Oren Samet
@osamet.bsky.social
Political scientist studying how oppositions challenge dictators at home and abroad. Opposition parties, authoritarianism, elections, foreign policy, Southeast Asia. Postdoc @ Stanford CDDRL orensamet.com
Pinned
Oren Samet
@osamet.bsky.social
· May 27
America Still Has a ‘Values-Based’ Foreign Policy
It’s increasingly difficult to understand Trump’s foreign policy without an ideological lens.
foreignpolicy.com
Excited to share my new piece just out in @foreignpolicy.com:
We keep hearing Trump’s foreign policy abandoned “values” for raw interests. But that’s not quite right.
It still talks about “freedom” and “shared values” - just repurposed to serve a new agenda.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/27/u...
🧵 1/
We keep hearing Trump’s foreign policy abandoned “values” for raw interests. But that’s not quite right.
It still talks about “freedom” and “shared values” - just repurposed to serve a new agenda.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/27/u...
🧵 1/
Five years on from the coup that toppled Myanmar’s civilian government, the National Unity Government (NUG) is struggling to maintain relevance.
It reflects a challenge that many other oppositions have faced, and one that's at the core of my current research
🧵 1/
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/01/w...
It reflects a challenge that many other oppositions have faced, and one that's at the core of my current research
🧵 1/
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/01/w...
Years After Coup, Myanmar’s Government in Exile Teeters on Irrelevance
www.nytimes.com
February 1, 2026 at 4:04 PM
Five years on from the coup that toppled Myanmar’s civilian government, the National Unity Government (NUG) is struggling to maintain relevance.
It reflects a challenge that many other oppositions have faced, and one that's at the core of my current research
🧵 1/
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/01/w...
It reflects a challenge that many other oppositions have faced, and one that's at the core of my current research
🧵 1/
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/01/w...
The State Dept continuing to advance a new “values-based” foreign policy. Deploying targeted sanctions against individuals for highly ideological reasons.
These are the type of sanctions that used to be levied against rights abusers. Now for European internet regulators
These are the type of sanctions that used to be levied against rights abusers. Now for European internet regulators
December 24, 2025 at 12:38 AM
The State Dept continuing to advance a new “values-based” foreign policy. Deploying targeted sanctions against individuals for highly ideological reasons.
These are the type of sanctions that used to be levied against rights abusers. Now for European internet regulators
These are the type of sanctions that used to be levied against rights abusers. Now for European internet regulators
New development in the Trump admin effort to exert federal control over voter rolls. As I wrote a few months ago (see 🧵 below), since the admin’s legal case is weak, the biggest concern here is voluntary compliance by GOP-controlled states. And that’s exactly what we see happening now
December 19, 2025 at 11:07 PM
New development in the Trump admin effort to exert federal control over voter rolls. As I wrote a few months ago (see 🧵 below), since the admin’s legal case is weak, the biggest concern here is voluntary compliance by GOP-controlled states. And that’s exactly what we see happening now
Reposted by Oren Samet
Opposition parties often look abroad for leverage.
CDDRL's Einstein-Moos Postdoctoral Fellow Oren Samet explained how “opposition diplomacy” draws attention to repression and shapes international pressure, while exposing challengers to real risks.
CDDRL's Einstein-Moos Postdoctoral Fellow Oren Samet explained how “opposition diplomacy” draws attention to repression and shapes international pressure, while exposing challengers to real risks.
Challenging Autocrats Abroad: Opposition Parties on the International
cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu
December 19, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Opposition parties often look abroad for leverage.
CDDRL's Einstein-Moos Postdoctoral Fellow Oren Samet explained how “opposition diplomacy” draws attention to repression and shapes international pressure, while exposing challengers to real risks.
CDDRL's Einstein-Moos Postdoctoral Fellow Oren Samet explained how “opposition diplomacy” draws attention to repression and shapes international pressure, while exposing challengers to real risks.
Reposted by Oren Samet
RA Position!
@ozlemtuncel.bsky.social and @osamet.bsky.social are looking for support for a project on opposition coalitions in autocracies. If you are
- interested in opposition politics and electoral dynamics, and
- familiar with data collection
apply by Dec 31: gsu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
@ozlemtuncel.bsky.social and @osamet.bsky.social are looking for support for a project on opposition coalitions in autocracies. If you are
- interested in opposition politics and electoral dynamics, and
- familiar with data collection
apply by Dec 31: gsu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
December 19, 2025 at 9:15 AM
RA Position!
