Leipzig Institute for Meteorology
@meteoleipzig.bsky.social
All things blue sky from Leipzig University's experts on weather, climate & society 🌍 🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️🌪⛈🌤☀️
#ClimateAttribution #PolarClimateChange #Clouds&Climate #ClimComms
https://www.physes.uni-leipzig.de/institut-fuer-meteo
#ClimateAttribution #PolarClimateChange #Clouds&Climate #ClimComms
https://www.physes.uni-leipzig.de/institut-fuer-meteo
Pinned
Heatwaves linked to emissions of individual fossil-fuel and cement producers | Nature
The emissions of leading fossil-fuel and cement producers have been systematically linked to particular heatwaves. Three scientists discuss the methodology behind the result and its potential impact on climate-liability court cases. The emissions of leading fossil-fuel and cement producers have been systematically linked to particular heatwaves. Three scientists discuss the methodology behind the result and its potential impact on climate-liability court cases.
rdcu.be
Using years of experience in attribution science, a comprehensive study that links heat waves to individual emitters (ie fossil fuel producers) has just been published by @yannquilcaille.bsky.social et al. A systematic step forward as highlighted in my @nature.com News&Views article:
rdcu.be/eFpWu
rdcu.be/eFpWu
New paper alert: b.tellusjournals.se/articles/10....
Aerosols have an actual warming effect in the Arctic in winter: Changed dynamics via shift in the jet stream position (which in turn projects on the Arctic Oscillation index —> more positive)
@jquaas.bsky.social @khaustein.bsky.social
Aerosols have an actual warming effect in the Arctic in winter: Changed dynamics via shift in the jet stream position (which in turn projects on the Arctic Oscillation index —> more positive)
@jquaas.bsky.social @khaustein.bsky.social
Exploring the Sensitivity of Arctic Winter Climate to Aerosol Loading as Simulated in CMIP6 | Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology
b.tellusjournals.se
November 25, 2025 at 2:19 PM
New paper alert: b.tellusjournals.se/articles/10....
Aerosols have an actual warming effect in the Arctic in winter: Changed dynamics via shift in the jet stream position (which in turn projects on the Arctic Oscillation index —> more positive)
@jquaas.bsky.social @khaustein.bsky.social
Aerosols have an actual warming effect in the Arctic in winter: Changed dynamics via shift in the jet stream position (which in turn projects on the Arctic Oscillation index —> more positive)
@jquaas.bsky.social @khaustein.bsky.social
Reposted by Leipzig Institute for Meteorology
Global trade could lose $14B/yr from disruptions at maritime chokepoints like the Suez and Bab el-Mandeb. New ECI study shows how conflict, piracy & extreme weather ripple through supply chains. By Dr Jasper Verschuur, Dr Johannes Lumma & Prof Jim Hall.
➡️https://tinyurl.com/96amj8sz
➡️https://tinyurl.com/96amj8sz
November 25, 2025 at 9:47 AM
Global trade could lose $14B/yr from disruptions at maritime chokepoints like the Suez and Bab el-Mandeb. New ECI study shows how conflict, piracy & extreme weather ripple through supply chains. By Dr Jasper Verschuur, Dr Johannes Lumma & Prof Jim Hall.
➡️https://tinyurl.com/96amj8sz
➡️https://tinyurl.com/96amj8sz
Reposted by Leipzig Institute for Meteorology
"The cost of removing large quantities of CO2 from the air will fall in the medium term, but not as much as previously hoped.
This is the conclusion reached by @ethz.ch researchers on the basis of new calculations. Efforts to reduce carbon emissions should therefore continue at pace"
This is the conclusion reached by @ethz.ch researchers on the basis of new calculations. Efforts to reduce carbon emissions should therefore continue at pace"
Cost of direct air carbon capture to remain higher than hoped
The cost of removing large quantities of CO2 from the air will fall in the medium term, but not as much as previously hoped. This is the conclusion reached by ETH researchers on the basis of new calcu...
ethz.ch
November 25, 2025 at 6:37 AM
"The cost of removing large quantities of CO2 from the air will fall in the medium term, but not as much as previously hoped.
This is the conclusion reached by @ethz.ch researchers on the basis of new calculations. Efforts to reduce carbon emissions should therefore continue at pace"
This is the conclusion reached by @ethz.ch researchers on the basis of new calculations. Efforts to reduce carbon emissions should therefore continue at pace"
Reposted by Leipzig Institute for Meteorology
🌳How the Roman Empire Reshaped Europe's Woodlands🌳
More than 20,000 (!!!) tree-ring dated archaeological timbers tell the story of dramatic deforestation and forest recovery, for over a millennium (300 BCE–700 CE).
