Nathan Davies
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nmkfdavies.bsky.social
Nathan Davies
@nmkfdavies.bsky.social
220 followers 330 following 83 posts
Public health registrar and NIHR Doctoral Fellow at the University of Nottingham. Commercial determinants of health, health inequalities, public health policy. In a state of total array
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Reposted by Nathan Davies
pwgtennant.bsky.social
Thrilled to share my latest paper entitled, "Estimating Discrimination in Sentencing: Distinguishing between Good and Bad Controls"

Led by @jpinasanchez.bsky.social, the paper introduces a framework for examining discrimination in criminal justice processes.

🧵 1/10

publicera.kb.se/ejels/articl...
Screenshot of title page including the following abstract: To minimise confounding bias and disentangle warranted from unwarranted disparities, researchers examining sentencing discrimination have traditionally sought to control for as many legal factors as possible. However, over the past decade, a growing number of scholars have questioned this strategy, noting that many legal factors are themselves subject to judicial discretion and that controlling for them can introduce post-treatment bias. Here, we use directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to provide a formal and comprehensive assessment of the different types of bias that may arise from different choices of controls. In addition, we propose a new modelling framework to facilitate the selection of controls and reflect the model uncertainty created by the trade-off inherent in judicially-defined legal factors and other factors with a similar dual causal role. We apply this framework to examine race disparities in US federal courts and gender disparities in the England and Wales magistrates’ court. We find substantial model uncertainty for gender disparities and for race disparities affecting Hispanic offenders, rendering estimates of the latter inconclusive. Disparities against black offenders are more consistent and — under specific conditions — could be interpreted as evidence of direct discrimination.
December 8, 2025 at 10:20 AM
nmkfdavies.bsky.social
In my piece on cryptocurrency as a commercial determinant of health, I noted that nearly all donations to Reform from 2019 to 2023 were from this man, Christopher Harborne.

The influence of crypto on current global politics has been severely underreported.

academic.oup.com/heapro/artic...
December 4, 2025 at 9:47 AM
Reposted by Nathan Davies
uk.theconversation.com
Play isn’t just for playgrounds.
Children should have a right to play in the streets, alleys, pavements and car parks of their neighbourhoods
Play isn’t just for playgrounds.
tcnv.link
October 23, 2025 at 6:59 AM
Reposted by Nathan Davies
victimofmaths.bsky.social
Lots of coverage today on these new government proposals to reform the alcohol licensing system.

I can see an inherent popular appeal to allowing pubs to stay open later, but I have a lot of thoughts about why these plans are an extremely bad idea..

www.theguardian.com/business/202...
Pubs to stay open until early hours in push for UK growth
Exclusive: Plans for England and Wales would help the ailing hospitality sector but have attracted criticism from health experts
www.theguardian.com
October 9, 2025 at 9:28 AM
Reposted by Nathan Davies
sophieehill.bsky.social
"Sweeteners can harm cognitive health equivalent to 1.6 years of ageing, study finds"

Or does it? Let's take a look at this "study"...

www.theguardian.com/food/2025/se...
Sweeteners can harm cognitive health equivalent to 1.6 years of ageing, study finds
Researchers say low- and no-calorie sweeteners appear to affect thinking and memory in middle age
www.theguardian.com
September 5, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Reposted by Nathan Davies
adamjkucharski.bsky.social
Results so stunningly clear they inspired this classic xkcd (xkcd.com/2400/):
September 1, 2025 at 7:32 PM
Reposted by Nathan Davies
ianwalker.bsky.social
It's disappointing that the government's plan to get people moving is focused around "Go for a jog" rather than, as the evidence suggests, building environments that encourage everyday incidental exercise: the ability to walk to amenities
liveapp.inews.co.uk/category/388...
Streeting’s bid to get Britain off the couch and save NHS £10bn
Health Secretary’s Get Britain Moving campaign could be undermined by difficulty to walk in some areas
liveapp.inews.co.uk
September 1, 2025 at 6:54 AM
Reposted by Nathan Davies
davemcelroy.bsky.social
Fixed the BBC headline for them. Not sure why we tolerate the gambling industry in its current form.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
July 24, 2025 at 9:14 AM
nmkfdavies.bsky.social
To those arguing that votes at 16 means explaining why voting should be set at a different age to marrying, serving in a combat role or buying cigarettes and alcohol (all 18)...

