Josh Goddard
@joshgoddard98.bsky.social
Political Science PhD student at UCL. Working on housing and electoral politics. Long-term #itfc sufferer. 🏳️🌈
Pinned
Reposted by Josh Goddard
November 26, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Reposted by Josh Goddard
Great comparative research from @joshgoddard98.bsky.social . Highly intuitive from a UK pov, too:
November 26, 2025 at 5:08 PM
Great comparative research from @joshgoddard98.bsky.social . Highly intuitive from a UK pov, too:
Reposted by Josh Goddard
Happy to see the first paper from @joshgoddard98.bsky.social ’s PhD project published today! 🙌
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Class voting is alive and well, once we recognise the importance of asset (housing) ownership as well as labour market position as a class marker
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Class voting is alive and well, once we recognise the importance of asset (housing) ownership as well as labour market position as a class marker
Housing and electoral behaviour: The changing face of class voting in advanced democracies
Scholarship on the relationship between social structure and electoral behaviour has traditionally operationalised voters’ economic or class situation…
www.sciencedirect.com
November 26, 2025 at 4:14 PM
Happy to see the first paper from @joshgoddard98.bsky.social ’s PhD project published today! 🙌
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Class voting is alive and well, once we recognise the importance of asset (housing) ownership as well as labour market position as a class marker
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Class voting is alive and well, once we recognise the importance of asset (housing) ownership as well as labour market position as a class marker
November 26, 2025 at 4:25 PM
That's the second consecutive morning where my first word of the day has been a swear word. Test cricket eh?
November 22, 2025 at 5:57 AM
That's the second consecutive morning where my first word of the day has been a swear word. Test cricket eh?
Reposted by Josh Goddard
Several recent studies have found that politicians aren't very good at estimating public support for policies. But we have little idea about whether politicians are good at knowing which issues are more important to voters. Our new publication has a first go at answering this question rdcu.be/eQGm4
How Politicians (mis)Perceive Policy Salience
eur01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com
November 19, 2025 at 10:01 AM
Several recent studies have found that politicians aren't very good at estimating public support for policies. But we have little idea about whether politicians are good at knowing which issues are more important to voters. Our new publication has a first go at answering this question rdcu.be/eQGm4
Reposted by Josh Goddard
A chart from "The British General Election of 2024" (out soon!) which is relevant to this debate - here's what voters wanted (black line) and what they though Labour (red) and Cons (blue) would do on tax and spend during the campaign. Higher figures = "put them up". Some important lessons here 1/?
November 14, 2025 at 10:42 AM
A chart from "The British General Election of 2024" (out soon!) which is relevant to this debate - here's what voters wanted (black line) and what they though Labour (red) and Cons (blue) would do on tax and spend during the campaign. Higher figures = "put them up". Some important lessons here 1/?
Reposted by Josh Goddard
Last Friday, new English Indices of Deprivation were released for the first time since 2019, measuring relative deprivation in 33,755 areas of England across multiple domains. How do these geographic disparities relate to voting patterns in the UK’s last General Election? A short thread 🧵
November 3, 2025 at 8:41 AM
Last Friday, new English Indices of Deprivation were released for the first time since 2019, measuring relative deprivation in 33,755 areas of England across multiple domains. How do these geographic disparities relate to voting patterns in the UK’s last General Election? A short thread 🧵
Stephen Fry, Olivia Colman, Edith Cavell, Admiral Nelson, Robert Kett, my nan, Ed Balls, Lynn Benfield, Jarrolds, the 16th centruy weaving trade, Aviva, Colmans mustard, Julian of Norwich...your boys took one hell of a beating
Ipswich Town's 6,013-day wait for a win over Norwich City is over.
Cedric Kipre's goal from a corner, Jaden Philogene's wonderstrike and Jack Clarke's close-range effort earn Ipswich derby victory for the first time since 19 April 2009.
Cedric Kipre's goal from a corner, Jaden Philogene's wonderstrike and Jack Clarke's close-range effort earn Ipswich derby victory for the first time since 19 April 2009.
