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irgetsreal.bsky.social
@irgetsreal.bsky.social
490 followers 610 following 250 posts
Professor of International Relations, Georgetown. Former DoD and Senate staff. Foreign policy, political science, case study methods, environment, snark.
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irgetsreal.bsky.social
Trump contributed to up to 30,000 killed and 300,000 wounded by encouraging and then abandoning Iranian protesters. Khamenei was as ruthless as Trump was feckless.

Like US in Hungary in 1956, Trump is Roosevelt in reverse: big talk, small stick.

www.nytimes.com/2026/02/04/o...
Opinion | In Counting the Dead in Iran, a Picture of Ferocity
www.nytimes.com
February 4, 2026 at 11:02 AM
irgetsreal.bsky.social
Hard to top Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov making his cabinet clap as he lifted a weight bar, but forcing people to pretend to like the Melania movie is the ultimate dominance move.
abenewman.bsky.social Abe Newman @abenewman.bsky.social · 11d
1/Neo-royalism is about $/economic influence but it’s also about creating a top down revolution in culture. it is about pecking orders and status. Last night premier was everything all rolled up into one.
youtu.be/tqrZHhL3z6A
First Lady calls Trump ‘America’s director’ during world premiere of ‘Melania’
YouTube video by LiveNOW from FOX
youtu.be
January 30, 2026 at 2:10 PM
Reposted
tom.medsky.social
Downfall Bovino Edition. You're welcome.
January 27, 2026 at 5:36 AM
Reposted
thefarce.org
Cox, Coates, Serwer. Gen X throwing our best writers at the moment.

(Sorry, Adam. We're claiming you.)
anamariecox.bsky.social Ana Marie Cox @anamariecox.bsky.social · 14d
My report from Minneapolis, about the things you'll never see. newrepublic.com/article/2057...
When I was being driven around the Cities in lightly falling, fluffy snow, the whole scene was rendered in real-life grayscale. I had a shameful, selfish thought: This is the opposite of a color lead. My editor sent me all the way out here for this? I thought of all the useless video I had taken, and then of the terabytes more of data on a thousand other phones. All the interactions that didn’t escalate, or even turn out to be ICE action. All those videos are evidence of the terror, too—evidence of the wearying watchfulness that an occupation wrests from people. How occupations colonize memory as much as space. The shots of ICE agents leaving a scene, of storefronts that aren’t blasted through, of apartments whose doors remain whole—all of that is abundant but unaccessible proof of what can be accomplished without leadership, just community and will.
January 27, 2026 at 3:14 PM
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akivamcohen.bsky.social
Understand that 370 days ago even bringing a motion like this would probably have been treated as sanctionably frivolous

Today it was granted ex parte
dell.bsky.social dell cameron @dell.bsky.social · 16d
A federal judge issues a restraining order against the feds, barring them from "destroying or altering evidence"

storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
Defendants, together with their employees, agents, and anyone acting in concert with them, are ENJOINED from destroying or altering evidence related to the fatal shooting involving federal officers that took place in or around 26th Street and Nicollet Avenue in Minneapolis on January 24, 2026, including but not limited to evidence that Defendants and those working on their behalf removed from the scene and/or evidence that Defendants have taken into their exclusive custody.
January 25, 2026 at 5:28 AM
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zachinflight.bsky.social
15 years ago I borrowed a bulletproof vest from a reporter so I could report from a war zone. I held onto it after I returned.

Last week the reporter finally asked for it back because he is headed to Minneapolis.
January 25, 2026 at 10:36 AM
irgetsreal.bsky.social
Greenland has become Trump’s great white whale and we are all on the Pequod.
January 20, 2026 at 12:03 PM
irgetsreal.bsky.social
In 1910, British General Wilson asked the French General Foch “How many British soldiers would you need to defend against Germany?”

Foch replied “A single British soldier—and we will see to it that he is killed” (which would bring Britain into the war).

