Utopian Incrementalist
@meliorist.bsky.social
Liberal, pragmatist, humanist, democrat, reformist, meliorist, American, cosmopolite. "To be ignorant of the past is to remain forever a child." -- Cicero
Pinned
Reposted by Utopian Incrementalist
Ok grandpa let’s take you to the hague
November 27, 2025 at 4:07 PM
Ok grandpa let’s take you to the hague
Reposted by Utopian Incrementalist
the genAI bubble relies on you conflating the genuinely tremendous potential of using machine learning for e.g. image recognition in radiotherapy, protein folding, simulations in power systems etc with the child abuse image generators and schizophrenic delusions generators
People on BlueSky: AI is useless! A stochastic parrot!
Mathematicians/biologists/physicists: It is already helping us do frontier technical research and in some cases solve open problems arxiv.org/pdf/2511.16072
(There are of course, as always, many caveats, but the paper is genuinely remarkable)
Mathematicians/biologists/physicists: It is already helping us do frontier technical research and in some cases solve open problems arxiv.org/pdf/2511.16072
(There are of course, as always, many caveats, but the paper is genuinely remarkable)
arxiv.org
November 26, 2025 at 4:11 PM
the genAI bubble relies on you conflating the genuinely tremendous potential of using machine learning for e.g. image recognition in radiotherapy, protein folding, simulations in power systems etc with the child abuse image generators and schizophrenic delusions generators
Reposted by Utopian Incrementalist
RFK Jr. is neither a joke nor a well-intentioned proponent of public health with a few kooky beliefs. He's a menace, evil even by the standards of Trump's inner circle, and the failure of the political press to convey this is maddening
I actually think it’s okay to take a ridiculous scandal seriously when it involves a wingnut conspiracy theorist in charge of things like vaccine policy and pandemic preparedness
Sorry to be a wet blanket 🤷🏻♀️
Sorry to be a wet blanket 🤷🏻♀️
She never misses a beat, of course, but Marina's first paragraph this week is *chef's kiss*
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
November 25, 2025 at 11:44 PM
RFK Jr. is neither a joke nor a well-intentioned proponent of public health with a few kooky beliefs. He's a menace, evil even by the standards of Trump's inner circle, and the failure of the political press to convey this is maddening
I would phrase this idea differently. I don't believe there is an innate human need for religion (there are some fascinating books on the question). But there is a drive to find purpose in one's life. Religion used to absorb more of that drive, but its decline leaves many people looking elsewhere.
The decline of religion as a source of meaning in people's lives remains underrated as a factor shaping society. The need doesn't go away - they just seek it out elsewhere in (often false) health/wellness beliefs, (often highly polarized/conflictual) politics, etc. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/25/o...
November 25, 2025 at 3:42 PM
I would phrase this idea differently. I don't believe there is an innate human need for religion (there are some fascinating books on the question). But there is a drive to find purpose in one's life. Religion used to absorb more of that drive, but its decline leaves many people looking elsewhere.
Reposted by Utopian Incrementalist
I suspect that economic optimism has a lot to do with levels of equality and rates of economic growth. It's much easier to be optimistic when the economy is growing and gains are shared broadly. See, for example, this chart:
November 25, 2025 at 8:00 AM
I suspect that economic optimism has a lot to do with levels of equality and rates of economic growth. It's much easier to be optimistic when the economy is growing and gains are shared broadly. See, for example, this chart:
Not a big shocker, but I suspect that much or most of this decline is technology driven. So many forms of highly stimulating entertainment make reading feel dull by comparison. These stats also reflect a decline in reading culture more generally. What adults enjoy doing affects children.
A very good, and rather sad, Big Read on children and reading from @emmavj.bsky.social
on.ft.com/4krOKZA How to get children reading again
on.ft.com/4krOKZA How to get children reading again
November 25, 2025 at 8:10 AM
Not a big shocker, but I suspect that much or most of this decline is technology driven. So many forms of highly stimulating entertainment make reading feel dull by comparison. These stats also reflect a decline in reading culture more generally. What adults enjoy doing affects children.
Reposted by Utopian Incrementalist
A very good, and rather sad, Big Read on children and reading from @emmavj.bsky.social
on.ft.com/4krOKZA How to get children reading again
on.ft.com/4krOKZA How to get children reading again
July 4, 2025 at 7:20 AM
A very good, and rather sad, Big Read on children and reading from @emmavj.bsky.social
on.ft.com/4krOKZA How to get children reading again
on.ft.com/4krOKZA How to get children reading again
Reposted by Utopian Incrementalist
New from 404 Media: X has shown where accounts are actually being run from, revealing many MAGA accounts are actually grifters in Eastern Europe, Asia, etc. But the situation is much, much worse. Entire guides specifically on how to squeeze US audiences with AI.
www.404media.co/americas-pol...
www.404media.co/americas-pol...