October 5, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Stephen Fry, Olivia Colman, Edith Cavell, Admiral Nelson, Robert Kett, my nan, Ed Balls, Lynn Benfield, Jarrolds, the 16th centruy weaving trade, Aviva, Colmans mustard, Julian of Norwich...your boys took one hell of a beating
Reposted by Josh Goddard
This is thinly disguised homophobia by Farage.
The same far-right figures who have spent years coming for my trans friends & colleagues are emboldened again against anything different from their "normal."
Today and everyday I stand with the whole LGBTQIA+ community.
Your struggle is my struggle.
The same far-right figures who have spent years coming for my trans friends & colleagues are emboldened again against anything different from their "normal."
Today and everyday I stand with the whole LGBTQIA+ community.
Your struggle is my struggle.
Nigel Farage:
"Children who have two stable parents have a better chance in life... The most stable relationships, the ones that last the longest, tend to be between men & women... There's an awful lot of kids in the country not getting the kind of start... they deserve."
Farage has two ex-wives.
"Children who have two stable parents have a better chance in life... The most stable relationships, the ones that last the longest, tend to be between men & women... There's an awful lot of kids in the country not getting the kind of start... they deserve."
Farage has two ex-wives.
September 15, 2025 at 8:10 PM
This is thinly disguised homophobia by Farage.
The same far-right figures who have spent years coming for my trans friends & colleagues are emboldened again against anything different from their "normal."
Today and everyday I stand with the whole LGBTQIA+ community.
Your struggle is my struggle.
The same far-right figures who have spent years coming for my trans friends & colleagues are emboldened again against anything different from their "normal."
Today and everyday I stand with the whole LGBTQIA+ community.
Your struggle is my struggle.
Reposted by Josh Goddard
Thoughts from me on the UK government's elections policy paper.
In short: many good things, but several points don't go far enough, and there is one big mistake.
In short: many good things, but several points don't go far enough, and there is one big mistake.
NEW BLOG: Government plans for electoral reform are welcome but contain one serious error of judgement
@alanrenwick.bsky.social argues much of what the government proposes is good. But the newly appointed ministers responsible for elections will need to make further progress on some crucial matters
@alanrenwick.bsky.social argues much of what the government proposes is good. But the newly appointed ministers responsible for elections will need to make further progress on some crucial matters
Government plans for electoral reform are a welcome start, but contain one surprising and serious error of judgement
Much of what the government proposes is good. But the newly appointed ministers responsible for elections will need to make further progress on some crucial matters
constitution-unit.com
September 12, 2025 at 7:18 AM
Thoughts from me on the UK government's elections policy paper.
In short: many good things, but several points don't go far enough, and there is one big mistake.
In short: many good things, but several points don't go far enough, and there is one big mistake.
Reposted by Josh Goddard
🚨New Research 🚨
Ahead of the release of Wave 30 of the BES Internet Panel, the team has examined Labour's decline since the 2024 GE.
Labour's support has splintered into mostly indecision or left-liberal parties, but they've also lost their few right-wing voters.
🧵⬇️
tinyurl.com/3m62exph
Ahead of the release of Wave 30 of the BES Internet Panel, the team has examined Labour's decline since the 2024 GE.
Labour's support has splintered into mostly indecision or left-liberal parties, but they've also lost their few right-wing voters.
🧵⬇️
tinyurl.com/3m62exph
Looking for Labour’s lost voters - The British Election Study
www.britishelectionstudy.com
September 3, 2025 at 10:15 AM
🚨New Research 🚨
Ahead of the release of Wave 30 of the BES Internet Panel, the team has examined Labour's decline since the 2024 GE.
Labour's support has splintered into mostly indecision or left-liberal parties, but they've also lost their few right-wing voters.
🧵⬇️
tinyurl.com/3m62exph
Ahead of the release of Wave 30 of the BES Internet Panel, the team has examined Labour's decline since the 2024 GE.
Labour's support has splintered into mostly indecision or left-liberal parties, but they've also lost their few right-wing voters.