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
#dendrochronology #Roman #archaeology #ForestHistory
More than 20,000 (!!!) tree-ring dated archaeological timbers tell the story of dramatic deforestation and forest recovery, for over a millennium (300 BCE–700 CE).
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
#dendrochronology #Roman #archaeology #ForestHistory
Woodlands of Antiquity: A millennium of dendrochronological data on forest exploitation and timber economy between the Alps and the Atlantic | PNAS
The Roman Empire dominated large parts of western and central Europe for over half
a millennium, leaving a lasting cultural imprint on the continen...
www.pnas.org
November 25, 2025 at 7:31 AM
🌳How the Roman Empire Reshaped Europe's Woodlands🌳
More than 20,000 (!!!) tree-ring dated archaeological timbers tell the story of dramatic deforestation and forest recovery, for over a millennium (300 BCE–700 CE).
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
#dendrochronology #Roman #archaeology #ForestHistory
More than 20,000 (!!!) tree-ring dated archaeological timbers tell the story of dramatic deforestation and forest recovery, for over a millennium (300 BCE–700 CE).
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
#dendrochronology #Roman #archaeology #ForestHistory
Reposted by Leipzig Institute for Meteorology
Always fascinating when a volcano erupts for the first time in recorded history, as we have little clue as to how the eruption will develop
Watch this space 😊
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
Watch this space 😊
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
Ethiopian volcano erupts for first time in 12,000 years
Ash clouds from Hayli Gubbi volcano sent drifting across the Red Sea toward Yemen and Oman
www.theguardian.com
November 25, 2025 at 8:28 AM
Always fascinating when a volcano erupts for the first time in recorded history, as we have little clue as to how the eruption will develop
Watch this space 😊
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
Watch this space 😊
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
Reposted by Leipzig Institute for Meteorology
Extreme day-to-day temperature swings are becoming more frequent and intense due to Global warming, impacting human health, ecosystems, and resilience.
By 2100, these changes could increase by 17%, affecting 80% of the global population.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
By 2100, these changes could increase by 17%, affecting 80% of the global population.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Global warming intensifies extreme day-to-day temperature changes in mid–low latitudes - Nature Climate Change
Climate change is expected to lead to higher day-to-day temperature variability in mid- to low latitudes. Here the authors show that extreme day-to-day temperature changes have distinct impacts on hum...
www.nature.com
November 24, 2025 at 5:44 AM
Extreme day-to-day temperature swings are becoming more frequent and intense due to Global warming, impacting human health, ecosystems, and resilience.
By 2100, these changes could increase by 17%, affecting 80% of the global population.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
By 2100, these changes could increase by 17%, affecting 80% of the global population.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Leipzig Institute for Meteorology
Now that we are likely to cross 1.5°C, there is increasing discussion on "overshoot".
There is a lot of uncertainties on overshoot, but there is one thing that we are 100% sure about:
GHG emissions need to go down >90% in decades for overshoot to be a reality.
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
There is a lot of uncertainties on overshoot, but there is one thing that we are 100% sure about:
GHG emissions need to go down >90% in decades for overshoot to be a reality.
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
November 24, 2025 at 8:13 AM
Now that we are likely to cross 1.5°C, there is increasing discussion on "overshoot".
There is a lot of uncertainties on overshoot, but there is one thing that we are 100% sure about:
GHG emissions need to go down >90% in decades for overshoot to be a reality.
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
There is a lot of uncertainties on overshoot, but there is one thing that we are 100% sure about:
GHG emissions need to go down >90% in decades for overshoot to be a reality.
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
Reposted by Leipzig Institute for Meteorology
The other certainty about overshoot is that even if we eventually get back to 1.5°C, a lot more people will suffer because we didn’t reduce emissions earlier and more rapidly.
Now that we are likely to cross 1.5°C, there is increasing discussion on "overshoot".
There is a lot of uncertainties on overshoot, but there is one thing that we are 100% sure about:
GHG emissions need to go down >90% in decades for overshoot to be a reality.
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
There is a lot of uncertainties on overshoot, but there is one thing that we are 100% sure about:
GHG emissions need to go down >90% in decades for overshoot to be a reality.
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
November 24, 2025 at 9:02 AM
The other certainty about overshoot is that even if we eventually get back to 1.5°C, a lot more people will suffer because we didn’t reduce emissions earlier and more rapidly.
Reposted by Leipzig Institute for Meteorology
Climate change is bad.
Our Almost-Apocalyptic Climate Future
By shooting for 3 degrees Celsius of warming, the world could slide toward a more cataclysmic 4 degrees.
www.theatlantic.com
November 24, 2025 at 9:39 AM
Climate change is bad.