Tripwire time in Greenland.
peterstefanovic.bsky.social Peter Stefanovic @peterstefanovic.bsky.social · 27d
BREAKING: The UK is sending a single military officer to Greenland at the request of Denmark to participate in a multi-nation exercise
January 14, 2026 at 11:20 PM
Reposted
dziblatt.bsky.social
Excellent essay . Also : Why we study comparative politics
adambonica.bsky.social Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 28d
If there's one empirical insight I'd want everyone to understand about American politics, it's this:

America's problems are solved problems. Just not here.

What would change if the US simply matched the average of 31 peer democracies? Not Denmark or Norway. Just the middle of the pack. 🧵
Screenshot of a data visualization titled “The Cost of American Exceptionalism,” subtitled “What would change if the U.S. matched the OECD average?” The page explains that each card shows how outcomes would change if the U.S. matched the average of 31 peer democracies. Below, a section labeled “Economy & Inequality” displays eight cards comparing U.S. figures to OECD averages. Highlights include: +$19K per household per year in redistributed income and +$96K in redistributed wealth if the top 1% matched OECD shares; a 71% lower CEO-to-worker pay ratio (from 354× to 101×); 50 million more workers with union coverage; 26 million more people with health insurance; $2.1 trillion saved annually in healthcare spending; $691 less per person per year in prescription drug costs; and intergenerational economic mobility being twice as high. Each card shows the U.S. value alongside the OECD average.
January 13, 2026 at 1:26 PM
irgetsreal.bsky.social
Goldfinger: I plan to destroy Fort Knox with a nuclear weapon, and gold will go up to $4600 an ounce.

Bond: Why don’t you just convince the President to prosecute the Chair of the Fed on false charges? Same result.

G: . . .

B: . . .

G: This mofo is crazy let’s laser him in half.
January 12, 2026 at 2:24 PM
irgetsreal.bsky.social
WH pool photo of today’s meeting of Trump and oil execs
January 9, 2026 at 2:51 PM
irgetsreal.bsky.social
Oil company execs meeting w Trump today to divide up the spoils of Venezuela.

Reminds me of the good old days of imperialism and robber baron capitalism.
January 9, 2026 at 12:05 PM
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sifill.bsky.social
Make it viral.
January 8, 2026 at 3:22 AM
irgetsreal.bsky.social
An insurgency may not arise quickly in Venezuela, but eventually one is likely as all the pieces identified by research are in place:

—strong majority of the populace is angry at their govt and everyone knows it (no preference falsification)
January 8, 2026 at 2:04 PM
irgetsreal.bsky.social
When people invest they drop fantasies about the future, whether about the stability of the climate or of governments.

Insurance prices for properties vulnerable to climate change are up.

Oil company stocks after Trump grabbed Maduro and left his regime intact are not.
January 8, 2026 at 1:31 PM
Reposted
jimgoldgeier.bsky.social
Just got this in the mail and eager to dig in. Jervis would have a lot to say right now! Delighted to have a piece in the volume with @profsaunders.bsky.social
January 5, 2026 at 10:28 PM
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seva.bsky.social
some people love quoting "the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must." That was Athens saying that at the height of its empire. Few of those people seem to remember what happened to Athens the very next year.
January 6, 2026 at 5:14 PM
irgetsreal.bsky.social
Chevron stock is up only 4% since the kidnapping of Maduro. Looks like investors are not at all convinced Venezuela will be a big growth market for them (Exxon up only 1%).

For this Trump trashed America’s international reputation.
January 6, 2026 at 8:59 PM
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kschultz.bsky.social
Apropos current events, I want to tout this paper by @soyounglee.bsky.social showing that discussion of economic benefits can reduce public support for military action. People are skeptical when they think specific groups (e.g., oil companies) will benefit.