...sure!
July 18, 2025 at 10:07 AM
Reposted by Nathan Davies
petehusky.bsky.social
Whoever did this is genius

#nffc
July 11, 2025 at 8:31 AM
nmkfdavies.bsky.social
Pretty sensible guide to generative AI use in academic peer-reviewed journals

theconversation.com/can-academic...
Can academics use AI to write journal papers? What the guidelines say
When is it acceptable to use AI in academic publishing?
theconversation.com
June 27, 2025 at 7:22 PM
nmkfdavies.bsky.social
Guess which business Christopher Harborne, the biggest Reform UK donor of recent times, happens to be in? Surprised not to see this mentioned in the story.

www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Reform UK to accept donations via bitcoin, Nigel Farage says
Party leader says he wants UK to be a ‘crypto powerhouse’ during speech at Las Vegas conference
www.theguardian.com
May 30, 2025 at 12:07 PM
nmkfdavies.bsky.social
Labubus. I mean, at least they aren't Bored Apes?
May 29, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Reposted by Nathan Davies
lucyfoulkes.bsky.social
I’m in the Guardian today, arguing that we should stop them all-class mental health lessons in schools

I've thought very carefully about ‘going public’ with this, because it's a sensitive argument to make, especially in the face of so many young people struggling.

(cont 🧵)

tinyurl.com/vun92cz7
Mental-health lessons in schools sound like a great idea. The trouble is, they don’t work | Lucy Foulkes
All-class therapy sessions don’t help, and may even make matters worse. The evidence shows we need different solutions, says Dr Lucy Foulkes, an academic psychologist at Oxford University
www.theguardian.com
May 21, 2025 at 8:13 AM
nmkfdavies.bsky.social
This is a genuinely astonishing drop in weekend violence. Check out the magnitude. What brilliant news.

Anecdote klaxon 🚨 I was with someone in ED in Nottingham's main hospital on Friday night and was taken aback by how calm it was. Busy, but calm.

H/T @stevensenior.bsky.social
matthewholehouse.bsky.social Matthew Holehouse @matthewholehouse.bsky.social · May 18
Gen Z, a much maligned and panicked-about generation, are behind a remarkable collapse in weekend violence. Great reporting from @fransham.bsky.social

www.economist.com/britain/2025...
May 19, 2025 at 9:18 AM
Reposted by Nathan Davies
fphuk.bsky.social
Paper submissions for the Journal of Public Health’s supplement on ethics and law close this Thursday 15 May.

Areas of interest:

• Moral mandate of public health
• Building capacity and resilience
• Ethical dimensions of climate change, conflict and the polycrisis

academic.oup.com/jpubhealth/p...
Call for papers: Ethics, values and law for public health in a world in turmoil
There are plans for a special supplement of the Journal of Public Health on ethics, values, and laws for building healthy communities in a world in turmoil. Ar
academic.oup.com
May 13, 2025 at 9:18 AM
nmkfdavies.bsky.social
Going on LinkedIn used to be like eating at a dessert parlour - nice before the sugary sweetness inevitably overwhelms.

Now it's like ChatGPT has poured a bathtub of full-fat Lucozade over your sundae.
May 6, 2025 at 12:46 PM
Reposted by Nathan Davies
syeducation.bsky.social
Recently did the annual walk through of our totally normal publishing system for my undergraduate research methods students. Never fails to boggle their minds.
a slide showing the ridiculous process of publishing a journal article, highlighting how universities both pay for the work to be done and then pay to access the work.
May 5, 2025 at 2:12 PM
Reposted by Nathan Davies
donnawakefield.bsky.social
Currently working on a #SystematicReview on #Inequalities- papers often use IMD as a surrogate marker of SEP as its readily available

Interesting paper here 📖 on what *individual-level* household income adds & impact on health. Highlights inequalities within areas
academic.oup.com/jpubhealth/a...
Does household income predict health and educational outcomes in childhood better than neighbourhood deprivation?
AbstractBackground. Public health research and prevention policies often use the small area Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) at neighbourhood level to p
academic.oup.com
May 2, 2025 at 10:50 AM
Reposted by Nathan Davies
lucyfoulkes.bsky.social
Adolescent researchers: Does anyone have experience of running a study with <18 year olds and collecting data online, directly from them, rather than via schools?

We want to run an experiment with 11-17yo, and are wondering about the logistics of getting parental consent online for 11-15yo...
April 29, 2025 at 9:00 AM
Reposted by Nathan Davies
jburnmurdoch.ft.com
The key chart right now:

Usually US economic pain is cushioned by falling bond yields and a strengthening dollar, which mean lower interest rates and more spending power for consumers.

This time we’re seeing the opposite, meaning the pain will be amplified.
April 22, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Reposted by Nathan Davies
ias.org.uk
Why are deaths from alcohol still increasing in England when heavy drinking since the pandemic has come down?

@victimofmaths.bsky.social explains.

www.ias.org.uk/2024/12/16/n...
New alcohol mortality data presents a bleak picture for England - Institute of Alcohol Studies
Alcohol deaths in England continue to rise, with the North East death rate overtaking Scotland's for the first time ever. Colin Angus looks at why this might be and which age groups are particularly a...
www.ias.org.uk
April 17, 2025 at 9:27 AM