Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik
@joeboomzag.bsky.social
Pacific Northwest weather/climate forecasts. Website: theconvergencezone.com
Snowpack in Washington and Oregon is so bad that a normal February and March would result in a recovery to just the ~10th percentile of historical years. More in the CZ blog...
theconvergencezone.com/2026/01/19/p...
theconvergencezone.com/2026/01/19/p...
PNW snowpack approaches record lows
As we approach the halfway point of mountain snow season, snowpack remains in poor condition across much of the PNW. The state of the snowpack as measured by SNOTEL stations is often displayed as a…
theconvergencezone.com
January 19, 2026 at 6:16 PM
Snowpack in Washington and Oregon is so bad that a normal February and March would result in a recovery to just the ~10th percentile of historical years. More in the CZ blog...
theconvergencezone.com/2026/01/19/p...
theconvergencezone.com/2026/01/19/p...
The last 5-6 days of T/Td at my house had almost no diurnal cycle while we were stuck under an inversion.
Today the warmth aloft finally mixed down to the ground and the temp is soaring into the mid-50s.
Today the warmth aloft finally mixed down to the ground and the temp is soaring into the mid-50s.
January 16, 2026 at 9:24 PM
The last 5-6 days of T/Td at my house had almost no diurnal cycle while we were stuck under an inversion.
Today the warmth aloft finally mixed down to the ground and the temp is soaring into the mid-50s.
Today the warmth aloft finally mixed down to the ground and the temp is soaring into the mid-50s.
Reposted by Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik
#EarthquakeReport for M 6.0 #Earthquake offshore of #Oregon #USA
Right-lateral strike-slip earthquake along Blanco transform fault
Common location for M 5-6+ earthquakes
No #Tsunami hazard
Tectonic setting in 2019 report earthjay.com?p=8935
earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/...
Right-lateral strike-slip earthquake along Blanco transform fault
Common location for M 5-6+ earthquakes
No #Tsunami hazard
Tectonic setting in 2019 report earthjay.com?p=8935
earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/...
January 16, 2026 at 4:30 AM
#EarthquakeReport for M 6.0 #Earthquake offshore of #Oregon #USA
Right-lateral strike-slip earthquake along Blanco transform fault
Common location for M 5-6+ earthquakes
No #Tsunami hazard
Tectonic setting in 2019 report earthjay.com?p=8935
earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/...
Right-lateral strike-slip earthquake along Blanco transform fault
Common location for M 5-6+ earthquakes
No #Tsunami hazard
Tectonic setting in 2019 report earthjay.com?p=8935
earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/...
Reposted by Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik
Globally, no single day in 2025 was cooler than its 1991-2020 average.
climate.copernicus.eu/global-clima...
climate.copernicus.eu/global-clima...
January 14, 2026 at 12:44 PM
Globally, no single day in 2025 was cooler than its 1991-2020 average.
climate.copernicus.eu/global-clima...
climate.copernicus.eu/global-clima...
Reposted by Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik
2025 was an exceptional year for the Earth's climate
⬆️ Warmest ocean heat content
⬆️ Tied as second warmest surface temps
⬆️ Second warmest troposphere
⬆️ Record high sea level and GHGs
⬇️ Record low winter Arctic ice
New State of the Climate over at Carbon Brief: www.carbonbrief.org/...
⬆️ Warmest ocean heat content
⬆️ Tied as second warmest surface temps
⬆️ Second warmest troposphere
⬆️ Record high sea level and GHGs
⬇️ Record low winter Arctic ice
New State of the Climate over at Carbon Brief: www.carbonbrief.org/...
January 14, 2026 at 2:53 PM
2025 was an exceptional year for the Earth's climate
⬆️ Warmest ocean heat content
⬆️ Tied as second warmest surface temps
⬆️ Second warmest troposphere
⬆️ Record high sea level and GHGs
⬇️ Record low winter Arctic ice
New State of the Climate over at Carbon Brief: www.carbonbrief.org/...
⬆️ Warmest ocean heat content
⬆️ Tied as second warmest surface temps
⬆️ Second warmest troposphere
⬆️ Record high sea level and GHGs
⬇️ Record low winter Arctic ice
New State of the Climate over at Carbon Brief: www.carbonbrief.org/...
Interesting 10 day forecast for Seattle with some ensemble members showing a cold snap and others projecting mild weather.
