Philip A. Luck
@philuck.bsky.social
Director of Economics Program and Scholl Chair of International Business at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Writing and thinking about all things economics, technology, and strategic policy. All opinions are my own.
Reposted by Philip A. Luck
President Trump has staked much of his economic and foreign policy agendas on his use of tariffs. In the latest from the State of Play podcast, @navingirishankar.bsky.social and @philuck.bsky.social join @willtodman.bsky.social to discuss what they aim to achieve.
Listen here:
Listen here:
Are President Trump's tariffs working? | State of Play | CSIS Podcasts
Navin Girishankar and Phil Luck join Will to discuss President Trump’s foreign policy and economic agendas.
tinyurl.com
November 12, 2025 at 8:00 PM
President Trump has staked much of his economic and foreign policy agendas on his use of tariffs. In the latest from the State of Play podcast, @navingirishankar.bsky.social and @philuck.bsky.social join @willtodman.bsky.social to discuss what they aim to achieve.
Listen here:
Listen here:
Reposted by Philip A. Luck
rule of law
Rule of law
Rule of Law
Rule Of Law!
RULE OF LAW!!!
Rule of law
Rule of Law
Rule Of Law!
RULE OF LAW!!!
JUST IN: Judge Cobb has blocked the Trump administration’s effort to extend rapid-fire deportation procedures to immigrants who have been in the U.S. more than two years — warning that it is a flagrant deprivation of due process that could ensnare anyone. ecf.dcd.uscourts.gov/cgi-bin/show...
August 30, 2025 at 12:55 AM
rule of law
Rule of law
Rule of Law
Rule Of Law!
RULE OF LAW!!!
Rule of law
Rule of Law
Rule Of Law!
RULE OF LAW!!!
Reposted by Philip A. Luck
On the latest episode of the Trade Guys, CSIS's @philuck.bsky.social, Scott Miller, and William Alan Reinsch discuss the outcomes from President Trump's trip to Asia, including negotiations with China, the ROK, and ASEAN.
Listen here: www.csis.org/podcasts/tra...
Listen here: www.csis.org/podcasts/tra...
November 5, 2025 at 3:00 PM
On the latest episode of the Trade Guys, CSIS's @philuck.bsky.social, Scott Miller, and William Alan Reinsch discuss the outcomes from President Trump's trip to Asia, including negotiations with China, the ROK, and ASEAN.
Listen here: www.csis.org/podcasts/tra...
Listen here: www.csis.org/podcasts/tra...
Reposted by Philip A. Luck
Ukraine's funding gap, including cash and arms, could stand at around US$389bn in 2026-29
• That is almost double the roughly US$206bn that Europe has supplied since early 2022
• EU's ability to help Kyiv finance war will test of Europe's willingness and ability to count on global scene
• That is almost double the roughly US$206bn that Europe has supplied since early 2022
• EU's ability to help Kyiv finance war will test of Europe's willingness and ability to count on global scene
November 5, 2025 at 8:01 AM
Ukraine's funding gap, including cash and arms, could stand at around US$389bn in 2026-29
• That is almost double the roughly US$206bn that Europe has supplied since early 2022
• EU's ability to help Kyiv finance war will test of Europe's willingness and ability to count on global scene
• That is almost double the roughly US$206bn that Europe has supplied since early 2022
• EU's ability to help Kyiv finance war will test of Europe's willingness and ability to count on global scene
Reposted by Philip A. Luck
Fascinating - a sliver of why it's insufficient to argue that China simply "cheats" WTO subsidies disciplines. Rather, Chinese lenders operate in a far more complex way. No amount of navigating control of SOEs will account for this integrated, layered support.
www.aiddata.org/publications...
www.aiddata.org/publications...
November 5, 2025 at 8:09 AM
Fascinating - a sliver of why it's insufficient to argue that China simply "cheats" WTO subsidies disciplines. Rather, Chinese lenders operate in a far more complex way. No amount of navigating control of SOEs will account for this integrated, layered support.
www.aiddata.org/publications...
www.aiddata.org/publications...