🧵⬇️
tinyurl.com/3m62exph
I refuse to accept this, will not recognise it, and shall therefore continue living in a reality where he plays for Ipswich Town
September 1, 2025 at 9:46 PM
I refuse to accept this, will not recognise it, and shall therefore continue living in a reality where he plays for Ipswich Town
what an extraordinary talent Lauren James is, so mesmerising to watch
July 17, 2025 at 8:28 PM
what an extraordinary talent Lauren James is, so mesmerising to watch
Setting myself targets like "work for 10 minutes and then you get to check the cricket score"
July 14, 2025 at 3:35 PM
Setting myself targets like "work for 10 minutes and then you get to check the cricket score"
the first week of Wimbledon is the pinnacle of the sporting calendar and I don't think anybody could convince me otherwise
July 1, 2025 at 6:43 PM
the first week of Wimbledon is the pinnacle of the sporting calendar and I don't think anybody could convince me otherwise
Reposted by Josh Goddard
Absolutely incredible turnout for Budapest Pride! So proud of all the organizers, including some old friends, who estimate hundreds of thousands— major embarrassment to Orban
June 28, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Absolutely incredible turnout for Budapest Pride! So proud of all the organizers, including some old friends, who estimate hundreds of thousands— major embarrassment to Orban
The Green party polling regularly at 10%+ is such a fundamental transformation in the British party system and has gone completely under the radar
YouGov's first MRP since the 2024 election is out, showing Reform UK winning the most votes, amid losses for Labour and the Tories
Reform UK: 26% (+12 from 2024)
Labour: 23% (-11)
Conservatives: 18% (-6)
Lib Dems: 15% (+3)
Greens: 11% (+4)
SNP: 3% (=)
Plaid: 1% (=)
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
Reform UK: 26% (+12 from 2024)
Labour: 23% (-11)
Conservatives: 18% (-6)
Lib Dems: 15% (+3)
Greens: 11% (+4)
SNP: 3% (=)
Plaid: 1% (=)
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
June 26, 2025 at 8:50 PM
The Green party polling regularly at 10%+ is such a fundamental transformation in the British party system and has gone completely under the radar
The return of an age old question: how to be productive when a test match is on?
June 21, 2025 at 10:33 AM
The return of an age old question: how to be productive when a test match is on?
In the same way that Burton Albion target Jurgen Klopp
May 28, 2025 at 8:22 AM
In the same way that Burton Albion target Jurgen Klopp
I'm happy for Spurs but sad to see how much the UEFA cup has been degraded (what was that final?!). There was a time - 1981, to pick a date at random🤔 - when it was a respectable trophy
May 21, 2025 at 10:47 PM
I'm happy for Spurs but sad to see how much the UEFA cup has been degraded (what was that final?!). There was a time - 1981, to pick a date at random🤔 - when it was a respectable trophy
Guardiola typically graceless in defeat
May 17, 2025 at 5:32 PM
Guardiola typically graceless in defeat
I think Green/Lib Dem sentiment towards Labour was always going to be a crucial indicator to keep an eye on in this parliament. If these groups' attitudes towards Labour start to resemble Reform supporters' attitudes towards the Tories in 2024 (which they almost do now) that has major implications
Labour voters are now as likely to see the Greens favourably as the Labour Party
Among 2024 Labour voters
Greens: 61% favourable (-1 from 13-14 Apr)
Labour: 59% (-7)
Lib Dems: 54% (-1)
Reform UK: 18% (+9)
Conservatives: 6% (+2)
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
Among 2024 Labour voters
Greens: 61% favourable (-1 from 13-14 Apr)
Labour: 59% (-7)
Lib Dems: 54% (-1)
Reform UK: 18% (+9)
Conservatives: 6% (+2)
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
May 17, 2025 at 8:14 AM
I think Green/Lib Dem sentiment towards Labour was always going to be a crucial indicator to keep an eye on in this parliament. If these groups' attitudes towards Labour start to resemble Reform supporters' attitudes towards the Tories in 2024 (which they almost do now) that has major implications