Reposted by Leipzig Institute for Meteorology
Two years ago, we did a study on a devastating drought in the Fertil Crescent. Due to climate change and water governance disputes the drought is still ongoing. Teheran might be running out of water, if it doesn't start raining soon. Our update: www.worldweatherattribution.org/human-induce...
November 21, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Two years ago, we did a study on a devastating drought in the Fertil Crescent. Due to climate change and water governance disputes the drought is still ongoing. Teheran might be running out of water, if it doesn't start raining soon. Our update: www.worldweatherattribution.org/human-induce...
Reposted by Leipzig Institute for Meteorology
🌊 Ocean submesoscales as drivers of submarine melting within Antarctic ice cavities
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Ocean submesoscales as drivers of submarine melting within Antarctic ice cavities - Nature Geoscience
Submesoscale ocean features deliver heat beneath Thwaites Ice Shelf and contribute to submarine melting, according to numerical modelling combined with available observations.
www.nature.com
November 21, 2025 at 7:55 AM
🌊 Ocean submesoscales as drivers of submarine melting within Antarctic ice cavities
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Leipzig Institute for Meteorology
Reposted by Leipzig Institute for Meteorology
Where are global CO2 emissions heading?
Middle-of-the-road? But just because we have followed the SSP2-45, SSP4-60 path for 10 years, does not mean we follow it for the next 70 years.
Policy & technology have pushed the world away from the high-end, but 2.7C in 2100 & rising is not a good outcome!
Middle-of-the-road? But just because we have followed the SSP2-45, SSP4-60 path for 10 years, does not mean we follow it for the next 70 years.
Policy & technology have pushed the world away from the high-end, but 2.7C in 2100 & rising is not a good outcome!
November 21, 2025 at 9:07 AM
Where are global CO2 emissions heading?
Middle-of-the-road? But just because we have followed the SSP2-45, SSP4-60 path for 10 years, does not mean we follow it for the next 70 years.
Policy & technology have pushed the world away from the high-end, but 2.7C in 2100 & rising is not a good outcome!
Middle-of-the-road? But just because we have followed the SSP2-45, SSP4-60 path for 10 years, does not mean we follow it for the next 70 years.
Policy & technology have pushed the world away from the high-end, but 2.7C in 2100 & rising is not a good outcome!
Reposted by Leipzig Institute for Meteorology
As well as protecting health, China’s efforts at cleaning up aerosol particle pollution has restored sunlight to Pacific Ocean, once robbed by the haze that was artificially brightening clouds, which unfortunately adds to warming - @uk.theconversation.com podcast:
theconversation.com/how-china-cl...
theconversation.com/how-china-cl...
How China cleaned up its air pollution – and what that meant for the climate
Atmospheric scientist Laura Wilcox talks to The Conversation Weekly about the measures China took to improve its air pollution – and the unintended consequences for the climate.
theconversation.com
November 21, 2025 at 9:13 AM
As well as protecting health, China’s efforts at cleaning up aerosol particle pollution has restored sunlight to Pacific Ocean, once robbed by the haze that was artificially brightening clouds, which unfortunately adds to warming - @uk.theconversation.com podcast:
theconversation.com/how-china-cl...
theconversation.com/how-china-cl...
Reposted by Leipzig Institute for Meteorology
America is responsible for the largest volume of carbon dioxide currently sitting in the atmosphere, trapping heat and causing disasters and death
robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2025/
robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2025/
November 19, 2025 at 1:39 PM
America is responsible for the largest volume of carbon dioxide currently sitting in the atmosphere, trapping heat and causing disasters and death
robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2025/
robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2025/
Reposted by Leipzig Institute for Meteorology
You might also be interested to see how technological optimism interacts with support for climate stringency among COP delegates: doi.org/10.1038/s418...
Technology-minded climate delegates support less stringent climate policies - Nature Sustainability
Within high-level conferences devoted to climate or sustainability action, differences in views can lead to differences in policy. This study surveyed how delegates at COP24 perceived the efficacy of ...
doi.org
November 20, 2025 at 9:04 AM
You might also be interested to see how technological optimism interacts with support for climate stringency among COP delegates: doi.org/10.1038/s418...
Reposted by Leipzig Institute for Meteorology
Important new paper shows that mass casualties from extreme heat are likely at the current level of global warming and will only get worse the more the world warms: “mass mortality events remain plausible at near-future temperatures despite current adaptations to heat”
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
November 19, 2025 at 10:55 AM
Important new paper shows that mass casualties from extreme heat are likely at the current level of global warming and will only get worse the more the world warms: “mass mortality events remain plausible at near-future temperatures despite current adaptations to heat”
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Leipzig Institute for Meteorology
It’s almost like something dramatically changed after the Industrial Revolution! (figure via Ed Hawkins)
November 18, 2025 at 4:53 PM
It’s almost like something dramatically changed after the Industrial Revolution! (figure via Ed Hawkins)
Reposted by Leipzig Institute for Meteorology
ECMWF ensembles continue confident we'll get at least very close to a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) by the end of the month, although the surface impacts will depend on the details of the event (and a significant dash of randomness).