Live now! Tune in!
🔵 LIVE NOW | The Capital Cable #123
Join Mark Lippert, @victordcha.bsky.social, Matthew Goodman (@cfr.org), @philuck.bsky.social, and Dennis Wilder as they discuss what's next after the U.S.–China trade war escalates with 100% tariffs and new export controls.
🔗 www.csis.org/events/us-ch...
Join Mark Lippert, @victordcha.bsky.social, Matthew Goodman (@cfr.org), @philuck.bsky.social, and Dennis Wilder as they discuss what's next after the U.S.–China trade war escalates with 100% tariffs and new export controls.
🔗 www.csis.org/events/us-ch...
October 23, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Live now! Tune in!
Reposted by Philip A. Luck
🟦 The Capital Cable #123 | 10/23 9AM ET
Join Mark Lippert, @victordcha.bsky.social, Matthew Goodman (@cfr.org), @philuck.bsky.social, and Dennis Wilder as they discuss what's next after the U.S.–China trade war escalates with 100% tariffs and new export controls.
🔗 www.csis.org/events/us-ch...
Join Mark Lippert, @victordcha.bsky.social, Matthew Goodman (@cfr.org), @philuck.bsky.social, and Dennis Wilder as they discuss what's next after the U.S.–China trade war escalates with 100% tariffs and new export controls.
🔗 www.csis.org/events/us-ch...
October 18, 2025 at 3:30 PM
🟦 The Capital Cable #123 | 10/23 9AM ET
Join Mark Lippert, @victordcha.bsky.social, Matthew Goodman (@cfr.org), @philuck.bsky.social, and Dennis Wilder as they discuss what's next after the U.S.–China trade war escalates with 100% tariffs and new export controls.
🔗 www.csis.org/events/us-ch...
Join Mark Lippert, @victordcha.bsky.social, Matthew Goodman (@cfr.org), @philuck.bsky.social, and Dennis Wilder as they discuss what's next after the U.S.–China trade war escalates with 100% tariffs and new export controls.
🔗 www.csis.org/events/us-ch...
Today on The Trade Guys: Is globalization dead? Spoiler alert— youtu.be/da3tsiz8hg8?...
a group of people are laying on the ground and one of them is saying `` i 'm getting better! ''
ALT: a group of people are laying on the ground and one of them is saying `` i 'm getting better! ''
media.tenor.com
October 13, 2025 at 11:28 PM
Today on The Trade Guys: Is globalization dead? Spoiler alert— youtu.be/da3tsiz8hg8?...
Reposted by Philip A. Luck
Glad to see the US Chamber of Commerce speak up on the $100,000 H-1B tax.
I’ve been hoping the business community would speak up more forcefully on immigration issues. It’s a constituency that will be heard by the administration. This is a good start, but only a start.
I’ve been hoping the business community would speak up more forcefully on immigration issues. It’s a constituency that will be heard by the administration. This is a good start, but only a start.
September 29, 2025 at 8:38 PM
Glad to see the US Chamber of Commerce speak up on the $100,000 H-1B tax.
I’ve been hoping the business community would speak up more forcefully on immigration issues. It’s a constituency that will be heard by the administration. This is a good start, but only a start.
I’ve been hoping the business community would speak up more forcefully on immigration issues. It’s a constituency that will be heard by the administration. This is a good start, but only a start.
The longer the US-China trade war goes on, the more US farmers will suffer and the more it will cost every American to bail them out. We are in the middle of the normal harvest/export season for soybeans. The clock is ticking. @csis.org www.youtube.com/watch?v=porc...
Will farmers survive the U.S.-China trade war?
