Sam Lair
@slair.bsky.social
Research Associate at CNS | Fellow at FPRI | MIIS NPTS '24 | RTs/views my own etc. Also @sam_lair on Twitter
Pinned
Sam Lair
@slair.bsky.social
· Jun 25
I've worked up an assessment of U.S. and Israeli missile defense interceptor expenditures since June 13
Based on video evidence AT LEAST, 39 THAAD, 34 Arrow-3, & ~9 Arrow-2s have been used. For more on the methodology, ABM sites in Israel, and implications, check out the article
Based on video evidence AT LEAST, 39 THAAD, 34 Arrow-3, & ~9 Arrow-2s have been used. For more on the methodology, ABM sites in Israel, and implications, check out the article
Reposted by Sam Lair
Have had a post in Substack drafts now for months that I need to finish on why SBIs invite a world of fast-ascending (think Sprint ABM), nuclear-tipped DA-ASAT weapons.
SBIs will require defensive capabilities to help protect them from adversary ASATS -- and that is a cost factor/tech challenge that is not often included in ongoing discussions about investment requirements. breakingdefense.com/2025/11/gold...
Golden Dome SBIs will need to be defended from adversary attack: Experts - Breaking Defense
The satellites will need to be defended "not only from adversary kinetic or local orbital issues, but also from cyber attacks, electronic jamming and laser attacks," said Patrick Binning, a professor ...
breakingdefense.com
November 13, 2025 at 2:04 AM
Have had a post in Substack drafts now for months that I need to finish on why SBIs invite a world of fast-ascending (think Sprint ABM), nuclear-tipped DA-ASAT weapons.
Reposted by Sam Lair
Last year, I wrote an article for @foreignaffairs.com on why the US stands to lose the most from a resumption of nuclear testing.
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Why America Stands to Lose If It Resumes Nuclear Testing
China and Russia would finally be able to catch up.
www.foreignaffairs.com
October 30, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Last year, I wrote an article for @foreignaffairs.com on why the US stands to lose the most from a resumption of nuclear testing.
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Reposted by Sam Lair
With everyone talking about sea otters, Taylor Swift, and the Monterey Aquarium, I want to share some of @slair.bsky.social’s thesis research. Because before David Packard funded the rescue of sea otters at the Aquarium, he helped kill about a thousand of them in a nuclear test.
October 18, 2025 at 12:34 AM
With everyone talking about sea otters, Taylor Swift, and the Monterey Aquarium, I want to share some of @slair.bsky.social’s thesis research. Because before David Packard funded the rescue of sea otters at the Aquarium, he helped kill about a thousand of them in a nuclear test.
How did Iranian & Israeli air and missile defenses perform during the 12-Day War? Read all about it in my new piece
@fpri.bsky.social
TLDR: Poor Iranian AD enabled Israel's highly effective missile defeat strategy, BUT, even then, Israeli defenses were severely strained and almost broke down
@fpri.bsky.social
TLDR: Poor Iranian AD enabled Israel's highly effective missile defeat strategy, BUT, even then, Israeli defenses were severely strained and almost broke down
October 17, 2025 at 7:30 PM
How did Iranian & Israeli air and missile defenses perform during the 12-Day War? Read all about it in my new piece
@fpri.bsky.social
TLDR: Poor Iranian AD enabled Israel's highly effective missile defeat strategy, BUT, even then, Israeli defenses were severely strained and almost broke down
@fpri.bsky.social
TLDR: Poor Iranian AD enabled Israel's highly effective missile defeat strategy, BUT, even then, Israeli defenses were severely strained and almost broke down
@aaronstein1.bsky.social and I wrote for @fpri.bsky.social about everyone's favorite once-and-future GLCM, the Tomahawk, and its potential redeployment to Europe: open.substack.com/pub/behindth...