November 18, 2025 at 6:59 PM
ECMWF ensembles continue confident we'll get at least very close to a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) by the end of the month, although the surface impacts will depend on the details of the event (and a significant dash of randomness).
Reposted by Leipzig Institute for Meteorology
An excellent summary by @climateadam.bsky.social
Climate change isn't tomorrow's problem. It is killing people today.
youtu.be/ClZGMeiFT6w?...
Climate change isn't tomorrow's problem. It is killing people today.
youtu.be/ClZGMeiFT6w?...
Why the Climate Crisis is a Health Crisis
YouTube video by ClimateAdam
youtu.be
November 19, 2025 at 10:40 AM
An excellent summary by @climateadam.bsky.social
Climate change isn't tomorrow's problem. It is killing people today.
youtu.be/ClZGMeiFT6w?...
Climate change isn't tomorrow's problem. It is killing people today.
youtu.be/ClZGMeiFT6w?...
Reposted by Leipzig Institute for Meteorology
Many congratulations to the amazing @frediotto.bsky.social for receiving the Hans Oeschger Medal! This career award from the @egu.eu Climate Division underlines the ground-breaking research Fredi did on many fronts, most notably on near-realtime extreme event attribution @wwattribution.bsky.social
I've got a medal! And not just any, but the Hans Oeschger Medal from the EGU, for outstanding contributions to research on climatic changes. www.egu.eu/news/1551/eg...
November 13, 2025 at 8:07 AM
Many congratulations to the amazing @frediotto.bsky.social for receiving the Hans Oeschger Medal! This career award from the @egu.eu Climate Division underlines the ground-breaking research Fredi did on many fronts, most notably on near-realtime extreme event attribution @wwattribution.bsky.social
Reposted by Leipzig Institute for Meteorology
Shortly before hurricane Melissa hit the Caribbean, capturing global media attention, Mexico suffered from severed flooding, killing more than 78 people and destroying infrastructure; disproportionally affecting indigenous communities.
www.worldweatherattribution.org/heavy-rainfa...
www.worldweatherattribution.org/heavy-rainfa...
November 13, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Shortly before hurricane Melissa hit the Caribbean, capturing global media attention, Mexico suffered from severed flooding, killing more than 78 people and destroying infrastructure; disproportionally affecting indigenous communities.
www.worldweatherattribution.org/heavy-rainfa...
www.worldweatherattribution.org/heavy-rainfa...
Reposted by Leipzig Institute for Meteorology
Excited to announce a webinar with Dr. Davide Faranda.
• Tuesday 9 December 2025
• 15:00 CET
• Online via Zoom – open to all
Registration: www.egu.eu/webinars/649...
#EGU #EarlyCareerScientists #ScienceLeadership #InclusiveScience #AcademicEvents #SciComm
• Tuesday 9 December 2025
• 15:00 CET
• Online via Zoom – open to all
Registration: www.egu.eu/webinars/649...
#EGU #EarlyCareerScientists #ScienceLeadership #InclusiveScience #AcademicEvents #SciComm
November 13, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Excited to announce a webinar with Dr. Davide Faranda.
• Tuesday 9 December 2025
• 15:00 CET
• Online via Zoom – open to all
Registration: www.egu.eu/webinars/649...
#EGU #EarlyCareerScientists #ScienceLeadership #InclusiveScience #AcademicEvents #SciComm
• Tuesday 9 December 2025
• 15:00 CET
• Online via Zoom – open to all
Registration: www.egu.eu/webinars/649...
#EGU #EarlyCareerScientists #ScienceLeadership #InclusiveScience #AcademicEvents #SciComm
Reposted by Leipzig Institute for Meteorology
Reposted by Leipzig Institute for Meteorology
NEW | No growth for fossil fuels in global electricity generation expected in 2025 🔥❌
Ember forecasts no increase in fossil generation as wind and solar are growing fast enough to meet all new electricity demand.
Ember forecasts no increase in fossil generation as wind and solar are growing fast enough to meet all new electricity demand.
November 13, 2025 at 8:36 AM
NEW | No growth for fossil fuels in global electricity generation expected in 2025 🔥❌
Ember forecasts no increase in fossil generation as wind and solar are growing fast enough to meet all new electricity demand.
Ember forecasts no increase in fossil generation as wind and solar are growing fast enough to meet all new electricity demand.