Leo Feler
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leofeler.com
Leo Feler
@leofeler.com
270 followers 210 following 100 posts
Chief Economist at Numerator and Visiting Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Previously UCLA Anderson Forecast & Johns Hopkins.

I write about consumer behavior and macroeconomics.

Website: leofeler.com.

Chicago
Opinions are my own
Posts Replies Media Videos
Reposted by Leo Feler
badideas.bsky.social
A video of Alex Pretti reading out the final salute of an unnamed veteran he cared for until the end of his life in the ICU, posted to Facebook by his son.
January 25, 2026 at 1:18 AM
Reposted by Leo Feler
chrisgeidner.bsky.social
The request includes a declaration from a witness who filmed today's shooting of Pretti.

Read their words:

"I feel afraid. Only hours have passed since they shot a man right in front me and I don't feel like I can go home because I heard agents were looking for me.
2. On Saturday, January 24, 2026, at about 8:50 am, I was getting ready to go to work when I heard whistles outside. I knew the whistles meant that ICE agents were in the area, so I decided to check it out on my way to work. I've been involved in observing in my community because it is so important to document what ICE is doing to my neighbors. Connecting to your local community and knowing who your neighbors are is something I profoundly value. 3. I drove to Nicollet Ave. and 26 where I could hear the whistles coming from. I turned south onto Nicollet. There were already several ICE agents there and they'd set up a sort of vehicle convoy on Nicollet and 28. There were also about 15 observers there, recording and observing ICE. 4. I saw ICE agents surrounding cars and punching car windows. I also saw them stopping vehicles further down Nicollet, so I backed up because I didn't feel safe continuing on. 5. I noticed a man sort of acting to help traffic move more smoothly. He helped me find a place to park. I got out with my whistle and my camera. I went over to him and said something like, "I'm going to film and use my whistle." 6. It seemed like most ICE activity was happening a little farther down the street from us, near 27th. Someone was being thrown to the ground. 7. I started recording. There was an agent by a car across the street. Two observers were a few feet away from the agent, blowing their whistles. One was wearing a backpack. 8. I and the man who was observing and helping direct traffic were standing in the street. There was a phone in the man's hand recording a video. 9. An agent approached and asked us to back up, so I moved slowly back onto the sidewalk. 10. The man stayed in the street, filming as the other observers I mentioned earlier were being forced backward by another ICE agent threatening them with pepper spray. The man went closer to support them as they got threatened, just with his camera out. I didn't see him reach for or hold a gun. 11. Then the ICE agent shoved one of the other observers to the ground. Then he started pepper spraying all three of them directly in the face and all over. The man with the phone put his hands above his head and the agent sprayed him again and pushed him. 12. Then the man tried to help up the woman the ICE agent had shoved to the ground. The ICE agents just kept spraying. More agents came over and grabbed the man who was still trying to help the woman get up. All three of the observers looked to have been badly affected by the pepper spray. I could feel the pepper spray in my eyes. 13. The agents pulled the man on the ground. I didn't see him touch any of them—he wasn't even turned toward them. It didn't look like he was trying to resist, just trying to help the woman up. I didn't see him with a gun. They threw him to the ground. Four or five agents had him on the ground and they just started shooting him. They shot him so many times. 14.1 don't know why they shot him. He was only helping. I was five feet from him and they just shot him. 15. The video I recorded of what happened accurately depicts the events leading up to the agents shooting him and several minutes afterwards. The video is attached as Exhibit 1. 16. I have read the statement from DHS about what happened and it is wrong. The man did not approach the agents with a gun. He approached them with a camera. He was just trying to help a woman get up and they took him to the ground. 17. I feel afraid. Only hours have passed since they shot a man right in front me and I don't feel like I can go home because I heard agents were looking for me. I don't know what the agents will do when they find me. I do know that they're not telling the truth about what happened. I've heard that other witnesses might have been arrested and taken to the Whipple Building.
January 25, 2026 at 1:36 AM
Reposted by Leo Feler
drewharwell.com
Another horrific ICE shooting in Minneapolis. Man wrestled to the ground by federal agents, then shot multiple times.

www.reddit.com/r/Minneapoli...