@ozlemtuncel.bsky.social and @osamet.bsky.social are looking for support for a project on opposition coalitions in autocracies. If you are
- interested in opposition politics and electoral dynamics, and
- familiar with data collection
apply by Dec 31: gsu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
@ozlemtuncel.bsky.social and @osamet.bsky.social are looking for support for a project on opposition coalitions in autocracies. If you are
- interested in opposition politics and electoral dynamics, and
- familiar with data collection
apply by Dec 31: gsu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
“A breakdown in state capacity... is very bad. And paradoxically… that may be the thing that is saving democracy”
Pleased to be quoted in this thought-provoking new piece from @zackbeauchamp.bsky.social on the limits of Trump's capacity to erode US democracy
www.vox.com/politics/472...
Pleased to be quoted in this thought-provoking new piece from @zackbeauchamp.bsky.social on the limits of Trump's capacity to erode US democracy
www.vox.com/politics/472...
Trump’s war on democracy is failing
And it’s his own fault.
www.vox.com
December 17, 2025 at 6:43 PM
“A breakdown in state capacity... is very bad. And paradoxically… that may be the thing that is saving democracy”
Pleased to be quoted in this thought-provoking new piece from @zackbeauchamp.bsky.social on the limits of Trump's capacity to erode US democracy
www.vox.com/politics/472...
Pleased to be quoted in this thought-provoking new piece from @zackbeauchamp.bsky.social on the limits of Trump's capacity to erode US democracy
www.vox.com/politics/472...
Reposted by Oren Samet
‼️⚠️Research Assistant Position!
@osamet.bsky.social and I are looking for support for a project on opposition coalitions in autocracies. If you are
✅interested in opposition politics and electoral dynamics
✅familiar with data collection
Then, please apply here: gsu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
@osamet.bsky.social and I are looking for support for a project on opposition coalitions in autocracies. If you are
✅interested in opposition politics and electoral dynamics
✅familiar with data collection
Then, please apply here: gsu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
December 8, 2025 at 6:16 PM
‼️⚠️Research Assistant Position!
@osamet.bsky.social and I are looking for support for a project on opposition coalitions in autocracies. If you are
✅interested in opposition politics and electoral dynamics
✅familiar with data collection
Then, please apply here: gsu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
@osamet.bsky.social and I are looking for support for a project on opposition coalitions in autocracies. If you are
✅interested in opposition politics and electoral dynamics
✅familiar with data collection
Then, please apply here: gsu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
US ends temporary status for Myanmar nationals, cites upcoming elections as 'progress'
Cruel, idiotic, with absolutely no upside. Trump admin living in fantasy land on Myanmar
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
Cruel, idiotic, with absolutely no upside. Trump admin living in fantasy land on Myanmar
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
www.reuters.com
November 25, 2025 at 2:01 AM
US ends temporary status for Myanmar nationals, cites upcoming elections as 'progress'
Cruel, idiotic, with absolutely no upside. Trump admin living in fantasy land on Myanmar
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
Cruel, idiotic, with absolutely no upside. Trump admin living in fantasy land on Myanmar
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
America still has a values-based foreign policy
foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/27/u...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/27/u...
November 21, 2025 at 3:55 PM
America still has a values-based foreign policy
foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/27/u...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/27/u...
US intervening directly in a foreign country's politics in a way that conflicts with Trump's supposed "transactionalism." We continue to have a "values-based" foreign policy, just with a different inflection www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Trump threatens to cut US aid to Argentina if Milei loses election
US president says ‘we will not be generous’ if leader fails to win key midterms after promising $20bn to prop up struggling economy
www.theguardian.com
October 14, 2025 at 10:48 PM
US intervening directly in a foreign country's politics in a way that conflicts with Trump's supposed "transactionalism." We continue to have a "values-based" foreign policy, just with a different inflection www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
There is still *one day* left to post a public comment in response to this proposed regulation. You can do so here: www.federalregister.gov/documents/20... either under your name (as I did) or anonymously.
There are currently more than 17,000 comments - it's a lot, but still room for more!
There are currently more than 17,000 comments - it's a lot, but still room for more!
September 28, 2025 at 3:57 PM
There is still *one day* left to post a public comment in response to this proposed regulation. You can do so here: www.federalregister.gov/documents/20... either under your name (as I did) or anonymously.
There are currently more than 17,000 comments - it's a lot, but still room for more!
There are currently more than 17,000 comments - it's a lot, but still room for more!
"...particularly for an administration that has eschewed large foreign interventions"
I really wish reporters would stop credulously repeating this claim - it doesn't hold up when you actually look at this admin's foreign policy (Brazil, Europe, Iran, now Argentina, you name it!)
I really wish reporters would stop credulously repeating this claim - it doesn't hold up when you actually look at this admin's foreign policy (Brazil, Europe, Iran, now Argentina, you name it!)
