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Reposted by Nicholas Emery-Xu

Timothy Snyder @timothysnyder.bsky.social · 21h

When Putin talks to a Russians he consistently says that they invade Ukraine to destroy the state and nation and correct the path of history. NATO and similar framings are just for the useful foreigners.

Maria Popova @popovaprof.bsky.social · 10d

Pu spells out Ru's imperialist motivations for the war. He calls the conquest a long-held dream and historical destiny.

He beclowns those who insist NATO expansion caused the war. Let's see if anyone from the Mearsheimer fan club admits the claim has been falsified.
www.kremlin.ru/events/presi...

Обращение по случаю Дня воссоединения ДНР, ЛНР, Запорожской и Херсонской областей с Россией

www.kremlin.ru

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Reposted by Nicholas Emery-Xu

Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 1d

The other day a student asked me about the prevalence of insider trading in prediction markets. I now have an answer.

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Nicholas Emery-Xu @nicholaskemery.bsky.social · 1d

Statista says these firms are 75% of the French market in 2025, with another 13% coming from Alibaba.

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Nicholas Emery-Xu @nicholaskemery.bsky.social · 1d

I only observe the big 3 (Google, MS, AWS) and IBM

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Nicholas Emery-Xu @nicholaskemery.bsky.social · 1d

Cloud exit rates are <5% in my sample, though I only have 5 years of data. The IaaS/PaaS market keeps increasing in size through 2024, though not sure if this is existing firms using cloud more or new firms entering.

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Nicholas Emery-Xu @nicholaskemery.bsky.social · 1d

Cloud demand has been skyrocketing, especially post-COVID:

Nicholas Emery-Xu @nicholaskemery.bsky.social · Aug 1

A counterpoint to the slow diffusion of technology narrative is the extremely fast growth of infrastructure as a service (IaaS). In my data on large French firms, I find usage increases from 1.2% in 2017 to 22.3% in 2021! And a large minority of firms adopt multiple providers.

Plot showing IaaS adoption among a sample of French firms from 2017-2021, rising from 1.2% in 2017 to over 22% in 2021.

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Nicholas Emery-Xu @nicholaskemery.bsky.social · 2d

I at least want life sentences. At best the full confiscation of the Musk and Trump assets, to be repaid to
the loved ones of all those killed according to the value the US government places on a human life, which seems to be around USD 10 million.

jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 3d

i desperately want everyone involved in the destruction of USAID to have to, st the very least, answer to the american people for the suffering and misery they have caused apnews.com/article/myan...

Starving children screaming for food as US aid cuts unleash devastation and death across Myanmar

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has repeatedly said “no one has died" because of his government’s decision to gut its foreign aid program.

apnews.com

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Nicholas Emery-Xu @nicholaskemery.bsky.social · 3d

Hey Pam Bondi, when you get a break from the Esptein coverup, here’s that anti-Christian bias you were concerned about!

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Nicholas Emery-Xu @nicholaskemery.bsky.social · 3d

Ah fair enough!

Nicholas Emery-Xu @nicholaskemery.bsky.social · 3d

I agree with the policy prescriptions though. Those who illegally destroyed USAID must face consequences

Nicholas Emery-Xu @nicholaskemery.bsky.social · 3d

I disagree. It's because of what Elon did to USAID, which will likely cause the vast majority of deaths from Trump 2

ryan cooper @ryanlcooper.com · 4d

more and more I am convinced a good share of why Trump 2 is so much worse than before is because of what Elon did to Twitter. it's like those group chats where people gassed themselves up to join ISIS, scaled up a millionfold

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Nicholas Emery-Xu @nicholaskemery.bsky.social · 4d

And the more personalist it becomes the more likely this will be (Geddes et al 2018)

Stan Oklobdzija @stano.bsky.social · 4d

No political movement will collapse faster than Republicanism the moment Trump is out of the picture. All of his heirs can't wait to knife each other and none of them individually has even 10% of the juice that Trump has with the median chud voter.

