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Isaiah Bishop

@isaiahbishop.bsky.social

2.9K followers 5.8K following 23K posts

ML Eng. and econometrics. Lot more left-posting than normal. Some hobby-level finance Regrettably degen trading for the next 3 months, im sorry Views dont reflect my employer

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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 6m

its a great question especially now

Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 25m

Australia seems like a good target, Dont know enough about Uganda. Does it take a while to stand up the byproduct processing facilities or is it super quick

Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 28m

Tom clancy could only write so much, its time to move on

Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 29m

either way i suppose its a little premature

Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 29m

Im trying to imagine which portfolio of countries is more scared of the US than china

Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 34m

putting your critical minerals lifeline with pakistan seems problematic

Reposted by Isaiah Bishop

Alex Turnbull @alexbhturnbull.bsky.social · 36m

Appears US admin used Pakistan as a workaround on rare earths which preciptated the China meltdown @arnabdatta.bsky.social

Pakistan delivers rare earth elements and critical minerals to USSM

Pakistan delivers its first enriched rare earth elements and critical minerals to USSM, marking a milestone for US-Pakistan supply chains.

www.fastmarkets.com

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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 37m

Like no one is using AI loans as collateral for other loans or as something like money. Not saying there couldnt be one, but i think you would struggle to make a case for it on the scale of the mortgage crisis

Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 40m

I love this point, probably pretty big impact on equities but what about the real economy

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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 43m

Pretty much. Although there are signs the bubble is getting more bubbly and more connected. But AI investment doesnt yet have the mortgage crisis-style contagion

Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 44m

Absolutely, but you need to have some concept of contagion. For AI its very not obvious where that is. While for finance, people were talking about it years in advance

Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 1h

BEcause we are taking AI contribution as the fraction of average growth and we've just temporarily lowered average growth, that should overstate is the jist of it

Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 1h

crucially we've done so in a way thats short term, and probably not true over the medium-run.

Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 1h

Basically if you just on purpose nuke a bunch of sectors their contribution to growth goes from say an expected 0.4% to say -.2% a -.6% swing. So lets say that moves us from 2.4 expected to 1.9%. It being 0.6% then we just take fraction 0.6/1.9

Well we've just shrunk the denominator a bunch!

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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 1h

at any given time some sectors are falling and some are flat just because the economy is doing stuff. Not all of them are, but more than usual

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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 1h

The actual article this one cites, is another futurism article citing the FT saying its 40% of GDP growth. Which overcounts its influence a bit if the other sectors are basically flat or falling.

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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 1h

Hmmm, no i don't think so

Yet according to recent estimates, generative AI now accounts for roughly 40 percent of the United States’ gross domestic product. In other words, if the AI spending boom falls apart, it could take down the entire economy with it.

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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 12h

DARPA realizes this process has several spin off techniques that fuel
military research, GDP is 5% higher than baseline

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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 12h

its so good

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Reposted by Isaiah Bishop

☕️ Jeremy Diamond @dmnd.me · 12h

There are plausible explanations for this other than approaching a cap on demand, but 😬

tomtunguz.com/is-token-con...

Is Token Consumption Growth Slowing Down?

Google's AI token processing reaches 1.3 quadrillion monthly tokens in October 2025, but growth decelerates from 250T to 107T per month. What's driving the slowdown?

tomtunguz.com

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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 12h

trailer was so good tho

Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 13h

Lmao okay now we are cooking

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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 13h

I know there are fandoms out there, but a common complaint in my friend group is that none of them are compelling and i agree! Like halsin if you think hes hot, sure.

Gale is just not really that interesting to me generally. I like wyll but eh. Astarion is a whole other thing. Halsin well adjusted

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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 13h

Halsin i think is maybe the only one i somewhat get? but hes just not got that much depth compared to others

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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 13h

i mean this is just normal with regular sex work right?