An arctic front is likely headed for the northern Plains/Rockies and the question is whether any of the arctic air will make it west of the Cascades or not.
An arctic front is likely headed for the northern Plains/Rockies and the question is whether any of the arctic air will make it west of the Cascades or not.
January 13, 2026 at 8:34 PM
Interesting 10 day forecast for Seattle with some ensemble members showing a cold snap and others projecting mild weather.
An arctic front is likely headed for the northern Plains/Rockies and the question is whether any of the arctic air will make it west of the Cascades or not.
An arctic front is likely headed for the northern Plains/Rockies and the question is whether any of the arctic air will make it west of the Cascades or not.
Same story for Washington (pictured) and Oregon.
Need 90th percentile snow from here on out to get to normal.
No snow coming anytime soon, so we'd need a record snowy Feb-Mar just to reach normal.
Hint: that ain't happening.
Need 90th percentile snow from here on out to get to normal.
No snow coming anytime soon, so we'd need a record snowy Feb-Mar just to reach normal.
Hint: that ain't happening.
January 13, 2026 at 7:44 PM
Same story for Washington (pictured) and Oregon.
Need 90th percentile snow from here on out to get to normal.
No snow coming anytime soon, so we'd need a record snowy Feb-Mar just to reach normal.
Hint: that ain't happening.
Need 90th percentile snow from here on out to get to normal.
No snow coming anytime soon, so we'd need a record snowy Feb-Mar just to reach normal.
Hint: that ain't happening.
One of those days in Seattle where you should probably cancel your afternoon meetings and take an extended lunch because it might be a while before we have sunshine and nearly 60 degree temperatures again.
(by the way, the record high for the date is 58)
(by the way, the record high for the date is 58)
January 13, 2026 at 6:37 PM
One of those days in Seattle where you should probably cancel your afternoon meetings and take an extended lunch because it might be a while before we have sunshine and nearly 60 degree temperatures again.
(by the way, the record high for the date is 58)
(by the way, the record high for the date is 58)
I can’t even causally read the news on a Sunday evening without there being another new crisis???
January 12, 2026 at 2:14 AM
I can’t even causally read the news on a Sunday evening without there being another new crisis???
I don’t comment much on non-weather current events but I read the content here and think what the actual fuck is going on in this country? How are we ever going to be able to turn this around when so many people support this and/or don’t know or care or have biased news feeds? It’s terrifying.
January 9, 2026 at 9:50 PM
I don’t comment much on non-weather current events but I read the content here and think what the actual fuck is going on in this country? How are we ever going to be able to turn this around when so many people support this and/or don’t know or care or have biased news feeds? It’s terrifying.
The Space Needle is in there somewhere
January 1, 2026 at 5:03 AM
The Space Needle is in there somewhere
Looks like we're going to need a miracle to be able to see anything at New Year's at the Space Needle this year...there's quite a bit of fog around and it will likely expand in coverage this evening 😶🌫️
January 1, 2026 at 12:41 AM
Looks like we're going to need a miracle to be able to see anything at New Year's at the Space Needle this year...there's quite a bit of fog around and it will likely expand in coverage this evening 😶🌫️
After a crazy December, there's not much PNW weather news to report.
A few weak weather systems will move through from Thursday night -> next week. Temperatures will be near-normal and precipitation will generally be light.
For mid-January, current odds favor a transition back to dry weather.
A few weak weather systems will move through from Thursday night -> next week. Temperatures will be near-normal and precipitation will generally be light.
For mid-January, current odds favor a transition back to dry weather.
December 30, 2025 at 10:53 PM
After a crazy December, there's not much PNW weather news to report.
A few weak weather systems will move through from Thursday night -> next week. Temperatures will be near-normal and precipitation will generally be light.
For mid-January, current odds favor a transition back to dry weather.
A few weak weather systems will move through from Thursday night -> next week. Temperatures will be near-normal and precipitation will generally be light.
For mid-January, current odds favor a transition back to dry weather.
Reposted by Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik
🚨🔥 Warmest Christmas on record for the Contiguous U.S.! The average high of 57.9F and the average low of 36.6F each broke the Christmas record by a full 3F. 🔥🚨
December 26, 2025 at 3:39 PM
🚨🔥 Warmest Christmas on record for the Contiguous U.S.! The average high of 57.9F and the average low of 36.6F each broke the Christmas record by a full 3F. 🔥🚨
Fortunately for everyone, the wind storm didn‘t happen.