@startribune.com is there: www.startribune.com/ice-raids-mi...
January 24, 2026 at 4:05 PM
Reposted by Leo Feler
federalreserve.gov
Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckG...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
Statement by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell
YouTube video by Federal Reserve
www.youtube.com
January 12, 2026 at 12:35 AM
Reposted by Leo Feler
carlquintanilla.bsky.social
Pope Leo:
November 7, 2025 at 5:42 PM
leofeler.com
Great substack by @jaredb-econ.bsky.social on who's driving consumer spending & what that means for economic growth. The economy is more fragile than it seems on the surface. In Numerator data, we see lower-income HHs cutting back on discretionary purchases.

econjared.substack.com/p/whos-spend...
Who's Spending and What Does That Imply For Growth?
The weight of the evidence suggests an economy that's considerably more fragile than some of the data--remember when we used to get data?--are showing.
econjared.substack.com
October 22, 2025 at 7:49 PM
leofeler.com
Thanks to @bencasselman.bsky.social and @colbylsmith.bsky.social for featuring my comments. Here's a chart showing that spending on everyday household items tends to be more equal across income quintiles but has been growing more unequal over the past few years.

www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b...
October 20, 2025 at 9:18 PM
Reposted by Leo Feler
steveliesman.bsky.social
Statement from Fed Gov Lisa Cook:

“President Trump purported to fire me “for cause” when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022.”
August 26, 2025 at 3:05 AM
Reposted by Leo Feler
claudia-sahm.bsky.social
The President firing the BLS Commissioner last week stirred up many criticisms agency. One that I found most troubling is the idea that the private sector could do it better. No, there's no substitute for the BLS as I argue in my
@opinion.bloomberg.com piece: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
The BLS Can’t Be Replaced by the Private Sector
Government statistical agencies provide breadth and context that private firms can’t match.
www.bloomberg.com
August 8, 2025 at 7:53 PM
leofeler.com
This wouldn't even cover the higher costs the average American family will pay because of tariffs.

$3.3 Trillion in imports annually * 20% effective tariff rate = $660 Billion. Divide this by 132 million households in the US and each household is paying $5,000 a year in tariffs.
August 8, 2025 at 7:26 PM
leofeler.com
My piece on ABC News this morning.

Article 1, Section 8 of the US Constitution:

The CONGRESS shall have the power to lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts and excises...

To regulate commerce with foreign nations...

abcnews.go.com/US/video/sto...
Video Stocks rise after Trump’s sweeping new tariffs take effect
President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs finally took effect on Thursday, slapping levies on dozens of countries and risking price increases for a host of everyday goods.
abcnews.go.com
August 7, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Reposted by Leo Feler
timobres.bsky.social
Looming problems from BLS statistics politicization. Social security benefits and many long term labor market contracts are indexed to the CPI. BLS makes the CPI. Recipients care about indexed cost of living increases, a lot.
/1
August 4, 2025 at 9:50 PM
leofeler.com
"Outside recession" is doing a lot of work here. Big revisions aren't unusual during economic turning points.
fintwitter.bsky.social FinTwitter @fintwitter.bsky.social · Aug 4
GOLDMAN SACHS SAYS RECENT 2-MONTH JOB REVISIONS WERE LARGEST OUTSIDE RECESSION SINCE 1968. EXPECTS MORE BIG REVISIONS NEXT MONTH.
August 4, 2025 at 9:18 PM
leofeler.com
Looking forward to our new Congressional districts in Illinois.
This is a gerrymandered map of Illinois showing what Illinois Congressional districts could look like in retaliation for Texas changing its Congressional districts in an attempt to gain an unfair advantage in the upcoming House elections.
August 4, 2025 at 9:11 PM
leofeler.com
The BLS is like going to the doctor for preventive screenings. If there's bad news, you want to know it so you can take early and preventive action...