YouTube video by Center for Strategic & International Studies
www.youtube.com
October 13, 2025 at 2:28 AM
The longer the US-China trade war goes on, the more US farmers will suffer and the more it will cost every American to bail them out. We are in the middle of the normal harvest/export season for soybeans. The clock is ticking. @csis.org www.youtube.com/watch?v=porc...
U.S. farmers are bearing the brunt of China's retaliatory trade policies.
Our research shows how the trade war between the U.S. and China is impacting U.S. farmers caught in the crossfire. youtube.com/watch?v=porc... @csis.org
Our research shows how the trade war between the U.S. and China is impacting U.S. farmers caught in the crossfire. youtube.com/watch?v=porc... @csis.org
Will farmers survive the U.S.-China trade war?
YouTube video by Center for Strategic & International Studies
youtube.com
October 9, 2025 at 5:44 PM
U.S. farmers are bearing the brunt of China's retaliatory trade policies.
Our research shows how the trade war between the U.S. and China is impacting U.S. farmers caught in the crossfire. youtube.com/watch?v=porc... @csis.org
Our research shows how the trade war between the U.S. and China is impacting U.S. farmers caught in the crossfire. youtube.com/watch?v=porc... @csis.org
We’re now in the heart of harvest season — but for many U.S. farmers, the outlook is grim. China hasn’t purchased U.S. soybeans since May and total U.S. agriculteral export to China are down 73% since January. Unless sales rebound soon, American producers face devastating revenue losses. @csis.org
October 8, 2025 at 1:09 PM
We’re now in the heart of harvest season — but for many U.S. farmers, the outlook is grim. China hasn’t purchased U.S. soybeans since May and total U.S. agriculteral export to China are down 73% since January. Unless sales rebound soon, American producers face devastating revenue losses. @csis.org
Reposted by Philip A. Luck
👇
And... what would you say... *constitutes* this tradition he's bucking? What exactly is it *constituted* of?
October 8, 2025 at 1:35 AM
👇
Reposted by Philip A. Luck
In a new episode of The Trade Guys, CSIS's @philuck.bsky.social, Scott Miller, and William Alan Reinsch examine why tariffs haven't had as significant impact on the economy as expected.
Listen here: www.csis.org/podcasts/tra...
Listen here: www.csis.org/podcasts/tra...
September 30, 2025 at 3:00 PM
In a new episode of The Trade Guys, CSIS's @philuck.bsky.social, Scott Miller, and William Alan Reinsch examine why tariffs haven't had as significant impact on the economy as expected.
Listen here: www.csis.org/podcasts/tra...
Listen here: www.csis.org/podcasts/tra...
Reposted by Philip A. Luck
"Julia" shares, "I've been working in the strawberries for 12 years in Santa Maria, CA. It is very hard work. I get very tired because I have to walk bent over all day long and it hurts my back. But it is how I earn money to feed my family." #WeFeedYou
September 28, 2025 at 2:00 PM
"Julia" shares, "I've been working in the strawberries for 12 years in Santa Maria, CA. It is very hard work. I get very tired because I have to walk bent over all day long and it hurts my back. But it is how I earn money to feed my family." #WeFeedYou
Reposted by Philip A. Luck
The 100K fee for H-1B visas (yearly!) is reported as a hit on tech -- but it is a hit on universities. It will make it impossible for us to hire foreign visitors, or foreign scholars into tenure track positions--I think almost 40% of H-1Bs go to universities and university hospitals.
September 20, 2025 at 4:25 PM
The 100K fee for H-1B visas (yearly!) is reported as a hit on tech -- but it is a hit on universities. It will make it impossible for us to hire foreign visitors, or foreign scholars into tenure track positions--I think almost 40% of H-1Bs go to universities and university hospitals.
Rule OF law boosts prosperity by applying equally to all, creating a level playing field where resources flow to their best use. Rule BY law lets the powerful twist the state for enrichment, leaving everyone else to pay the price.
