Leon Krause
@leonkrause.bsky.social
PhD candidate @ RISC/University of Frankfurt (@fgz-risc.bsky.social, @goetheuni.bsky.social) & research fellow @ PRIF (@prif.org). Public opinion, (German) foreign policy, war and cohesion, quant methods & experiments.
how not to Zeitenwende
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Gestern fand der ,WELT-Wirtschaftsgipfel, im Axel-Springer-Hochhaus statt.
Fast die gesamte Bundesregierung bis hin zum Bundeskanzler nahm teil.
Auch mit dabei: Palantir-CEO Alex Karp, Trump-Vertrauter Steve Witkoff, der Bundeswehr Generalinspekteur & diverse Investoren. 🧵
Gestern fand der ,WELT-Wirtschaftsgipfel, im Axel-Springer-Hochhaus statt.
Fast die gesamte Bundesregierung bis hin zum Bundeskanzler nahm teil.
Auch mit dabei: Palantir-CEO Alex Karp, Trump-Vertrauter Steve Witkoff, der Bundeswehr Generalinspekteur & diverse Investoren. 🧵
January 28, 2026 at 10:33 AM
how not to Zeitenwende
The more time passes, the more I’m convinced that the only numbers he genuinely cares about are from US public opinion. Only if these are in large majority against what he plans, he’ll adapt. In the current political system and his administration, this makes public opinion explicitly powerful.
January 28, 2026 at 7:09 AM
The more time passes, the more I’m convinced that the only numbers he genuinely cares about are from US public opinion. Only if these are in large majority against what he plans, he’ll adapt. In the current political system and his administration, this makes public opinion explicitly powerful.
Reposted by Leon Krause
Auschwitz was at the end of a process. We must remember that it did not start from gas chambers.
This hatred gradually developed: from ideas, words, stereotypes & prejudice through legal exclusion, dehumanization & escalating violence... to systematic and industrial murder.
Auschwitz took time.
This hatred gradually developed: from ideas, words, stereotypes & prejudice through legal exclusion, dehumanization & escalating violence... to systematic and industrial murder.
Auschwitz took time.
January 27, 2026 at 11:00 AM
Auschwitz was at the end of a process. We must remember that it did not start from gas chambers.
This hatred gradually developed: from ideas, words, stereotypes & prejudice through legal exclusion, dehumanization & escalating violence... to systematic and industrial murder.
Auschwitz took time.
This hatred gradually developed: from ideas, words, stereotypes & prejudice through legal exclusion, dehumanization & escalating violence... to systematic and industrial murder.
Auschwitz took time.
This was a threat of force. I don’t understand how anyone can interpret this differently.
January 21, 2026 at 3:31 PM
This was a threat of force. I don’t understand how anyone can interpret this differently.
Reposted by Leon Krause
He is 100% threatening to use force. He still might not, but a headline that accepts this as a climb-down from force is simply inaccurate. And his word means nothing anyway.
Yes, this is my overwhelming impression listening to it. He repeatedly demanded full ownership of Greenland, and made an explicit threat to punish the Europeans if they don't give in. He then threatened to punish Canada over its prime minister's speech!
If you're only reading headlines and see "Trump Says He Won't Use Force" it will give you a misimpression of both how bellicose this speech is and how dug in he is on Greenland.
January 21, 2026 at 2:40 PM
He is 100% threatening to use force. He still might not, but a headline that accepts this as a climb-down from force is simply inaccurate. And his word means nothing anyway.
Reposted by Leon Krause
Is this the most dangerous, and unhinged, international speech by a US president ever? Demands Greenland (and Iceland). Threatens Canada. Trashes NATO. Makes fun of leaders. Disparages Europe's environmental goals.
Carney was right to call our current moment a "rupture"
Carney was right to call our current moment a "rupture"
Trump on Canada: They should be grateful also, but they’re not. I watched your prime minister yesterday. He wasn’t so grateful. But they should be grateful to us. Canada lives because of the U.S. Remember that, Mark, the next time you make your statements.
January 21, 2026 at 2:30 PM
Is this the most dangerous, and unhinged, international speech by a US president ever? Demands Greenland (and Iceland). Threatens Canada. Trashes NATO. Makes fun of leaders. Disparages Europe's environmental goals.
Carney was right to call our current moment a "rupture"
Carney was right to call our current moment a "rupture"
Reposted by Leon Krause
2024: can Europe defend itself ALONGSIDE America?
2025: can Europe defend itself WITHOUT America?
2026: can Europe defend itself AGAINST America?
2025: can Europe defend itself WITHOUT America?
2026: can Europe defend itself AGAINST America?
January 18, 2026 at 10:12 AM
2024: can Europe defend itself ALONGSIDE America?
2025: can Europe defend itself WITHOUT America?
2026: can Europe defend itself AGAINST America?
2025: can Europe defend itself WITHOUT America?
2026: can Europe defend itself AGAINST America?