American Missiles and Russian Dachas: Tomahawk and the Future of Stability and Deterrence in Europe
There are ample reasons for the United States to provide Ukraine with longer-range weapons.
behindthefront.substack.com
October 16, 2025 at 3:36 PM
@aaronstein1.bsky.social and I wrote for @fpri.bsky.social about everyone's favorite once-and-future GLCM, the Tomahawk, and its potential redeployment to Europe: open.substack.com/pub/behindth...
Reposted by Sam Lair
I teamed up w/ @fpri.bsky.social fellow @slair.bsky.social to write about one of our favorite missiles :: American Missiles and Russian Dachas: Tomahawk and the Future of Stability and Deterrence in Europe open.substack.com/pub/behindth...
American Missiles and Russian Dachas: Tomahawk and the Future of Stability and Deterrence in Europe
There are ample reasons for the United States to provide Ukraine with longer-range weapons.
open.substack.com
October 16, 2025 at 1:26 PM
I teamed up w/ @fpri.bsky.social fellow @slair.bsky.social to write about one of our favorite missiles :: American Missiles and Russian Dachas: Tomahawk and the Future of Stability and Deterrence in Europe open.substack.com/pub/behindth...
Reposted by Sam Lair
Very pleased to announce that @fpri.bsky.social will be teaming up with/ @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social & @slair.bsky.social for a 2-year Carnegie Corps funded project. We will be working directly with commercial space on a roadmap to strengthen space security
www.carnegie.org/news/article...
www.carnegie.org/news/article...
$3.2 Million in Grants to Reduce Nuclear Dangers Awarded by Carnegie Corporation of New York | Carnegie Corporation of New York
Selected through a national call for proposals, seven grantees will explore the implications of emerging and disruptive technologies on nuclear risks
www.carnegie.org
October 15, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Very pleased to announce that @fpri.bsky.social will be teaming up with/ @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social & @slair.bsky.social for a 2-year Carnegie Corps funded project. We will be working directly with commercial space on a roadmap to strengthen space security
www.carnegie.org/news/article...
www.carnegie.org/news/article...
Reposted by Sam Lair
1/7
How might AI enable the (non)proliferation of nuclear weapons? In a new #OpenAccess article in Risk Analysis (@socriskanalysis.bsky.social), Dave Allison & I explore this question. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
How might AI enable the (non)proliferation of nuclear weapons? In a new #OpenAccess article in Risk Analysis (@socriskanalysis.bsky.social), Dave Allison & I explore this question. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: The Technological Arms Race for (In)visibility
A robust nonproliferation regime has contained the spread of nuclear weapons to just nine states. Yet, emerging and disruptive technologies are reshaping the landscape of nuclear risks, presenting a ...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
September 26, 2025 at 3:01 PM
1/7
How might AI enable the (non)proliferation of nuclear weapons? In a new #OpenAccess article in Risk Analysis (@socriskanalysis.bsky.social), Dave Allison & I explore this question. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
How might AI enable the (non)proliferation of nuclear weapons? In a new #OpenAccess article in Risk Analysis (@socriskanalysis.bsky.social), Dave Allison & I explore this question. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Reposted by Sam Lair
I'm happy to share that my second book, Wiring an Empire: Information Networks and U.S. Global Power in the Cold War, is under advance contract with MIT Press.
September 24, 2025 at 12:45 PM
I'm happy to share that my second book, Wiring an Empire: Information Networks and U.S. Global Power in the Cold War, is under advance contract with MIT Press.
Reposted by Sam Lair
We have big plans @fpri.bsky.social and cannot wait to get started with our new distringuished fellow @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and fellow @slair.bsky.social
www.fpri.org/news/2025/09...
www.fpri.org/news/2025/09...
FPRI Welcomes Dr. Jeffrey Lewis and Sam Lair as National Security Program Fellows - Foreign Policy Research Institute
Philadelphia, PA
www.fpri.org
September 23, 2025 at 2:13 PM
We have big plans @fpri.bsky.social and cannot wait to get started with our new distringuished fellow @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and fellow @slair.bsky.social
www.fpri.org/news/2025/09...
www.fpri.org/news/2025/09...