Critical part of the President's new $100,000 charge for H1-B visas: The Administration can also offer a $100,000 discount to any person, company, or industry that it wants. Replacing rules with arbitrary discretion.
Want visas? You know who to call and who to flatter.
Want visas? You know who to call and who to flatter.
September 20, 2025 at 5:29 PM
Rule OF law boosts prosperity by applying equally to all, creating a level playing field where resources flow to their best use. Rule BY law lets the powerful twist the state for enrichment, leaving everyone else to pay the price.
Reposted by Philip A. Luck
Watching this video 10 times has significantly improved my mood.
August 17, 2025 at 9:05 PM
Watching this video 10 times has significantly improved my mood.
Commentary discussing same issue: www.csis.org/analysis/how...
August 8, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Commentary discussing same issue: www.csis.org/analysis/how...
The new proposed tariff on semiconductors could raise the cost of AI servers by as much as 75 percent, disrupting data center economics and pricing smaller firms out of frontier AI development. www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0qT...
How Tariffs Could Derail America’s AI Buildout
YouTube video by Center for Strategic & International Studies
www.youtube.com
August 8, 2025 at 4:35 PM
The new proposed tariff on semiconductors could raise the cost of AI servers by as much as 75 percent, disrupting data center economics and pricing smaller firms out of frontier AI development. www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0qT...
Watch me awkwardly explain how the U.S. is racing to build the infrastructure for AI dominance, spending over $70 billion each quarter, but new tariffs on semiconductors could make this much more expensive. www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0qT... @csis.org
How Tariffs Could Derail America’s AI Buildout
YouTube video by Center for Strategic & International Studies
www.youtube.com
August 6, 2025 at 10:07 PM
Watch me awkwardly explain how the U.S. is racing to build the infrastructure for AI dominance, spending over $70 billion each quarter, but new tariffs on semiconductors could make this much more expensive. www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0qT... @csis.org
Today's "strategic" trade tools become tomorrow's immovable fiscal fixtures. I saw this firsthand in last admin. Despite knowing they were poorly designed, we were unable to eliminate *ANY* 301 tariffs Trump 1.0. Once tariffs become industry protection, they develop their own political constituency.
Trump’s Tariffs Are Making Money. That May Make Them Hard to Quit.
The tariffs are a substantial new source of revenue for the federal government. The budget may start to depend on it.
tinyurl.com
August 3, 2025 at 3:21 PM
Today's "strategic" trade tools become tomorrow's immovable fiscal fixtures. I saw this firsthand in last admin. Despite knowing they were poorly designed, we were unable to eliminate *ANY* 301 tariffs Trump 1.0. Once tariffs become industry protection, they develop their own political constituency.
Trying something new. Is US trade policy driving partners to the PRC? youtu.be/Jhs4w_OJn8c?...
Is U.S. Trade Policy Driving Partners Closer to China?
YouTube video by Center for Strategic & International Studies
youtu.be
August 3, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Trying something new. Is US trade policy driving partners to the PRC? youtu.be/Jhs4w_OJn8c?...
Trump’s trade strategy is taking shape— EU deal adds to a flurry of new frameworks. New analysis w/ Ina Simonovska. Uniform tariffs could raise U.S. GDP by 2.2%. Retaliation could cut it by 5.3%. The admin must design policy carefully to avoid self-harm: www.csis.org/analysis/tru...
Trump’s Trade Strategy Takes Shape with Latest EU Trade Deal
A new commentary from the CSIS Economics Program and the Scholl Chair in International Business offers an economic analysis of the impact of tariffs and presents recommendations for policymakers to mi...
www.csis.org
July 28, 2025 at 9:59 PM
Trump’s trade strategy is taking shape— EU deal adds to a flurry of new frameworks. New analysis w/ Ina Simonovska. Uniform tariffs could raise U.S. GDP by 2.2%. Retaliation could cut it by 5.3%. The admin must design policy carefully to avoid self-harm: www.csis.org/analysis/tru...