America’s Polarization Has Become the World's Side Hustle
The 'psyops' revealed by X are entirely the fault of the perverse incentives created by social media monetization programs.
www.404media.co
November 24, 2025 at 6:52 PM
New from 404 Media: X has shown where accounts are actually being run from, revealing many MAGA accounts are actually grifters in Eastern Europe, Asia, etc. But the situation is much, much worse. Entire guides specifically on how to squeeze US audiences with AI.
www.404media.co/americas-pol...
www.404media.co/americas-pol...
Character education is not really something that schools can do in a larger sense. Characters are formed when children are socialized in the right ways, through their parents, family, communities, and society. These frameworks can help children to develop desirable traits.
November 24, 2025 at 10:00 PM
Character education is not really something that schools can do in a larger sense. Characters are formed when children are socialized in the right ways, through their parents, family, communities, and society. These frameworks can help children to develop desirable traits.
Reposted by Utopian Incrementalist
Although the scale of this is still to be assessed, this is the inevitable outcome of the monetization of the algorithm. Rage-bait becomes a personal revenue model. Nothing about this should be a surprise.
NEWS: I spent the past 24 hours going through major MAGA accounts on Twitter, and a bombshell development has become clear: most of the right-wing ecosphere is being fed propaganda from foreign actors.
This impacts elections. This impacts discourse. This is major. Subscribe to support my work:
This impacts elections. This impacts discourse. This is major. Subscribe to support my work:
NEWS: Major MAGA Accounts on Twitter Exposed as Foreign Actors
A stunning development over the past 24 hours.
open.substack.com
November 23, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Although the scale of this is still to be assessed, this is the inevitable outcome of the monetization of the algorithm. Rage-bait becomes a personal revenue model. Nothing about this should be a surprise.
Teachers need to be brutally realistic about why students use LLMs (and other forms of cheating).
1. It's easier. It saves time and effort. If the chances of getting caught are low enough, then a certain percentage of students will take the shortcut.
1. It's easier. It saves time and effort. If the chances of getting caught are low enough, then a certain percentage of students will take the shortcut.
students know as well as anyone else that LLMs generate garbage. they also know what it is to be critical readers of others’ work, as anyone who has ever had students critique their classmates’ work will attest. there are many reasons they use LLMs, but i totally agree that naïveté isn’t among them.
There’s not “a way” to solve this. Maybe it’s salutary to reflect together on an LLM’s faulty response, I don’t know. (I personally don’t like compelling students to use the tool.) But anyone who thinks this will “solve” the issue of cheating with LLMs has not been in a classroom lately.
November 24, 2025 at 5:40 PM
Teachers need to be brutally realistic about why students use LLMs (and other forms of cheating).
1. It's easier. It saves time and effort. If the chances of getting caught are low enough, then a certain percentage of students will take the shortcut.
1. It's easier. It saves time and effort. If the chances of getting caught are low enough, then a certain percentage of students will take the shortcut.
Reposted by Utopian Incrementalist
This chart (which applies even more to social media than it did to TV) lives in my head rent free.
Social media enveloping traditional media means everything and everyone is now competing in the entertainment market. Boring stuff like policy that affects millions of lives doesn’t stand a chance.
Social media enveloping traditional media means everything and everyone is now competing in the entertainment market. Boring stuff like policy that affects millions of lives doesn’t stand a chance.
November 23, 2025 at 8:24 PM
This chart (which applies even more to social media than it did to TV) lives in my head rent free.
Social media enveloping traditional media means everything and everyone is now competing in the entertainment market. Boring stuff like policy that affects millions of lives doesn’t stand a chance.
Social media enveloping traditional media means everything and everyone is now competing in the entertainment market. Boring stuff like policy that affects millions of lives doesn’t stand a chance.