The European model had far and away the best forecasts for the event, although there were enough stronger members in the ensemble spread to trigger warnings/advisories.
The European model had far and away the best forecasts for the event, although there were enough stronger members in the ensemble spread to trigger warnings/advisories.
December 24, 2025 at 8:39 PM
Fortunately for everyone, the wind storm didn‘t happen.
The European model had far and away the best forecasts for the event, although there were enough stronger members in the ensemble spread to trigger warnings/advisories.
The European model had far and away the best forecasts for the event, although there were enough stronger members in the ensemble spread to trigger warnings/advisories.
I feel bad for the NAM model, it just wants one last time to shine before NOAA cuts the cord in 2026.
Fortunately it is 10-15+ years outdated and the modeled 70+ mph winds are NOT going to happen in Seattle.
Doesn't mean there won't be a significant storm, but not apocalypse level!
Fortunately it is 10-15+ years outdated and the modeled 70+ mph winds are NOT going to happen in Seattle.
Doesn't mean there won't be a significant storm, but not apocalypse level!
December 23, 2025 at 9:15 PM
I feel bad for the NAM model, it just wants one last time to shine before NOAA cuts the cord in 2026.
Fortunately it is 10-15+ years outdated and the modeled 70+ mph winds are NOT going to happen in Seattle.
Doesn't mean there won't be a significant storm, but not apocalypse level!
Fortunately it is 10-15+ years outdated and the modeled 70+ mph winds are NOT going to happen in Seattle.
Doesn't mean there won't be a significant storm, but not apocalypse level!
Will there be a Christmas Eve windstorm?
It would be nice to have an answer, but unfortunately the best meteorologists can do is say "maybe, maybe not".
I'd say it probably leans about 75/25 in favor of a minor event, so let's hope that ends up being the case.
It would be nice to have an answer, but unfortunately the best meteorologists can do is say "maybe, maybe not".
I'd say it probably leans about 75/25 in favor of a minor event, so let's hope that ends up being the case.
Will there be a windstorm in the PNW on Christmas Eve?
Forecasters are dealing with a tricky scenario over the next day as a potential windstorm with high forecast uncertainty takes aim at the PNW. As of Tuesday morning, NWS Seattle has high wind watch…
theconvergencezone.com
December 23, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Will there be a Christmas Eve windstorm?
It would be nice to have an answer, but unfortunately the best meteorologists can do is say "maybe, maybe not".
I'd say it probably leans about 75/25 in favor of a minor event, so let's hope that ends up being the case.
It would be nice to have an answer, but unfortunately the best meteorologists can do is say "maybe, maybe not".
I'd say it probably leans about 75/25 in favor of a minor event, so let's hope that ends up being the case.
Potential X-mas eve windstorm update --
The European model has a weaker and more inland low resulting in mostly non-damaging winds.
The GFS ensembles are stronger and farther west, resulting in an event that could be damaging for many areas.
Probably will come down to a nowcast 🤷
The European model has a weaker and more inland low resulting in mostly non-damaging winds.
The GFS ensembles are stronger and farther west, resulting in an event that could be damaging for many areas.
Probably will come down to a nowcast 🤷
December 23, 2025 at 6:27 PM
Potential X-mas eve windstorm update --
The European model has a weaker and more inland low resulting in mostly non-damaging winds.
The GFS ensembles are stronger and farther west, resulting in an event that could be damaging for many areas.
Probably will come down to a nowcast 🤷
The European model has a weaker and more inland low resulting in mostly non-damaging winds.
The GFS ensembles are stronger and farther west, resulting in an event that could be damaging for many areas.
Probably will come down to a nowcast 🤷
PNW wind storms exist to frustrate forecasters.
After a bunch of news articles ran today, the threat greatly diminished in the models.
Wednesday just looks to be a normal day with light rain and a gentle breeze. Unless the models flip again 😅
After a bunch of news articles ran today, the threat greatly diminished in the models.
Wednesday just looks to be a normal day with light rain and a gentle breeze. Unless the models flip again 😅
December 23, 2025 at 6:29 AM
PNW wind storms exist to frustrate forecasters.
After a bunch of news articles ran today, the threat greatly diminished in the models.
Wednesday just looks to be a normal day with light rain and a gentle breeze. Unless the models flip again 😅
After a bunch of news articles ran today, the threat greatly diminished in the models.