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Domestic Distributional Roots of National Interest SOYOUNG LEE Yale University, United States, and Duke University, United States What international issues become national interests worth fighting for, and why? Contrary to conventional wisdom, I argue that issues without clear economic value, such as barren lands, are more likely to be perceived as national interests because they do not benefit any single domestic group. Since who benefits is unclear, politicians have an easier time framing such issues as benefiting the whole nation. I test this argument using survey experiments on the American public. The results show that first, issues providing diffuse benefits to citizens are more likely to be considered national interests than issues providing concentrated benefits to certain domestic groups. Second, issues with clearer economic value are harder to frame as having diffuse benefits because they are more easily associated with specific beneficiaries. This study proposes a new theory of national interest and offers a potential explanation for why people frequently support conflict over issues without obvious benefits.
January 5, 2026 at 1:42 PM
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proftalmadge.bsky.social
US seems to have no plan to deal w/ powerful Venezuelan security forces, who can threaten/thwart political leaders if they comply w/ US demands. Authoritarian politics 101 & major reason US approach could lead to military escalation and/or civil conflict.
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
Venezuela’s Men With Guns Remain the Ultimate Power After Maduro’s Ouster
Diosdado Cabello and Vladimir Padrino command Venezuela’s police and military, and represent a wild card for Trump.
www.wsj.com
January 5, 2026 at 2:05 PM
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profsaunders.bsky.social
🧵Day 3 and we have a new meaning for "running Venezuela," courtesy of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the nation's top diplomat, who is in charge of Venezuela as well as the National Archives. We're going to insist they do what's in the US national interest. Time for some principal-agent theory. 1/
From State Dept transcript of Rubio appearance on This Week w/ George Stephanopolous: SECRETARY RUBIO: Well, we’re not going to judge moving forward based simply on what’s said in press conferences. We want to see action here at the end of the day. Rhetoric is one thing. You see rhetoric for a lot of different reasons. There’s a lot of different reasons why people go on TV and say certain things in these countries, especially 15 hours or 12 hours after the person who used to be in charge of the regime is now in handcuffs and on his way to New York. So what I will say is, moving forward, it’s very simple. We’re not going to be reactive here to statements at press conferences or what people say in a certain interview or what some media post – some media post somewhere. What we are going to react to is very simple: What do you do? Not what you’re saying in public – what happens? What happens next? Do the drugs stop coming? Are the changes made? Is Iran expelled? Is Hizballah no longer able and Iran no longer able to operate against our interests from Venezuela? Does the migration pattern stop? Do the drug trafficking boats end? Do you deal with the ELN and the FARC, two narcoterrorist organizations who control territory and operate with impunity from the territory of Venezuela against the interests of Colombia and the United States? These are the things we want addressed. If they are addressed, that’s how we’ll judge it. If they’re not addressed, that’s how we’ll judge it. QUESTION: And what happens if they’re not addressed?
January 5, 2026 at 1:50 PM
irgetsreal.bsky.social
The Trump-Rubio vision for the future of Venezuela is not polling well.
January 5, 2026 at 1:08 PM
irgetsreal.bsky.social
If you ever wondered what would happen if someone in the “get off my lawn” stage of grouchy dementia had complete control of US foreign policy, well, now you know.
January 5, 2026 at 1:00 PM
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erikvoeten.bsky.social
Six months ago @profmichaelross.bsky.social and I wrote in Foreign Affairs that the US is increasingly behaving like a petrostate. Seems relevant today
erikvoeten.bsky.social Erik Voeten @erikvoeten.bsky.social · Jun 12
I have a new short piece in Foreign Affairs with @profmichaelross.bsky.social arguing that "the United States’ emergence as the world’s leading oil and gas producer is a critical and often neglected element of today’s global disorder." www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Petrostate America
The downsides of energy independence.
www.foreignaffairs.com
January 5, 2026 at 12:54 PM
irgetsreal.bsky.social
“Legitimize” (in last sentence) is not the proper word here. More like “enforce the same bloody repression of the Maduro regime, this time with US backing.”

www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/u...
Trump Plunges the U.S. Into a New Era of Risk in Venezuela
www.nytimes.com
January 5, 2026 at 12:48 PM