Reposted by Utopian Incrementalist
"The high-income admissions advantage at Ivy-Plus colleges is driven by....(1) preferences for children of alumni, (2) weight placed on non-academic credentials, and (3) athletic recruitment" which are "uncorrelated or negatively correlated with post-college outcomes" unlike SAT/ACT scores
Recently accepted by #QJE, “Diversifying Society’s Leaders? The Determinants and Causal Effects of Admission to Highly Selective Private Colleges,” by Chetty (@Oppinsights), Deming, and Friedman: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
Diversifying Society’s Leaders? The Determinants and Causal Effects of Admission to Highly Selective Private Colleges*
Abstract. We use anonymized admissions data from several colleges linked to income tax records and SAT and ACT test scores to study the determinants and ca
doi.org
November 23, 2025 at 9:29 PM
"The high-income admissions advantage at Ivy-Plus colleges is driven by....(1) preferences for children of alumni, (2) weight placed on non-academic credentials, and (3) athletic recruitment" which are "uncorrelated or negatively correlated with post-college outcomes" unlike SAT/ACT scores
Reposted by Utopian Incrementalist
It remains insane to me that DOGE was treated at the time as an impressive shock and awe accomplishment - “you can’t deny he’s getting stuff done!” - and then instantly memory holed by the press once if became clear it was a total failure by every possible standard including Musk’s own
Difficult to overstate how profound a failure DOGE was. Spending in FY2025 was not only than in FY2024 – but higher than it was projected to be when Trump first took office.*
The little bit of spending DOGE cut has already killed hundreds of thousands and will eventually lead to millions of deaths.
The little bit of spending DOGE cut has already killed hundreds of thousands and will eventually lead to millions of deaths.
Bye bye, “DOGE”.
It no longer exists as a “centralized entity”, according to the Office of Personnel Management.
@reuters.com
www.reuters.com/world/us/dog...
It no longer exists as a “centralized entity”, according to the Office of Personnel Management.
@reuters.com
www.reuters.com/world/us/dog...
November 23, 2025 at 3:52 PM
It remains insane to me that DOGE was treated at the time as an impressive shock and awe accomplishment - “you can’t deny he’s getting stuff done!” - and then instantly memory holed by the press once if became clear it was a total failure by every possible standard including Musk’s own
Mock plea bargaining programs might be more informative than mock trial programs since 95% of criminal cases now end in a plea bargain agreement.
A month-long moot court program in New York City lets students prosecute — and defend — cases, offering real-world lessons in how government works. n.pr/3JRxrFb
This civics competition lets high school students have their day in court
A month-long moot court program in New York City lets students prosecute — and defend — cases, offering real-world lessons in how government works.
n.pr
November 23, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Mock plea bargaining programs might be more informative than mock trial programs since 95% of criminal cases now end in a plea bargain agreement.
I think we'll also see a growing divergence at the secondary level between schools that lean into and those that lean away from AI, LLMs, and digital forms of education. There'll be a premium on traditional forms of education that emphasize human interaction, physical books, and independent thought.
My hot take is that over the next 10 years, we're going to see more emphasis on and investment in the humanities at Ivy League and other fancy schools just as state schools and small privates continue to decimate and even eliminate the humanities.
"While other universities report that the humanities are shrinking, at Berkeley, the opposite is true. The music major is the fastest-growing major on campus. We are finding bigger classrooms because film is exploding. English is back to the numbers we saw 15 years ago. We are hiring" bit.ly/4ohKuOe
November 23, 2025 at 5:03 PM
I think we'll also see a growing divergence at the secondary level between schools that lean into and those that lean away from AI, LLMs, and digital forms of education. There'll be a premium on traditional forms of education that emphasize human interaction, physical books, and independent thought.
Reposted by Utopian Incrementalist
y'know, if tech companies weren't so fired up to call every single thing "AI" it would be a lot easier to distinguish "ML spam filter that is well-sandboxed and tuned on your emails" from "giant context and IP-eroding foundation model that makes people paranoid and unhappy"
since the "google is now training gemini on your email contents" thing keeps bumping around here: it's _not happening_. I say this not to defend google but because I know a lot of people that have broken their filtering and made their lives much more annoying from sheer misinformation.
The malwarebytes Google opting-your-emails-into-ai-training thing is not true. The post is based on one bad tweet.
I know anti-tech lamenting is a Bluesky core principle, but please use the same judgement you would for any other clickbait.
www.theverge.com/news/826902/...
I know anti-tech lamenting is a Bluesky core principle, but please use the same judgement you would for any other clickbait.
www.theverge.com/news/826902/...
November 23, 2025 at 12:58 PM
y'know, if tech companies weren't so fired up to call every single thing "AI" it would be a lot easier to distinguish "ML spam filter that is well-sandboxed and tuned on your emails" from "giant context and IP-eroding foundation model that makes people paranoid and unhappy"
Reposted by Utopian Incrementalist
One should be worried about the collapse of democracy and the metastasis of autocracy long before it reaches the terminal stage of Nazi Germany, Stalin's USSR, Mao's China, or Pol Pot's Cambodia.