Trump-pledged support for Argentina stirs anger among Republicans
Powerful agriculture groups and their Republican allies in Congress are sounding alarms about the deal.
www.politico.com
September 26, 2025 at 2:36 AM
"...particularly for an administration that has eschewed large foreign interventions"
I really wish reporters would stop credulously repeating this claim - it doesn't hold up when you actually look at this admin's foreign policy (Brazil, Europe, Iran, now Argentina, you name it!)
I really wish reporters would stop credulously repeating this claim - it doesn't hold up when you actually look at this admin's foreign policy (Brazil, Europe, Iran, now Argentina, you name it!)
Alternative way of looking at this: if you are interested in promoting elite splits in the regime and its support network, this very much could be the way…
Either the authoritarianism requires total opposition now, or this, but you can't have both. You need to choose.
I totally agree that "Stop Acting Like This Is Normal" is the right approach. But then what is this? 🤷♂️
www.abundancedc.org/speakers
www.abundancedc.org/speakers
September 9, 2025 at 6:15 PM
Alternative way of looking at this: if you are interested in promoting elite splits in the regime and its support network, this very much could be the way…
One of the greatest safeguards for American democracy (in contrast with other backsliding cases) is the decentralized nature of its election infrastructure, in the hands of states/localities. The Trump administration is trying to whittle that away. Alarming new report with some of the details:
Trump Administration Quietly Seeks to Build National Voter Roll
www.nytimes.com
September 9, 2025 at 5:38 PM
One of the greatest safeguards for American democracy (in contrast with other backsliding cases) is the decentralized nature of its election infrastructure, in the hands of states/localities. The Trump administration is trying to whittle that away. Alarming new report with some of the details:
Reposted by Oren Samet
This is a major escalation in the Hun dynasty's efforts to crush any opposition to its rule in #Cambodia. This new law allows the gov to arbitrarily revoke citizenship from anyone it deems to be "conspiring" against the state
A brief 🧵 on potential implications
A brief 🧵 on potential implications
Acting Head of State Hun Sen has promulgated the amendments to the Nationality Law. The amendments allow revocation of Cambodian citizenship from dual nationals and citizens deemed likely to obtain another nationality or foreign protection.
September 6, 2025 at 4:42 PM
This is a major escalation in the Hun dynasty's efforts to crush any opposition to its rule in #Cambodia. This new law allows the gov to arbitrarily revoke citizenship from anyone it deems to be "conspiring" against the state
A brief 🧵 on potential implications
A brief 🧵 on potential implications
I don’t really think this is a fair characterization. The number of times I’ve seen the US compared *by Americans* to 1930s Germany, or Peronist Argentina, or Orban’s Hungary…
There’s also the perils of over-indexing on others’ experiences. Providing historical context from the US is helpful!
There’s also the perils of over-indexing on others’ experiences. Providing historical context from the US is helpful!
The biggest analytical weakness of Americans in trying to understand the current moment is that their powers of analogy begin and end with US history. The idea that something qualitatively different might be arising simply doesn’t occur to them.
September 6, 2025 at 5:10 PM
I don’t really think this is a fair characterization. The number of times I’ve seen the US compared *by Americans* to 1930s Germany, or Peronist Argentina, or Orban’s Hungary…
There’s also the perils of over-indexing on others’ experiences. Providing historical context from the US is helpful!
There’s also the perils of over-indexing on others’ experiences. Providing historical context from the US is helpful!
This is a major escalation in the Hun dynasty's efforts to crush any opposition to its rule in #Cambodia. This new law allows the gov to arbitrarily revoke citizenship from anyone it deems to be "conspiring" against the state
A brief 🧵 on potential implications
A brief 🧵 on potential implications
Acting Head of State Hun Sen has promulgated the amendments to the Nationality Law. The amendments allow revocation of Cambodian citizenship from dual nationals and citizens deemed likely to obtain another nationality or foreign protection.
