We show that citizens who perceive their in-group to be disadvantaged express lower support for democracy and higher openness towards authoritarian alternatives!
tinyurl.com/y78hj253 @espol-lab.bsky.social @lifbi.bsky.social
We show that citizens who perceive their in-group to be disadvantaged express lower support for democracy and higher openness towards authoritarian alternatives!
tinyurl.com/y78hj253 @espol-lab.bsky.social @lifbi.bsky.social
Reposted by Ilari Ilmakunnas
I have written are review of "The Social Genome: The New Science of Nature and Nurture" by Dalton Conley
Pre-print on @socarxiv.bsky.social here:
osf.io/preprints/so...
I highly recommend it, particularly to graduate students
The reasons👇
Pre-print on @socarxiv.bsky.social here:
osf.io/preprints/so...
I highly recommend it, particularly to graduate students
The reasons👇
osf.io
November 3, 2025 at 7:58 AM
I have written are review of "The Social Genome: The New Science of Nature and Nurture" by Dalton Conley
Pre-print on @socarxiv.bsky.social here:
osf.io/preprints/so...
I highly recommend it, particularly to graduate students
The reasons👇
Pre-print on @socarxiv.bsky.social here:
osf.io/preprints/so...
I highly recommend it, particularly to graduate students
The reasons👇
Reposted by Ilari Ilmakunnas
There still seems to be a lot of confusion about significance testing in psych. No, p-values *don’t* become useless at large N. This flawed point also used to be framed as "too much power". But power isn't the problem – it's 1) unbalanced error rates and 2) the (lack of a) SESOI. 1/ >
But here's, the thing, p values and significance become useless at such large sample sizes. When you're dividing the coefficient by the SE and the sample size is in the tens of thousands, EVERYTHING IS SIGNIFICANT. All you're testing is whether the coefficient is different than zero.
October 31, 2025 at 8:13 AM
There still seems to be a lot of confusion about significance testing in psych. No, p-values *don’t* become useless at large N. This flawed point also used to be framed as "too much power". But power isn't the problem – it's 1) unbalanced error rates and 2) the (lack of a) SESOI. 1/ >
Reposted by Ilari Ilmakunnas
Posting is correlated with affective polarization:
😡 The most partisan users — those who love their party and despise the other — are more likely to post about politics
🥊 The result? A loud angry minority dominates online politics, which itself can drive polarization (see doi.org/10.1073/pnas...)
😡 The most partisan users — those who love their party and despise the other — are more likely to post about politics
🥊 The result? A loud angry minority dominates online politics, which itself can drive polarization (see doi.org/10.1073/pnas...)
October 30, 2025 at 8:09 AM
Posting is correlated with affective polarization:
😡 The most partisan users — those who love their party and despise the other — are more likely to post about politics
🥊 The result? A loud angry minority dominates online politics, which itself can drive polarization (see doi.org/10.1073/pnas...)
😡 The most partisan users — those who love their party and despise the other — are more likely to post about politics
🥊 The result? A loud angry minority dominates online politics, which itself can drive polarization (see doi.org/10.1073/pnas...)
Reposted by Ilari Ilmakunnas
Tutkimus: Asunnon myyntitappion välttely vähentää asunnon vaihtamista. 🏠📉
Samalla muuttaminen vähenee, ja kotitaloudet asuvat useammin elämäntilanteeseensa huonosti sopivissa asunnoissa.
Lisätietoja:
vatt.fi/-/tutkimus-a...
@teemulyy.bsky.social
Samalla muuttaminen vähenee, ja kotitaloudet asuvat useammin elämäntilanteeseensa huonosti sopivissa asunnoissa.
Lisätietoja:
vatt.fi/-/tutkimus-a...
@teemulyy.bsky.social
Tutkimus: Asunnon myyntitappion välttely vähentää asunnon vaihtamista
vatt.fi
October 30, 2025 at 7:05 AM
Tutkimus: Asunnon myyntitappion välttely vähentää asunnon vaihtamista. 🏠📉
Samalla muuttaminen vähenee, ja kotitaloudet asuvat useammin elämäntilanteeseensa huonosti sopivissa asunnoissa.
Lisätietoja:
vatt.fi/-/tutkimus-a...
@teemulyy.bsky.social
Samalla muuttaminen vähenee, ja kotitaloudet asuvat useammin elämäntilanteeseensa huonosti sopivissa asunnoissa.
Lisätietoja:
vatt.fi/-/tutkimus-a...
@teemulyy.bsky.social
Reposted by Ilari Ilmakunnas
A widely held view is that the Gini coefficient is not decomposable by subgroups. This paper proposes an axiomatic framework that ensures well-behaved within and between-group terms under which the Gini is decomposable with a novel and unique formula. buff.ly/XdnzG6F
October 24, 2025 at 1:05 PM
A widely held view is that the Gini coefficient is not decomposable by subgroups. This paper proposes an axiomatic framework that ensures well-behaved within and between-group terms under which the Gini is decomposable with a novel and unique formula. buff.ly/XdnzG6F
Reposted by Ilari Ilmakunnas
Reposted by Ilari Ilmakunnas
Finland has a goal to be net zero GHG emissions by 2035.
Emissions were declining, the LULUCF removals were strong, the plan was looking good, but then LULUCF collapsed.
Net GHG emissions have actually risen over the last decade!
www.treasuryfinland.fi/investor-rel...
1/
Emissions were declining, the LULUCF removals were strong, the plan was looking good, but then LULUCF collapsed.
Net GHG emissions have actually risen over the last decade!
www.treasuryfinland.fi/investor-rel...
1/
October 23, 2025 at 7:54 AM
Finland has a goal to be net zero GHG emissions by 2035.
Emissions were declining, the LULUCF removals were strong, the plan was looking good, but then LULUCF collapsed.
Net GHG emissions have actually risen over the last decade!
www.treasuryfinland.fi/investor-rel...
1/
Emissions were declining, the LULUCF removals were strong, the plan was looking good, but then LULUCF collapsed.
Net GHG emissions have actually risen over the last decade!
www.treasuryfinland.fi/investor-rel...
1/
Reposted by Ilari Ilmakunnas
Erinomainen analyyttinen kirjoitus tutkimuksen tekemisestä etujärjestöjen tutkimusorganisaatioissa sekä objektiivisen tiedon ja yhteisen todellisuuskäsityksen rapautumisen vaaroista intressien ja politiikan puristuksessa. www.vesavihriala.fi/2025/10/kene...
Kenen leipää syöt, sen lauluja laulat?
Björn Wahlroos uhraa tuoreessa kirjassaan ”Nurkkahuone” pari sivua Elinkeinoelämän tutkimuslaitoksen Etlan johdon vaihtumiselle vuonna 2019. Hän toteaa, että eroni toimitusjohtajan
www.vesavihriala.fi
October 18, 2025 at 7:14 AM
Erinomainen analyyttinen kirjoitus tutkimuksen tekemisestä etujärjestöjen tutkimusorganisaatioissa sekä objektiivisen tiedon ja yhteisen todellisuuskäsityksen rapautumisen vaaroista intressien ja politiikan puristuksessa. www.vesavihriala.fi/2025/10/kene...