Tyler Cowen saying again that there is no threat to democracy marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevo... because Trump is facing opposition and is sensitive to public opinion, but this is how competitive authoritarianism works. Please consult @dziblatt.bsky.social or @stevelevitsky.bsky.social!
November 23, 2025 at 3:03 AM
One should be worried about the collapse of democracy and the metastasis of autocracy long before it reaches the terminal stage of Nazi Germany, Stalin's USSR, Mao's China, or Pol Pot's Cambodia.
Reposted by Utopian Incrementalist
Tyler Cowen saying again that there is no threat to democracy marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevo... because Trump is facing opposition and is sensitive to public opinion, but this is how competitive authoritarianism works. Please consult @dziblatt.bsky.social or @stevelevitsky.bsky.social!
November 21, 2025 at 1:54 AM
Tyler Cowen saying again that there is no threat to democracy marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevo... because Trump is facing opposition and is sensitive to public opinion, but this is how competitive authoritarianism works. Please consult @dziblatt.bsky.social or @stevelevitsky.bsky.social!
Reposted by Utopian Incrementalist
This Pope guy has some bangers
November 22, 2025 at 1:05 AM
This Pope guy has some bangers
When I am feeling pessimistic, I sometimes think of a Paris Review interview of Paul Bowles that has stuck in my mind. When the interviewer asks Bowles how he feels toward America, Bowles suggests that for someone in love with a time and a place, change inevitably becomes a type of loss.
This is what makes the fight so difficult. We are not just trying to hold the line on reading books in school; we are facing all of the cultural forces telling people that reading and all of the habits it inculcates are no longer important, that they are obsolete and not worth preserving.
November 21, 2025 at 3:35 AM
When I am feeling pessimistic, I sometimes think of a Paris Review interview of Paul Bowles that has stuck in my mind. When the interviewer asks Bowles how he feels toward America, Bowles suggests that for someone in love with a time and a place, change inevitably becomes a type of loss.
There's not much point in trying to engage in reasoned debate with leftists who think the Democrats are just as bad as the Republicans. They are largely unpersuadable and unlikely to provide much insight. The best strategy is to just block and forget. You will make better use of your time.
November 21, 2025 at 3:06 AM
There's not much point in trying to engage in reasoned debate with leftists who think the Democrats are just as bad as the Republicans. They are largely unpersuadable and unlikely to provide much insight. The best strategy is to just block and forget. You will make better use of your time.
Although more information is always helpful, I think that we have known for a while that close elections turn on the votes of the people with low ideological commitment and weak engagement. The problem is that such information doesn't get us very far in figuring out how to win their votes.
Good morning. I've got a banger new post out today that develops a new method for placing voters on the left-right ideological spectrum, and adds a new, "non-ideological"/affordability axis to usual way we chart & think about US voters (esp swing voters). www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-l...
Not just left vs right: Most voters think about affordability and material wellbeing, not in ideological terms
Most voters want a party that emphasizes cost of living issues and makes the world a better place. Few Americans think in solidly ideologically terms. "Moderates" are mostly non-ideological.
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 21, 2025 at 12:13 AM
Although more information is always helpful, I think that we have known for a while that close elections turn on the votes of the people with low ideological commitment and weak engagement. The problem is that such information doesn't get us very far in figuring out how to win their votes.
Reposted by Utopian Incrementalist
Attention is on NEETs today, but the problem is much worse.
NEETs include stay-at-home parents & jobseekers.
Strip those out to focus on people not working, not seeking work, not in education & not parenting: this group of economically & socially dislocated young adults has *doubled* in a decade.
NEETs include stay-at-home parents & jobseekers.
Strip those out to focus on people not working, not seeking work, not in education & not parenting: this group of economically & socially dislocated young adults has *doubled* in a decade.
November 20, 2025 at 10:25 AM
Attention is on NEETs today, but the problem is much worse.
NEETs include stay-at-home parents & jobseekers.
Strip those out to focus on people not working, not seeking work, not in education & not parenting: this group of economically & socially dislocated young adults has *doubled* in a decade.
NEETs include stay-at-home parents & jobseekers.
Strip those out to focus on people not working, not seeking work, not in education & not parenting: this group of economically & socially dislocated young adults has *doubled* in a decade.