September 6, 2025 at 4:42 PM
This is a major escalation in the Hun dynasty's efforts to crush any opposition to its rule in #Cambodia. This new law allows the gov to arbitrarily revoke citizenship from anyone it deems to be "conspiring" against the state
A brief 🧵 on potential implications
A brief 🧵 on potential implications
The US cuts are obviously the most dramatic and make up a huge share of the total drop in ODA. But there are pretty steep declines elsewhere, and they are all compounding one another
September 3, 2025 at 9:35 PM
The US cuts are obviously the most dramatic and make up a huge share of the total drop in ODA. But there are pretty steep declines elsewhere, and they are all compounding one another
This is likely to have significant immediate and longer term implications for democracy and human rights struggles. These numbers are pretty dramatic (although giving everything not hugely surprising)
Human rights-focused ODA will drop in proportion, by 31% through 2026; full scale of funding cuts to be felt in the next 6-12 months
September 3, 2025 at 9:14 PM
This is likely to have significant immediate and longer term implications for democracy and human rights struggles. These numbers are pretty dramatic (although giving everything not hugely surprising)
The echoes of Cambodia, Venezuela, and elsewhere are very strong here. Turkey’s “nearly stunning election” in 2023 lit the spark for extreme backlash and an effort to extinguish opposition
I discuss more here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
I discuss more here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
September 2, 2025 at 3:52 PM
The echoes of Cambodia, Venezuela, and elsewhere are very strong here. Turkey’s “nearly stunning election” in 2023 lit the spark for extreme backlash and an effort to extinguish opposition
I discuss more here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
I discuss more here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Oren Samet
Once again, my IR research agendas are converging! Opposition politicians conducting international outreach/advocacy + a repurposing of the “values-based” foreign policy/freedom agenda by right-wing actors
I can't believe the U.S. Congress is flying Nigel Farage over to tell them about freedom of expression in a hearing this week. judiciary.house.gov/committee-ac...
Hey people in the UK, are there any particularly choice tidbits you'd like to share about this guy??
Hey people in the UK, are there any particularly choice tidbits you'd like to share about this guy??
Europe’s Threat to American Speech and Innovation
judiciary.house.gov
September 1, 2025 at 11:49 PM
Once again, my IR research agendas are converging! Opposition politicians conducting international outreach/advocacy + a repurposing of the “values-based” foreign policy/freedom agenda by right-wing actors
Once again, my IR research agendas are converging! Opposition politicians conducting international outreach/advocacy + a repurposing of the “values-based” foreign policy/freedom agenda by right-wing actors
I can't believe the U.S. Congress is flying Nigel Farage over to tell them about freedom of expression in a hearing this week. judiciary.house.gov/committee-ac...
Hey people in the UK, are there any particularly choice tidbits you'd like to share about this guy??
Hey people in the UK, are there any particularly choice tidbits you'd like to share about this guy??
Europe’s Threat to American Speech and Innovation
judiciary.house.gov
September 1, 2025 at 11:49 PM
Once again, my IR research agendas are converging! Opposition politicians conducting international outreach/advocacy + a repurposing of the “values-based” foreign policy/freedom agenda by right-wing actors
Reposted by Oren Samet
Useful to break down which threats are just bluster and which have teeth. In the case of proposed election-related exec order (discussed here), there's no statutory power, but there is the power of persuasion
So the threat really comes from states voluntarily moving to come into line with the EO
So the threat really comes from states voluntarily moving to come into line with the EO
how would this work, exactly? let's say jon ossof wins reelection next year. who forces the state of georgia to throw out the ballots? bsky.app/profile/jmb0...
September 1, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Useful to break down which threats are just bluster and which have teeth. In the case of proposed election-related exec order (discussed here), there's no statutory power, but there is the power of persuasion
So the threat really comes from states voluntarily moving to come into line with the EO
So the threat really comes from states voluntarily moving to come into line with the EO
I have mixed feelings about this bc I have great respect for Cambodian rights defenders. But I really do not think Cambodia holds many positive lessons for the struggle for/defense of democracy
Tbh, it’s a cautionary tale of how liberal rhetoric and commitments can manifestly fail to produce change
Tbh, it’s a cautionary tale of how liberal rhetoric and commitments can manifestly fail to produce change
NEW Democracy Atlas: Leadership isn’t confined to the political sphere — it can stem from anyone working to make a change. In our latest, we learn endurance from Cambodia’s unexpected pro-democracy leaders: https://www.ifyoucankeepit.org/p/rule-4-leadership-lives-in-everyone
September 1, 2025 at 9:09 PM
I have mixed feelings about this bc I have great respect for Cambodian rights defenders. But I really do not think Cambodia holds many positive lessons for the struggle for/defense of democracy
Tbh, it’s a cautionary tale of how liberal rhetoric and commitments can manifestly fail to produce change
Tbh, it’s a cautionary tale of how liberal rhetoric and commitments can manifestly fail to produce change
Useful to break down which threats are just bluster and which have teeth. In the case of proposed election-related exec order (discussed here), there's no statutory power, but there is the power of persuasion
So the threat really comes from states voluntarily moving to come into line with the EO
So the threat really comes from states voluntarily moving to come into line with the EO
how would this work, exactly? let's say jon ossof wins reelection next year. who forces the state of georgia to throw out the ballots? bsky.app/profile/jmb0...
September 1, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Useful to break down which threats are just bluster and which have teeth. In the case of proposed election-related exec order (discussed here), there's no statutory power, but there is the power of persuasion
So the threat really comes from states voluntarily moving to come into line with the EO
So the threat really comes from states voluntarily moving to come into line with the EO