I‘m just hoping that all this Greenland saga eventually will turn out positive for the people of Greenland. I think they never had such attention on their very own interests. This might be a turning point in how the international society, and especially Denmark, will recognise them.
January 18, 2026 at 10:48 AM
I‘m just hoping that all this Greenland saga eventually will turn out positive for the people of Greenland. I think they never had such attention on their very own interests. This might be a turning point in how the international society, and especially Denmark, will recognise them.
Reposted by Leon Krause
Bei den ganzen Maßnahmen, die Politiker:innen von Johann Wadephul über Friedrich Merz bis Julia Klöckner gegen Iran ankündigen, spricht niemand von Visa-Erleichterungen. Seit Jahren ist es für Iraner:innen fast unmöglich, ein Visum für Deutschland zu bekommen. Ah damn, das wäre ja echte Solidarität.
January 14, 2026 at 2:38 PM
Bei den ganzen Maßnahmen, die Politiker:innen von Johann Wadephul über Friedrich Merz bis Julia Klöckner gegen Iran ankündigen, spricht niemand von Visa-Erleichterungen. Seit Jahren ist es für Iraner:innen fast unmöglich, ein Visum für Deutschland zu bekommen. Ah damn, das wäre ja echte Solidarität.
Reposted by Leon Krause
The United States needs military access to Greenland, which it already has, to defend the Arctic, which it already does, from Russian and Chinese ships, which aren’t actually there, and this is so important we should destroy the Western alliance to get it, do I have that right?
January 14, 2026 at 1:23 PM
The United States needs military access to Greenland, which it already has, to defend the Arctic, which it already does, from Russian and Chinese ships, which aren’t actually there, and this is so important we should destroy the Western alliance to get it, do I have that right?
I think we can start preparing our posts for the moment the US takes Greenland
January 14, 2026 at 5:08 PM
I think we can start preparing our posts for the moment the US takes Greenland
Reposted by Leon Krause
Recherchen zufolge hat sich seit dem 28. Dezember das größte Massaker der jüngeren iranischen Geschichte ereignet. Informationen aus dem Land sind rar.
Massenproteste in Iran: Exilmedium zählt 12.000 Tote in Iran
Recherchen zufolge hat sich seit dem 28. Dezember das größte Massaker der jüngeren iranischen Geschichte ereignet. Informationen aus dem Land sind rar.
taz.de
January 13, 2026 at 4:21 PM
Recherchen zufolge hat sich seit dem 28. Dezember das größte Massaker der jüngeren iranischen Geschichte ereignet. Informationen aus dem Land sind rar.
what a world we live in
America’s raid on Caracas, and subsequent talk of acquiring Greenland, if necessary by force, means military action is no longer unthinkable between two countries that have been peaceful since 1812, before Canadian independence
Canada’s armed forces are planning for threats from America
They started rebuilding in 2025, before Donald Trump’s most recent bid for hemispheric dominance
econ.st
January 8, 2026 at 8:07 AM
what a world we live in
Reposted by Leon Krause
The latest from YouGov (n ~ 2.2k): No one's buying this Greenland shit. Trump loses virtually everyone on the threat of force. He barely gets *half of Republicans* on "purchasing" Greenland.
today.yougov.com/topics/overv...
today.yougov.com/topics/overv...
January 7, 2026 at 7:50 PM
The latest from YouGov (n ~ 2.2k): No one's buying this Greenland shit. Trump loses virtually everyone on the threat of force. He barely gets *half of Republicans* on "purchasing" Greenland.
today.yougov.com/topics/overv...
today.yougov.com/topics/overv...
Reposted by Leon Krause
Horrific, disgusting, inexcusable, antisemitic
BREAKING: 11 people were killed at Sydney's Bondi Beach in an attack on the Jewish community, an official says.
Gunmen kill 9 at Bondi Beach; police kill one, arrest another
Two gunmen have shot dead nine people at Sydney’s Bondi Beach. This tragic event occurred on Sunday.
bit.ly
December 14, 2025 at 12:29 PM
Horrific, disgusting, inexcusable, antisemitic
Reposted by Leon Krause
Unser Bericht zum 7. Oktober dokumentiert die Verbrechen umfassend. Er belegt Verbrechen gegen die Menschlichkeit durch die Hamas und andere bewaffnete Gruppen.
Vollumfängliche Aufarbeitung durch internationale Gerichte und Reparationen für die Opfer jetzt!
Lies den Bericht: bit.ly/4iN8E1Q
Vollumfängliche Aufarbeitung durch internationale Gerichte und Reparationen für die Opfer jetzt!
Lies den Bericht: bit.ly/4iN8E1Q
December 11, 2025 at 8:34 AM
Unser Bericht zum 7. Oktober dokumentiert die Verbrechen umfassend. Er belegt Verbrechen gegen die Menschlichkeit durch die Hamas und andere bewaffnete Gruppen.
Vollumfängliche Aufarbeitung durch internationale Gerichte und Reparationen für die Opfer jetzt!