Wednesday just looks to be a normal day with light rain and a gentle breeze. Unless the models flip again 😅
It's raining again...that makes it 18/22 days with measurable rain this December in Seattle, 20/22 if you include 2 days with a trace.
December 23, 2025 at 12:04 AM
It's raining again...that makes it 18/22 days with measurable rain this December in Seattle, 20/22 if you include 2 days with a trace.
Reposted by Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik
They're trying to squeak one more Harrell Administration priority through before the end of the year: allowing huge-ass corporate signs on skyscrapers in Downtown Seattle.
services.seattle.gov/Portal/Cap/C...
services.seattle.gov/Portal/Cap/C...
December 22, 2025 at 3:59 PM
They're trying to squeak one more Harrell Administration priority through before the end of the year: allowing huge-ass corporate signs on skyscrapers in Downtown Seattle.
services.seattle.gov/Portal/Cap/C...
services.seattle.gov/Portal/Cap/C...
A Christmas Eve windstorm is appearing increasingly likely with a compact 980 hPa low + trailing sting jet expected to take a troublesome S to N track. Willamette Valley, coast, PDX, SEA metros all potentially impacted.
Lots of model uncertainty…follow forecasts closely. Could be a bad one.
Lots of model uncertainty…follow forecasts closely. Could be a bad one.
December 22, 2025 at 2:47 PM
A Christmas Eve windstorm is appearing increasingly likely with a compact 980 hPa low + trailing sting jet expected to take a troublesome S to N track. Willamette Valley, coast, PDX, SEA metros all potentially impacted.
Lots of model uncertainty…follow forecasts closely. Could be a bad one.
Lots of model uncertainty…follow forecasts closely. Could be a bad one.
Watching a possible snow event for the WA lowlands on Christmas Eve.
Currently looks like a "dusting on the higher hills" type event for Seattle.
Areas north and at higher elevations have a better chance at seeing accumulating snow, but it's still too early to tell...
Currently looks like a "dusting on the higher hills" type event for Seattle.
Areas north and at higher elevations have a better chance at seeing accumulating snow, but it's still too early to tell...
December 19, 2025 at 6:59 PM
Watching a possible snow event for the WA lowlands on Christmas Eve.
Currently looks like a "dusting on the higher hills" type event for Seattle.
Areas north and at higher elevations have a better chance at seeing accumulating snow, but it's still too early to tell...
Currently looks like a "dusting on the higher hills" type event for Seattle.
Areas north and at higher elevations have a better chance at seeing accumulating snow, but it's still too early to tell...
Sea-Tac is now over 7 inches of rain for December. Average Dec total is 5.90 in.
The high water mark for Dec is 11.85" from 1979. Second is Dec 2015, 11.21".
Models suggest that we'll get to the 12-13 inch range by the end of the month, which would be #3 all time for any month.
The high water mark for Dec is 11.85" from 1979. Second is Dec 2015, 11.21".
Models suggest that we'll get to the 12-13 inch range by the end of the month, which would be #3 all time for any month.
December 18, 2025 at 6:18 PM
Sea-Tac is now over 7 inches of rain for December. Average Dec total is 5.90 in.
The high water mark for Dec is 11.85" from 1979. Second is Dec 2015, 11.21".
Models suggest that we'll get to the 12-13 inch range by the end of the month, which would be #3 all time for any month.
The high water mark for Dec is 11.85" from 1979. Second is Dec 2015, 11.21".
Models suggest that we'll get to the 12-13 inch range by the end of the month, which would be #3 all time for any month.
"What if it was all snow?"
It was at one spot in Washington -- Harts Pass, the highest elevation SNOTEL site in the Washington Cascades.
Snowpack is now 173% of normal for the date. Last winter it took until March 14 to reach this level of snowpack.
It was at one spot in Washington -- Harts Pass, the highest elevation SNOTEL site in the Washington Cascades.
Snowpack is now 173% of normal for the date. Last winter it took until March 14 to reach this level of snowpack.
December 17, 2025 at 4:47 PM
"What if it was all snow?"
It was at one spot in Washington -- Harts Pass, the highest elevation SNOTEL site in the Washington Cascades.
Snowpack is now 173% of normal for the date. Last winter it took until March 14 to reach this level of snowpack.
It was at one spot in Washington -- Harts Pass, the highest elevation SNOTEL site in the Washington Cascades.
Snowpack is now 173% of normal for the date. Last winter it took until March 14 to reach this level of snowpack.