Reposted by Sam Lair
Wrote a Substack post about Iran's lackluster plan to rebuild its military after the 12-day war with Israel russiairan.substack.com/p/irans-plan...
Iran’s Plan for a Post-War Military Revamp: Financing Gaps, Similar Mistakes, and Sanctions Risks
Iran’s parliament is moving forward with a Plan to Strengthen the Armed Forces, presenting it as a path to rebuild after the 12-day war.
russiairan.substack.com
September 14, 2025 at 10:12 PM
Wrote a Substack post about Iran's lackluster plan to rebuild its military after the 12-day war with Israel russiairan.substack.com/p/irans-plan...
New blog post up on Israeli & U.S. missile defense performance during True Promise II
I broke up the defenses into midcourse and terminal phases, & looked at how well each performed
Come for the effectiveness rates, stay for weird Arrow-3 launch buildings.
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
I broke up the defenses into midcourse and terminal phases, & looked at how well each performed
Come for the effectiveness rates, stay for weird Arrow-3 launch buildings.
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
A Firstful of Interceptors: ABM Performance During True Promise II
Introduction This is the second in a series of blog posts I’m writing on True Promise II, the October 2024 Iranian missile attack against Israel. This post [...]
www.armscontrolwonk.com
September 10, 2025 at 6:32 PM
New blog post up on Israeli & U.S. missile defense performance during True Promise II
I broke up the defenses into midcourse and terminal phases, & looked at how well each performed
Come for the effectiveness rates, stay for weird Arrow-3 launch buildings.
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
I broke up the defenses into midcourse and terminal phases, & looked at how well each performed
Come for the effectiveness rates, stay for weird Arrow-3 launch buildings.
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
Reposted by Sam Lair
Journalists: Please join us at the @outrider.org Nuclear Reporting Summit on October 9-10!
This free, two-day event will focus on how #nuclearweapons issues intersect with AI, community health, #climatechange, local economies, and the #environment.
🔗 APPLY NOW: outrider.org/conference/2...
This free, two-day event will focus on how #nuclearweapons issues intersect with AI, community health, #climatechange, local economies, and the #environment.
🔗 APPLY NOW: outrider.org/conference/2...
2025 Outrider Nuclear Reporting Summit
This fall, in a former nuclear missile silo, we'll convene journalists at the nexus of health, climate, artificial intelligence, outer space, and national security to discuss how these issues are inte...
outrider.org
July 28, 2025 at 9:49 PM
Journalists: Please join us at the @outrider.org Nuclear Reporting Summit on October 9-10!
This free, two-day event will focus on how #nuclearweapons issues intersect with AI, community health, #climatechange, local economies, and the #environment.
🔗 APPLY NOW: outrider.org/conference/2...
This free, two-day event will focus on how #nuclearweapons issues intersect with AI, community health, #climatechange, local economies, and the #environment.
🔗 APPLY NOW: outrider.org/conference/2...
Reposted by Sam Lair
The Countdown to Prevent Another Iranian Nuclear Crisis Just Began
My thoughts on snapback for @carnegieendowment.org carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
My thoughts on snapback for @carnegieendowment.org carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
The Countdown to Prevent Another Iranian Nuclear Crisis Just Began
Three European countries triggered the snapback mechanism for sanctions on Tehran. Now, Washington needs to step up.
carnegieendowment.org
August 28, 2025 at 4:24 PM
The Countdown to Prevent Another Iranian Nuclear Crisis Just Began
My thoughts on snapback for @carnegieendowment.org carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
My thoughts on snapback for @carnegieendowment.org carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
I wrote about Iran's missile failure rates during True Promise II
Folks get caught up in the 50% failure rate figure from TP I and assume similar numbers are true for TP II and the 12 Day War. But, official statements and video evidence suggest its the failure rate is only 10%!