abcnews.go.com/US/video/eco...
Video Economist says Bureau of Labor Statistics data is 'very objective'
Leo Feler, chief economist at Numerator, discusses how the Bureau of Labor Statistics collects and reports data, and what the firing of Commissioner Erika McEntarfer means for the agency's future.
abcnews.go.com
August 4, 2025 at 4:10 PM
Reposted by Leo Feler
erikamcentarfer.bsky.social
It has been the honor of my life to serve as Commissioner of BLS alongside the many dedicated civil servants tasked with measuring a vast and dynamic economy. It is vital and important work and I thank them for their service to this nation.
August 2, 2025 at 2:18 AM
leofeler.com
It's not as if people won't realize the jobs market is slowing and inflation is rising. But they'll figure out the hard way -- as they're looking for jobs, negotiating wages, shopping for everyday items.

This is going to make it harder for policymakers to react in time.
www.cnbc.com/2025/08/01/t...
Trump fires commissioner of labor statistics after weaker-than-expected jobs figures slam markets
Trump accused BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer of being a political appointee who was manipulating jobs data.
www.cnbc.com
August 1, 2025 at 7:20 PM
leofeler.com
Thanks to @barrons.com for featuring my op-ed on why the Fed is right to wait before continuing to cut interest rates.

www.barrons.com/articles/fed...
Americans Are Sick of Inflation. There Is a Lesson for the Fed.
Price hikes are still consumers’ top concern even as official inflation rates slow, Leo Feler writes in a guest commentary.
www.barrons.com
July 29, 2025 at 4:14 PM
leofeler.com
It's not every day that @tracyalloway.bsky.social mentions you in her Odd Lots newsletter. I have officially peaked!

cc: my all-star co-authors @shaciogluhoke.bsky.social and Jack Chylak.

www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

Thanks @tracyalloway.bsky.social and @bloomberg.com for featuring our work.
July 21, 2025 at 4:41 PM
leofeler.com
And will all of that sugar be produced in the US or will it be imported from countries subject to 50% tariffs? Because the US can't produce that much sugar.
washingtonpost.com The Washington Post @washingtonpost.com · Jul 17
President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that he had been in touch with Coca-Cola executives, who he wrote had agreed to produce the nation’s top-selling soft drink domestically using cane sugar, as it is done with Mexican Coca-Cola.
Trump says Coca-Cola to switch to cane sugar in U.S. — just like Mexican Coke
Coca-Cola did not confirm that it would be changing the formula to America’s top-selling soda anytime soon.
www.washingtonpost.com
July 17, 2025 at 1:55 AM
leofeler.com
Thanks to the @bloomberg.com team for having me on this morning. Great conversation about why we're not seeing tariffs having a meaningful impact on consumer prices yet, but that doesn't mean we're in the clear.

youtu.be/j0aUJzrPzIE?...
Bloomberg Surveillance 7/14/2025
YouTube video by Bloomberg Television
youtu.be
July 14, 2025 at 7:14 PM
leofeler.com
This is a huge understatement, @kairyssdal.bsky.social.

Deploying elite military forces against your own country and against your own people is what fascist, authoritarian governments do.
kairyssdal.bsky.social Kai Ryssdal @kairyssdal.bsky.social · Jun 8
I just gonna go ahead and say that putting active duty United States Marines on the streets of an American city is, in fact, heavy handed.
June 8, 2025 at 5:46 PM
leofeler.com
We asked 2,000 representative US households what one word they would use to describe the United States.

We asked 1,000 representative Canadian households what one word they would use to describe Canada.

Here are the results from our latest survey (May 1-7):
May 12, 2025 at 9:50 PM
leofeler.com
Thanks for featuring our FEDS note, @adamshap.bsky.social!
adamshap.bsky.social Adam Shapiro @adamshap.bsky.social · May 9
“People's negative sentiment seems to be driven by the perception that incomes have not kept up with prices, even though real spending has increased, and by the effort they exerted to adapt to rising prices”

www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
Tracking consumer sentiment versus how consumers are doing based on verified retail purchases
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
www.federalreserve.gov
May 12, 2025 at 12:57 PM