Lies den Bericht: bit.ly/4iN8E1Q
Vollumfängliche Aufarbeitung durch internationale Gerichte und Reparationen für die Opfer jetzt!
Lies den Bericht: bit.ly/4iN8E1Q
This is amazing work
New paper! @william-dinneen.bsky.social @guygrossman.bsky.social Yiqing Xu and I use GPT to code 91k articles from 174 polisci journals (2003–2023)and track research designs, transparency practices, and citations. How has the credibility revolution reshaped the discipline? doi.org/10.31235/osf...
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December 3, 2025 at 9:51 AM
This is amazing work
Reposted by Leon Krause
#Polarisierung wird häufig als Krisensymptom gedeutet. Im neuen FGZ-Blogbeitrag schreiben Cosima Adams und @leonkrause.bsky.social über den Wert gesellschaftlicher Konflikte - und wieso Polarisierung erst dann gefährlich wird, wenn Kompromisse unmöglich werden. fgzrisc.hypotheses.org/6792
Zwischen Spaltung und Stabilität: warum Polarisierung mehr als eine Krise ist
Polarisierung wird in öffentlichen Diskursen häufig als Krisensymptom gedeutet – als Ausdruck gesellschaftlicher Zerrissenheit. Demgegenüber zeigt dieser Blogbeitrag, warum Konflikte für gesellschaftl...
fgzrisc.hypotheses.org
November 27, 2025 at 8:38 AM
#Polarisierung wird häufig als Krisensymptom gedeutet. Im neuen FGZ-Blogbeitrag schreiben Cosima Adams und @leonkrause.bsky.social über den Wert gesellschaftlicher Konflikte - und wieso Polarisierung erst dann gefährlich wird, wenn Kompromisse unmöglich werden. fgzrisc.hypotheses.org/6792
Former colleagues at GIGA published a report on German public opinion on Gaza and the numbers are quite remarkable: 59% say that Israel’s military action should be considered genocide; 56% that Germany’s historical responsibility should apply to Jews, not Israel; only 10% support the Staatsräson.
Gaza, Israel, and German Foreign Policy: A View on Public Opinion
A survey conducted in August 2025 found that the majority of people living in Germany support a foreign policy towards Gaza and Israel that is guided by international law and seeks to uphold universal...
www.giga-hamburg.de
November 19, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Former colleagues at GIGA published a report on German public opinion on Gaza and the numbers are quite remarkable: 59% say that Israel’s military action should be considered genocide; 56% that Germany’s historical responsibility should apply to Jews, not Israel; only 10% support the Staatsräson.
Reposted by Leon Krause
... oder um es anders zu sagen: Eine Regierung, die eine Bedrohung durch Russland beschwört und deshalb junge Männer zwangsweise zu den Streitkräften holen will, aber gleichzeitig den Import russischen Stahls zulässt, wirkt nicht besonders glaubwürdig.
November 3, 2025 at 10:36 AM
... oder um es anders zu sagen: Eine Regierung, die eine Bedrohung durch Russland beschwört und deshalb junge Männer zwangsweise zu den Streitkräften holen will, aber gleichzeitig den Import russischen Stahls zulässt, wirkt nicht besonders glaubwürdig.
Wieder mal ein wunderbares Beispiel, wie man NICHT mit Umfragen umgehen sollte. Generell schwierig, so viele Informationen vor einer Frage zu geben, weil diese sehr anders interpretiert werden können. Was bei Umfragen wichtig ist, haben wir vor kurzem aufgeschrieben (wenn auch ein anderer Kontext)👇🏼
October 24, 2025 at 10:16 AM
Wieder mal ein wunderbares Beispiel, wie man NICHT mit Umfragen umgehen sollte. Generell schwierig, so viele Informationen vor einer Frage zu geben, weil diese sehr anders interpretiert werden können. Was bei Umfragen wichtig ist, haben wir vor kurzem aufgeschrieben (wenn auch ein anderer Kontext)👇🏼
This is pretty big news for the attractiveness of science in Europe in light of the US academic crackdown.
I am delighted to share that Nobel laureates Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee will join our Department of Economics @econ.uzh.ch at the University of Zurich on July 1, 2026, as Lemann Foundation Professors of Economics.
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October 10, 2025 at 9:39 AM
This is pretty big news for the attractiveness of science in Europe in light of the US academic crackdown.
Reposted by Leon Krause
Israel has committed genocide in Gaza, says UN inquiry
Israel has committed genocide in Gaza, says UN inquiry
Commission’s 72-page legal analysis cites examples including scale of killings, aid blockages and forced displacement
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Middle East crisis – live updates
A UN commission of inquiry concluded on Tuesday that Israel had committed genocide in Gaza and that top Israeli officials including the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, had incited these acts.
It cited examples of the scale of the killings, aid blockages, forced displacement and the destruction of a fertility clinic to back up its genocide finding, adding its voice to rights groups and others that have reached the same conclusion. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
September 16, 2025 at 7:25 AM
Israel has committed genocide in Gaza, says UN inquiry