Link below:
Folks get caught up in the 50% failure rate figure from TP I and assume similar numbers are true for TP II and the 12 Day War. But, official statements and video evidence suggest its the failure rate is only 10%!
Link below:
August 22, 2025 at 11:35 PM
I wrote about Iran's missile failure rates during True Promise II
Folks get caught up in the 50% failure rate figure from TP I and assume similar numbers are true for TP II and the 12 Day War. But, official statements and video evidence suggest its the failure rate is only 10%!
Link below:
Folks get caught up in the 50% failure rate figure from TP I and assume similar numbers are true for TP II and the 12 Day War. But, official statements and video evidence suggest its the failure rate is only 10%!
Link below:
My colleague Seth Hosford and I wrote about Houthi SAMs.
Turns out the Houthis are making jank thermal batteries to maintain their older SA-7b MANPADS, but the process behind it is wild!
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
Turns out the Houthis are making jank thermal batteries to maintain their older SA-7b MANPADS, but the process behind it is wild!
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
Mad Max MANPADS in Yemen
Given the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and Operation Rough Rider, the U.S. air campaign against the Houthis conducted from March to May, 2025, we [...]
www.armscontrolwonk.com
August 21, 2025 at 10:56 PM
My colleague Seth Hosford and I wrote about Houthi SAMs.
Turns out the Houthis are making jank thermal batteries to maintain their older SA-7b MANPADS, but the process behind it is wild!
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
Turns out the Houthis are making jank thermal batteries to maintain their older SA-7b MANPADS, but the process behind it is wild!
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
Y'all should check out my colleague Seth's ACW blog post on the Iskander-M ballistic missile!
Turns out some of its maneuvers may be wholly random to bamboozle defenses
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
Turns out some of its maneuvers may be wholly random to bamboozle defenses
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
Russia Goes Random: Iskander-M’s Ballistic Missile Defense Evasion
Ballistic missile guidance is generally well understood. Ballistic missiles get to where they’re going using a variety of navigational tools, from [...]
www.armscontrolwonk.com
August 13, 2025 at 11:54 PM
Y'all should check out my colleague Seth's ACW blog post on the Iskander-M ballistic missile!
Turns out some of its maneuvers may be wholly random to bamboozle defenses
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
Turns out some of its maneuvers may be wholly random to bamboozle defenses
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
Reposted by Sam Lair
A lot of technical assessments of Iran’s nuclear program feel rushed. There’s an overreliance on fuel cycle basics and projections built on major unknowns while overlooking domestic factors eg institutional disruption, procurement challenges, and acute paranoia.
June 29, 2025 at 4:35 PM
A lot of technical assessments of Iran’s nuclear program feel rushed. There’s an overreliance on fuel cycle basics and projections built on major unknowns while overlooking domestic factors eg institutional disruption, procurement challenges, and acute paranoia.
Reposted by Sam Lair
MDA FY26 procurement requests:
🔶 37 THAADs
🔶12 SM-3 IIAs
According to recent work by @slair.bsky.social the US Army might have used 39ish THAADs in defense of Israel. So this figure might count for the replacements and gives some credibility to Sam's figures.
🔶 37 THAADs
🔶12 SM-3 IIAs
According to recent work by @slair.bsky.social the US Army might have used 39ish THAADs in defense of Israel. So this figure might count for the replacements and gives some credibility to Sam's figures.
June 26, 2025 at 1:19 AM
MDA FY26 procurement requests:
🔶 37 THAADs
🔶12 SM-3 IIAs
According to recent work by @slair.bsky.social the US Army might have used 39ish THAADs in defense of Israel. So this figure might count for the replacements and gives some credibility to Sam's figures.