Timothy Snyder @timothysnyder.bsky.social · 4d

Someone looking at all this with a cold eye might say that Miller and Hegseth are seeking control over the power ministries before a Vance ally invokes the 25th Amendment.

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Nicholas Emery-Xu @nicholaskemery.bsky.social · 5d

Do you have a link to one of these?

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Reposted by Nicholas Emery-Xu

Senator Chris Van Hollen @vanhollen.senate.gov · 10d

Everyone should read this devastating report: Trump’s sabotage of USAID stranded lifesaving medicines — fueling chaos and leaving children to die.

His policies are destroying our reputation and influence overseas and literally killing kids. No words.

Trump’s USAID pause stranded lifesaving drugs. Children died waiting.

USAID antimalarial and HIV supplies valued at nearly $140 million were delayed in the first half of the year or not delivered at all due to the Trump administration’s foreign aid pause, The Post found...

www.washingtonpost.com

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Nicholas Emery-Xu @nicholaskemery.bsky.social · 10d

As LLM videos improve, I wonder if 1) people will trust random stuff on the internet less and turn to sources with good reputations, 2) only believe AI videos that fit their priors, leading to greater echo chambers

At some point I need to sit down a sketch a model of this.

Drew Harwell @drewharwell.com · 10d

OpenAI employees are very excited about how well their new AI tool can create fake videos of people doing crimes and have definitely thought through all the implications of this

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Nicholas Emery-Xu @nicholaskemery.bsky.social · 11d

Local man who destroyed USAID knows what anti-Christian means. How cute!

Joel S. @joelhs.bsky.social · 11d

I sure hope the ADL is proud that they stuck up for Elon Musk when he did a Nazi salute back in January.

Tweet from Elon Musk: "The ADL hates Christians, therefore it is is a hate group"

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Nicholas Emery-Xu @nicholaskemery.bsky.social · 11d

No idea how tractable this is, or how to even go about this, but I hope some EA/global development money is funding research into this.

Nicholas Emery-Xu @nicholaskemery.bsky.social · 11d

I think a great EA project would be to more strongly tie Trump/MAGA to the destruction of USAID in Americans' minds.

It's great that the admin is so unpopular, but I'd guess it's mostly due to non-aid causes. To dissuade future aid cuts, making this issue more salient seems very high-impact.

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Nicholas Emery-Xu @nicholaskemery.bsky.social · 14d

Only question is, was he 5 or 10 beers in when he made these plans?

Nicholas Emery-Xu @nicholaskemery.bsky.social · 16d

So the official FDA position is: “Tylenol is ok, but only for those who know what a DAG is”

Steve Inskeep @steveinskeep.bsky.social · 18d

The FDA statement ends with a paragraph undermining its own warning.

They signal parents to avoid acetaminophen. Except sometimes. And then:

No “causal relationship… established” with ADHD or autism

AND

Alternatives to acetaminophen have “well-documented adverse impacts.”

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Nicholas Emery-Xu @nicholaskemery.bsky.social · 16d

Belarus could use a Gorbachev!

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Nicholas Emery-Xu @nicholaskemery.bsky.social · 18d

Those who cut foreign aid should experience consequences: commonslibrary.parliament.uk/uk-to-reduce...

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Reposted by Nicholas Emery-Xu

Dina Pomeranz @dinapomeranz.bsky.social · 20d

We're hiring a research associate or research manager for a project in the DRC! This is a great opportunity for anyone who is interested in gaining very hands-on research and work experience in a low-income country in partnership with the local government. Also a great preparation for a PhD.

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Nicholas Emery-Xu @nicholaskemery.bsky.social · 22d

(Answer is Rubio for USAID by a mile)

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Nicholas Emery-Xu @nicholaskemery.bsky.social · 22d

Hey hey USA!
How many kids will Trump kill today?

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