🔶 37 THAADs
🔶12 SM-3 IIAs
According to recent work by @slair.bsky.social the US Army might have used 39ish THAADs in defense of Israel. So this figure might count for the replacements and gives some credibility to Sam's figures.
Reposted by Sam Lair
Ooh, new document collection from @nsarchive.bsky.social (1400 documents on the DNSA database, but with free sample documents on the post) illuminates the history of U.S. nuclear nonproliferation policy between 1969 and 1977, including negotiations with Iran and intel on South Korea
🗃️
🗃️
History of U.S. Nuclear Nonproliferation Policy, 1969-1977, Detailed in New Declassified Documents Collection
Washington, D.C., June 25, 2025 – During August 1976 talks with the Shah of Iran over the sale of U.S. nuclear reactors, U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger “made it clear that reprocessing [spent...
nsarchive.gwu.edu
June 25, 2025 at 1:25 PM
Ooh, new document collection from @nsarchive.bsky.social (1400 documents on the DNSA database, but with free sample documents on the post) illuminates the history of U.S. nuclear nonproliferation policy between 1969 and 1977, including negotiations with Iran and intel on South Korea
🗃️
🗃️
Reposted by Sam Lair
"It depends enormously on the type of rock."
Why America's giant bunker-busting bombs may have failed to reach their target
Reaching Iran's most fortified nuclear enrichment site is a challenge, even for the world's biggest conventional weapons.
www.npr.org
June 25, 2025 at 11:50 AM
"It depends enormously on the type of rock."
Reposted by Sam Lair
Based on videos taken in Jordan, @slair.bsky.social was able to identify all of Israel's missile defense sites, determine the interceptor type based on their burn-time and then estimate the number of interceptors fired. A tour-de-force.
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
Exhaustion and Inflection: Estimating Interceptor Expenditures in the Israel-Iran Conflict
Following Israel’s twelve-day bombing campaign against Iran’s leaders, nuclear facilities and missile program, two key questions have been how deep is [...]
www.armscontrolwonk.com
June 25, 2025 at 12:15 AM
Based on videos taken in Jordan, @slair.bsky.social was able to identify all of Israel's missile defense sites, determine the interceptor type based on their burn-time and then estimate the number of interceptors fired. A tour-de-force.
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
Reposted by Sam Lair
It's really incredible how clearly one can make out the locations and interceptor types. The 39 THAAD rounds alone cost $495 million.
June 25, 2025 at 12:19 AM
It's really incredible how clearly one can make out the locations and interceptor types. The 39 THAAD rounds alone cost $495 million.
I've worked up an assessment of U.S. and Israeli missile defense interceptor expenditures since June 13
Based on video evidence AT LEAST, 39 THAAD, 34 Arrow-3, & ~9 Arrow-2s have been used. For more on the methodology, ABM sites in Israel, and implications, check out the article
Based on video evidence AT LEAST, 39 THAAD, 34 Arrow-3, & ~9 Arrow-2s have been used. For more on the methodology, ABM sites in Israel, and implications, check out the article
June 25, 2025 at 12:42 AM
I've worked up an assessment of U.S. and Israeli missile defense interceptor expenditures since June 13
Based on video evidence AT LEAST, 39 THAAD, 34 Arrow-3, & ~9 Arrow-2s have been used. For more on the methodology, ABM sites in Israel, and implications, check out the article
Based on video evidence AT LEAST, 39 THAAD, 34 Arrow-3, & ~9 Arrow-2s have been used. For more on the methodology, ABM sites in Israel, and implications, check out the article
Reposted by Sam Lair
For everyone being supremely confident that we can definitely detect and strike any future clandestine enrichment hall, let me remind you that North Korea built an entire enrichment cascade at Yongbyon and the IC completely missed it.
June 24, 2025 at 8:59 PM
For everyone being supremely confident that we can definitely detect and strike any future clandestine enrichment hall, let me remind you that North Korea built an entire enrichment cascade at Yongbyon and the IC completely missed it.